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Broco 1 Oct 7, 2009 1:19pm | Post# 1

Macroeconomic Analysis
 
Shares in Asia are growing, due to the Gold reaching it's maximum, companies such as BHP and Newcrest are leading

October 7 – Since gold has been climbing up to its maximum, led by mining companies and banks, the Asian shares have been rising for 2 consecutive days now. Brokers have raised the value of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group.

In Sydney BHP Billiton Ltd., the largest mining company in the world have increased of 3.4 % and the gold mining company Newcrest Mining Ltd - of 6.5 %. The reference index of the country showed its biggest rise within six weeks, after the central bank have raised interest rates explaining that the reasons for low interest have been "depleted". In Tokyo after Nomura Inc. raised its target price on shares so Sumitomo Mitsui have profited by 6.7 percent.

Managers of Pengana Capital Ltd handling 1 billion assets in Melbourne believe: “Rise in Asian shares might be the proof that global economy is getting back its strength”. "Investors who are waiting for correction to buy stocks are getting disappointed.

In Tokyo Asia-Pacific MSCI index rose by 1.5 % to 117.36 at 1:59 pm, continuing yesterday's growth of 1.7 %. Over the past seven months the index rose by 63% confirming the the signs that the world economy is recovering.

S & P / ASX 200 Index of Australia rose by 2.4 %, this is the biggest increase since the 24th of August. The index yesterday rose by 0.4 %, after an unexpected increase in interest rates of the central bank of Australia. Due to the increase in value of Credit Suisse Group AG., the largest operator of lead, Crane Group Ltd. rose by 2.1 %.

Sal.Vi Sep 25, 2010 5:42am | Post# 2

Carry Trade.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about carry trade vs. global stocks market [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

The black curve is a global stocks index benchmark (FTSE-AllWorld), and the triple colored curve is a fund based on carry trade (in ema-format: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.).

Carry trade funds shows prices more distant to top respect to stocks-benchmark.
This behaviour is a sign of a new stress-period in equity markets (october) ???
The 2010 bullish price-action of FTSE has overlapping legs (corrective ???).


http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/3...salvi0040a.jpg
http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/3...salvi0040b.jpg

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Sep 25, 2010 1:04pm | Post# 3

SP500 Variance Indicators.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about S&P 500 Variance Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

The short-term variance in SP500 future have more bearish slope than long-term ones.
The continuation of this pattern can increase the financial stress in the stocks market in mid-term (autumn).
In the spread-curve wa can see a recent side-pattern similar to II/quart.09.
Spread-curve above this side-area can increase the financial stress in the stocks-market; spread-curve below this side-area can increase the probability of a new 2010 top in the stocks-market.
It is important to analyze the SP500 volatility indicators in order to have a more complete view of the current period.

It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/3...salvi0040c.jpg

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Sal.Vi Sep 25, 2010 1:26pm | Post# 4

CBOE S&P500 Volatility Indicator.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about CBOE S&P500 Volatility Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

These two curves (daily frame) are a spread between two volatility indicators of S&P (charts in ema-format: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.).

In the first (black chart) ema-format there is a time-spread between 1 month vs. 3 month vol.indicators.
The curve is in bullish-array in aug.-sept., in divergence behaviour with S&P500.
The 2010 lows and tops are in ascending-array; the 2010 top is very similar to 2009 top !!!
This pattern indicates a period of increase in financial-stress on S&P500 ???

http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/5...salvi0040d.jpg



In the second (white chart) ema-format there is a cap.-spread between SP100 vs. SP500 vol.indicators.
The curve is in hard bullish-array 2010, in divergence behaviour with S&P500 2010-tops.
Moreover there is a preliminary H&S (grey neck-area).
This pattern indicates a period of increase in financial-stress on S&P500 ???
Below the ascending black rectangle the S&P500 go to new 2010 top; above neck-area there will be a significant increase in S&P500 financial stress.

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/6...salvi0040e.jpg

It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Sep 25, 2010 4:05pm | Post# 5

ND/Tick Indicator.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Nasdaq Tick Indicator [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In this triple curve there are 3 Nasdaq-tick frames, with red-tick as short/mid-term indicator.
When red-tick is above blue & green curves, the indicator is in bullish-array for the underlying Nasdaq.
Grey-triangle marks the turn of main trend (bullish vs. bearish) of tick-indicator.
In 2010 there are not bullish turns and the lows have descending-array vs. Nasdaq lows with "V"-array.

Until now tick do not indicates in 2010 a bullish-turn.
The tick-behaviour of lows in 08/09 vs. 10 suggests new financial-stress for underlying Nasdaq ???

It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/6...salvi0040f.jpg



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Sal.Vi Sep 25, 2010 4:35pm | Post# 6

VEQ.-S&P
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Nasdaq Tick Indicator [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This Index provided by S&P is comprised of three components: Equity as SP500; Volatility as 1mo. VIX Future; Cash as Overnight LIBOR. VEQ.-Index allocates between equity and volatility based on the combination of realized and implied volatility trend decision variables (on a daily basis).

