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intensedrive Apr 1, 2010 6:14pm | Post# 1

USD/CAD
 
I'm looking at my USD/CAD Chart and it looks like we touched a low that we have no seen since july 08. Does anyone have any ideas on how to trade this setup or is just to risky? Looks like strong support at the 1.0062 level. Would it be unwise to short this if it breaks this key level?

Any ideas?

Thanks

IbkA Apr 1, 2010 7:03pm | Post# 2

If this helps...
 
This isn't a pair I trade, but I've got an alert set for when the pair reaches parity before I start looking for where to place a long entry. With NFP due out tomorrow, and the dollar looking a bit weak at the moment, I'm 'hoping' this will be sometime next week. If I were looking to short this pair, I'd be looking for a retrace tomorrow pre-post NFP and then shorting either tomorrow or next week.

There could be a dip beyond the support to, say 1.024 or thereabouts, just below last months' low, and 40 odd pips below where you're looking to short from, and then you could get a rebound - or a CBN intervention which suddenly spikes the pair up a few 100 pips, like the Swissy today, leaving your short orders in a pretty bad state.

In essence, if I were trading this pair, I wouldn't be shorting from 1.062, but with good mm, and a stop loss, you do what you think is right.

Good luck.

IbkA

I'm looking at my USD/CAD Chart and it looks like we touched a low that we have no seen since july 08. Does anyone have any ideas on how to trade this setup or is just to risky? Looks like strong support at the 1.0062 level. Would it be unwise to short this if it breaks this key level?

Any ideas?

Thanks

wdevauld Apr 7, 2010 3:04pm | Post# 3

Ideas on current price levels
 
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The longer term trend on USD/CAD is undoubtedly down, as the trend for the past year has shown us.

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The current price level is at the bottom of a mutli-month channel, and is also at the incredibly important parity level. If ever there was time for a pullback this is it. I increase my odds by not trading against the longer term trends, so I'm out of any positions in this pair at this time. If I was looking to go long, I'd wait for a break above 1.0075, but I'm going to wait for a further move to the upside, and a resumption of the downward trend before I initiate any new positions.

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Cotton-I-Jo Apr 8, 2010 4:08am | Post# 4

...!?
 
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Is it Time to go short....!?




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TrueBlue Apr 8, 2010 7:49am | Post# 5

Is it Time to go short....!?



Hi Cotton-I-Jo; well I don't know if it's time for anyone else, but I'm in for a short now and looking to a confirmation of 9975 bottom. The 4hr chart looks to me like it may want to go back and put in a positive MacD divergence at the base before heading North. The Hrly is overbought; and the 15m chart already has quite a substantial negative divergence; heralding a down move. Hopefully I'm on the right train going South.......many pips to you

Cotton-I-Jo Apr 9, 2010 3:22am | Post# 6

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It would be a nice area to go long .....






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TrueBlue Apr 9, 2010 5:20am | Post# 7

It would be a nice area to go long .....





Hi there Cotton-I-Jo; well it's getting a little tense now and with news coming out I'm really struggling to hold fast to my target of 9975 but I've already taken good profit on the majority of the move, so I'm happy. Good luck with your Bull trade buddy; there's nowhere else much for it to go after the 4hr divergence completes except up - and I'll be on it then too

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 11:03am | Post# 8

Anybody out there have an open position on this pair?

I am long @ 0.998725

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 11:11am | Post# 9

I am going to stick with this trade for a while if I have to.

Add more Longs around @ 0.9900 or so if I have to.

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 11:56am | Post# 10

I am going to stick with this trade for a while if I have to.

Add more Longs around @ 0.9900 or so if I have to.
No wonder this thing keeps falling...

Your doing exactly what the big guys want. Why the commitment? You married to U/Cad ...

I think the CAD is WAY overvalued myself but I wont stay aboard a sinking ship.

I don't see any form of support until we arrive at the 9942-9938 area ....... assuming we ever get there.

MONEY > Ego

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 12:16pm | Post# 11

No wonder this thing keeps falling...
I seriously doubt that myuy small trade has any impact on the Long Term decline. Hell, the decline started long before I entered my Long position.

Your doing exactly what the big guys want. Why the commitment? You married to U/Cad ...

If you actually knew what the Big Boys know and what they are going to do (which you claim) you would be a multi-millionaire by now with better things to do than talking to a nobody (in trading terms) such as me.

I am not married to her but she is my Mistress.




I don't see any form of support until we arrive at the 9942-9938 area ....... assuming we ever get there.




like I said above, I will wait till 0.9900 (it would not be a surprise if it gets there) before adding more Long positions.

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 12:27pm | Post# 12

LOL ....

I've no time to run on with you dude... whatever works for you, to each their own.


Again, hahaha

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 12:42pm | Post# 13

Whatever.

Only time will tell.

