Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Interactive Trading (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137)
-   -   XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222032)

XTrade Feb 22, 2010 7:59pm | Post# 1

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
 
Hello All, I noticed there is no thread for XAU (Gold) XAG (Silver) "FX" metals in interactive trading. I thought it would be great to have a place to discuss these.Feel free to post about AU / AG crossed non USD as well. Metals are more and more volatile especially Gold, these days and offer a commodity departure while trading on an FX platform. More and more brokers are offering XAU/G. <will save as a relic. need space here things are changing. edit: not anymore - august 2013 + now
there is no leverage. Futures are essentially cheaper for US citizens to trade these days. relic post: I will try to update the thread periodically with fundamentals, TA, reading/links, through the days. Metals can gross or wipe out some nice pips from your account faster than certain currencies. I suggest demo trading first, before live, if you are not familiar with the way metals move or what drives them besides the inverse relationship to fiat currencies especially the USD. So to start, early today we hit a monthly high on XAU/USD of just about 1131
then retreated back down to the 1110/6 range area. Where we rest now (1114 @ time of post) XAU/U opened Higher this week after a strong move up last Friday gaining back against the USD after the Fed's Discount Rate change info, sent it almost vertically down from 1124 to strong support at the 1098 area (1100 psych support). good Luck to all,
stop in! -----
XTrade ---- Edit - end of JULY 2013. - WOW Funny to look back.. So we went from the 1000s almost to 2000 then back down. Since the first post. In any case I am cleaning this up a bit. and adding new LINKS FOR NEWBIES.......

In some of the OLDER posts here I used to be able to link a live GIF chart file and noticed one day that everytime the thread is refreshed the chart would too.BAD, for some of the old posts because the charts don't match, GOOD for Quotes. NOW that they changed a bunch of stuff I can't get the actual charts up here anymore! EVEN though the OLD ones still refresh. So despite all my attempts here are live chart LINKS. Going to figure this out.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nysilver.gif


---> Post on QE and "tapering" priced in or not? December 2013 <----
--- > POST ON WHAT A FAIR VALUE OF THE YELLOW METAL Might BE TODAY SEPTEMBER 2013 Here's the post link
--- > POST on USING THE GSR / GOLD to SILVER RATIO to trade PHYSICAL metal

Basic characteristics of GOLD click me SILVER click me

HERE IS HOW TO BREAK DOWN THE PIP VALUE OF GOLD MOVEMENTS USING 10 USD Swings and a "SPOT" FX broker
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6151

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE THREAD RULES:
1. SCALPING.
IT is Unnecessary to post in at 1980 0ut @ 81. Yet, high probability scalps welcome, usually for 10 USD moves minimum.
2. NO WILD PUNTING. Please refrain from making unsubstantiated claims.=throwing out a call which makes no sense without any backup ie: chart
3. POST CHARTS - "A Picture is worth 1000nd words"
4. Provide REASONS with BACKUP For your CALLS
5. TREAT OTHERS AS YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE TREATED (CONSIDER THIS THE GOLDEN RULE)
6. IF YOU DON'T KNOW - ASK.

7. Banning - Warnings will be given twice along with a week long vacation unless you are completely out of line and disruptive.
The third warning is silent and permanent. If you disagree with a banning PM me or write directly to Twee.
8. TRY to stay on topic. When the market is dead we can joke, do discuss currencies Other Pms welcome, base metals ok,
9. Black Gold or WTI and Brent are welcome, just when we are slow on gold/silver. Or if it is a great trade opp, post away.
10. No PLAGIARISM - of other people's posts - If using other's material please give credit.
11. NO TROLLING

Furthermore - if you have a PERSONAL gripe or argument with someone take it elsewhere or PUT THEM ON IGNORE.
===================================================================================================

WHAT THE "CME" IS in my brief and here is the Link to their site CME CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
NYMEX or New York Mercantile Exchange and the
COMEX "commodities exchange" division. Here is where all the US GOLD AND SILVER futures are traded. After Hours it is GLOBEX clearing.
Settlement links are listed below.



