I will post performance from my live accounts.
The FX account is composed of two sub accounts. One for long trades only, the other for short trades only.
I also have an account for non-fx trades who's performance I will also post. The sum of the three accounts totaled $130000 opened Jan 1st, 2010.
Every once in a while I also plan on posting my view on where markets are headed. I will continue to post for as long as I think it is not taking too much of my time.
I've added a short GBPUSD and USDJPY positions. I have a small long AUDJPY position. Lastly, I have a short ETF index position I am still holding from a couple of weeks ago.
Markets have been largely uneventful today. If current trends persist I should clean up pretty well.
Charts look oversold, but market is driven by panic about fundamentals. The panic is well justified as it is becoming more and more apparent that western economic rebound is solely due to government spending. Business credit and public lending is as tight as it has ever been. We could be headed for a double dip. If there is a double dip, the amount of spending governments will have to do will be much larger than the first time around. There will be alot of political resistance and indecision about further government subsidies. This could lead to another depression.
People are taking some profits off the table here, which is understandable, BUT I am still a big USD bull.
The markets have not had a single back to back positive days in a couple of weeks. The Eurozone is as screwed up as ever. As the New York Times reported today 1 out of every 5.5 $ paid to workers comes from government as opposed to private industry. The US is fukced and I am going to exploit it as much as I can. Does destruction of society in US mean that stocks can't rally and make new all time highs? Oh no. What this means is that the US market will have more and more seizures (those lovely 3 sigma moves) while the US consumer becomes irrelevant to world economic growth. The only worrisome part is that the US may not go down peacefully like the USSR, but with a big bang.
Enough babbling: Down to business. Yesterday I was short GBPUSD and USDJPY and future indices while and long AUDJPY. I was fortunate enough to have my GBPUSD and USDJPY positions hit their targets. The markets have retraced since the over night lows. This has caused me to enter a short on the GBPUSD again. The USDJPY barely reached its target on the short side so for the time being I am not planning on reopening a position in that pair. Instead, I have gone long USDCHF. I don't know where or when the retracement will end, but the larger the retracement the more I expect to buy USD and short european currencies.
I had a pending order to go long AUDJPY off the lows but was now triggered by a few pips. That was a mistake, but I am still holding onto my small AUDJPY position which is acting as a partial hedge to my index position.
Here is a link to a sub account I have which tracks my performance trade by trade:
Click on it several times if you get an error at first. There is some some of problem with myfxbook.
The equity curve does not include trades taken on EFT indices since those trades I execute with a non MT4 broker which myfxbook does not track.
Lastly, note that the drawdown is irrelevant here since this is a highly leveraged account. I goal is to keep the maximum break to valley NAV drawdown on my overall portfolio to less than 20%. So far the NAV max peak to valley drawdown of my portfolio has been around 10%.
Not a big change in the FX market. As mentioned yesterday, the market "rally" has indeed turned out to be just some profit taking. As I write, the EUR is slipping and will likely go to around 1.2 over night.
Same fundamental problems persist.
I still don't have a direct EURUSD position because of potential central bank interventions and currency manipulation. I have the exact same positions as yesterday and I am going to add a long JPY position soon as I see the flight to safety theme continuing.
I was closing my index ETF short position today, but when I saw that the market wasn't able to hold the gains when it opened, I decided to stay put and wait. Turned out to be the right decision.
What a day... Bad economic news (GDP, Unemployment claims) yet the market is able to rally 300+ points. Bahahahaha.
I closed my EFT index position with profit (was much bigger yesterday!). My short GBPUSD and USDCHF positions were stopped out as well as a short USDJPY position I had. The good news is that I was able to go long GBPUSD this morning and my AUDJPY hit its target, so while over all I lost money today, it was much less than it could have been given my positioning...(around 2%).
I am going to consider going long ETFs (nasdaq) maybe on monday. I will also be going short the EUR if it raise a bit further since I strongly believe the EUR will sooner or later continue its down trend.
I will start closing down FX positions I have because I don't want any exposure to gaps over the weekend. The EUR shorting will have to wait until next week (unless we see a large spike up during the asian session today in which case I will probably just not be able to resist shorting the hell out of the EUR).
Monthly summary for first four months of the year (jan through april) for longs only account attached below. Note that this is for long trades only and as you can see the first four months of the year have not been particularly good to go long on any currency pair. None the less, I have managed to keep the account pretty flat even after taking a very large number of long trades.
Same as above except for short trades only. The last four months have been paradise for shorting anything in FX. That's where I have grown the account mostly.
Oanda will make similar reports available for May on Tuesday of next week. I will be sure to post those results as well. I'll give you a little hint though .. the results have been spectacular this month.
This is the last post containing the third and last account I have with which I trade everything _except_ forex.
The equity curve toward the end shows the decrease in realized profit I had to take today because I was wrong about the market having had enough of a bounce on Wednesday since it had given back all of the pre-market gains. Can't always get it right I guess (unless you are one of the 6 biggest banks in which case you don't have a single losing day all quarter because you have license to pick people's pockets!)... still May has been an exceptional month.
Not much to report today. My long GBPUSD closed with profit which exactly offset the loss I took on the USDJPY, so a flat day.
