Is that wright ?
I also am afraid every time of black swans. I am in that fase that i dont worry about the actual price of the par, My real struggle is to find the perfect balance between how much Money to invest versus the danger of having a margin call due to a black swan event
OANDA froze during the GBPUSD 700 pip meltdown...and reopend after half was recovered!
The question is: how did they handle stops, people had set way before and above...
1 The original stop? (unlikely)
2 Way at the bottom?? (that would be brutal).
3 Back in the middle...?
For many, that difference could have been either a: Margin Call, Negative Balance or just a heavy loss...
What people who are scared about black swans must realise is that the big direction of the movement will always be in the direction of the current weakness/strength. Cable was hardly in a bull market so the dump was to the downside. The Swiss was hardly in a bull market (no bull market has to be supported with intervention) so the move was to the downside.
So in both situations it was impossible for the moves to be 500-1000+ ticks to the upside. Therefore all short positions had little or no risk of a black swan in fact they had the chance of a black swan in the trader's favour if he was positioned with the current trend in force.
As for being scared of black swan moves you're more likely to die today on the roads or even falling down the stairs. But if you're still worried about black swan moves then trading and speculating really isn't for you. Keep your money in Gold or cash (but even those can have black swan moves against them).
are you sure?
i remember that CHF is a big fast bullish reversal. a bullish reversal.
CHF had been bearish for a long term before swiss bank did that dirty stunt.
Yes I'm sure, the chart below doesn't look like a market anyone should be long of.
Flow is down, there has only been selling over the last 12 months and price is 8 ticks above the 1.2000 peg level. You also know that some of the big whales and other super-punters are looking to play some games and test the SCB. Remember, the whales in this game know their financial history, they also know their duty, so they wouldn't have been able to resit a little tickle of that 1.2000 to see what happens. Most likely the SCB would have punished them and put the price up 50 ticks but that would be ok, it was just a little tickle of that level not much money lost, view it as an investment.
That would be just the first attack in what might be a long campaign. The boys would watch and if price sunk back to that level they'd probably have another tickle of the level, again see what happens. And so on, often a peg can take time to break but the boys know they have the market on their side and as powerful as the central banks are they're not bigger than the market so as long as that rate was below 1.2010 it was going to be tested. Of course this never happened because the SCB pulled the chain the next day but if they hadn't the boys would have soon started their games.
Who knows the day before the peg-pull could have been the low, price could have rallied backup to the 1.2500 over the next few months but buying at 1.2008 on the assumption that price 'might' go back up is not the trade of a sensible man. The next day proved that.
I have read a lot a of post....nothing compare to this....
Good day fellow traders,
Interesting thread, I've read the first few pages, unfortunately the chart pics are long gone but a sound enough concept.
Without reading all 300 odd pages, may I ask if this method has been successful in the last 6 years that the thread has been running as I'm sure that's enough time to test it.
Also are there any difficulties being picked up with this method with the modern day use of algo's which are trapping traders into continuous losses.
Thanx for your time in advance
What I've found is this is not actual method but it is mindset which totally change the way I look at the trading World. You may want to try it, once its yours, its yours forever.
PS. there is a PDF file which contains all pipEasy's posted pics in this thread. you may wanna check it out. i can't remember where is it but it's around here.
I have just started my own journey with my equity millipede. Gunnernic, hit the google and you will find the pdf. That's my bible nowdays.
Thank you PipEasy.
I found an EA its name is time trade so I can anter start of the daily candle and also practice the low risk entries on M5 and H1.
Someone mentioned that the millipede strategy is feast or famine and famine most of the time, but the thing is that with the millipede strategy the feasts are exponentially bigger than the famines. just store up a lot of food so you wont have a famine the next time that the harvest is small/0
Also remember to use fundamental analysis. I know that Graeme didn't and it worked for him but I think that many people could benefit from looking at the fundamentals instead of just looking at charts. I'm currently long USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.
This is my performance so far. I traded way too much in the beginning and if I hadn't done that I would probably have had a profit by now. I hope that I will be ready for a huge feast in a few months.
This strategy is really something worth to follow. I will definitely implement its elements in equity trading. But in FX as a USA resident working with a broker can we use millipede strategy? In other words, will, say, FXCM broker (based in UK) allow to have opposite positions on the same pair bought at various points of time? I agree with PipEasy - It is not hedging. He does not buy-sell at the same time, like straddle, but take positions at different point of time. There are other restrictions like FIFO. Thank you.
Sorry guys, this is still hedging - same instrument, opposite positions. Plus, I do not think a UK firm is allowed to take US-Based clients.
Good morning, and I apologize for my English.
I would ask for a clarification.
As in the presence of a sell trend is said that when you see a reversal buy candle that exceeds reverse the previous sell candlel, you have to close 50% of the stacked positions, the positions which we speak? The first since the buddha candle flying or near the breaking of a trend reversal buy candle?
Still reading through the posts
but in the final posts; Graeme mentions a book? was this ever done? a book called "Building an Equity Millipede"
well Aside from the book;
and Thanks to Jaquemate for the Part 1 to Part 3 PDF's
i was able to make a Part 4 of the remaining posts (plus extras) unfortunately in my part 4, there are no pictures of the screen caps... you'll just have to read his commentary which is good enough 90% of the time
attached should be most of Graemes relevant posts.
Building an Equity Millipede Part 1.pdf
Building an Equity Millipede Part 2.pdf
Building an Equity Millipede Part 3.pdf
Building an Equity Millipede Part 4.pdf
Thanks for the interesting input.
1. In your experience, does the Black Swan always propel the price in the direction of the trend? What could be the rationale, because for this to happen, the black swan event or the event is in the direction of the trend? Is it a coincidence or other thing at play?
2. In cases where the Black Event is against the trend. Say, EUR/USD is going up and some event has the consequence of pushing the price down happens.
Would the price suffer a temporary reversal and continue in the original direction (or) would the event be a catalyst to change the underlying trend from up to down?
Just curious as to the inner reasoning... Any guidance is greatly appreciated.
I hope my math is right. It might not be. But I think it is.
You have changed the way you look at the trading world. I have learnt and picked up some different thoughts along the ways. It is the mind that adapt our behaviours, and interestingly, have a lot to do with adapting oneself into the trading world. It changes my mind, in turn changes some behaviours, and in turn into the trading methods.
May you share what you have gained from Graeme's posts.
© Forex Factory