As showed on the chart this index anticipates the underlying SP500 (see 08/09-lows). VEQ.-S&P in 2010, from the apr.-top is in continuous descending-array (with low in aug.) vs. SP500 in "V"-array (low in july).

There will be a second and ascending low in VEQ.-S&P and a new descending low in SP500 (bullish divergence for underlying SP500 in mid-short term) ???
Or there will be a second and descending VEQ.-S&P top and a new ascending top in SP500 (bearish divergence for underlying SP500 in mid-long term) ???

Tuned on VEQ.-S&P !!!
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/5256/zzzsalvi0040g.jpg



I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Sep 26, 2010 9:09am | Post# 7

BDI
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Baltic Dry Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Baltic dry index fails to maintain bull-trend in 2010, with a both a lower top and a lower low vs. 2009.
Recovery structure, started in 2008, have legs too overlying (corrective-type of up-trend ???).
BDI in june.2010 cross below light-blue ascending binary-line, stopping the recovery up-trend.
BDI, in 09/10, is included in a descending-rectangle.
Double-RSI is in sell-array: main recent lows in descending-array; two-lines bearish and below 50-line; fast < slow.
Long term stockastic is in sell-array: main recent lows in descending-array; curve bearish and below 50-line.
Simp.mov.aver. 50/200/500 and prices in knotting at 2400/2900-area.

The sma-knotting failure to maintain BDI-prices, push index to desc.rectangle base (now below the 2010-low); this event will increase the stress-pressure on the financial markets (stocks in particular).
BDI-prices above sma-knotting, push index toward desc.rectangle top (and then toward dotted gray-area, above the 5k-level), with an increase of confidence in stocks/commodity assets.

Tuned on mercantile marine transports !!!
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/5...salvi0041a.jpg

http://img814.imageshack.us/img814/5...salvi0041b.jpg



I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Sep 26, 2010 2:14pm | Post# 8

H&P INDEX.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about H&P Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H&P Index during IV/quart.2009 - I/quart.2010 has completed a "U"-turn, in divergence with BDI (bullish during 2009).
Main 30y top of H&P is in divergence with BDI-2008 top.

The Hard bear maybe subdivided in 3 legs:
A - price area 2183 to 1000 about = 1180 pt (5 bear-legs)
B - price area 1000 to 1450 about = 450 pt (3 bull-legs)
C - price area 1450 to 317 about = 1133 pt (5 bear-legs ??? until now)

C price target:
-) A = C = 270, down of 47 pt from last low value (= 3.2% of 1450)
-) 90% loss top A = 220 pt.
Statistica error 5-1% is compatible with 317 low, with validation of A=C.

The recovery of H&P Index in 2010 has a value of 2.4X from low. A bull-recovery (317-started) 2X-4X is compatible with maintaining of structural bearish-array.

The first structural bear-stop was obtained when prices went above to descending line of main recent tops [ see previous chart ].
A second and important structural bear-stop there will be above 1000-area and 1250-area.
Turn in structural bullish-array above 1450-area.

Long-term MACD is in bullish turn and it is possible a swing very similar to 1999/2002.

A continuation of the H&P Index upward trend, will have major bullish-repercussions on the (non-energy) shipping-stocks (see note below the post).

Tuned on mercantile marine transports !!!
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex...750&height=750
L.T. MACD
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex...750&height=300

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥



note: The Harper & Petersen Charter Rate Index [Start data: 1986; data frame: weekly report] gives a representative picture of the market - the overall index is based on a data pool.
A total of 8 individual indices are provided for container ship categories from 750 to 5,200 teu [class n.1 < 1000 teu; class n.8 > 4000 teu]. For each class of vessel, all time charter parties with a defined minimum or maximum term are included in the index.
Unlike other indices, the H.&P. Index redetermines weightings each year on the basis of the size of the fleet and cost-covering rates. It thereby includes only the tonnage available in the charter market. That means it gives the larger classes more weighting, and shows the market realistically.
The Indicator was developed in cooperation with leading academics, economists and shipping experts, including Prof. Berthold Volk of the Faculty of Shipping of the University of Applied Science Oldenburg / Ostfriesland / Wilhelmshaven.
Contrary to the Baltic indices of shipping (which focus primarily on bulk shipments of commodities), the H.&P. looks at a variety of Atlantic charter rates (relative to the cost of running the ship). Baltic index is up sharply from its lows of 2008; H.&P. has not risen at all, until jan.2010 low.
Moreover the BDI typically measures bulk cargoes - ore, crude oil, coal, grain. H.&P. typically measures finished goods (ex: the containers of LCD screens from Taiwan, Scotch Whisky from the UK, motorcycles from Italy and so on). And on my reckoning, it's a good indicator of global consumer activity and value-added conversion activity - which for a consumer-driven and high value-added conversion economy such as ours is surely the critical indicator.

