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-   -   XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222032)

jimobiwan May 9, 2010 9:06pm | Post# 81

short @1199.8

EUR just taken down 100pips.

XTrade May 10, 2010 6:03am | Post# 82

As mentioned earlier, I am not surprised to see the Gold price come off a bit on some nice rallies to the upside Euro/Usd "fibre" and cable (G/U) over 100 pip runs up on tonight's LDN session.

This is healthy and a necessary part to the Price action of Gold.

What I love about this situation for Gold is "if" these Majors continue to rally
(also went short Swissy) "and" the DXY takes a nosedive, renewed Gold buying will continue in USD weakness and the inverse dollar/Gold correlation will track on again.

XTrade May 10, 2010 6:11am | Post# 83

We are still in the uptrend channel with a current midpoint around
1200 - The Price now passes thru here quite easily, it was primarily psychological resistance,

bottom area around 1170 with supports at 1175 before hand and 1165 as Firmer
support..

Top is above 1215 currently. Around 1125 I am looking at for the upcoming sessions if things continue on track.

There is support on the H4 with the 50 SMA or EMA nice place ("area" - it does go below) to look for some long entries...


Use your discretion. Charts later today - Quick nap time - then need to run out,
be back later.
X-

steroidman May 10, 2010 8:12am | Post# 84

Now that I am solidly up. I am going to close half my position. But I still maintain, that gold is going to get crushed. I just get antsy sometimes and want to taste the money. Until they take forex statements at the grocery store, I have to cash in some chips.

In terms of the secret to my success. It is half fundamental and half technical. I can get into it more in the future. I actually have a site.

Bernanke_Sr May 10, 2010 8:22am | Post# 85

Gold should hit 1183.50 today.
I am short... I cant see gold getting much higher than 1200 today.

Down baby down i say.

__UnknowN__ May 10, 2010 10:38am | Post# 86

Equities
 
Woke up today to a very impressive +400 point rally in US equities this morning.

Despite the positive news from EUR this weekend, I am leaning towards believing that this rally will not last long. (i.e. past this week) The sharp surge in equities is highly uncharacteristic of rallies in the past 6-9 months and we are more likely due for the start of a bear market.

Gold should continue to rally if and when equities reverse, as I see it this has been the pattern lately.

Good luck to all in trading, lets see where equities take us as this is the key atm.


As mentioned earlier, I am not surprised to see the Gold price come off a bit on some nice rallies to the upside Euro/Usd "fibre" and cable (G/U) over 100 pip runs up on tonight's LDN session.

This is healthy and a necessary part to the Price action of Gold.

What I love about this situation for Gold is "if" these Majors continue to rally
(also went short Swissy) "and" the DXY takes a nosedive, renewed Gold buying will continue in USD weakness and the inverse dollar/Gold correlation will track on again.

XTrade May 10, 2010 6:16pm | Post# 87

Went long early this AM (EST) around 1188 actually and took off part of the trade earlier @ appx 1202.


Gold should hit 1183.50 today.
I am short... I cant see gold getting much higher than 1200 today.

Down baby down i say.

XTrade May 10, 2010 6:27pm | Post# 88

OK what is your reasoning?

The price shed a bit from 1211, no close below 1185 now back above 1200.

currently appx 1203. So?

You still do not seem to want to add any of your reasoning fundamental or technical and have an actual discussion. So what is the point?

If gold tanks I'll be short after I have some confirmations.

After a nice run breaking the largely psych 1200 level it is completely normal to have some retracement.


Now that I am solidly up. I am going to close half my position. But I still maintain, that gold is going to get crushed. I just get antsy sometimes and want to taste the money. Until they take forex statements at the grocery store, I have to cash in some chips.

In terms of the secret to my success. It is half fundamental and half technical. I can get into it more in the future. I actually have a site.

XTrade May 10, 2010 6:45pm | Post# 89

Feds probing JPMorgan trades in silver pit
 
HA! even the NY Post is catching on

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...OJpB55M7Rh9vwM

Feds probing JPMorgan trades in silver pit
Federal agents have launched parallel criminal and civil probes of JPMorgan Chase and its trading activity in the precious metals market, The Post has learned.
The probes are centering on whether or not JPMorgan, a top derivatives holder in precious metals, acted improperly to depress the price of silver, sources said.
The Commodities Futures Trade Commission is looking into civil charges, and the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division is handling the criminal probe, according to sources, who did not wish to be identified due to the sensitive...

pipinz May 10, 2010 8:04pm | Post# 90

do you think gold will break 1230 this week. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the resistance levels around 1230ish?

XTrade May 10, 2010 9:11pm | Post# 91

THere is a possibility, We may see some consolidation first and the price may range as some of the madness from last week settles.

do you think gold will break 1230 this week. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the resistance levels around 1230ish?

