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pipEASY Jul 9, 2010 6:33pm | Post# 1

Building an equity millipede
 
Good morning all

A warm welcome to everyone here. Hope you are all safe and sound wherever you may be.

Before I begin, I wish to let all readers well aware that the purpose of this threads existence is of positive intentions. So please respect the fact that Im here because im willing to contribute.

I do not wish to participate in any ego-measuring contest, babysitting, or downright arguments. No need to prove myself to anyone. What is offered is what you will get if accepted as is.

I welcome questions and I will answer your question if I find that it will also benefit other readers.

Unfortunately, I find the necessity for the above points mentioned as there is blatant amount of testosterone being thrown around this forum. There is simply too much debris amongst the vast number of posts and i cant help but wonder if our initial good intentions is getting buried amongst the junk.

Moving on.

pipEASY Jul 9, 2010 6:34pm | Post# 2

Im a live trader. I have been trading live for 2 years. This is relatively short amount of time to be considered successful which I whole-heartedly agree. However, with all bias aside and after reviewing my trading strategy (which I happen to review at a constant basis), I can say with a degree of certainty that I will be profitable for the many years to come.

I have owned and managed import/export/distribution companies in my time, so it was no surprise when I phased into currency trading. When outsourcing overseas contact the foreign exchange rate plays a vital role as it has a direct impact on profit margin and the competitive edge. In a sentence, I had to forecast an expectancy of rise/fall in the price of goods in lieu with growth/decline of inventory demand. I had a constant tab on politics, and economics of both the country I reside and the country of our interest.

Exchange rate effects the overall operation of an import/export business. I have imported from surgical bandages, plastic bags, furniture, cars, electronics, sunglasses and much more. In the past, my company was outsourcing various types of surgical bandages from Taiwan to supply a number of hospitals. For a lengthy period of time, Taiwan dollar declined against the rise of Australian dollar. I did not focus on daily price changes but as long as I was buying bandages cheaper than the previous year I was happy. I was very content to see the price of bandages getting cheaper by yearly. During my tenure as the main operating executive of a large i/e/d company my main responsibility was basically buying goods as/when cheap as possible and continue buying them cheap or cheaper. Now when I look back I smile at noticing that all I was doing was following the yearly trend and the bandages I was purchasing before is now my positions in forex. It is an uncanny resemblance in my perspective.

Moving on.

pipEASY Jul 9, 2010 6:37pm | Post# 3

Thank you for your interest so far. Hope my life stories havenít bored you however I find it necessary to reveal enough of me even though I feel exposed. I must admit im slightly reclusive and coming this far is out of ordinary for me.

Running a business has its ups and downs but the difficulties I had when I first started with forex was a completely different stress on a different level. At least in a business you have a reliable counsel in which you pay for advice however in forex there is advice everywhere and most of them completely free. Whenever I hear free advice I make sure my credit card is tucked away and my scepticism turned on high.

When I started in forex, I sought after the most expensive advice. Itís a habit that has grown on me. After all I could receive my forex trading was nowhere profitable. Capital wasnít a problem for me so I started off live trading as soon as I worked out the buttons from demo. I kept my lot size relatively small.

From what I say might be already know to many and the obvious however traders fail cause they donít action the obvious. Smoking kills, then quit. Action the obvious.

I quickly compiled a list of things that didnít work for me:

 

  1. Indicators, especially moving average crosses that indicates entry/exit.
  2. Divergences
  3. Smaller time frames
  4. Advice from forums
  5. Advice from mass media

There was just too much information for my head to get around. I nosed around from forum to forum, post to post, looking for the perfect set of indicators that gave me entry and exits. Then I knew entry is not important.

There are no guarantees in life. You can never control your future but the future will control you. With me, I find the indicators/systems more obtrusive to the clarity of the bigger picture in forex. Im sure there are many successful traders with the perfect set of indicators tweeked at the best setting possible and you have my respect for something that I couldnít simply accomplish.

I wasnít in a rush to make money as I already have a very comfortable lifestyle. The most likely reason I didnít give up in forex was probably the resemblance to what I do at my own company, which in return gave me confidence.

I stopped looking for daily/weekly profits. Traders focus too much on instant fulfilment. I also stopped using stop losses for most part of my trading. During my unsuccessful periods, I find that stop losses confirms my loss and just giving money to the brokers. I still use stop losses (sometimes) but they are much further apart. I can do this cause im comfortable and confident with my trades.

If I asked you, Ďlets play a game. Everytime you roll this dice, you need to pay $100. This is the reward: you win $1000 eveytime you roll 6 and lose your $100 on 1,2,3,4,5. Would you play?í

Some will say no, cause they cant see the bigger picture. Looking at indicators probably forecasting the next 2 or 3 throws.

Smart ones will say yes. Obvious reasons. But, how long will you last? Can you handle streaks of 20 or more losses? Perhaps you have the will to handle the stress but maybe not the capital?

I found my dice game. It wasnít in any forum or paid advice. It was just doing what I was already doing in my business.

Moving on.


pipEASY Jul 9, 2010 6:37pm | Post# 4

My contribution wont sway many traders and it will be interesting to watch how this all works out. But if you are open-minded like I was when I first traded, then you too will receive a blueprint to a trading plan that guarantees to be beneficial of enormous proportions.

