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HiddenGap Mar 8, 2011 4:54am | Post# 15241

Something different
 
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Okay, let's do things a bit different this time. I was originally going to do a bar-by-bar of this chart, but I am feeling a bit lazy now. Instead I would like for all to either critique, ask questions, or both about the chart.

I will however, mention a few things about some of the bars.

#1: It's hard to see now, but this was the high volume bar that started it all. A wide spread up bar on ultra high volume closing in the middle. Whilst it is true that there are three parts to it, we know that markets do not like high volume up bars. We also know that a close in the middle of the range is significant.

If this bar is strength we would like to see a test within 5 bars. By that same token, we would like to see signs of weakness within 5 bars as well. 2 bars later there is a No Supply bar but the market only moves sideways. 5 bars later there is an Up Thrust.

The market moves sideways.

#2: Advanced sign of weakness. We get a nice down bar on volume less than the previous two bars that closes near its high. This is a Test. Note that the top of the Test bar is equal to the high of #1. Also note the price action leading up to this bar with respect to the trigger level. Now note the next bar. It closes down. This means the Test has failed. That's a sign of weakness. Aggressive entry.

#3: Three is a better entry as we can see that the trend has changed and its our old friend No Demand.

As I said, I am not going to do all the bars I had intended to do, so I will skip to #6.

#6: After seeing Stopping volume, followed by a series of up bars on low volume (No Demand), we get an equal close on a bar that fails to make a higher high but makes a lower low and closes near its low. This bar is supply swamping demand. If you were watching in real-time, you would have seen this bar make the low, push up for the rest of the interval and the collapse just before the end of the period.

Couple this Bar with the No Demands and the fact that the trend is down and you have another signal to get short. As some may have been looking for a confirmed long entry, this timeframe was saying there is some more to go on the down side.

Okay, I'm done. Let the critique begin.
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Steve Gill Mar 8, 2011 4:55am | Post# 15242

How do you know that? It can just be a little bit bigger shake out. Who knows. (...SG mentioned doesn't look like a shakeout...)
I meant it doesn't look like an intra day shakeout, i.e. a shakeout that means we're going to rock back up to 1.4 and above today. I'm thinking of intra day trend trading.

I agree over the daily, 2 day or weekly it may turn out to be the beginning of a larger shakeout - in fact I think this is extremely likely as its clear on longer timeframes the SM is extremely bullish. My only slight problem with this is I'm not seeing evidence of large supply at 1.4 yet - so why shakeout something that isn't there?

Mr J Mar 8, 2011 5:05am | Post# 15243

Very fair point Intel, it didn't even cross my mind that you were counter trend trading. Its just when I was starting out I found VSA difficult enough without counter trend trading so I presumed everyone was trying to trade with the trend.

Apologies
The trend is down? I don't position myself on a timeframe on which I'd be looking to short. My trading on fast timeframes serves only to build my position on slower timeframes. They're extremely cheap, tight entries that individually have a low probability of success, but overall are very rewarding.

Steve Gill Mar 8, 2011 5:06am | Post# 15244

Okay, I'm done. Let the critique begin.
I love your charts, really clear and concise.

I remember your posts back from Seamus's VSA thread, and I have a lot of respect for you and your chart reading skills. I don't feel qualified to critique your work but I do have one thing I'm not convinced (yet) on - your bar 1. I appreciate its selling and for the time of the days its relatively high, but I don't see how this bar started it all. I think the direction was made up from the background yesterday where towards the end of day there was no volume in the upmove.

sony Mar 8, 2011 5:10am | Post# 15245

Thanks
 
[quote=HiddenGap;4454183]Okay, let's do things a bit different this time. I was originally going to do a bar-by-bar of this chart, but I am feeling a bit lazy now. Instead I would like for all to either critique, ask questions, or both about the chart.

I will however, mention a few things about some of the bars.

#1: It's hard to see now, but this was the high volume bar that started it all. A wide spread up bar on ultra high volume closing in the middle. Whilst it is true that there are three parts to it, we know that markets do not like high volume up bars. We also know that a close in the middle of the range is significant.

