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BJEJFeeJ Apr 30, 2010 4:00pm | Post# 101

I kind of agree. Just makes it difficult when CAD news comes out almost same time as USD news. Then you have to decide which one carries more weight.

The pair is heavily influenced by CAD news. Just wait for good CAD news and then go short. How hard can it be??

edisoname Apr 30, 2010 4:55pm | Post# 102

at 1.0178 now hope it could go south on sunday

Duce Apr 30, 2010 10:17pm | Post# 103

I added another long at 1.0141. Still open over the weekend. Hopefully I don't get bitch-slapped.

edisoname Apr 30, 2010 11:14pm | Post# 104

what do you expect the pair to hit ?

IbkA May 1, 2010 7:53am | Post# 105

Targets
 
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what do you expect the pair to hit ?
Hi there

One thing that might be of help with you is to spend the weekend going through any pairs you trade (or even every pair) to just view the candlestick patterns across the different timeframes, e.g. on the USD/CAD - take a look at the enclosed charts and you can see, on each different timeframe, we've got signs of exhaustion on the bullish run (although this could simply be because of the month end plus 'Friday effect', so I won't be doing anything until Sunday or even Monday morning when the PA will indicate whether there's still more room for a bullish run, or whether we'll see 1.0060 before 1.0254, or even much further up (no single trader, no matter how experienced they might be, can tell you exactly what's going to happen).

If I leave a position open over the weekend, I tend to book some profit, by reducing the lot size and move the SL to break even, so if it goes up further still, then that's all good I'm gaining profit - but at a reduced rate, but if it goes down toward my stop loss, then it's not negating the hard work I've put in and taking away all the profit of the previous week.

Charts enclosed and I hope these are helpful. No lines or arrows, just view the candlestick patterns (and just view the weekly support and resistance to see where the pair 'may' end up).

Good luck with your trading.

i

PS. FXPro is my DEMO account (I don't have anywhere close to 99k in my live account!), so please don't go copying the trade I've got here. I use FXPro for demo trades as my live brokers 'Exness and Tradeview' start the day at 12 midnight, which really skews up the daily candle pattern!
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jack.canadia May 1, 2010 12:11pm | Post# 106

Hi there

One thing that might be of help with you is to spend the weekend going through any pairs you trade (or even every pair) to just view the candlestick patterns across the different timeframes, e.g. on the USD/CAD - take a look at the enclosed charts and you can see, on each different timeframe, we've got signs of exhaustion on the bullish run (although this could simply be because of the month end plus 'Friday effect', so I won't be doing anything until Sunday or even Monday morning when the PA will indicate whether there's still more room...
I would not be shorting near 1.0000 until it is broken. It has tried to many times but failed. Look at how many strong buying reactions there are off the 1.0000 level on the 4-hour and daily. I think she's being accumulated and soon sellers will run out and people will take profits from their large shorts up in the 1.20's, cause it to rise fast.

IbkA May 1, 2010 1:05pm | Post# 107

Agreed
 
Hi Jack

You're quite right, and I wasn't suggesting shorting at 1.0000, if we see 1.0200+ first, I'd be looking to short from around 1.0230 or thereabouts (if we get there), but if we see parity first, then I'd be looking to see if it's a good point to start accummulating rather than selling. Will be keeping my eye on 1.0060 for any buying interest this week btw.

However, if we drop through parity, and I'm not in a short position already from above 1.0150, then I'm happy to trade other pairs and wait for this pair to bottom out before I start accumulating for the long ride up, when this happens - but shorting from 1.000 is not an option for me.

i



]

quote=jack.canadia;3688700]I would not be shorting near 1.0000 until it is broken. It has tried to many times but failed. Look at how many strong buying reactions there are off the 1.0000 level on the 4-hour and daily. I think she's being accumulated and soon sellers will run out and people will take profits from their large shorts up in the 1.20's, cause it to rise fast.[/quote]

aragorn123 May 1, 2010 8:41pm | Post# 108

2 Attachment(s)
Hi there

One thing that might be of help with you is to spend the weekend going through any pairs you trade (or even every pair) to just view the candlestick patterns across the different timeframes, e.g. on the USD/CAD - take a look at the enclosed charts and you can see, on each different timeframe, we've got signs of exhaustion on the bullish run (although this could simply be because of the month end plus 'Friday effect', so I won't be doing anything until Sunday or even Monday morning when the PA will indicate whether there's still more room...
----

Hi Ibka,
I saw this post and I wanted to give my 0.01cents on it. Although I agree with you for the most part that the current bull run is kind of exhausted, I feel that we are still at the beginning of an extended bull run.

If you look at the weekly chart I attached, you can see that there is a bullish engulfing at the end of last week. Also, on the daily, you can see a bullish engulfing pattern. The 4H has put in three bullish bars but like you mentioned, momentum is fading.

My take - the pair is going to retrace and then target 1.0600. As to how much it will retrace, I dont know but the 1.0060 you mentioned seems plausible (I have it close to 1.005 in my charts but that could be just the feed).