Currently, I’m holding a number of positions across several pairs. This is live trading (all numbers/dates are approximate so please don’t hold it against me):

*All my positions have always been 2 standard lots each.

 

  1. GBP/JPY – 14 positions; 4 surviving from around 160.000, August 2009. 8 surviving from around 155.000, August 2009. 2 surviving from around 147.500, January 2010
  2. EUR/USD – 21 positions; 10 surviving from around 1.46600, December 2009. 11 surviving from around 1.41100, January 2010

I do have other positions however not as large as above. You can work out my profits if I closed them now. Also this is all profit as few of the ‘legs’ I have closed out in the space of months, which covers most of my total losses in establishing these positions.

These results are far from impressive however it pleases me greatly to know the return on my initial capital.

When I mentioned ‘the obvious’ and traders not following the obvious are this: The only thing obvious about forex markets is the trends. It pays you or destroys you.

For me, monthly trend is the main trend. I tend to look at last 1-3 years of movement.

My main and primary objective is building a pyramid of positions in lieu with the main monthly trend of the previous years. I enter from daily charts under guidance of weekly trend at market open (asian) and hope that the position survives the fluctuations of the day and transforms into another leg on my equity millipede.

More often than preferred, the daily position does not survive the price action of the day and most likely end up as a –30 pip loss (this is based on eur/usd). This does not worry me as im most interested in movements that start from the beginning of the day and charge forward following the intended weekly/monthly trend. Also it is comforting to know with a degree of certainty that when I decide to conclude all my positions after maturity, just a few of my bigger legs from my equity millipede will cover losses and the remaining as profits.

I do not care about ‘moderate’ small losses that occur when trying to establish my positions that will survive. As long as I do not try many times in one single day (and this is very important). This is also similar to my business, as I need to order an inventory before sourcing out distribution. Taking pain for gain.

If today is going to be a bear candle then whereabouts is the higher price? If we are in a downtrend (which is also in lieu with down weekly trend) and (unknowingly) today is going to be another down day. THEN tomorrow when we look back today, where is the most likely place for a position to survive?

It is at the near the top… Near the open of the daily candle. This insures that you catch the major move of the day + highest probability that the position will survive the pullbacks of next day (and the next 2-3 years hopefully).

A position that survives for extended weeks, months turns into a tremendous profit and you will be very pleased that you risked a very small fraction of its gigantic return to establish that position. I cant help but smile.

You need to allow the time for a caterpillar to turn into a butterfly.

As mentioned above, I do enter at the very start of market with a hard stop loss. Also I have a very simple 5,10 ema moving averages to give me clues on the strength of trend and the likely hood of mass traders entry. I despise any system based on sma/ema crosses but I would like to know the strength of the move by looking at the space between the moving averages. Also a 200 ema as a long term moving s/r and that’s it for my indicators but I have few more tricks for entries.

Moving on.


MPP Jul 9, 2010 6:43pm | Post# 5

BUMP

Whilst i've yet to see the direction of this thread, i note with interest the threads you have been to and the past discussions you have had.

I hope this thread will continue along those lines

Best of pips

MPP

ozziedave Jul 9, 2010 9:18pm | Post# 6

Let The Man Speak....
 
Come on guys....

Let the man speak, it's his thread. Like anything else if you don't like what you read you can always change the channel.

pipEASY Jul 9, 2010 10:22pm | Post# 7

Amazing, i just spent good 30minutes typing the next post and the site went down and it has perished in peril.

pipEASY Jul 9, 2010 11:14pm | Post# 8

Continuing on with the entries.

Entry is discretionary however I weigh the importance of the survivability of a position as most important which is near the top of the daily candle in a weekly down trend or bottom of the daily candle in an uptrend.

My hard stop gets hit often and when they are hit this signals for me to watch the market for another re-attempt. I will do a maximum of 2, 3 (rarely) re-entry per day and this is based mostly on support/resistance, reliable price patterns, and breakouts. Price that needs to be broken out is my favourite. Although I will go with the flow, Im biased towards my main weekly trend. Hopefully when you are ready to trade, you are efficient with the usage of support/resistance, few reliable price patterns and know the difference between a good/not so good breakout setups. This is entirely another story and you will need to do your homework.

I have had few positions placed on same day that has survived nearly a year. The price never came back to its entry. However, I will never try too hard to get a positive position in every day because most positions that does survive a day might not survive a month, or even 2 months. Can you handle that? Losing streaks of 20 or more.

What i say next will be interesting. Even though I had satisfying trades with great result I was looking at ways to enter more because I thought more positions meant more profit. However increased risk doesnt necessarily increase profit.

Once again, I scouraged the forums, magazines, and few seminars for another method. Back then I thought more methods meant more positions which hopefully meant more profit. To be honest, I find forums to be more stressful than the market itself. This endeavour cost me alot of unnecessary money. I stopped searching and just continued what was working.

My step down from a trader to a searcher gave me a full scope of the frustration and the struggle as I can test both sides of the world. Things are overly complicated than they are. You need to stop listening and throw out that guide book. Fortuantely I had it easier as I had alot more than necessary capital and a business that secured me financially and also taught me to be a trend trader before even stepping foot in the arena.