If this bar is strength we would like to see a test within 5 bars. By that same token, we would like to see signs of weakness within 5 bars as well. 2 bars later there is a No Supply bar but the market only moves sideways. 5 bars later there is an Up Thrust.

The market moves sideways.







Thanks for this Hidden

I can see now that you marked that trigger bar in a manner top and close

But is that maybe more advanced than low and close of it..when it is up bar

Or

High and close when it is down bar?

All the best

Steve Gill Mar 8, 2011 5:10am | Post# 15246

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The trend is down?
Intra day trend is surely, yes

If you were looking for intra day trades like I do, and want to trade with the trend, I do still think we're looking for shorting opportunities right now.
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HiddenGap Mar 8, 2011 5:11am | Post# 15247

.. I'm not convinced (yet) on - your bar 1. I appreciate its selling and for the time of the days its relatively high, but I don't see how this bar started it all. I think the direction was made up from the background yesterday where towards the end of day there was no volume in the upmove.
I am very myopic. I believe a chart never lies. So I don't look a multiple timeframes. I watched as the market moved up and then #1 appeared. There may infact be more in the background, I would give you that. I don't have to see it as long as those that can actually move price do.

KinsaleForex Mar 8, 2011 5:13am | Post# 15248

Okay, let's do things a bit different this time. I was originally going to do a bar-by-bar of this chart, but I am feeling a bit lazy now. Instead I would like for all to either critique, ask questions, or both about the chart.

I will however, mention a few things about some of the bars.

#1: It's hard to see now, but this was the high volume bar that started it all. A wide spread up bar on ultra high volume closing in the middle. Whilst it is true that there are three parts to it, we know that markets do not like high volume up bars. We...
One thing i'd say is that I wouldn't have considering taking trigger numbers off the bar that you did. I wouldn't have thought the volume was high enough. It's more than likely me not thinking relatively though.

Steve Gill Mar 8, 2011 5:17am | Post# 15249

I am very myopic. I believe a chart never lies. So I don't look a multiple timeframes. I watched as the market moved up and then #1 appeared. There may infact be more in the background, I would give you that. I don't have to see it as long as those that can actually move price do.
Once I looked up what myopic means I understand what you're saying

I find it fascinating that you don't look at multiple timeframes and I'm certainly very interested in what you're doing. I'll watch your future posts with greater interest now that I realise that.

How do you determine support and resistance lines out of interest?

HiddenGap Mar 8, 2011 5:18am | Post# 15250

I can see now that you marked that trigger bar in a manner top and close

But is that maybe more advanced than low and close of it..when it is up bar

Or

High and close when it is down bar?

All the best
I'm still waiting for Gavin's book. I hope he will shed some light on the trigger number (level). Currently, what I do is look at the three key levels: the close, the high and the low. I believe the close is the first place to look but you can't count out the high and the low.

HiddenGap Mar 8, 2011 5:23am | Post# 15251

One thing i'd say is that I wouldn't have considering taking trigger numbers off the bar that you did. I wouldn't have thought the volume was high enough. It's more than likely me not thinking relatively though.
The bad thing about the chart is the volume picked up on the left side. Bar #1 was Yao Ming when it appeared but it pales in comparison to the volume as the night/day progressed. Actually, that is part of the point-volume is all relative as you said.

EDIT: My volume indicator is set up so that the salmon area denotes volume 3 standard deviations from the average. Therefore by definition it must be ultra high.

sony Mar 8, 2011 5:32am | Post# 15252

thanks again
 
The bad thing about the chart is the volume picked up on the left side. Bar #1 was Yao Ming when it appeared but it pales in comparison to the volume as the night/day progressed. Actually, that is part of the point-volume is all relative as you said.

EDIT: My volume indicator is set up so that the salmon area denotes volume 3 standard deviations from the average. Therefore by definition it must be ultra high.

Yes ...me to

Also please tell me

Yes as you said it is ultra hig volume bar but what with the other ..you have more than 5 of them on your chart later...
Do you erase than that idea wich happen before and goe over this new once or what?

