Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Commercial Content (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=158)
-   -   james16 Chart Thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331)

batesmotel Jul 25, 2009 6:36pm | Post# 38921

SeekingLight
 
Im on page 150 of the thread and SeekingLights posts are really interesting, check them out.
Will do...you're 50 pages ahead of me...good going!

GregB

batesmotel Jul 25, 2009 6:40pm | Post# 38922

5%-8%
 
I dont get that if he is so sure of his hit rate then why isnt he betting 5-8% per trade?
I didn't want to go there...but sometimes he actually does approach those risk levels (5%-8%)....I wouldn't do it though...

But practically speaking, when you're making 3 or 4 (or more ) trades daily, why bother risking >3%?

Greed perhaps?

GregB

tricello Jul 25, 2009 7:55pm | Post# 38923

Hey Tricello

Welcome to finally posting

Your post all sounds very sound to me. Just my personal take would be, yes we are clearly at a larger resistance PPZ around the 135 and stalling. But this pair has been stuck in a pretty large sized range and chopyy. There is more chop underneath to give this trade problems. So if you see this resistance as strong enough to hold then waiting till your green line hits of course is a trade mgmt decision. I just tried to show a chart with where a lot of bar highs and lows are located to give it potential...
Thanks for ponting this out Mike.

It looks like I would have to move to BE too early to avoid the risk of that zone while in the meantime minimizing the potential of the trade by not giving it space.

Would you consider the fact that USD/JPY presents a similar setup to backup a decision?

tyler812 Jul 25, 2009 8:51pm | Post# 38924

2 Attachment(s)
So here's my 3rd for the month.

Eur/Cad 4h IB.

Swing low, (long term support zone) bullish divergence, lot's of space.

The hard and fast break was impressive, and went along for a good 30 pips. One thing I know is that on the 4H I should not have in any way allowed this to come back and hurt me,

Perhaps it was the lack of any major hindrances till 1.56 which made me ease down a bit.

Posting it up as a lesson for myself and all...RULES HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED!

Regards,
Ghous.
I lost this one too. It was a nice h4 pb on my ibfx feed which lots of space. Notice on my feed where price reversed after the break....I should have at least had stops to BE.... Maybe we can try again next week..

H4
Click to Enlarge

Name: 07-25-09 eurcad h4 failded pb.gif
Size: 16 KB Click to Enlarge

Name: 07-25-09 eurcad h4 failded pb zoomout.gif
Size: 19 KB

Jlr Jul 25, 2009 9:31pm | Post# 38925

I lost this one too. It was a nice h4 pb on my ibfx feed which lots of space. Notice on my feed where price reversed after the break....I should have at least had stops to BE.... Maybe we can try again next week..

H4
Attachment 278584 Attachment 278585
Such a big CT trade, sort of scary. I personally would be to scared to play that, would want a better bar, or double bottom, or something like that. Could still be a very profitable play, no idea, just would prefer personally to wait for something else.

tyler812 Jul 25, 2009 9:53pm | Post# 38926

1 Attachment(s)
Such a big CT trade, sort of scary. I personally would be to scared to play that, would want a better bar, or double bottom, or something like that. Could still be a very profitable play, no idea, just would prefer personally to wait for something else.
There is some divergence on the weekly, and price is retesting the 365ema; we could see a retrace, but I agree with the overall trend being predominately down.

Click to Enlarge

Name: 07-25-09 eurcad w1.gif
Size: 16 KB

Jlr Jul 25, 2009 10:07pm | Post# 38927

There is some divergence on the weekly, and price is retesting the 365ema; we could see a retrace, but I agree with the overall trend being predominately down.

