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-   -   XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222032)

Ll1979 Jul 22, 2019 9:27am | Post# 51301

GOLD IN SEARCH OF A FIRM DIRECTION, STUCK IN A RANGE BELOW $1430 AREA
22 July 2019, 15:31

 

  1. Tempered Fed rate cut expectations underpinned the USD and capped gains.
  2. Improving risk sentiment further weighed on the metal’s safe-haven status.
  3. Global growth concerns extend some support and helped limit deeper losses.

Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the mid-European session on Monday and remained confined in a narrow trading band, around the $1425 region.

After Friday's sharp intraday pullback from fresh multi-year tops, a combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus and led to a subdued/range-bound price action on the first day of a new trading week.

The US Dollar remained supported by the fact that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Friday ruled out the possibilities of 50 bps rate cut and said that the current US economic condition doesn't warrant a larger cut.
The comments forced investors to scale back expectations for an aggressive Fed rate cut move at the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting on July 30-31 and drove flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
This coupled with a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by a positive tone around equity markets, further weighed on the precious metal's relative safe-haven status and kept a lid on any positive move.

The negative factors, to some extent, were largely offset by concerns over the effect of heightened trade tensions on the outlook for growth, which seemed to be the only factor that might help limit the downside, at least for now.
In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, the broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might produce some short-term trading opportunities through the US session on Monday.


jinsen Jul 22, 2019 11:19am | Post# 51302

Anyone making money from ping pong. Big event next week.. Ping pong untill next week...

SurfsUp Jul 22, 2019 12:30pm | Post# 51303

Anyone making money from ping pong. Big event next week.. Ping pong untill next week...
I guess I'll pull out my paddles. Was hoping for a bit more of a wild ride this week, but we'll do what we need to do.

Ll1979 Jul 22, 2019 3:37pm | Post# 51304

GOLD HOLDS TIGHT ABOVE $1,400 AS MARKET WEIGHS UP 25 AND 50 BASIS POINT CUT SCENARIOS
22 July 2019, 22:34

 

  1. Gold supported at the symmetrical triangle's prior resistance.
  2. Eyes on US data, (GDP), and geopolitics, Iran/US/China.

Gold prices have entered the final hour of Wall Street's trade on Monday, around flat for the session at $1,427, having stuck to a tight $1,422 and $1,430 range for the day. The focus remains on the Federal reserve at the end of this month, as the market weighs up the odds of between the 25bp and 50bp cut scenarios. Precious metals are bound by the Dollar and risk sentiment also, with the latest developments in trade wars moving towards a stake mate once again between the US and China, with a particular focus on Iran also.
There were reports today that Iran had arrested 17 spies who the nation says were working for the CIA and sentenced some of them to death. Iran's intelligence ministry had said the suspects had been collecting information in the nuclear, military and other sectors:

  1. US Pres. Trump: getting harder to ‘want to make a deal on Iran’

With respect to the trade wars, Reuters reported earlier today that U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he believed Chinese President Xi Jinping has acted “very responsibly” with the protests in Hong Kong over an extradition bill that could see people from the territory sent to China for trial.

"We’re working on trade deals right now. We’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

"The yellow metal will likely trade choppy between $1390-1440/oz as this week's economic data and equity earnings influence market interest rate expectations one way or the other. But we ultimately see any dips in gold as buying opportunities as the underlying growth trajectory remains on a slowing path and as global central banks opt for easier policy," analysts at TD Securities explained.
Eyes on US data, (GDP)
From here, markets will be watching economic data this week, (Gross Domestic Produce), as Fed speakers go into the blackout ahead of the July FOMC meeting.
"We expect GDP to advance a near-trend 2.0% q/q saar in Q2, down from a strong 3.1% print in Q1. Unlike the prior quarter, we expect consumer spending to be a key engine of growth, rebounding to about 4% after a wobbly start to the year. Business investment, however, continued to slow due to heightened uncertainty while inventories and net exports were likely a drag on growth,"
analysts at TD Securities explained.

Gold levels
Meanwhile, the price continues to skid along with the symmetrical triangle's prior resistance following a breakout through the 1450 level and a fade back to the symmetrical triangle where price consolidates around 1430 as a key support level again. If the price breaks below 1420/25, bears will then look for a run below the 1400 psychological level. The 23.6% Fibo of the latest swing lows and highs are located at 1398. The $1,373/76 zone comes into play there after which meets the 19th June spike correction lows and the 38.2% Fibo of the same swing ranges.


Ll1979 Jul 22, 2019 4:04pm | Post# 51305

Inserted Video

bigtx Jul 22, 2019 4:30pm | Post# 51306

am shorting silver for just 26 pips as you can see the chart bellow. {image}
Curious where you started that top line on your chart?

EventsTrader Jul 22, 2019 4:55pm | Post# 51307

1 Attachment(s)
I was expecting a continuation towards the 25bp, after we saw the market pivot on Friday. The fact that we haven't shift more tells us those that are in the 50bp camp are waiting for a trigger. There's a lot of time between now and Friday, but so far it's looking like the market will be putting a lot of focus and emphasis on Friday's GDP report. Since we are in the black out period, we won't hear from any Fed members. The only significant data between now and the meeting on the 31st is GDP and PCE inflation. There are other data figures that could move the market, but not that the Fed has mentioned they are monitoring in order to make policy decisions.

Bullard, the most dovish Fed member, at least most dovish voting member, came out in support of only cutting by 25bp. That's very significant because if the Fed were considering cutting by 50bp, he'd be outspoken about his support of it.