With all honesty, forex trading is simple. You can ask million questions on the forum and get burned, ravaged by the poster after you till no end. Stop, calm down, listen, and look for the obvious.

Moving on, and nearly at the end..

tradpat Jul 10, 2010 12:06am | Post# 9

Come on guys....

Let the man speak, it's his thread. Like anything else if you don't like what you read you can always change the channel.
Bingo... U R Rite!

pipEASY Jul 10, 2010 12:48am | Post# 10

There is more to it than the bulge. I believe this was one of the lines i used when i was dating my wife.

I say the same here. Even though my posts lack any charts, defined set entry/exit points, but there is definitely more here than the bulge. And all this is definitely a trading strategy nonetheless. For the intellectual traders they will pickup how/why my method works. It is obvious.

I feel no loss at sharing but disappointed after reviewing my posts that i may have not conveyed my strategies properly in depth.

However I do know that most searchers are looking for a system with numbers telling them what to do and less words. They wish to think less, but ironically you are at the right place.

Moving on.

pipEASY Jul 10, 2010 9:57pm | Post# 11

Good morning all

It is a beautiful sunday morning here.

Looking back at yesterday's posts; I have covered my main trading principle and my entry strategy. I would like to touch base on what you have read so far and hope to give you a different but positive look at what I meant.

1. Position trading
Position trading is as exciting as intraday, swing. I find it much more exciting. Majority of traders are seeking the rush to be in the action constantly. They like to execute orders, close orders with profit, make an excel spreadsheet and enter their weekly profit, log into forum and boast their demo accomplishments and henceforth. And to add further damage, keen avid new traders will soak their comments and 'adapt' it. Now at the end of the day if they both find success then it was all worthwhile but you will find them sitting here behind their so called 'already known and preached principles' just garnishing in attention but not necessarily contributing positively. Call me cynic or realist?

Position trading has some of the best risk:reward. You actually risk much less for a greater reward. Yes, we do not execute as many orders as some new traders would prefer but if its excitement these new traders are all looking for then it is very exciting to see my legs on my millipede grow as the time goes. Once you shift your trading to 'longer' time frame you will find trading less stressful and more meaningful. And please dont stay on demo too long. You make progress but also in parallel you are growing a set of habits that will be a big surprise for its inefficiency once you start live. I have tested both sides of the world.

Also, I believe there is a common belief that position trading requires alot of starting capital. I was planning to address this on a separate post however will address it here. NO, you dont require a large starting capital. If you want to know, and if i were to suggest for the new traders;

USD $5000 for 4-6 positions @ $1 per pip (0.1 lot size)

The above is very realistic and very achievable however dont quit your day job yet. Try and keep a few thousands dollar in your savings account for backup and most importantly psychological safety.

Example of a common scenario;
You wait. Then you wait some more. You notice on monthly chart that gbp/jpy is dropping going down (its not hard, you look at last 10-15 candles preferably or less), you switch to weekly and see that price is above/near/just below the 200ema. I prefer the price to be somewhat 'near' to the 200ema. You enter on daily chart at beginning of market with hard stop loss (this is not a golden rule and as i mentioned in earlier posts, entry is discretionary) or do your homework and work out a low risk entry somewhere 'near' the open.

Moving on, if this position survives the fluctuation of the day, move the s/l to breakeven on the following day. You now have a leg on your millipede. BUT, you will find that often this hard earned leg will die some days, weeks later. I will be very suspicious if a leg dies months later... Something has gone wrong with the main trend. If you enter in a good trend you improve the chance that the leg will survive. And we like our leg soldier to be breathing and working for us.

Do this until you have 4-5 legs and preferably stop adding. Let time go past.

6 months later..

You will find avg pip per position will be 1200 (hypothetically)

1200 pip x 5 positions = 6000 pips. $1 per pip will be $6000

However, $6000 wouldnt be all profit as you definitely had to endure few small losses trying to establish your positions. Lets take off 1500 pips which is alot more than probably required but hey, this is an example.

So total net profit will be $4500. Hmmm... that would be almost 100% return on capital..... (in 6 months)

And this is a very sensible estimation

Im planning to close out 3 of my legs in gbp/jpy if it doesnt continue downtrend on weekly in the next week or two cause i dont like the looks of the current market. Weekly downtrend from the beginning of the year was not even great. And even in poor trends like this.. it is very profitable

Probably close out my medium sized legs; 3 positions x 1500 pip = 4500 pip total @ $20 per pip.

I entered all 3 positions in the space of 2 days and was fortunate enough to catch an eye-popping momentum (this could also be another 'way' for you to enter). I had zero loss to accumulate these 3 positions. My risk:reward? Could have added more but then again..

I will be pocketing $90000 for 6 months. Sometimes I wish I was 20 years younger doing this...

Sorry deb..

Get the gist?

Moving on.

pipEASY Jul 11, 2010 2:48am | Post# 12

Good afternoon all

Hope you are spending time with your loved ones. The older I get, I find the bond you have with your loves ones are so very important. It is not the waterfront penthouses, fast cars or victoria secret model girlfriends but the sentimental links you preserve with the ones you dearly love and care. There are plenty of times when money does come across relationships but manage them well and keep money out of equation as much as possible.