I agree 100% that we cannot predict the market - so for all you know, USD/CAD might tank all the way to parity. Lets see what Sunday/next week brings!

Good luck with trading!
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TheGuy May 4, 2010 1:51pm | Post# 109

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Is anyone following whats going on with USD/CAD? Am deep over my head at somewhat -300 pips, had it on sell at 1,0022. Does it show any signs of going down? Somehow I lack info on that pair and graphs don't show good signs of me making out dry from this one.
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Duce May 4, 2010 8:47pm | Post# 110

what do you expect the pair to hit ?
I took some profit at 1.02500. And I'm guessing a few other did too, but the pair did not come back down. It's still there.

My lines above are 1.0305, 1.0354, 1.0411. As long as commodities take a hit...the CAD will take a hit.

Does anyone think oil will drop under $80/bl, especially with poor China/EZ news and good US news (manufacturing, homes)?

I'm still holding longs here, and scalping EU....and golfing. Shot an 88 today.

Duce May 4, 2010 8:50pm | Post# 111

...had it on sell at 1,0022.
I haven't seen a really good sell signal in 13 days, right after the big drop on the April 20.

Duce May 4, 2010 8:54pm | Post# 112

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Duce May 5, 2010 9:39am | Post# 113

I took some profit at 1.02500. And I'm guessing a few other did too, but the pair did not come back down. It's still there. CHECK

My lines above are 1.0305, 1.0354, 1.0411. As long as commodities take a hit...the CAD will take a hit. CHECK, CHECK, (waiting)

Does anyone think oil will drop under $80/bl, especially with poor China/EZ news and good US news (manufacturing, homes)? CHECK

I'm still holding longs here, and scalping EU....and golfing. Shot an 88...
What a difference a day makes . Needless to say...trading has been swift and great.

BJEJFeeJ May 5, 2010 10:02am | Post# 114

I haven't been paying much attention since it broke the channel at the below link. Seems next resistance is around 1.0370. As a matter of fact, I think I'll go ahead and put a pending short there so I don't miss it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=229183&page=6

Is anyone following whats going on with USD/CAD? Am deep over my head at somewhat -300 pips, had it on sell at 1,0022. Does it show any signs of going down? Somehow I lack info on that pair and graphs don't show good signs of me making out dry from this one.
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Duce May 5, 2010 10:20am | Post# 115

If you're scalping, sounds good. If you're looking at longer TFs, I would be interested to hear your analysis.

What we have is a flight from risk move. The EZ and world economies look shit. This year's stock gains have been neutralized. What does that tell you? I have 4 open long trades, all green. And 2 VERY old long trades which are stil red, but getting much better. Money management is super important.

I made one small mistake last night and tried to long the EU for a scalp. Cost me 48 pips.

BJEJFeeJ May 5, 2010 10:29am | Post# 116

You got it! I am well aware of the weekly trend line posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=86 but I don't have access to my charts to post an updated one.

So for longer term trades, I agree that long trades are better. Yeah, I tried longing EU last night too. Survived overnight but hit my S/L soon after NFP. Unfortunately I never learn so it's probably not the last time I'll try to pick a bottom...

If you're scalping, sounds good. If you're looking at longer TFs, I would be interested to hear your analysis.

What we have is a flight from risk move. The EZ and world economies look shit. This year's stock gains have been neutralized. What does that tell you? I have 4 open long trades, all green. And 2 VERY old long trades which are stil red, but getting much better. Money management is super important.

I made one small mistake last night and tried to long the EU for a scalp. Cost me 48 pips.

yeri May 13, 2010 3:44am | Post# 117

there is not much activity at this thread for a few day, guys for you who live at canada, at what level is this pair is said at the normal price?
i'm new at this pair, and if i see the trend for the whole year this pair is really going down for sure, but for me this pair is allready at an extreem level. will this pair going back to 1.2xx again in a long time frame trade?

Usdjpy May 13, 2010 4:24am | Post# 118

I am learning to trade USDCAD
 
I am learning to trade USDCAD. Any advice on what indicators and which time frame is best for this pair? I prefer swing trading strategies. Help appreciated.

yeri May 13, 2010 7:27am | Post# 119

i'm new also at USD/CAD, nice to meet you "USD/JPY".

BJEJFeeJ May 13, 2010 5:14pm | Post# 120

Hi. I too am learning so I hope someone can provide some insight. I personally try to look at the 4H and daily charts mostly on this currency. Price action for the past few days are perfect for scalpers but I only lose money when I try to scalp. So I'm waiting for it to pick a direction before I get back in. If I had the patience I would have gone long a couple of days ago but then I'd just be paying rollover fees waiting for it to go back up; and then it probably would have gone against me anyway. GBP pairs have been giving much better pips this week so hopefully you have other pairs that you trade while waiting on this one to move.

I know I'm not helping here...so I'm looking forward to some insight as well.

I am learning to trade USDCAD. Any advice on what indicators and which time frame is best for this pair? I prefer swing trading strategies. Help appreciated.


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