Sorry Have not been updating this, but waiting for another great symmetrical triangle break to come, will post!
__________Some Winning Trades / Setups / Patterns / ETC.____________Obviously I can't post every winning trade. I will try to keep this section for longer term chart patterns, as well as some quick day trade ones when possible. Thanks for understanding
These are the MONEY MAKERS. They usually do require holding over the weekends.
Trade 1: March Daily Symetrical Triangle on Daily[/b]
a. Setup Chart Price around 1080/90
b. Breach
c. $100 Move - Best older chart I could find in thread to show the price 100 bucks later @ 1180
we all know it hit 1200 not far after.

TradE 2: Cup and Handle -
0. Announcment
1. Formation and trade setup
2. Follow Up
3. Reference

Trade 3: June- Symetrical Triangle
1. Setup
2. Result - I believe this is the right post

No. 4
STACKED Longs
above 1300 on the way to 1400!

April 13/14 2011 - Symmetrical Triangle Setup off Trendline & Record high
1. Set Up
2. Break / Test / Beginning Break
3. Result.
4. End of NY Session Result - New High

2012 SYM T off WEEKLY Channel

NFP setup - dip after release - spinning top - enter - 30 USD candle.
LAST TRADES BEFORE THEY SCREWED US FX TRADERS OUT OF XAU and XAG LEVERAGED TRADING.
Now one micro lot .01 = the spot price of one oz in margin - ie .01 = 1760 in margin
See last post HERE

A. GOLD Clean Plus 100 USD move caught
B. SILVER - got the last pop up too!

XTrade's - NEW SECTION: TOOLS OF THE TRADE: Other Members will be contributing and their posts Linked. (Right now it is slightly out of order and may change as we go along)
Overview again
XTrade:
1. FRACTALS
2. Symmetrical Triangle Play - April 2011 - H4
3. Bullish Flag
4. Lengthy post on Spot vs Futures GOLD

GOLD AND USD CORRELATION STUDIES BY KADC

BEEB's SECTION ON FORKS:
FORK BASICS:
ML – Median Line
UP – Upper Parallel
LP – Lower Parallel
UQ – Upper Quartile – midway between ML and UP
LQ – Lower Quartile – midway between ML and LQ
WL – Warning Line – not shown but equidistant from ML to UP or LP outside the UP or LP
OQ – Outer Quartile – midway between UP or LP and WL
SP – Sliding Parallel – any line following the trajectory of the fork


GC (STANDARD 100 oz FUTURES CONTRACT) 240 and 20 Minute trading - beeb
FORK - More advanced It looks complicated but I'll try to take you through what this fork is telling me and where the trades are.....This is a 20 min SI chart: FOR CHART AND FURTHER READING SEE THIS POST
beeb


Bemac - ICCE
Dashed Blue Lines & Red Lines are Support/Resistance.
ICCE : ?
Intake;
Compression;
Combustion;
Exhaust;

Entirely a concept of Bemac.
There are no Books on it & only a couple of Webinars in the PF.
An Abridged synopsis.
How often have you plotted a Fib & not been surprised to see Compression around the 50% zone? Me to. That's where I started. What if The Current Compression will, in the future, be 50% of the move?

Original post and chart can be found at THIS POST.

Sreym33 trading system for Gold / Silver
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post5327387

______________________________________________________S_E_T_T_L_M_E_T_S_____________________________________________________________________
Futures Gold and Silver Settlement Date Links
a. GC GOLD (This is the standard cntrct = 100 oz) = Settlement b. QO miNY GOLD1. Futures Contract Expirations / "Settlement Dates".
c. SI SILVER = Standard Contract Settlement d. SI miNY SILVER = Settlement

XTrade Feb 22, 2010 8:08pm | Post# 2

1 Attachment(s)
Note: the spreads on trading XAU or XAG seem high. 50 pips is a usual spread.
Let's put this into perspective.

GOLD can move 5 USD in a matter of minutes if not more in volatile markets.
Trades can easily turn into 400 to 1000+ pips on such movements.

Currencies do not fluctuate the same way which we all know!

Thus, making the spread is really not too difficult. Last Fridays move offered opportunities for both scalpers and intra-day trend traders

My chart here has top S/R levels outlined as well as lines added to show the buying patterns.
Also an earlier volatile move down on News from Fed, just to show how volatile XAU can be.
Click to Enlarge

Name: xau_usd_friday_h1.gif
Size: 25 KB

XTrade Feb 22, 2010 8:22pm | Post# 3

Here are some places to read about Gold & Silver, find spot charts, etc.
- I am not affiliated or promoting either site, simply pointing out resources for FF members.

www.kitco.com has an enormous archive of spot AU/AG/PT/PT charts,
commentary, articles, links, etc. Also live charts

Please keep in mind it is best to use your FX broker to see what their spot quote is if you are watching a trade. I have noticed that FX metals will move slightly differently at times to the actual futures / spot price.

www.oilngold.com is a traders resource on AU and Black Gold or Oil I recently came upon.