Continuing on with my previous post. Today, we were touching base on what I posted yesterday. Point 1 was about the importance and the power of long term trend trading (position trading).

Now for point 2.

2. Entries

Yesterday, I mentioned in my post that I open a position at the start of the new daily candle (which for me is open of asian market, 9am sydney time). I believe the common myth about trading the asian market is a big no no. Some of the reason why traders will avoid asian market is that most movements happen during UK business hours. I agree. I would also agree more if I was a pure intraday trader looking for great bursts of momentum or a 5 minute scalper who needs the participation of the greater number of traders. I consider myself standing above all this (in a non-egotistical way).

The most important thing to position building happens from entry. First you must be sure about the weekly trend. Its very simple. Open weekly chart and see what happened in the last 20-40 bars. Moving down? Then its down. Moving up? Then its up. Weekly trend is not going to change just because you finally arrived at the scene with a demo account. Please get over it, you're not that big.

All im interested is the 'area' of the daily candle where the chance for my position to survive not just todays price action but tomorrows and hopefully for the next 2-3 years. We want price to never come back to our entry. Where do you think this will happen? It will happen near the open of the candle. But sometimes the movement is so powerful that on some days any position on any area of the candle would have survived. Consider them a huge addition to your profits. With practice you will know with a certain degree of certainty when these candles will occur

These days I continue to enter at the beginning of each new daily candle but not all the time. Experience has shown me that some areas are already 'exhausted' for any new legs to be created. Something like this just comes from experience (and good reference from weekly charts). There are no set rules.

Furthermore, some days I will use a hard stop 70 pips for jpy cross or a 30/40 pips for eur/usd but some days I know that stop loss is not necessary. BUT I will put an alert in my mt4 to message me instantly to my cell phone at extreme movements. Situation varies and so does my actions.

Occasionally, when I choose to monitor a uk session and I see a great setup forming. I look at s/r, trendlines and will enter at a minimal risk and as soon as it moves positive i will move my stop loss to breakeven and walk away.

My favourite is areas where price needs to breakout. This is an obvious statement, and yet alot of traders dont action the obvious. Price doesnt want to breakout but needs to breakout. I will go with the eventual flow but im biased towards main weekly/monthly trend. I request that you look into breakout.

If I were to give a hard advice for the intraday orientated traders is to buy when the price is above todays open and sell when the price is below todays open. This way you are in line with the trend.

Intraday movement doesnt interest me. What I am interested is the open price of the daily candle.

Conclusion is that I enter on the open of new daily candle towards the main weekly trend however, i do look at 5/10ema to see if the price is sensible and whether it is a new momentum or phasing out/retrace. I also keep in mind s/r and trendlines but do not entirely focus on anything particular. One thing I want to be damn sure is my main weekly trend.

Cant explain it any further, you must do your own research from here.

Entries is like learning to swim. You need to practice and one day you will realize that you were so much better than few weeks ago. It will come to you.

Moving on.

MPP Jul 11, 2010 4:06am | Post# 13

Amazing, i just spent good 30minutes typing the next post and the site went down and it has perished in peril.
when i have big posts to make i set them out in a word doc first for this reason - then copy paste them in

great read so far - got some catching up to do with your post - will try to keep up

Dopey Jul 11, 2010 4:48am | Post# 14

If I were to give a hard advice for the intraday orientated traders is to buy when the price is above todays open and sell when the price is below todays open. This way you are in line with the trend.
I live by this. I may miss some trades, but I never get my ass kicked around by the market trying to time turnarounds.

Nice posts.

FXSurfer Jul 11, 2010 5:11am | Post# 15

Refreshingly sensible thread.

Wish there were more like it!

All the best!


pipEASY Jul 11, 2010 8:31am | Post# 16

Good evening all

Thank you for the warm remarks. It makes the effort worthwhile.

There are terrible events happening across the globe; environmental, political and biological. Let us not forget that we are fortunate individuals to have an opportunity to even discuss matters like forex at our leisure. Unfortunately my children will never grasp the full scope of their fortunate existence as they never had any insecurities.

Hence, you will never forget your learning phase in your trading career. It will outshine in your memory everytime you open your platform.

It is now Sunday evening and I must admit I have enjoyed contributing to the forum this past weekend. I feel obliged to help traders as I also received such unconditional help.

I have yet to explaine other subjects like; money management, psychology, exit options, mid term exits, profiting short countertrends. And I will re-attempt on another weekend.

Till then stay safe.

Graeme

js5020 Jul 12, 2010 12:31am | Post# 17

Good to see something using a chart beyond 4 hrs and not being leveraged to the hilt.

pipEASY Jul 12, 2010 4:54am | Post# 18

The power of participation.

This is my next subject. It flows concurrently with my points on entry. In my previous posts I have explained what I perceived as the reason why entry is important however it shouldnt be the only focus of your trading.

Alot of traders tend to focus 'pinpoint picture perfect entries' and 'razor sharp profit producing exits.' My personal take on entry is that as long as you clearly define the main momentum and have the ability/skill to see where you currently stand in that momentum this will give you the first reasons to why you should enter/exit. You need to read the road signs.