Attachment 278596

Location is nice, though would prefer to pierce through and close above the resistance, oppose to pulling up short of s/r (which makes me think it could still be going lower to test that area). Highly CT scares me a lot, but my own personal preference I guess.

bundyraider Jul 25, 2009 10:18pm | Post# 38928

Hello Bundy,
Very common sense article, just reading from across the pond.
Question on adding, if I take a 2% trade in a trend which moves away, I then move stop to b/e, the price keeps moving away & then presents another good entry, perhaps above/below next s/r level. In theory I can take a 2% trade again because my first trade is at no cost? And this could be done again and again?
Regards from this Kiwi.
Yes and No.

The point I tried to get across is you have to be careful of overall exposure to going backwards from where you are at NOW.

OK... ...say you have set your stop to break even on that first trade. How far is your stop from the current market price? ... It could be a %2 move! ....So when you add that 2nd 2% trade and set your stop to the same level as the other break even stop, you are talking about sacrificing %4 of your current standings if that stop is hit.

That might be what you are prepared to do maybe, I don't know.
You have to ask yourself if what you are seeing in the continuation set-up is worth risking that total combined percentage.

Are you actually intending to increase your exposure to the market because the trend is now strengthening? ...That's the correct reason
.....Or are you under the impression that your existing positions don't matter any more to you because they are "free"?
Is it actually greed taking over instead? Are you only adding more exposure to earn money faster without considering all the consequences? A "free" trade is still giving an exposure to possible negative move. ...up until it hits the stop level.

I've made these mistake many times. It took me a while time to wake up to what was happening on this one.


.

bundyraider Jul 25, 2009 10:32pm | Post# 38929

EVERYONE PLEASE STOP POSTING NEGATIVE OFF TOPIC POSTS.

All that is happening at the minute is many people rubbing people the wrong way and it's getting way out of hand. The worse direction I've ever seen this thread go in.

bundyraider Jul 25, 2009 10:47pm | Post# 38930

If we are talking about each trade being min 0.75 RR min (i.e. you risk $1000 min you get back is 750) then I think yeah 95% win rate would be a bit high. I reckon 85% is doable using this material or even 90% when you get good.
The 95% is probably my fault. When I wrote my post the second mention had 95% instead of 90%. I guess I was thinking about the "95% of traders failing" quote.

At the same time I don't believe it's totally impossible for someone to be that good at choosing their trades. That would be quite an arrogant assumption for any of us to make! Someone might know the right markets to trade and know them too well. You never know.
.

tyler812 Jul 25, 2009 10:47pm | Post# 38931

Thank you.
EVERYONE PLEASE STOP POSTING NEGATIVE OFF TOPIC POSTS.

All that is happening at the minute is many people rubbing people the wrong way and it's getting way out of hand. The worse direction I've ever seen this thread go in.

jattputt Jul 25, 2009 11:26pm | Post# 38932

EVERYONE PLEASE STOP POSTING NEGATIVE OFF TOPIC POSTS.

All that is happening at the minute is many people rubbing people the wrong way and it's getting way out of hand. The worse direction I've ever seen this thread go in.
Completely Agree

jattputt Jul 25, 2009 11:29pm | Post# 38933

EVERYONE PLEASE STOP POSTING NEGATIVE OFF TOPIC POSTS.

All that is happening at the minute is many people rubbing people the wrong way and it's getting way out of hand. The worse direction I've ever seen this thread go in.

We all should try to stay focused on PA, & That's what this threat is about.

ghous Jul 25, 2009 11:48pm | Post# 38934

2 Attachment(s)
Ah I see...

Your ppz is all good, but you missed a very important point.

the Pin bar never broke.

At least for the first few months with this technique of merging bars it's recommended that you use the period converter posted by Jarroo in one of his posts.

Below is my Chf/Jpy 8H chart on Fxpro.

Not the best of pin bars anyways evident from the failed attempt of price to try and break through 88.

The divergence and the low of the bar however suggests it might have been a good play had the pin bar given us a quick hard break in which case...
A couple of other pairs on my watch list.

