Hi i am mej4rex.
Anyone looking to make a lot of money first thing in the week? Well if the USDCAD is where you are looking then congratulations are in order.
This pair will be selling recklessly inside the first 4-8hours of trading next week. A very ambitious believer in anything he reads in forexfactory will set profit target somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.00610.
I know from experience not to argue with fxSIGNALCENER1.01.
This little invention of mine tracks cash flows in the currency market and does a super job of filtering out false signals and posting only pairs that are well financed RIGHT NOW meaning that i am spared the inconvenience of putting money in pairs that end up in a trading range.
I have attached a small piece of the pie to this post for FREE for the benefit of anyone how fancies a shot at wining every time they trade the AUDCAD
Here's to your Success!!!
Not to say that I disagree with your very 1st post, because, well, actually to a certain extent, I agree.
The thing is, you are promoting the same thing that anybody can add for free with a 200EMA on any meta4 chart.
Price skyrockets without support, a retrace is in order, but where will support be when we get there?
The shaded area on the chart is my expectation....the hourly chart posted prior shows this line as resistance, when we are above it, we now look to it for support.
Works on all pairs.
Some technical analysis
Thank you for replying my post Magix. I have brought with me some technical analysis this time.
First i should let you know that i work with lots of line; pivots, fib., channels, MA's etc. It is my observation that the age old adage "the trend is your friend" is true. So whatever reads trend is to me very valuable.
I also use some oscillators purely as filters. Always in this order: Stochastic, Volume, Bear power and Bull power.
I do my analysis always starting with the Daily (Medium-term) analysis, next the 4 hourly (short-term) and last, the 1 hour. The rest only tend to cause me unnecessary anxiety.
Finally, i should let you all know that i live for the moment. I seriously do not care for medium or log-term analysis considering that i may not be around to earn those future pips. My thing is for the NOW!. That said lets go back to business.
I have three charts attached to this post: D1, H4, H1 USDCAD.
(Screenshot 1) USDCAD D1
Price activity is happening far below the 200EMA in the D1 chart. This is telling me that except by reason of some strong fundamentals, in the long term the current downtrend is still very much in force. This should however not rule out some medium term expectations.
Notice how price has broken and closed above the D1 channel. Stochastic is oversold and pointing upward, volume showed good spirit closing significantly high this to my mind has set the tone for much of what to expect in the coming week. Bears power appears to be coming back indicated by shorter histograms below the 0.00 line. Bulls have been accused of just faking it with that sudden spike but looking at this larger picture, i think they will assert their stance by the close of the business day.
(Screenshot 2) USDCAD H4
Moving over to the H4 chart, The white cannel line masked by the arrow in the screen shot below intersects the yellow cannel line you saw in the D1 screenshot at a convenient place for someone with a huge risk appetite to place profit target. If price breaks the daily pivot point 1.00949, then the obvious destination will be at that intercession price estimated at 1.00657. Seeing that i am not a witch and being that i have been massively wrong in the past doing this long term guessing game, i will only trade it if my fxSC1.01 application permits.
With the 200EMA Resisting upward price movement in the H4 chart, Stochastic pointing down from over bought, volume showing good strength, Bears not realy looking good with taller histograms above the 0.00 line and finally Bulls losing steam indicated by decreasing histograms. I feel comfortable selling this pair. Profit target= 1.00949.
(Screenshot 3) USDCAD H1
Finally, down to the H1 chart. The 200EMA in this chart is way below current price activity levels. Expectation is that Price may move back to re-test the 200EMA. Stochastic is overbought and pointing downward, Volume has fallen considerably (explanation will be that most people closed their positions for the weekend), Bears are looking good and ready to push below the 0.00 line where they are strongest and it looks like they are taking the Bulls with them. Selling this pair is for me the thing to do in the short-term and setting profit target at the daily pivot point price of 1.00949 is a yes.
Here's to your Success!!!
Very nice work mej4rex.
Checking the medium term to help forecast the immediate and comparing to the long. Taking the big picture and breaking it up into smaller pictures definitely gives the advantage of knowing where we came from to where we could be heading.
I watch all time frames from Weekly down to taking trades off the 1m chart. They are all relevant IMO because we move through them taking resistance and support levels into the current.