I understand entry/exit plays an important role if you aim for constant 80pip take profit with 40pip stop loss. You are looking too closely. Take a step back. What you conceive as 80pip profit is only a ripple in the ocean and you have just stopped yourself looking at the bigger picture and settled with just entree. Unknowingly you might still be focusing too much on todays profit or this weeks profit.

You are forgiven for sloppier entries when you start but as long as your position is towards the main trend you are already in good shape. Entries will improve over time. As far as entries are concerned, we want minimal risk entries (do your homework) that will give that position an opportunity to reach its full potential hopefully 8000 pips later.

And you will reap exponential rewards if you let it happen. Nobody knows where the market will be heading and this shouldnt hinder you in anyway. You need to participate to what is happening. You need to be in the market to make it happen. If its up then BUY, if its down then SELL. Yes, you have heard it before but do you know what it means and how to implement it?

Every month I receive an email from my regional offices showing me how much it would cost to buy another 100,000 units of a particular good to be imported. I take three looks. One look at the current price i need to pay and two looks at previous prices i paid before which is price one month ago and price one year ago. If its cheaper I place an order and sign off on the cheque and thats that. If its not then I dont. Then I dont sit there and twidle my thumbs and look exasperated. I ring the appropriate regional office and tell them to try export more of our goods to that particular country. If this blip of price fluctuation continues for months then I would shift my operational views with that particular country from importing to exporting.

I request that you think about my story. You might learn something.

Currently I have bundles of positions. Just like my business I categorise positions accordingly even though they may be from same pair of currency. Each bundle is different to each other and I treat each bundle as each individual entity. As long as that particular bundle exits completely with profit then its mission accomplished. I have bundles of positions that are sell and bundles of positions that are buy. They are not offsetting each other as you might perceived to be. Yes they may be from the same capital pool but I treat them as two different scenarios.

To help you understand, in some weekly trend, you will find that there are corrections. And this correction can last from days to weeks even. Even though last 8 months was down, the price right now is telling you up. Go with the flow and participate. Be in the action. You can speculate on the sideline with your certified indicator/system or be in the game and bring home the trophy and the prom queen home.

Review a week or two later (or more preferably) and you will see that your new legs becomes a solid profit making machine. This set of new legs is a different group to your main group of positions on the main trend. Keep your bias on the downtrend as this was your main trend for the last 8 months but you will have opportunities to make profit on the correction. Just like my export and import business.

Once the trend resumes, your main group of positions will continue producing profits and you have opportunities to add positions to this group once again with greater probability of surviving.

When I comeback from my dinner arrangement I will try and answer the PMs you kindly sent. Thank you

Moving on.

pipEASY Jul 12, 2010 8:44am | Post# 19

Good evening all

I like to mention something that should be the basis of your thoughts when you read about a system/method.

Many system/methods that claim xx% win rate concerns me on several factors.

First, how did the poster arrive at such xx%? I have seen scores of systems that claim anywhere from 50% to 90%. Some even lower. To justify any short expectancy the poster will then quote their r:r to prove that their numbers show profit. Profit is not the problem but the reliability of such numbers.

For example, there is a popular game called baccarat at most casinos these days. Its a simple game where you either bet the banker to win the next round of hand or the players side. Basically a coin toss but much more elaborate. I happen to have extensive knowledge in statistics (especially in gambling) and nothing below is conjured. This is hard facts.

In regards to the odds,

If you bet on banker to win, then your chance of winning is (roughly) 49%
If you bet on player to win, then your chance of winning is (roughly) 49%

When you win, they pay you 1:1.

Bet $50 on banker and you won, then you receive your $50 and then your win of $50. Total $100 back

So, either side you place the bet you are on the losing side already because you are not 50%. This is possible because casinos implement rules such as if banker wins on 6 then its only half win or other various small measures. These small measures ensure the casino to always have the upper hand and win rate of 51%. SO the difference is 2%.

Even though casinos only make 2% of all gross bets they still make millions every year. This is possible because the turnover of hands is quick and in the tens of thousands per day across dozens of tables.

Now that I have your mind thinking. Lets go back to our example.

A system posts 50% success rate and recommends risk/reward to be 1:2. This is still fantastic. If this was possible in casino, it will shutdown in a day.

So it looks good on paper, but here is where everything goes wrong. According to the system rules you could only realistically enter 10-20 times a week. Could be more but this is just example. To achieve this you need to consistently watch the market most of the time and be ready to execute your order. Now all this is fine as long as it works out at the end. BUT do you know how many 'rounds' of investment is required to prove such edge? It is in the tens of thousands. You actually need tens of thousands, even hundred thousands to prove an edge. Because the paramater is infinite you need to burn thousands of rounds to give a hard number and consider it as the edge.

The fluctuations are huge. After 500 'rounds' you could be well into profit but another 2000 'rounds' later you find yourself minus. Smart readers are already aware of this and implement sound r:r. But please take a step back and ask how long did the poster really try their system before posting on forum. They claim 50% win rate from what? 6 months of live testing? 40 attempt a week? That is still only 1000 times. You cannot claim that you have a system that works 50% of the time with results after only 1000 tries. Unknowingly you may be more or less gambling in the markets.