XTrade Feb 22, 2010 9:46pm | Post# 4

Currently I am looking for a setup. I enjoyed much of the rally on Friday.
Thankfully. However, I not looking to erase pips.

Thus in the immediate sense, we have retraced a bit back down and seem to have found some support @ the 1113 / 1110 areas. I am a bit skeptical about this area holding if it is pressured strongly. Although 1110 is the bottom of the current channel and we just had a nice pop.

While posting I tacked on a small long @ 1111.25 to test the waters, depending I may add or close as a scalp for a few. We'll see...

I often use a 200 - 300 pip trailing stop once a trade gets going to give a small breathing area, yet still lock in some pips.
In a fast moving market you will want something wider, trades will be stopped out and you don't want to pay a 50pip spread all the time.
Depends on motive, style and goal.

XTrade Feb 22, 2010 11:34pm | Post# 5

Added 200pip trailing stop to position taken @ 1111.25

added to position @ 1111.70


We have some ground to make up here.... though I will treat these as scalps as there may be some more down before the next
breakout north.

I have noticed a falling wedge pattern appearing on Higher TF charts followed by a spike. (Last was our all time high 122o Sort of like what the PA is forming now.

Now, if the support @ 1100 and slightly below is breached I will look south to 1050 first, below that, my bias will turn bearish, for a short term
depending on PA and fundamentals. Next I will await breakout and continue to scalp for pips.

edit: position one manually closed @ what seems to be short term resistance around 1116, close to 500 pips

Second: left open to prosper or stop out locking in 200 pips @ least with the PA reaching 1116 - 500 pips touched hence 300 trailing, etc.

100 pips x 1 mini = 10$ --- So Micros can make Nice cash as well!

I didn't realize there were many other threads on XAU.
Night and G/L

XTrade Feb 25, 2010 1:27am | Post# 6

My bullish supports of the 1100 area have been breached.

I rode the train down after a failed attempt to reclaim this area.

Thus I am slightly bearish ATM.

We are now bouncing off a stronger, yet slightly lower,
(YET more important) support level @ 1089

I have reversed shorts to longs (@1091) as of now with an immediate first TP of
TP 1 - 1096

possible TP 2 - 1100 (Support area now acting as resistance)

Using trailing stops if possible of 150 to 200 pips.

SL just below 1089 to 8

It is possible we re-test 1060/50 area if 1100 (and respective 1098) not breached
GL
and Good night!

XTrade Feb 25, 2010 1:55am | Post# 7

1 Attachment(s)
Unfortunately I could not post this before for the short entry...

Trade Reasoning:

1089 Support - Strong / Medium - depending

TL oversold and Now breached. ( Notice after the second fall from 1096 TL was not hit, hard selling pressure, - sold until support)

MA Crossover
Fundamentals: Today's situation in the US, etc. was a no win for gold and continued to fall into the Aussie and
Asian sessions- (ie: inflation, Commod appetite - FED)
Post fundy tomorrow.


Here is a close-up of the current action. Today/ Tonight has been a bit wild for Gold or "XAU"

Depending on PA I will likely add lots in my pursuit to to re-test 1098/1100 same SL area (Higher a tad)
TP on latter 1096/8 area.
Another reality is I am stopped out for a small loss and pay my debt for bucking the trend!
Welp... We'll see.

Always remember in FX and Trading in general, anything can and will happen - there "should be" NO surprises.

Like the US GVMT is always surprised when sales #s Tank or housing tanks or unemployment Rises..
NO SHT. We are in a DAMN recession - Just like the EU and the UK ..... OH, wait 50+ % of the DXY is weighted against the Euro! LOL

Trade stopped out on 150 trailing stop--Small gain- Looking for next entry.........
Click to Enlarge

Name: xau_usd_thurs_am_m15.gif
Size: 28 KB

XTrade Feb 25, 2010 2:54am | Post# 8

Welp-
Still plenty of sellers...