The weekly has the reactionary point historically, 1440EMA. Though may not hold forever, was a chanced play and worked out for a couple of ez bucks on a trade and hold. I have posted this chart previous, but will post again.
The second chart is my USDCAD hourly, where we had issue with breaking through the hourly 200EMA, but once did, will look to this line as the retrace line and the first possible line of major support.
From my views, the 200EMA typically proves 2 strikes to break. So, 2 strong attempts downside on the hourly could send us back into weekly lows, where as if support holds, the next attack on the H4 chart could show the 200EMA on H4 as our next support line.
Chart 1, weekly
Chart 2, hourly before we broke 200 support
Chart 3, H4, current topside resistance.
Chart 4, support line on retrace.
Technicals and Fundamentals
Monday will most likely be a slow day, without the pair breaking any major support or resistance levels.
Before reading the great analysis and charts posted here, my weekly trade plan had a note to short from 1.0180 or wait till we test 1.0065 before going long, and since I try to avoid trading the first night Asia session of the week on Sunday night (as I've historically repeatedly taken the 'wrong' decision during this session), I'll be happy to see where we are on Monday morning before going long or short.
More importantly, will be interesting to see where we are on Tuesday afternoon pre the BOC's rate decision that afternoon and after that . If they raise their interest rates, we'll probably go down again to test the low of last week, but if they don't then parity might become a distant memory, even by Tuesday.
I know many aren't swing traders so aren't interested in the long-term, but this pair seems to be offering the most potential for a huge profit if one gets the bottom right.
Unfortunately, last week which started so promisingly with this pair, ended horribly as I moved my SL to 1.0010 before going to the dentist on Friday, and arrived home in the eveningto find my SL taken out and the pair where it was at by that time!
I'm determined this week will be better, especially as I'm seeing figures on all charts I've seen posted today that are identical to those in my weekly plan, I can't draw charts as good as you guys or even understand your analysis, but my charts - as bare as they are - seem to be saying the same thing as you all are, so there's still hope!
Good luck to you all this week!
The last few posts on this thread are the reason I continue to look at the Forum on this site. Keep up the great analysis everyone.
Missed this pair today
Obviously didn't reach projected target today, i.e. buy at 1.0100 or 1.0065, but we'll probably reach there over the next few hours as cable's suddenly developed wings.
Moved my pending sell order last night from 1.0180 to 1.0220 when I saw the massive fall with cable, and this didn't get picked up either.
Now we're going down, question is - will we stop at 1.0100/90 or will we drop further till after the BOC rate decision tomorrow PM?
Will just hang on to my cable long from earlier, and wait to view PA at 1.0100/90 before trying to get on any ride with this pair.
If we close around where we're at now with this pair, will look again to sell from 1.0180 tomorrow, or thereabouts as that daily candle looks 'ominous' for any short-term hopes of going long.
Okay, we're there...
At 1.0100 that is, but not too sure about going long here for the retrace, will wait to see cables reaction to the CPI news shortly. If cable goes down, then we could see a decent retrace on this pair. If cable heads for 1.542 then down we go on this pair.
Oh, and my pending sell order at 1.5180 didn't get picked up overnight, stopped short at 1.5159.
Eerily quiet on this thread...
The last trade on this pair did well but I was not satisfied. If I would have only added a few more pips to my TS I could have added 100 Pips to my trade.
Big drop here this morning.
I am long once again @ 0.99873.
Will add more at 0.9900.
No target but will take parity.
"as previously stated" ?
Give me a break.
Back to square one are we...
Opportunities abound ....
Pretty much the same trade here
long @ 9981 tp 10084
Took a long at .9980. SL .9905. TP...not sure yet.
Target 0.9938-42 ..... below, then a swift drop to .97-.9680 Only then can I engage in a large buy order.
Watch the A/U .... if we begin to breach the upper .9360-80 levels then U/CAD longs are in for a ride.
Of course, I could be wrong...
I'm in long too, targeting 1.0080
me too i gone long at .9987
Yes, I am.
This is about the same price I entered my Long last week.
Hope you guys are using stops as the market seems bent on squeezing every penny from existing longs.
Majors are showing signs of exhaustion ... expect a final push then capitulation.
Given the above... U/CAD should begin to see some buying. Although I fancy the large buy orders reside sub .99 or as we begin to approach it. perhaps teen' levels.
We'll see... trade executed and closed.
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