Fortunately, if the same poster turns out to be a successful trader. His/her success will be the result of having a defined edge in the market and the other saving grace will be their sound r:r. But what they will find (if they adhere to the same system for 10 years) is that the claim they made 10 years ago about the win rate wasnt even close (and unnecessary). They may be profitable after 10 years but it wasnt the success rate but their personal edge in the market. Something to consider closely.

You only need to be sure of only one thing in the market to make money.

Moving on.

SkyzerFX Jul 12, 2010 10:05am | Post# 20

This is only theory. If there is any win system out there, then Robot

can be implemented based on that and then you sleep while robot makes $.

So? more likely there is no winning strategy at all, other than

Insider information, that's what bosses on the Wall Street using, otherwise

it's just a gambling. Cause really, placing so much money on just 10-30 pips

movement is a gambling. What is not gambling: buy EURCHF (on very low margin) and sell when it

hit 1.45-1.50 next year or 2. (just an example)

pipEASY Jul 12, 2010 10:33pm | Post# 21

This is only theory. If there is any win system out there, then Robot

can be implemented based on that and then you sleep while robot makes $.

So? more likely there is no winning strategy at all, other than

Insider information, that's what bosses on the Wall Street using, otherwise

it's just a gambling. Cause really, placing so much money on just 10-30 pips

movement is a gambling. What is not gambling: buy EURCHF (on very low margin) and sell when it

hit 1.45-1.50 next year or 2. (just an example)
I would be more inclined to agree with you.

pipEASY Jul 12, 2010 10:34pm | Post# 22

Im sure there are successful traders doing well on shorter time frame however we can all do just as well and even better with longer approach.

I dont understand why traders shun the idea of long term trading but it is probably because they are looking for immediate solutions to a riddle that has existed for centuries.

Unfortunately, my method will not be favourable to many new traders with boiling young blood. Hope they are persistent enough to go around the block few times and then re-evaluate. Youth and money dont go along well.

Majority of the readers here unfortunately need a new perspective, not necessarily needs to be mine but hopefully from someone who is genuinely doing well and is here to unconditionally add some new perspective.

Most trading system threads starts off with set of pre-defined entry and exits. My method doesnt and it works very well for me.

pipEASY Jul 12, 2010 10:58pm | Post# 23

I have closed one of my bundle of positions on usd/chf.

I personally called this group uc4s and it is one of the smaller groups that I currently hold on this pair.

I started adding positions into group uc4s around first week of june, from 1.15000. Not all on same day or same week.

From june there has been a very good down trend. I was little hesistent at first because april, may on weekly/monthly chart has been a bull run. BUT I took emotion out and went with the flow. I entered with minimal risk and see what would play out. I kept my bias of the downtrend as usd/chf has been down on monthly chart since 1999!

I had a small group called uc3s that took small profit of the 2 months bull run of april and may. Closed out on 3rd week of june.

Coming back to uc4s, I was adding positions very successfully. I hardly had any loss. It was just straight down. If any traders in the last month decided to intraday trade and had any orders for buy they probably had tough time pulling the rabbit out of the hat.

I exited with 11 positions @ 2 standard lot per position, around 1.05100. Its fair amount of money. I kept 2 of the larger positions and moved them to group uc4b and hope they survive for the next 2 years.

One of the reason I closed was the support around 1.04900 and what I consider to be an exhaustion of sellers.

Get the gist?

Moving on.

fugly Jul 13, 2010 4:55am | Post# 24

thx for sharing your method, sort of reminds me of livermore's approach, he wrote about it in his book that to make big money in the stock markets one has to catch the big swings not jump in and out all day. He also says its a mistake to establish an entire position at one go but rather to pyramid into the position as it proves you correct. There's no question about him being a very very successful trader.

However this is worthwhile only for people with a large a/c. Your positions are very impressive but can i ask how much money you started out with.

thx again.

damosdmf Jul 13, 2010 5:05am | Post# 25

why is it only for people with big accounts? you can trend trade with a small account if you time your entries right.

regards damien

pipEASY Jul 13, 2010 5:40am | Post# 26

Good evening all

Thank you for your interest so far. I know there are alot of information from my posts however i find them all relevant. Most likely you are an experienced trader and already know many of the points I illustrate. Hope you will appreciate my efforts at trying to pass on a method that works so well for me in a way that will make you think and adapt to its potential. Im trying to draw a blueprint of my method in your thinking procedure.

My previous post was about my mid term exit on usd/chf. Although I shun the limelight I found it necessary to reveal my exits/profits as this will eventually flow into my next topic: mid term exits.

There is nothing special to mid term exits. You could consider them as locking in the profit or I will consider them 'managing my positions.' Some may even consider as money management but I would like to consider it as position management. To me, position management is simply, managing the set of groups of positions that I control so that I can diversify the reward. Ofcourse I prefer my positions to run 2-3 years for 9000 pips per position for a stupendous return but some weekly trend can change after a year or less. However I can control the flow of the reward and keep the capital balance and equity both increasing.

I exited 11 positions for a large increase in my capital balance and holding 2 of the larger positions to ride the huge monthly trend that started from 1999. This will be my main big group. As you can see Im diversifying my reward.