Since the market opened yesterday, we've actually shifted a little towards 50bp, but we remain relatively the same. Click to Enlarge

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auricforecas Jul 22, 2019 6:03pm | Post# 51308

I still bet, as quite some time, bet on the stronger USD by the day.. Some correlations, by the model of 10years... seem to STRONGLY indicate that..
Although I might admit the EXACT mechanism are not so clear... As this is how the (honest) statistics works... It just INDICATES... without REAL/proven explanation, just interpretation.... But, the fundamentals, how I understand them, speak in that favour... For example, PIGS are a disaster, do not be fooled by the glamour, they were just silenced, giving them food, backed by debt, to silence temp... EU doesn't seem to agree on anything... at best they OBEY... US have growing problems too but they still have better chance... and to be honest, even though there are some promising alternatives to USD, there just isn't now... CN and RU do have the potential, but the TRUST issue will be hardest to overcome, since they can basically do ANYTHING overnight... Thing might change for the USD too, but it just isn't so yet... My opinion of course (If I have to remark that anyway)... Also, the US has the longer history of radical "tightening"... left people to their fate... EU want to save everyone, which might affect its stability if too many countries abuse this... Brexit made many countries encouraged... Italy talking/threating about exit..

But those things are longer-term...

Where I find reasoning int his 3m+ USD stronger by the day, at least compared to EUR, is that... whatever FAIL, FED might do, ECB can't wait to AT LEAST counter it... so that the ratio(s) remains the same.. and we are in eurusd decline atm... so they would just (both) kick the can down the road... for the "next" guy..
Also, as long as Trump is behind the wheel, I wouldn't be concerned about US(D) too much. He might have issues but at least we know what we are dealing with. He does this for LIFETIME.. and that is saying something.. He even knows that this RATE drop will HURT the economy in the longrun but he is willing to take this risk in hopes to COUNTER them in the 2nd or 3rd (joke term with grand-slam ideas of his... that he can not implement now.... sucking for 2nd term.. After/if he gets it.. he would not have to suck to people anymore, unless he finds ways for the 3rd elections where he can participate

Ok I wrote too much, I do not even want to discuss/argue... specially not before OCTOBER 2019... where it will be rather CLEAR... who was right or wrong..
And I do love that we do not (all) agree.... I need the OTHER SIDE to STABILISE the rise (of USD).. because should ti rise to quickly... interventions might come and -fu the market...

So WHY.. Price prediction model of 10 years says so... 3m+ stronger USD... and should things be equally (stable..) that would mean.. decline of GOLD maybe, in USD at least..

P.S. Those reasonings are just SOME, quickly.. I could write for hours, days... pages, books, about it A lot of material.. But let's wait what happens firs...

Mr.Metal Jul 22, 2019 7:50pm | Post# 51309

I still bet, as quite some time, bet on the stronger USD by the day.. Some correlations, by the model of 10years... seem to STRONGLY indicate that.. Although I might admit the EXACT mechanism are not so clear... As this is how the (honest) statistics works... It just INDICATES... without REAL/proven explanation, just interpretation.... But, the fundamentals, how I understand them, speak in that favour... For example, PIGS are a disaster, do not be fooled by the glamour, they were just silenced, giving them food, backed by debt, to silence temp......
Dude, whatever you say, and whatever model you have, may be or may not be true, but is no way helpful for this thread, I am in no way trying to offend you.
I am sorry to say but, we are not fortunate enough to be big pocket investors to bet for October / macro events.

Give me logic, and help me with daily or hourly trends.

EventsTrader Jul 22, 2019 8:21pm | Post# 51310

1 Attachment(s)
Gold just broke some support below this week's low. Equity markets are strong, especially the Nikkei. We could see some selling here in gold.
Click to Enlarge

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montygoldy Jul 22, 2019 8:26pm | Post# 51311

Monday a red day for me down 500 bucks...

Boo15 Jul 22, 2019 8:27pm | Post# 51312

Gold just broke some support below this week's low. Equity markets are strong, especially the Nikkei. We could see some selling here in gold. {image}
Down down

Froggy Jul 22, 2019 8:33pm | Post# 51313

Monday a red day for me down 500 bucks...
Today is a new day mate, use your extreme gut feel and stick to the rules!

Stay green

jinsen Jul 22, 2019 8:34pm | Post# 51314

Possible 1420 target. HSH IN 4 hourly

EventsTrader Jul 22, 2019 8:37pm | Post# 51315

1 Attachment(s)
Monday a red day for me down 500 bucks...
Monday was a tough day for everybody trading gold. Whenever it's stuck in such a tight range, it's a tough market to trade. Like Froggy said, it's a new day. Good luck!
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EventsTrader Jul 22, 2019 8:43pm | Post# 51316

Just a heads up, the SHFE is about to open in 17 minutes. We should see some volatility in gold when it does.

montygoldy Jul 22, 2019 9:14pm | Post# 51317

I am not joining the selling action right now but looking to buy around 1410-13..

Aussi Jul 22, 2019 9:31pm | Post# 51318

well it looks like the buy stops gone so now it might go after the sell stops but who knows lol

Boo15 Jul 22, 2019 9:53pm | Post# 51319

48 pips bagged thank you goldie

dweb Jul 22, 2019 10:16pm | Post# 51320

1 Attachment(s)
Gold, H4. stay green
Donell Jones - [GOLD] U Know What's Up
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