XTrade May 11, 2010 3:12am | Post# 92

some fundamental points
 
The all time high is around 1225, so you are in the area. This was not a close however and we have recently produced multiple bullish closes on multiple higher time frames. ie: daily - weekly - monthly

Gold has already hit new highs priced in GBP and EUR.

Part of what I call "the Perfect Storm for Higher Gold" by me, which consists of multiple fundies and multiple tech / chart ideals is at hand.

Here are just a few of the "winds" creating the storm.

1. Uncertainty in Foreign Currencies namely EUR / GBP / JPY -normally used as a hedge / means of preservation of purchasing power to USD are in down-trends, thus, USD moves to Gold
2. However, the USD and GOLD have a "typically" strong inverse relationship, thus, if and when these majors EUR / GBP - Turn around this will bring the Dollar index down in turn creating again renewed attraction for GOLD (Yen is tricky and CHF has Swiss Bank intervention all the time) Remember the Euro is multiple COUNTRIES and the US is one)-
This creates somewhat a Paradox for Gold where fundamentally it = Win - Win.
3. The 10 year chart. -- The rise of Gold is evident on the 10 year quite explicitly a massive bull.
4. An alternative store of value to currencies overall
5. The EU situation issue is Just unraveling
6. Things in the US are not stellar,
High unemployment / massive national debt, mortgages, housing prices etc, does not go away overnight
7. Gold as a physical investment has the same purpose of trading, just on a higher TF is a tangible asset, with physical many physical buyers looking for a dip to buy. What is the EU doing?
8. Smart money does not look to lose money, rather create more, and preserve wealth.


Ultimately 1230 will be taken - we are almost there.
Not to say we won't see a dip or I don't "hedge" or take shorts.


do you think gold will break 1230 this week. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the resistance levels around 1230ish?

jimobiwan May 11, 2010 3:13am | Post# 93

Au is looking resilient. I have set a sell for 1222.2 going into possible resistance levels. Weekly and Daily look overbought and it is near record high of 1227 so hoping lots of talk of possible major double top will slap this down hard. It is also my long term channel top. It poked its head up twice and 1222 will again be above upper channel limit. Seasonals also on side and so is the timing of the Au supercycles.

Looking for this to go to 1165 (18DMA) as TP.

SL - if there is news i may cut 1224 or may add short at 1236 (large day range, frothy top)

Bernanke_Sr May 11, 2010 4:54am | Post# 94

Went long early this AM (EST) around 1188 actually and took off part of the trade earlier @ appx 1202.
I had to close my short order and enter long above 1202... So that was good but I am still not gonna enter another long unless we are above 1212ish.
1212.40 might be a tough resistance for gold today.

Les Lau May 11, 2010 5:05am | Post# 95

1 Attachment(s)
Hi, I am new to this thread.
Here's my analysis for xau/usd.

For Gold I treat it not only trading but as an invesment.
So i would go Long(Buy).

I enter position every time price breaking the downward Trend Line.
D1 Chart.

First Long during 1165+ and already let go some position.
The rest i plan to hold for middle to long term. Minimum few weeks.
Click to Enlarge

Name: gold2.gif
Size: 20 KB

XTrade May 11, 2010 5:24am | Post# 96

Now solidly down. Should have closed it all if it was "10 contracts" or more. At 1185 area.
If you are trading futures, you are paying commission and in the red. If trading FX gold you are at BE, maybe.

Normally I would not say anything. But.......
With such a Large position I wouldn't want to see you go broke in a bull market........



Now that I am solidly up. I am going to close half my position. But I still maintain, that gold is going to get crushed. I just get antsy sometimes and want to taste the money. Until they take forex statements at the grocery store, I have to cash in some chips.

In terms of the secret to my success. It is half fundamental and half technical. I can get into it more in the future. I actually have a site.

XTrade May 11, 2010 5:36am | Post# 97

PERFECT entry,

Great thanks for stopping in and welcome to the thread.

I am more a longish term Gold trader as well but often like to scalp for 500 pips in between,

Hopefully you will stick around and contribute.
X
Hi, I am new to this thread.
Here's my analysis for xau/usd.

For Gold I treat it not only trading but as an invesment.
So i would go Long(Buy).

I enter position every time price breaking the downward Trend Line.
D1 Chart.

First Long during 1165+ and already let go some position.
The rest i plan to hold for middle to long term. Minimum few weeks.

XTrade May 11, 2010 5:52am | Post# 98

Looking to buy dips.. NY Should be very interesting, Sentiments are not Good for the EU or GBP especially after yesterday's performance.

I would look for more gains in equites and gold.

Buying any major dip, to a solid support.

XTrade May 11, 2010 6:24am | Post# 99

OK chart coming.
PLEASE refresh this post for the chart on the current channel.
thanks!

XTrade May 11, 2010 6:49am | Post# 100

Sorry but we are explosive here and I just moved Take Profit for a 2nd time.


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