If the main downtrend continues after correction I will start building again and after an extended period of growth, I will diversify the group by closing few legs to ensure my capital balance keeps growing and moving some legs to the main big group above for a long term growth. This smooths out my equity curve.

I wish I started doing this since 1999 on the usd/chf when the monthly downtrend began. The payout would be in the millions. But its never too late in forex.

Currently I hold $100K+ worth of positions in gbpjpy. I will diversify very soon if price doesnt close below 131.280. But it doesnt matter if it does close below I will most likely still diversify the smaller group for an increase in balance and move any legs to the longer term group in gbpjpy. My main group started mid last year around 159.000 and current price is about 133.500. I will diversify and move remaining legs to this big group. This downtrend of gbpjpy started from mid 2007 and i only joined mid last year. I dont feel missed out in any sense.

$100K+ worth of position is all profit because I was able to diversify earlier this year which covered all my losses. Returns like this is only possible cause I respect and follow the main trend.

Moving on.

carolco Jul 13, 2010 6:00am | Post# 27

Hi. Your point of view is very intersting but I would like to ask You how much does Swap rates affect your trading system..?

pipEASY Jul 13, 2010 6:05am | Post# 28

thx for sharing your method, sort of reminds me of livermore's approach, he wrote about it in his book that to make big money in the stock markets one has to catch the big swings not jump in and out all day. He also says its a mistake to establish an entire position at one go but rather to pyramid into the position as it proves you correct. There's no question about him being a very very successful trader.

However this is worthwhile only for people with a large a/c. Your positions are very impressive but can i ask how much money you started out...
My starting capital was 6 figures. However my capital never went -10%.

I can assure you, large capital is not needed. I have a good example on first page of the thread.

What you will realize is that most short term traders aiming at 1-2% increase per week can also be easily done by entering at a low risk and letting the position grow on the trend.

xman Jul 13, 2010 6:55am | Post# 29

example
 
@PipEasy
Can you find one example and show us on the chart, please?

stevegee58 Jul 13, 2010 7:03am | Post# 30

pipeasy, you mentioned diversifying. Do you look at correlation at all? In other words, if you're already in a EURUSD position would you still consider a USDCHF position even though they're negatively correlated? Having positions in both (say log EU and short UC) is really not diversified due to the negative correlation on average.

pipEASY Jul 13, 2010 7:08am | Post# 31

Hi. Your point of view is very intersting but I would like to ask You how much does Swap rates affect your trading system..?
good question. I will pm you with my reply as I would like to keep the intended flow of my explanation continuous without jumping foward and backwards.

pipEASY Jul 13, 2010 7:11am | Post# 32

@PipEasy
Can you find one example and show us on the chart, please?
yes i will soon. thank you

pipEASY Jul 13, 2010 7:34am | Post# 33

pipeasy, you mentioned diversifying. Do you look at correlation at all? In other words, if you're already in a EURUSD position would you still consider a USDCHF position even though they're negatively correlated? Having positions in both (say log EU and short UC) is really not diversified due to the negative correlation on average.
Good question and unfortunately this will be last for today as the day has taken its toll on me.

Even though im trading from one large capital pool i treat each pair of currency as individual investment project (in my words). Im well aware of the correlation between pairs of currency however it is something that i will neither focus nor ignore. I follow what the price is telling me and sooner or later the market will justify my actions accordingly. As long as my risk is covered I will let the market be the judge. But yes sometimes i do hold positions concurrently in same direction but are negatively correlated pairs only to find the market will be a fair judge.

When i mention diversifying my positions; I meant the diversification of the already existing groups of positions within that particular currency pair. The sole purpose of the diversification is to smooth out my equity curve.

I have noticed that you have interest in hedging. I dont know where your views stand in hedging however what would you say if i have groups of positions that are both buy and sell on the same currency pair? Will you also advise me that all im doing is offsetting each other?

Please dont take my questions as any form of disrespect as its not but perhaps trying to help you form a different perspective.

Good night all.

Also I would like to mention that the last 4 days definitely has taken its toll on me. I will try and complete my posts relatively soon.

mlambole Jul 13, 2010 11:41am | Post# 34


I started adding positions into group uc4s around first week of june, from 1.15000. Not all on same day or same week.

From june there has been a very good down trend. I was little hesistent at first because april, may on weekly/monthly chart has been a bull run. BUT I took emotion out and went with the flow. I entered with minimal risk and see what would play out. I kept my bias of the downtrend as usd/chf has been down on monthly chart since 1999!
Hello,

You said "I took emotion out and went with the flow". I am asking myself, what flow ? As you said, in april and may it was a bull run, what made you go short beginning of june ?

guess121 Jul 13, 2010 4:34pm | Post# 35

A five star thread for me!

pipEASY Jul 13, 2010 10:27pm | Post# 36

Hello,

You said "I took emotion out and went with the flow". I am asking myself, what flow ? As you said, in april and may it was a bull run, what made you go short beginning of june ?
Hello mlambole and other members of the forum

Good question and my reply will be important.