Even if this ends up being a losing trade, it will be a loss that I will consider to be manageable.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 12:56pm | Post# 14

Whatever.

Only time will tell.

Even if this ends up being a losing trade, it will be a loss that I will consider to be manageable.
i think it should be fine. usd/chf dipped 50 pips below parity before going up to 1.08

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 1:08pm | Post# 15

Hey Clouds.

Usaly I only see your posts on the AUD thread which just happens to be the best thread here. I'm telling ya, if your going to trade the AUD/USD, forget the so called experts, instead read that thread. The so called amatuers outperform the so called experts on a regular basis.




No, this trade is not going as planned. But, before I entered this trade I was more than willing to let it go down to 0.9900. I thought I spotted an uptrend but I was wrong.

Went Long 1/2 my usual amount and will add more if the price or a strong move on the upside happens.

Long term I see the CAD gaining on the doller.

Short term I see 1.0039.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 1:17pm | Post# 16


Long term I see the CAD gaining on the doller.

Short term I see 1.0039.
well - long-term i see aud as a range .94-.86 double top breaking .86 and further into .70ish. cad long-term to test the 100 SMA on monthly at 1.20

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 1:26pm | Post# 17

i think it should be fine. usd/chf dipped 50 pips below parity before going up to 1.08
Thank you for your encouragement, it is appreciated.



yorygog Apr 14, 2010 1:34pm | Post# 18

well - long-term i see aud as a range .94-.86 double top breaking .86 and further into .70ish. cad long-term to test the 100 SMA on monthly at 1.20
Thanks!

Still working from those yearly charts i see.

I aint got the patience for it but I admire the fortitude it takes to hold a long term position; to be down 500 pips....no panic, and take it all in stride.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 1:52pm | Post# 19

Thanks!

Still working from those yearly charts i see.

I aint got the patience for it but I admire the fortitude it takes to hold a long term position; to be down 500 pips....no panic, and take it all in stride.
never been even close to down that many pips. i have long-term views, and daily views. i dont hold positions that long, but i can still have an opinion for long term view. having different time frame views helps me stay sane.

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 2:06pm | Post# 20

for the record yory... i was actually being nice. although my post may have came off as snobbish. but anyways.


long @ 0.9966 ... sl at 9971.

second long @ .9942/38 when the above gets stopped out for +~5 pips.

Although I have to wonder at what point will the bears stop getting fed...


It appears the majority of longs are still holding unto their positions. (Common information)

IbkA Apr 14, 2010 2:17pm | Post# 21

You've got the right strategy
 
You've played safe by reducing your usual lot size, and hopefully will wait to see what happens around 0.9900 before adding to this position.

I went long too this morning, and SL wasn't hit so still in the trade. Trade your own plan and don't worry about getting approval, or otherwise, from others. As Clouds rightly pointed out, the Swissy went below parity last year - when I was just starting out - and I bought at around 0.9970 on that pair but used a massive lot size and bailed out on the same night when I thought I was going to have my account wiped out with the drawdown I was facing, well the pair never hit that price again and I missed out on the run as it then retraced 800 odd pips over the next few months.

Trade your 'own' plan, and charts, and with good mm and rm, you'll be rewarded eventually.

Good luck.

i

Ps. Magix, incredible to see you on this thread too - respect to you, I read your posts 'elsewhere' and you're obviously a good trader -wish you'd make up with a fellow trader I also have respect for (yep tell me to mind my own business...) .

I am going to stick with this trade for a while if I have to.

Add more Longs around @ 0.9900 or so if I have to.

Magix Apr 14, 2010 2:23pm | Post# 22

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I watch USDCAD but rarely play it. I use it mainly as an inverse pair, it goes up, cable goes down and vice versa.

Eyes on the current chart show a weekly support line of 1440EMA.

Looking at historical charts it you can see the reaction to this line. It has dipped below on the weekly, but has shown it's ability to hold a weekly price above.

Are we there yet?
Will this line hold?

Time will tell, but I have taken a few trades from this range for short term scalps and well, pulled a couple bucks.

Current value of the 1440 ema is .9951.

Well wishes!
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Clouds Apr 14, 2010 2:29pm | Post# 23

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i guess i post eur/cad chart, as 4HR TL broke., (Cad weakness?) Around 1.33 was also support 3 novembers back.

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Magix Apr 14, 2010 2:34pm | Post# 24

i guess i post eur/cad chart, as 4HR TL broke., (Cad weakness?) Around 1.33 was also support 3 novembers back.

Attachment 458054
When compared to a EUR/USD chart, might not mean weakness for CAD but more strength for the EUR.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 2:38pm | Post# 25

When compared to a EUR/USD chart, might not mean weakness for CAD but more strength for the EUR.
well, i agree that it was the euro that broke the TL. but the consequences of that TL break may spell weakness to the CAD, as I don't really see E/U bullish over an extended period.