It realy confuse me a lot

I trying to find along that also an ultra wide bar but after few h that ultra high is not anymore ultra high at all...

If there is any volume indi taht can pick up more days ov average...lets say 30 or more...And how it can be set up so we are sure that one more has realy ultra high volume?

sony Mar 8, 2011 5:33am | Post# 15253

Polomine
 
Polomine...come on

S.O.S

HiddenGap Mar 8, 2011 5:44am | Post# 15254

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..Yes as you said it is ultra hig volume bar but what with the other ..you have more than 5 of them on your chart later...
Do you erase than that idea wich happen before and goe over this new once or what?
Again, I am waiting for Gavin's book to shed more light on the subject. For now, I consider the most recent Ultra high volume bar as the likely trigger bar.

So on the chart below, even though there are a few bars in the Ultra High Region, only the last one is a trigger bar. Also note that it is the highest volume of all bars that can be seen on the chart. But each new and higher bar would be considered a possible trigger bar until an even higher bar appears.
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sony Mar 8, 2011 5:51am | Post# 15255

yeap
 
Again, I am waiting for Gavin's book to shed more light on the subject. For now, I consider the most recent Ultra high volume bar as the likely trigger bar.

So on the chart below, even though there are a few bars in the Ultra High Region, only the last one is a trigger bar. Also note that it is the highest volume of all bars that can be seen on the chart. But each new and higher bar would be considered a possible trigger bar until an even higher bar appears.

Yeap that is it

But sometime i spend all day waiting for a bigger and wider bar and on the end i end up with zero trades...but that is just low experience more than anything else

Mr J Mar 8, 2011 5:55am | Post# 15256

Intra day trend is surely, yes

If you were looking for intra day trades like I do, and want to trade with the trend, I do still think we're looking for shorting opportunities right now.
The point is that there is no one trend, and although I'm sure you know that, trend will vary between intraday timeframes as well. Each of those retracements upwards was a trend on a fast timeframe.

1pipperhour Mar 8, 2011 5:59am | Post# 15257

EU
 
So here we are at support and going sideways.

USDX (30 min) at it's top showing us lots of wicks. Signs of weakness. Possible down.

EU looks like is drying up supply. I'm looking at 10 min right now which is showing signs of strength.

No way I'm going to short this above lower tl (when we are so near at it). I'm looking for longs (I even placed stop order not to miss it). If it doesn't happen. The hell with it then.

Again. This not a call. This is what I think.

And HG. If your post is you being lazy then I don't want to know what you will do if you are not lazy. A book maybe

Steve Gill Mar 8, 2011 6:01am | Post# 15258

The point is that there is no one trend, and although I'm sure you know that, trend will vary between intraday timeframes as well. Each of those retracements upwards was a trend on a fast timeframe.
My opinion is that it depends on the time frame you are trading.

The 1 minute could have a different trend to the 4 hour, of course - but looking at the charts today I can see that the 5 min, 15 min, 30 min and 1 hour are all trending down at the moment. So buying into this is clearly counter trend, unless the trend turns.

I'm not saying there is anything wrong with counter trend trading - just that its not for me and I personally think its easier for newbies to learn to trade with the trend.

1pipperhour Mar 8, 2011 6:13am | Post# 15259

My opinion is that it depends on the time frame you are trading.

The 1 minute could have a different trend to the 4 hour, of course - but looking at the charts today I can see that the 5 min, 15 min, 30 min and 1 hour are all trending down at the moment. So buying into this is clearly counter trend, unless the trend turns.

I'm not saying there is anything wrong with counter trend trading - just that its not for me and I personally think its easier for newbies to learn to trade with the trend.
What I'm trying to learn these days is to recognize the trend change at its early stages. So it may look like me or Intel are counter trend traders. Actually I'm not. But I also don't want to give an idea that I'm forcing market to go up. If it happens - good. If not - good that I didn't take the trade

Mr J Mar 8, 2011 6:15am | Post# 15260

Also note that the best trades start as "counter-trend". I would say I trade moves, rather than trends.


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