I can't complain and consider it lucky yo buck the trend at a small gain.
Maybe stupid for paying the spread.

Seems like 1094 was the TP for minute traders.

bottomed out again @ 1089

LONG again! For a few pips.

Let's see if 1088/9 turns into temporary double bottom,
or
If it is straight down to 1050....

XTrade Feb 25, 2010 4:26am | Post# 9

1 Attachment(s)
I have become aware of a major "hypothetical" trendline during chart study that seems to be working in unison with recent Fibos plotted showing more definition south.

The trendline was drawn of weekly and comes in to play with recent fibos drawn and rejected.

I have closed all long scalps and I am not willing to ride this one out on confidence alone. Risk appetite is curbed and LDN may headfake or not.

I am not much of a Fibo gold trader as I view the pair differently and it does not
always react to such studies as one might like. More irrational, news and heavy inverse correlation to the USD.

Do not confuse the Gold relation to the USD as Euro correlation to gold.
Yes, they may trend similarly at times, however 100 pip move on Euro does not result in a 10,000 pip move on Gold

Time to sit aside..
Back to bed all - trade smart.

Good luck!
X

Edit: Capped - Fight between 1089 and Downward moves will be interesting - Could go either way
I only have the close up for now - We will see how it pans out TL in blue.

Gold often moves in steps Down 3 up 1 --- Down 4 up1.5 - catch the steps on a nice rally like this and you are GOLDEN
Don't buck the trend too much, use trailing stops so you come out alive.
or vice versa. . . . . . ...
Click to Enlarge

Name: xau_usd_thurs_am_m15_below tl.gif
Size: 25 KB

XTrade Feb 25, 2010 11:45pm | Post# 10

In an effort to not overtrade I closed my long scalps after earlier short exit @ around 4AM EST. The earlier mentioned trendline projection was in play for several M15 candles, yet, XAU (Gold) broke through and bounced off real supports in 1088 / 1090 Area.

We are now back above the 1100 area. Ultimately I am bullish Gold for many reasons yet to be discussed, however bearish trends or correction is necessary and we are "there" now.

the 1050/60 lower support area was not close to being compromised as of yet.

Now, as I skim some news I fell upon this and thoughT, although short it does relate to my comment on the correlation between the Euro & spot Gold in last post.

no affiliation-

FXstreet.com (Sydney) – Gold futures reversed recent losses and have risen for the first time this week. Gold futures for delivery in April rose 1% or USD 11.30 to USD 1108.50 an ounce on speculation that budget deficits in Europe will lift demand in lieu of the EUR.

The EUR has fallen close to 0.6% against the dollar on concerns that Greece’s credit rating may be lowered. The EUR has fallen 5.5% against the dollar this...

Point here is do not get hung up on Euro correlation / PA when trading Gold positions. Chart to follow

XTrade Mar 2, 2010 1:00pm | Post# 11

1 Attachment(s)
Finally we have broken the the past weeks range!!!

We have now broken the upper trendline of the downward channel present on XAU/USD daily chart.

Returned risk appetite and Euro (although trapped in range) recovery from sub .3000 have helped add to the flame!

Taken a few days off XAU while focusing on cable besides one long TP hit.

Now, with some ease on Cable on Fibre I will be watching this area closely and looking to get long on pullback. Or just hop on and ride.
If breakout sustains I will look to target 1150/60 area next

Currently we are paused @ the 1134/5 area of resistance.

EDIT: 1134 Breached!!!!

Quick chart attached
Click to Enlarge

Name: xau_daily_quick chart.gif
Size: 31 KB

XTrade Mar 2, 2010 9:21pm | Post# 12

1136 resistance sold, originally met by buyers on first round, Now lying @ 1132/3 lower trendline support area which we are hitting now.

Gold does not always react in the fashion we may want, like or perceive,
nevertheless, risk = reward (or loss!) thus,

taking:
Long Scalp - in @ 1133.45

I do not want to outlay stops for others so -

Potential stop area playing off this line

= below 1131 support area Tight stop-

Not a high risk trade.
Subsequently if 1131 area breached and held I will consider short to potential 1120 area...

Target/s - retest 1136/7 respectively - and up

If stopped out I will eye short or look to lower level supports for next long.
Tonight had a nice open for scalping the "top."

