Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas
Iím starting this new thread cause it would be much easier for me to post something at one place instead of replying on numerous e-mails or commenting on different issues in many other threads scattered all over the forum. Here I will be posting some of my ideas, thoughts and comments regarding my method, my market views and some general FX trading issues. Everyone is welcome to participate. Before posting here your questions and comments, please understand that I do not provide any educational or trading advisory services and always express my personal opinion only. Also please note, that my method is not a mechanical trading system. It is a discretionary technique mostly based on TA, but also includes a number of systematic elements and certain rules. Therefore, at least some basic knowledge of the theory of TA is a must for every participant willing to post here a question or a comment regarding the marketís behavior. Common sense is welcome as well.
ok, my approach is to pic the USDCHF and GBPUSD pair and ask u to make a TA of it so we can learn how to draw proper lines and analyse etc etc
so, the current USDCHF And GBPUSD. What do u think master Igrok?
USD/CHF is likely to reach 1.16-1.15 zone before turning up again to target 1.41-43 area. 1.13 level seem to be out of reach. Draw the line on monthly chart from the top of 1989 to the top of 2000, then take a parallel and place it on the bottom of 1995 and you will understand why.
some of us don't know your system
what are the rules?
USD/CHF is likely to reach 1.16-1.15 zone before turning up again to target 1.41-43 area. 1.13 level seem to be out of reach. Draw the line on monthly chart from the top of 1989 to the top of 2000, then take a parallel and place it on the bottom of 1995 and you will understand why.[/quote]
I'm Just reading Beat the Odd's and stumbled on your thread. Oh Yea!
In your book you suggest a chart software (Omega Super Charts) I am a newby and am wondering if possibly there is an available free internet chart provider that would suit my needs for a time. Great to see your thread and am looking so forward to the future. Thanks for your attention to the matter of those of us with less experience. Your assistance is greatly appreciated.
I'll try to be specific with questions in the future.
wow, talk about long term
But those longer-term views often make a lot of sense. The market usually provides opportunities to take a longer-term position targeting in excess of 1000 pips once or twice a year. It often gives a huge advantage in terms of r/r ratio as well. For example, that obvious bottom on swissy in the very end of 2004 I projected in advance. It allowed me to enter a long position at 1.1295 with stops just about 40-50 pips but on this single trade I have been able to take the entire yearly range in 2005 with that single position. Last year equally obvious third touch of a very major supportive trendline on the EUR/USD at around 1.1860 had also offered a perfect opportunity to take a longer-term long position with miscroscopic stops. Those "trades of opportunity" are also in line with my templates, but unlike those used for intraday trading, they offer the best r/r ratio money can buy.
I am sure this will be a valuable thread here on FF! There will be a lot of very keen traders here willing to suck up some of your experience
(BTW, just ordered your book! I knew I'd heard your name somewhere before)
ok igrok so looking on the daily charts, what is your analysis for euro and swissy
Good to see your thread here. I finished reading 'beat the odds'. Not sure if forum rules allow me to compliment the book here.
Any way I would like to know your medium and short term view on Eur/Jpy.
'beat the odds'
What is this 'beat the odds' ? is it book? where can I get it?
But this is just a projection. An educated guess, if you wish. Nothing more than that. You have to keep in mind that TA should be used not to determine where the market is going. TA purpose is to develop a trading plan with all the necessary attributes such as where to enter a position, where to place stops and what would be the target. So, those projections above just show that being USD short is preferable for the moment. The real trading signals for me come from the templates. Whenever the market chart matches a certain template then I get into it.
Fantastic. Woke up in the morning (I'm in GMT+2 zone) - and here it is, your new thread, already alive and populated. Good luck to us all!
I feel that I'm a somewhat TA-challenged (not to say handicapped) person. I understand and use trendlines, s/r, channels and their middles - and that's all. I have hard time identifying and trusting more complicated price formations. I hope this thread will help me overcome my blindness.
I'll pick on the following excerpt to ask several basic questions:
2. A more general question re. price formations. Consider a diamond bottom. Many times it has a head and shoulders inside. Frequently it contains a double bottom. Isnít an asymmetrical diamond similar to a flag? Isnít its right-hand side identified a triangle? Now, the question that I always have re. such formations is: donít all these shapes reflect something more basic? For example, it seems to me that (bottom) diamonds appear when the price travels down and up within channel borders, meets a support line, hesitates Ė and then breaks out (or simply continues down the channel, if the upward breakout fails). So, wouldnít we be more parsimonious and hence efficient, if we identify and concentrate on the more basic price action elements - trending s/r (channel borders) and horizontal s/r?
3. Regarding the time frame. As you suggest, identifying these formation produces opportunities with excellent r/r ratios. In the example above, you plan to harvest about 10,000 pips within 5 years. About 170 pips a month are great given that you don't invest much time for collecting them. However, if you are ready for hard work, and if the same formations provide you good signals on a lower time frame, wouldn't it be more efficient to trade more short terms? After all, 170 pips are "just" a day and a half's average volatility of the cable...
But no, nobody is asking these very simple questions, we just have to take the author's words for it.
I challenge the author, show us the PROOF that your setups are making money! Come on, it should be easy, you "invented" those setups so it should be easy for you to demonstrate the effectiveness of your system.
Are you game Igor, or are you just going to avoid a very simple question again?
Come on, FXTerminator, Igrok has been completely explicit: "Before posting here your questions and comments, please understand that I do not provide any educational or trading advisory services and always express my personal opinion only." IMO, he doesn't owe anyone any proof. You can read this thread - and you can avoid it. Furthermore, IMHO and as it has been already suggested to you in your thread, any TA discussion is not, and is not meant to be, a trading system. You know what head and shoulders are, right? You made this knowledge into a profitable trading system, right? Why don't you accuse Murphy of not providing the proof that H&S work? I personally have a hard time believing that H&S are not an epiphenomenon of other, more important things. I expect this thread to convince me they are useful. Once I'm convinced and able to work with theem, it's up to me to build a system suitable for my personality that would use this knowledge. Or not.
I didn’t say that I’m going to make a single trade over this time. I just can sit on this position and forget about it till it comes to the target, meanwhile trading this or any other pair on any other time frame or try to build a pyramid on that base.
Looks like a very promising thread. Looking forward to beat the odds and to learning how to move the market.
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