Not an easy market today. I am just glad I did not lose money. I have no open positions on any of my three accounts.
Let's see what next week brings.
Annoying day today. There was huge spike down on USDCHF in FXDD's data feed. I have/had a long position so I was taken out with a huge loss on that spike. FXDD fixed this problem, but it took them ALL DAY LONG. This is bull.
So my long USDCHF position has been re-instated by FXDD and is still in play. I have a long AUDJPY and USDJPY position as well to partially hedge my USDCHF position. If there is a rally in stocks, the JPY will fall the most but that doesn't necessarily mean that the USD will weaken. That is why I am looking to sell GBPUSD and EURUSD if they pull back a bit more. Spain has had its ratings cut; France and UK may be next...
Indices dropped again in the last 30 mins of trading. I hold no ETF positions. The shorts may be over done, so I may enter buy some ETF longs soon...we'll see...
Oanda has yet to release performance statements for May. As soon as they do I will post the results (which have been the best to date!).
The rally in the indices did take place as noted yesterday. I did profit from it as my USDJPY and AUDJPY positions hit their targets. The weakness in JPY is partially due to the Japanese premier stepping down (Prime minister).
Also as mentioned yesterday, there were no rallies in the european currencies even though the indices rallied. So, my USDCHF is now a risk free trade and still running and my GBPUSD hit its target on the short side.
I did NOT however take an index position and even after this rally, I am not planning on taking one. There is alot of congestion still... (along with EURUSD)
I am going to be pretty much on the side lines for the rest of the week until after NFP Friday morning. I don't know how that number will come out, but if it is not as good as expected it will be interesting to see how the market will react. This will give us an idea of what the trend is and where prices may be headed next.
An interesting read concerning NFP numbers:
Summary ... around 700K workers may be added due to US census hirings without a single industry hiring...Talk about government number fudging...
Let's see who gets fooled. I'm going to be a string seller on any big EURUSD, GBPUSD spikes up.
Holding no positions in any account. Waiting for NFP tomorrow. The decoupling between EURUSD and the future indices is becoming more obvious. Hungary is next to be gunned by the market. Have a bunch of short EURUSD pending orders waiting above current price ... just waiting for a nice price spike up.
Below is the FX account balance snapshot.
Very interesting day today. Took a long EURUSD position in the hope that there will be intervention / protection of 1.2000 ... boy was I wrong. Good thing is I didn't even wait for the market to hit my stop and closed that position at 1.1985.
At the same time, after I saw the reaction the gold market had on NFP, I quickly bought up on the dip! That position is well in profit and has covered the loss on the EURUSD and then some...
I am mostly in cash in this market. The interventions are not working or at least loosing their effect, the public is not listening to the rubbish officials are trying to sell to people, these dips are picking up MORE and MORE momentum (not the other way around). People are finally starting to talk about a double dip ... I've been talking about it since the end of April when the market was near yearly highs.
NFP disappointed big time. There were virtually not private sector jobs created !!! Who's going to hire? Why would they? If we take out jobs created by government, education, and healthcare we have a negative jobs number over the last 10 years !!! It is astounding what the free markets have been able to accomplish.
After all these years trading, I still love watching the market move, especially to the downside (and I am positioned well for the drop!). I don't get off on it nearly as much when the market climbs (and I am positioned well for the climb!). I must be evil.
I've attached a snapshot of the two trades I executed. As mentioned the EURUSD trade has already been closed at 1.1985.
Have a great weekend ! I know I will !
Something to listen to over the weekend while sipping on coffee or wine:
Gives a good idea of what needs to be done to fix the global problems and provides a very likely alternative if things are kept the same.
My long gold position hit its target. Gold is very close to make all time highs. Closing the experimental long EURUSD position prematurely on Friday was the right thing to do as price has gone sub 1.1900 and would have taken our my stop for a full loss rather than the half loss I decided to take friday.
The market is getting over sold, but I think it will have a hard time having any substantial rally. We may be oscillating back and forth at least until end of week when we get some investing economic numbers.
I have positioned myself for further USD gains, but my orders are waiting for a retracement. I also have a small index long as I think there may be the possibility for a short term bounce.
To summarize I have a few pending orders to go long USD if a retracement takes place, but have no active fx trades. The only active trade I have is a small long index position. Trying to be a contrarian again! This will be a very interesting week and I am excited to see how it pans out.
Makes me good to know that many 'world class' hedge funds had their ass handed to them last month according to this article:
I think this is partially because banks and hedge funds have moved to more mean reversion algorithms than before ... if you look at a chart of the VIX you'll see how it has been decreasing since March 2009.
I am the guy that took money from those bastards and I don't feel bad about it at all. Last month was an absolute 3 sigma positive return for me where I was able to close the month with 10%+ increase in equity and virtually no drawdown. For the 4+ years I've been trading, I have never had a 10%+ increase in equity in a single month. I don't expect this to be repeated in the next 4+ years, but I'm going to enjoy it for as long as it lasts. Been thinking about just folding shop for the rest of the year and enjoying beautiful CA, but I'm sure I'll get bored in a week doing nothing and my investors will complain I'm not making them more money!
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