I cannot predict any 'intraday' movements especially the next 50-70 pips of movement. Certainly not from indicators and not in my focal/thinking capacity. Also I consider myself a bigger person (in a non-egotistical way) than to be sitting in my leatherbound chair and pondering where my next 50 pip opportunity is. My intentions are different and it is important why.

As long as I enter the market and participate, I could be either buying or selling on the same currency pair. I let the market decide my actions.

My job is to enter at minimal risk and let the market show me its intentions. Entering the market is something everyone needs to practice on. It is a quest that you must complete.

For me, I have various entry methods that are now second nature to me. One of my favourite is breakouts. Areas where price needs to breakout. And when it does breakout I will go with the flow of the mass. I request everyone to have a look.

Usd/chf had a bull run in april and may 2010. Around first week of june I started noticing that my newly added legs for the uptrend was struggling for survival. But before I even noticed this I was already entering buy and sell from the 'market action.'

As long as I do my job of entering with minimal risk either buy or sell I will let the market be the fair judge. You will only notice the bigger picture of the market after a period of growth on your positions. As long as you have controlled the risk, let your positions work for you.

From 2nd week of June it was obvious that the trend has changed when support was broken on the daily chart. It doesnt matter if trend didnt change cause I will diversify my holdings around that period of time.

It was group 'uc3s' that held positions on the uptrend of april and may. When I diversified this group, I closed out enough legs to ensure my capital balance has increased from this 'minor' endeavour. My profit was more or less around $22K. Then I moved 3 of the larger legs that I did not close out into a new group that I called uc1b to continue fighting for me incase this 'april, may uptrend' is the start of something huge.

Unfortunately, group uc1b died in action (only recently) with breakeven. They had a good fight but the main monthly downtrend since 1999 was just too much for them. I have no remorse at their departure as I got hundreds more soldiers on the battlefield.

Moving on.

pipEASY Jul 13, 2010 11:15pm | Post# 37

Good day all

Something I appreciate more as I get older is the beautiful weather and how it plays on my garden. Today is one of those days. Just before I head out for a lunch appointment I thought I tell you a story about myself.

Everyone has vice. I dont smoke, drink heavily or chase tail however I do collect comic books. My favourite is superman and Im an avid collector. There has been an occassion where I actually attended an auction house overseas to bid for a prized number in the series. In this trip I befriended a collector who had a wide interest and has been very successful in his field. I welcomed his friendship and attended few of the auctions with him.

What I noticed at the time of the auction was that he was buying quiet a few pieces of antiques. I dont personally see the point of buying a marble head of a roman imperial for $600K even if it was 1800 years old. We were obviously not on the same level in antiques. He looked somewhat disappointed when I bid $5000 for an egyptian jar apparently few thousand years old but I must admit I only bid cause I got carried away. Luckily it went under the hammer for much more. And it wasnt a jar but some important washing bowl..

Anyways, we had few quiet drinks and got to know each other alot more. Our common grounds was that we were both traders. Trading different instruments but traders nonetheless. He continued telling me that his trip was not only about buying but also selling. From what he was showing me, he had sold few millions of antiques the last few months and his trip is just about to conclude. I asked what he considers to be the important aspect of his success and he said it was nothing but just buying at reasonable price and holding cause he knows that antiques of this calibre will only rise in value. Not all of them but most of them and he knows which ones do.

He noticed that I wasnt talking much and he returned the same question to me. I replied, 'wilson, i do the same as you do..'

Are you a trader? Then be a trader. We buy items to hold indefinitely increasing its value. The whole purpose of a trader is to buy something cheap or reasonable and selling it later on for alot more. Thats what I perceive as a trader.

Moving on.

chonghm Jul 13, 2010 11:15pm | Post# 38

Dear pipEASY,

Your system looks like the Turtle Trading System. A trend following system. In your case you maintain your core long terms positions and countertrade the short terms trade as well. How does the swap rates affect your profits?

damosdmf Jul 13, 2010 11:34pm | Post# 39

hi pipeasy

just thought i would say loving the thread so far lots of good info. im guessing most people round here will call your style of trading investing? keep the good info coming.

regards damien

pipEASY Jul 14, 2010 1:41am | Post# 40

Dear pipEASY,

Your system looks like the Turtle Trading System. A trend following system. In your case you maintain your core long terms positions and countertrade the short terms trade as well. How does the swap rates affect your profits?

Hello chonghm & carolco

Swap rates shouldnt hinder you. Swap rate is something that I neither forget nor ignore. What you need to acknowledge is that the numerous positions you hold will grow 'exponentially' for you the longer you let it. You need to grasp this concept.

I can also reassure myself that the bundles of positions that I hold in other curreny pair which rewards with positive swap balances out the small loss I incur in negative swap or the fact that my exponential growth in equity will outshadow any miscellaneous costs involved in the long run. Swap rates remain static however the growth of my equity is growing exponentially. Of course swap will play a vital role for a trader on short term, eroding away on their hard earned small lots of profits. And unfortuantely they will be discouraged to trade such pairs which is quite disheartening to see.

You need to be become a bigger person and not let things like this hinder your actions.

Power of growth starts from your participation in the market. The trend of the market will grow your equity to new dazzling heights. And that is where your focus should be.

Very good question indeed.

P.S Im not aware of a a system/method called turtle. My contributions here are all personal.


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