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uncle gromit Jul 22, 2010 6:27pm | Post# 21

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HI Tradpat,

U still holding Euro/USD long?

Eyeing USD/JPY.

Possible higher swing low. Would have liked to see a positive close PB. May get a retrace on the pin if a base is in place. Time will tell.
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tradpat Jul 22, 2010 6:52pm | Post# 22

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HI Tradpat,

U still holding Euro/USD long?

Eyeing USD/JPY.

Possible higher swing low. Would have liked to see a positive close PB. May get a retrace on the pin if a base is in place. Time will tell.
Hi gromit

No. I already closed E-U.
I am watching it for a break 1.300 and candlestick above EMA8.

Similarly I am waiting for a break on TL on U-J. Based on S Nixon's PA, the candlestick is rather closed to TL, and so avoid trading.

Happy pipping.

tpat
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highlander2 Jul 22, 2010 7:19pm | Post# 23

The usd/jpy, is a FAKEY setup, that is a false break of an inside bar. anyone who went short on the break of yesterdays inside bar is now getting screwed over, and will probably stop out, i think a pop up is likely, im not going to take the trade because of the trend. However i think this has legs, good luck.

tradpat Jul 22, 2010 9:17pm | Post# 24

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Hope your G-U is profiting, highlander.
I am monitoring it again for long when the candlestick is above MA.

My gold went against me. It now looks in consolidation. Pending the PA formation to take the next move.

tpat
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uncle gromit Jul 24, 2010 4:20am | Post# 25

USD/JPY
 
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Buy entry filled overnight Thursday.
Stop now at break even.
+55 so far.
Open target.
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highlander2 Jul 24, 2010 5:06am | Post# 26

Buy entry filled overnight Thursday.
Stop now at break even.
+55 so far.
Open target.
Good work, i didnt take this, but i had a feeling it would come off, now lets hope it goes all the way to your TP.

uncle gromit Jul 24, 2010 5:23am | Post# 27

Good work, i didnt take this, but i had a feeling it would come off, now lets hope it goes all the way to your TP.
Thanks Highlander.

Such a low risk trade with a pullback entry. No guarantee it would get filled though. Now that it has, and the fact I can not lose, its a watch and wait. 1st problem area above is double day lows at 88.00.

highlander2 Jul 24, 2010 6:34am | Post# 28

yes the pull back is always best when it happens, can be frustrating though at times, but i think its the best method in the long run.

Can i ask what your strategy is for BE stops?
up untill now i have basically "set and forget" trades but this is running into trouble at the moment. I had 190 pips this week that turned into 2 losers, this will need to be changed, i will probably have to go back to moving to BE at 1x risk, especially since i will be increasing my lot sizes in a few weeks.

thanks.

tradpat Jul 24, 2010 9:51am | Post# 29

SHORT U-CAD
 
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Hi

I short U-CAD based on PA (arrows) and RL.
It may bounce up at SL next week?

Gromit & Highlander
Any comment on setting SL &TP? (I am weak on this subject)

Thanks
tpat
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steroidman Jul 24, 2010 10:41am | Post# 30

Interesting.

uncle gromit Jul 24, 2010 12:33pm | Post# 31

BE stops
 
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yes the pull back is always best when it happens, can be frustrating though at times, but i think its the best method in the long run.

Can i ask what your strategy is for BE stops?
up untill now i have basically "set and forget" trades but this is running into trouble at the moment. I had 190 pips this week that turned into 2 losers, this will need to be changed, i will probably have to go back to moving to BE at 1x risk, especially since i will be increasing my lot sizes in a few weeks.

thanks.
Since I am long, this can only be considered a counter trend trade. At this stage I do not know if the potential double bottom will turn into a full blown reversal. For that reason I will move to BE at the earliest possible stage whilst still giving the trade every chance to move in my favour. As potential blocks to price lay not far above protecting capital is vital. On a with trend trade or retracement to a main trend I can use slightly easier MM as the odds will be more in my favour.
When assessing the criteria for a trade I always work backwards. A brief overview follows :-

1) Will I be with trend or countertrend?
2) If I take this trade where will my stop go?
3) How large will the stop be?
4) How far away is the 1st potential TP area? This is critical. Be realistic.
5) Am I getting at least 2 to 1 on my money if price reaches my target?

Finally have a clear plan of action if price does not move far enough or quickly enough in your favour. Adjust your stop accordingly.

Hope this helps.
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uncle gromit Jul 24, 2010 12:37pm | Post# 32

TP and SL
 
Hi

I short U-CAD based on PA (arrows) and RL.
It may bounce up at SL next week?

Gromit & Highlander
Any comment on setting SL &TP? (I am weak on this subject)

Thanks
tpat
tpat,

Consider working backwards. See my post regarding USD/JPY.
Hope this helps.

tradpat Jul 24, 2010 12:51pm | Post# 33

Favor to long on U-J
 
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Hi gromit

Agreed. I see it is a counter trend because candlesticks still below MA55+89 & TL. (Pls. correct me if I am wrong)

I will take long next week because
- When necessary MACD is used to see divergence signal, as shown.
- The pin bar
- Double bottom sign

tpat
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tradpat Jul 24, 2010 12:53pm | Post# 34

tpat,

Consider working backwards. See my post regarding USD/JPY.
Hope this helps.
OK. I will try, gromit. Thanks, tpat (got to chow... zzz... 12:53 a.m. in Malaysia)

tradpat Jul 25, 2010 11:51am | Post# 35

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Hi

IMO, U-CHF has the similar PA as U-J.

tpat
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tradpat Jul 25, 2010 12:12pm | Post# 36

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Hi Traders

I have a long on A-U based on break.
P.S. As I am a newbie, I welcome comments for improvement.

tpat
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deepsouth Jul 25, 2010 12:21pm | Post# 37

UJ CT setup
 
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Hi Tradpat, I like the discussion here on the Daily charts. My view is that UJ is a CT trade because as you mentioned clear divergence on MACD. Another reason I will trade against the trend here is that price action is in an area of weekly demand (green lines). I do not sell in an area of weekly demand or buy in an area of weekly supply. I will wait for a break above the 87.60 area, a pullback and enter near the demand line or on very strong bullish PA. Just my 2 cents.

Deep
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steroidman Jul 25, 2010 12:23pm | Post# 38

I bought the US/CHHF at the absolute bottom, was watching it like a vulture for quite a while. The UJ is a tougher one, I haven't done ANYTHING with it yet. But sure am watching it closely.

tradpat Jul 25, 2010 7:59pm | Post# 39

Hi Tradpat, I like the discussion here on the Daily charts. My view is that UJ is a CT trade because as you mentioned clear divergence on MACD. Another reason I will trade against the trend here is that price action is in an area of weekly demand (green lines). I do not sell in an area of weekly demand or buy in an area of weekly supply. I will wait for a break above the 87.60 area, a pullback and enter near the demand line or on very strong bullish PA. Just my 2 cents.

Deep
Hi deepsouth

I appreciate your inputs.
Pls. do drop by often to advise.

What MAs you?
I will try to pick up weekly chart analysis like yours.
You are very good.

tpat

tradpat Jul 25, 2010 8:04pm | Post# 40

I bought the US/CHHF at the absolute bottom, was watching it like a vulture for quite a while. The UJ is a tougher one, I haven't done ANYTHING with it yet. But sure am watching it closely.
Hi steriodman

Good for your U-Chf.
I already long U-J and U-Chf this morning.


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