IbkA Apr 14, 2010 2:39pm | Post# 26

Long or short
 
Hi Warwick, did you go long or short at 0.9966... sl at 9971 seems like a typo?

i



long @ 0.9966 ... sl at 9971.

second long @ .9942/38 when the above gets stopped out for +~5 pips.

(Common information)

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 2:46pm | Post# 27

I watch USDCAD but rarely play it....
1440 EMA? Is that a common EMA to use?

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 2:50pm | Post# 28

Hi Warwick, did you go long or short at 0.9966... sl at 9971 seems like a typo?

i

Text is correct long @9966 with sl about +5 pips away.... I employ high leverage, as such I cannot tolerate drawdowns (scalper) lastly i don't believe in letting winning trades turn into losers.

Average stop loss is 12 pips....

Carefully watching the Aussie right now... a short seems to be too common at this level. The same can be said of .94 ... I've raised my targets to 9514-9523

Magix Apr 14, 2010 2:50pm | Post# 29

well, i agree that it was the euro that broke the TL. but the consequences of that TL break may spell weakness to the CAD, as I don't really see E/U bullish over an extended period.
I agree with that as well Clouds.

EU is again one pair that I watch but rarely play. I did take a small short lastnight when it hit the 1440ema on hourly, and closed it just after London open.

EU now seems to have support from the 1440ema on the hourly, so, I can imagine that it might take the same path as cable, moving a little higher at least to weekly highs.

I believe us both to be long term bearish on cable, but at the same time, really not much need to miss out on a few longs here n there.

GJ has hit its daily 200ema again and seems to be heavily rejected at this line. USDCAD has touched 1440 EMA as support on bottom side. Cable is showing bullish, but has played very weak over the last 2 weeks.

I am waiting for an all out reversal on all, but will only really get serious on confirmation, until then, play what presents, and make sure my ass is covered.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 2:54pm | Post# 30

I am waiting for an all out reversal on all, but will only really get serious on confirmation, until then, play what presents, and make sure my ass is covered.
i have usd/chf at 1.05 support and resting on 100 /200 SMA on daily.
eur/usd has down trend TL resistance, drawn from Feb.
aud/usd hit .94 the other day making double top if it holds.

could be the beginning of a reversal, have wait and see how it plays out

Magix Apr 14, 2010 2:55pm | Post# 31

1440 EMA? Is that a common EMA to use?
I had the 1440 added to my charts some for some time now, but only have recently started to understand it in its' full value. The previously posted chart and if you look through the cable chart, you will see where this line has shown its value.

I have this applied to all of my charts for all time frames and work with it the same as all other moving averages. It offers a bit of extra perspective, and shares a little insight onto possible pivotal points on both the longer term and shorter term charts.

As I don't want to splatter the UC thread with other charts, have a look at the daily that I have posted, or see if you can see the same things I see when you apply this 1440EMA to your hourly cable and EU charts.

IbkA Apr 14, 2010 3:07pm | Post# 32

Thanks
 
Just thought if you went long at 0.9966, your SL would be 5 pips 'below' at 0.9961 rather than above at 0.9971 -I must be reading your text wrong from being so cross-eyed staring at the screen.

Thanks for your reply anyway.

i

Text is correct long @9966 with sl about +5 pips away.... I employ high leverage, as such I cannot tolerate drawdowns (scalper) lastly i don't believe in letting winning trades turn into losers.

Average stop loss is 12 pips....

Carefully watching the Aussie right now... a short seems to be too common at this level. The same can be said of .94 ... I've raised my targets to 9514-9523

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 3:11pm | Post# 33

lol ... its all good.

what I meant was "locking" in 5 pips of profit.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 3:13pm | Post# 34

cant help but think triple swap is causing reluctance to get into a good dollar position ATM.

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 3:14pm | Post# 35

for the record yory... i was actually being nice. although my post may have came off as snobbish. but anyways.
I did not think that.

If it seemed I came off.....in whatever way that could deemed offensive...then I am sorry.


long @ 0.9966 ... sl at 9971.

Are you sure about that?

Go back and recheck.

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 3:26pm | Post# 36

You've played safe by reducing your usua

Good luck.

.
Thank You.

Warwick Apr 15, 2010 6:21am | Post# 37

Sleeping is anti-productive...was going to leverage the living daylights out this thing at .9966 again for the run above par.


On a more serious note, im still looking for a .9938 entry although slippage could extend down to .9867.

I think ill save my order for the latter.

Cotton-I-Jo Apr 15, 2010 8:56am | Post# 38

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Magix Apr 15, 2010 7:05pm | Post# 39

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Current in-term top, 200EMA on H1 chart.
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Magix Apr 16, 2010 9:06pm | Post# 40

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A rather large leap for a few sheckles here.

Moved from H1 resistance 200ema to H4 resistance 200ema.

Very strong reaction to the 1440 EMA on the weekly.
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