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intensedrive Apr 1, 2010 6:14pm | Post# 1

USD/CAD
 
I'm looking at my USD/CAD Chart and it looks like we touched a low that we have no seen since july 08. Does anyone have any ideas on how to trade this setup or is just to risky? Looks like strong support at the 1.0062 level. Would it be unwise to short this if it breaks this key level?

Any ideas?

Thanks

IbkA Apr 1, 2010 7:03pm | Post# 2

If this helps...
 
This isn't a pair I trade, but I've got an alert set for when the pair reaches parity before I start looking for where to place a long entry. With NFP due out tomorrow, and the dollar looking a bit weak at the moment, I'm 'hoping' this will be sometime next week. If I were looking to short this pair, I'd be looking for a retrace tomorrow pre-post NFP and then shorting either tomorrow or next week.

There could be a dip beyond the support to, say 1.024 or thereabouts, just below last months' low, and 40 odd pips below where you're looking to short from, and then you could get a rebound - or a CBN intervention which suddenly spikes the pair up a few 100 pips, like the Swissy today, leaving your short orders in a pretty bad state.

In essence, if I were trading this pair, I wouldn't be shorting from 1.062, but with good mm, and a stop loss, you do what you think is right.

Good luck.

IbkA

I'm looking at my USD/CAD Chart and it looks like we touched a low that we have no seen since july 08. Does anyone have any ideas on how to trade this setup or is just to risky? Looks like strong support at the 1.0062 level. Would it be unwise to short this if it breaks this key level?

Any ideas?

Thanks

wdevauld Apr 7, 2010 3:04pm | Post# 3

Ideas on current price levels
 
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The longer term trend on USD/CAD is undoubtedly down, as the trend for the past year has shown us.

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The current price level is at the bottom of a mutli-month channel, and is also at the incredibly important parity level. If ever there was time for a pullback this is it. I increase my odds by not trading against the longer term trends, so I'm out of any positions in this pair at this time. If I was looking to go long, I'd wait for a break above 1.0075, but I'm going to wait for a further move to the upside, and a resumption of the downward trend before I initiate any new positions.

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Cotton-I-Jo Apr 8, 2010 4:08am | Post# 4

...!?
 
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Is it Time to go short....!?




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TrueBlue Apr 8, 2010 7:49am | Post# 5

Is it Time to go short....!?



Hi Cotton-I-Jo; well I don't know if it's time for anyone else, but I'm in for a short now and looking to a confirmation of 9975 bottom. The 4hr chart looks to me like it may want to go back and put in a positive MacD divergence at the base before heading North. The Hrly is overbought; and the 15m chart already has quite a substantial negative divergence; heralding a down move. Hopefully I'm on the right train going South.......many pips to you

Cotton-I-Jo Apr 9, 2010 3:22am | Post# 6

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It would be a nice area to go long .....






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TrueBlue Apr 9, 2010 5:20am | Post# 7

It would be a nice area to go long .....





Hi there Cotton-I-Jo; well it's getting a little tense now and with news coming out I'm really struggling to hold fast to my target of 9975 but I've already taken good profit on the majority of the move, so I'm happy. Good luck with your Bull trade buddy; there's nowhere else much for it to go after the 4hr divergence completes except up - and I'll be on it then too

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 11:03am | Post# 8

Anybody out there have an open position on this pair?

I am long @ 0.998725

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 11:11am | Post# 9

I am going to stick with this trade for a while if I have to.

Add more Longs around @ 0.9900 or so if I have to.

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 11:56am | Post# 10

I am going to stick with this trade for a while if I have to.

Add more Longs around @ 0.9900 or so if I have to.
No wonder this thing keeps falling...

Your doing exactly what the big guys want. Why the commitment? You married to U/Cad ...

I think the CAD is WAY overvalued myself but I wont stay aboard a sinking ship.

I don't see any form of support until we arrive at the 9942-9938 area ....... assuming we ever get there.

MONEY > Ego

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 12:16pm | Post# 11

No wonder this thing keeps falling...
I seriously doubt that myuy small trade has any impact on the Long Term decline. Hell, the decline started long before I entered my Long position.

Your doing exactly what the big guys want. Why the commitment? You married to U/Cad ...

If you actually knew what the Big Boys know and what they are going to do (which you claim) you would be a multi-millionaire by now with better things to do than talking to a nobody (in trading terms) such as me.

I am not married to her but she is my Mistress.




I don't see any form of support until we arrive at the 9942-9938 area ....... assuming we ever get there.




like I said above, I will wait till 0.9900 (it would not be a surprise if it gets there) before adding more Long positions.

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 12:27pm | Post# 12

LOL ....

I've no time to run on with you dude... whatever works for you, to each their own.


Again, hahaha

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 12:42pm | Post# 13

Whatever.

Only time will tell.

Even if this ends up being a losing trade, it will be a loss that I will consider to be manageable.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 12:56pm | Post# 14

Whatever.

Only time will tell.

Even if this ends up being a losing trade, it will be a loss that I will consider to be manageable.
i think it should be fine. usd/chf dipped 50 pips below parity before going up to 1.08

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 1:08pm | Post# 15

Hey Clouds.

Usaly I only see your posts on the AUD thread which just happens to be the best thread here. I'm telling ya, if your going to trade the AUD/USD, forget the so called experts, instead read that thread. The so called amatuers outperform the so called experts on a regular basis.




No, this trade is not going as planned. But, before I entered this trade I was more than willing to let it go down to 0.9900. I thought I spotted an uptrend but I was wrong.

Went Long 1/2 my usual amount and will add more if the price or a strong move on the upside happens.

Long term I see the CAD gaining on the doller.

Short term I see 1.0039.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 1:17pm | Post# 16


Long term I see the CAD gaining on the doller.

Short term I see 1.0039.
well - long-term i see aud as a range .94-.86 double top breaking .86 and further into .70ish. cad long-term to test the 100 SMA on monthly at 1.20

yorygog Apr 14, 2010 1:26pm | Post# 17

i think it should be fine. usd/chf dipped 50 pips below parity before going up to 1.08
Thank you for your encouragement, it is appreciated.



yorygog Apr 14, 2010 1:34pm | Post# 18

well - long-term i see aud as a range .94-.86 double top breaking .86 and further into .70ish. cad long-term to test the 100 SMA on monthly at 1.20
Thanks!

Still working from those yearly charts i see.

I aint got the patience for it but I admire the fortitude it takes to hold a long term position; to be down 500 pips....no panic, and take it all in stride.

Clouds Apr 14, 2010 1:52pm | Post# 19

Thanks!

Still working from those yearly charts i see.

I aint got the patience for it but I admire the fortitude it takes to hold a long term position; to be down 500 pips....no panic, and take it all in stride.
never been even close to down that many pips. i have long-term views, and daily views. i dont hold positions that long, but i can still have an opinion for long term view. having different time frame views helps me stay sane.

Warwick Apr 14, 2010 2:06pm | Post# 20

for the record yory... i was actually being nice. although my post may have came off as snobbish. but anyways.


long @ 0.9966 ... sl at 9971.

second long @ .9942/38 when the above gets stopped out for +~5 pips.

Although I have to wonder at what point will the bears stop getting fed...


It appears the majority of longs are still holding unto their positions. (Common information)


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