Gj's almost on the same boat as Uj

Eur/Gbp impresses me with that "dragging pull back" as price reluctantly tested the 8700 level. The bulls literally just panted along the entire pull back...points towards something

Ghous.
Name:  gj.gif
Views: 516
Size:  15 KB
Name:  eurgbp.gif
Views: 518
Size:  16 KB

tarco Jul 25, 2009 11:56pm | Post# 38935

Storage Pro - Thanks for the post
 
Thanks for sharing with us. Nothing inspires me more that meeting someone that has defied the odds. The courage it took for the lady you met to get a Harvard degree in the sixties is unimaginable. I believe if one has a passion and burn to succeed at anything...they eventually will, if they don't give up. The decision is up to them. Forget the 95%/5% thing, what does that statistic have to do with one's success in this business? Absolutely nothing.

I could not agree more with your comment below Storage Pro.

"Neither one of these folks let anything stand between themselves or the dream. Most of all they controlled themselves, because it is easy to take the path of least resistance. These two striking individuals have have won in life - big time. They learned that nothing really stands in their way - except for what goes on inside their head - and they learned to shape their thinking to their benefit"

ghous Jul 25, 2009 11:56pm | Post# 38936

1 Attachment(s)
Such a big CT trade, sort of scary. I personally would be to scared to play that, would want a better bar, or double bottom, or something like that. Could still be a very profitable play, no idea, just would prefer personally to wait for something else.
The best part abt the IB was that it probably was the best place you could "fine tune" an entry to catch the continuation of the overall weekly trend.

But yeah I agree it wasn't the "safest" of trades because of the falling knife, but then again a bit aggressive is how I like it....just me...

(it's still on my watch list...)


Ghous.
Name:  eurcad.gif
Views: 518
Size:  11 KB

kk007 Jul 26, 2009 1:12am | Post# 38937

Consecutive Matching Lows
 
1 Attachment(s)
Dear all,

What is the entry point for this kind of trades? Is it the second bar low or the third bar low?

Is this kind of PA less used here that other kinds of PA?

Thanks,

kk
Name:  Clipboard09.gif
Views: 416
Size:  3 KB

Ryanmcd Jul 26, 2009 1:38am | Post# 38938

Lol...perhaps I was exaggerating a tad....but I do know a Torontonian scalper (Eurosniper is his username...eurousdsniper on yahoo) that approaches this win rate....not that he gets 1:1 always...he always takes some off at +10-20 pips and moves SL to BE, then hopes for a runner....9 out of 10 trades are on the EURUSD. He does not divulge his strategy, but I do know that he plays off of S&R's and PA...But I think his secret weapon is his order flow data that he subscribes to.....he knows when there is a $10 billion buy limit order, for example,...

75% sure I hit that in the past on the 3min S&P, also the contest are retarded just as you know everyone makes the 1st million on demo then gets killed with real money. If you fail at demo your strat sucks, if you fail on real money your not control of your emotions. Also I could care less what someone posts on some bullshit site, I have seen it before and in fact the 95% winners site I paid $500 per stock pick for that service 8 years ago and guess what? 65% lost me money after paying $500 for the pick, also why try to sell something if you can make MONEY??? Some many people selling shit cant trade and that's just the truth anyone I know who can trade does not sell shit ever because they make money and dont have to, think about that. If you can made say 200k a week why even screw around with selling some bullshit for $500 a month or even $1000 a month when you can just trade and do better then that?

G33maroon Jul 26, 2009 1:52am | Post# 38939

I respect everyone until they give me reason not to....
Do you really think everyone from Malaysia does not know how to trade or have only $100 as life savings (poor him/her, by the way, he/she has my sympathies)? I like how you twist MLK quote (in blue) about children not to be judged by their skin colour.. but why stop at skin colour? stereotyping or branding sometimes not a nice thing to do

Have a nice day everyone (ops it just passed mid nite, its sunday now)

Im4age Jul 26, 2009 2:13am | Post# 38940

Yes and No.
 
Thank you for that Bundy, so many ways to think about it.
Please keep these thoughts and gems of information coming, many of them slowly turn these on http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon3.gif .


© Forex Factory