EDIT: Looks like we enter RANGE!

DXY helpful in gauging inverse correlation USD/GOLD

XTrade Mar 2, 2010 11:53pm | Post# 13

Better Late than Never!

We have Liftoff!

1132 support holds as of yet. Bears have stepped aside temporarily.

Lets see if we can take 1134/6 first.

To ensure profit on scalps use trailing stops of your desired means.
On larger positions a 200 pip TS can work nicely. You want to ensure breathing room.

200 pips is fairly tight, however will suffice when scalping... We can get tighter, and use BE or even a TS that leaves 10 or 20 pips.
Depending on lot size and goal.

NOTE EURO USD has yet to budge on this Uptick
EDIT: 2 Now Euro Follows GOLD up slightly....
Cable as well. Not sufficient correlation. I agree they can trend similarly and I am working on the overlay chart....

XTrade Mar 3, 2010 12:10am | Post# 14

One way to look at it is

GOLD = The True GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY

the Euro is many nations, Yet only European,

EVERYONE Speaks GOLD!

Edit: 1 Lot closed @ indecisive PA 1134.50 TP
1 open

1134 serving as slight support on low volume trade

We need to go a bit lower to gain more steam and attract more buyers

However on todays breakout I am looking for some possible correction to come and shorts may be favorable.
Scalping towards the uptrend is always a good idea.

Breach posted in earlier charts:
BULL or bear patterns buying and selling can be easily figured out using simple S/R
similar to fibos
Do not treat as normal Currency pair. Gold is a tangible commodity with other uses and driving factors besides a store of value,
Such as eco 101 supply and demand (just an example)
Look for weakness in either trend for scalp or multi day trade.
Place order - Place stop below firm support - Use realistic targets and Trailing stops to ensure profit
Trade smart.

Gold Bull is Back!

jointhepips Mar 3, 2010 2:02am | Post# 15

i personally thought Gold would go backwards for a while but I think that you could be right about a bull run

XTrade Mar 3, 2010 2:12am | Post# 16

See my chart 3 posts back. We have broken through an important trendline on the daily.

Gold has a tendency to move sideways at times and disobey lines on shorter TFs
however on the daily it is clearly breached.

Along with todays move as well as the USD pullback AND
sustained gains (ie 1050 / 1100 / 1116/20) we have pulled back and been rejected so far at lower prices.

The next run is underway.
1226 is the ultimate target to breach first.
We have lower areas first obviously to encounter.

Thank You for posting!!!

i personally thought Gold would go backwards for a while but I think that you could be right about a bull run

banana9009 Mar 3, 2010 3:33am | Post# 17

http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/l...fo/gold15h.gif

XTrade Mar 3, 2010 5:21am | Post# 18

Banana, I like the parameters.

1134 should work in favor of bulls as resistance turned support. I am setting sights on 1160 next

Nothing like waking TPs Hit!

TP of remaining lot 1137.75 - Hit
Later added small lots(before bed!) 1137.95 (just made it now that I look)

One manual close (1136.30)

We are working on yesterday's high right now. And capped as of yet JUST below 1138.... (closes) traded into 1138

Cable TP 5054 Hit (This number 5050 may prove an interesting area)

PA retreating rapidly, asleep but still "alive" for breakout

Back to bed! Good luck all.
More tomorrow,
X-

PS catch the bull and ride!

Nomi1 Mar 3, 2010 5:35am | Post# 19

xtrade

thanks for these posts. i am actually long at 1137 looking at a target of 1142. just owndering do u think i am safe or can gold go down today. thanks.

XTrade Mar 3, 2010 8:35am | Post# 20

edit: Sorry for delayed response, was your TP hit?
As mentioned in earlier posts trailing stops are a nice way to lock in profit, when market gets indecisive.

You are quite welcome, thank you for coming by.

Gold currently trading @ 1141.25 So you are just about at target
last dip to 1137 appears to be bought up!

THis can be an area of resistance looking @ daily. However we are just getting through, A close above would suggest further push to retest 1158/60 area in my view.

Gold also can snap back down. On a nice run I like to lock in profits where possible, wait for dip - and re-enter while market consolidates.

This latest run up has shown strength.

Hope this helps, we are in an interesting area here


© Forex Factory