Sal.Vi Sep 26, 2010 5:50pm | Post# 9

Au - Gold vs. Platinum
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Au/Pt spread [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Graphical notes placed on the chart.

Au-tuned !!!
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://i51.tinypic.com/11tv144.jpg

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Sal.Vi Sep 28, 2010 8:32am | Post# 10

Breadth Indicators.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Breadth Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In this mega-chart (in ema-format: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.) there are:
Nyse Summation (not-R.A.) indicator;
Nyse spread (ratio-type) summation vs. volatility indicators.

-) On the first indicator we can see a bullish-beast as a giant H&S (head marked in white), with price-target do not completed, and with 2010 pull-back in progress on the descending neck.
-) Prices of indicator above descending binary line (marked in white and in set-up on zero-line) is bullish for the underlying NYSE; below this main level there will be an increase of financial stress in NYSE Index.
-) Ema-format is in bullish-array both in short-term and in mid-term; in long-term there is a big divergence between summation 09/10 (descending) top vs. US stocks market 09/10 (ascending) tops.

-) On the second indicator we can see the bullish-array multi-frames, with very high top in 2010 as previous turn-tops. Searching for divergence II top and bearish turn on stocks market ???

It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://i52.tinypic.com/a1myza.jpg

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Sal.Vi Oct 1, 2010 3:25am | Post# 11

US$-Index
 
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In this double personal chart there are two evaluation curves about US$-Index.
These curves were obtained with two different algorithms from the currency crosses of US$ vs. €, £, SwF, ¥.
Curve structures are in daily-close and contrarian to US$-index.


We can make the main remarks as follows:
-) these curves are in bullysh-array from 2002;
-) the US$-Index lows are tuned with two-indicators tops 08/10;
-) the green descending lines intercept the next low on US$-Index.

Prices above the green lines maybe corresponds to a loss of 22-30% in US$-Index.
Many attention should be given to this US$-stage, as it is structuring the fifth leg of the 2008/2010 phase (perhaps the final ??? ).
COT-chart suggests US$ weakness.

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/6...salvi0042a.jpg
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=098662&p=w1

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 1, 2010 6:51am | Post# 12

US$-Index
 
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In this second double personal chart there are two evaluation curves about US$-Index.
These curves were obtained with two different algorithms from the future US$ vs. Au and W.T.L. Crude Oil futures.
Curve structures are in weekly-close and contrarian to US$-index.
In yellow there is another Au&WTL-CO (not contrarian) US$-Index evaluation curve .


We can make the main remarks as follows:
-) the curve of yellow-chart is in momentum-losing phase during 2008/2010;
-) the green-curve is in momentum-losing phase during 2009/2010;
-) the blue-curve is in momentum-losing phase during 2008/2010;
-) the green-curve has two main tops (08/10) widely spaced (not as US$-Index lows 08/10);
-) the green-curve has two main lows (06/08) in descending-array (as US$-Index tops 06/08: divergence !).

The main trend of these evaluation-curves has a strong bearish-array for US$-Index; but there are some signs of a weakening trend in 2006-8/2010.

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/4...salvi0042b.jpg
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=098662&p=w1

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 2, 2010 5:32am | Post# 13

Shipping Indexes.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Shipping Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In this short comment there are two benchmarks of Shipping Indexes: D.J.US Mar.Tr.Ind. & Phil.Shipp.Ind. (Charts in ema-format: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.).

On the first index we can see a bearish H&S in action and do not completed (pink-area).
This structure, if validated downward, maybe an important component in the financial-stress increase (index sensitive to international sea trade).
Prices above 212/215-levels have de-stressed impact on financial markets (international sea trade in bullish status).

On the second index we can see a long side-array (IV/08 started) in great divergence vs. S&P1500 or Wilshire-5k. Prices below 205-level and below to ascending-line (now at 190-level) can increase financial stress.

Tuned on the shipping-debacle.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/4...salvi0042c.jpg
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/5...salvi0042d.jpg


The benchmarks Topix Shipping Index and DeltaGlobal Shipping Index (1-yearly frame: daily-close) did not look a bullish-array.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=pnghttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 2, 2010 12:42pm | Post# 14

Au - Gold vs. Copper
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Au / Cu spread [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This indicator curve is the Au vs. Cu spread (ratio-type; weekly-close in the big picture, ema-format in the small picture, with prices replaced by exp.mov.aver. 5/10/20).

A decrease of both metals can still to determine uptrend or down-trend of indicator, since the change of two commodities may have speeds (or slopes) very different.
A decline of indicator curve indicates a loss of power in the first metal vs. second one, a rise of indicator curve indicates an increase in strength of the first commodity vs. second one.
It is more useful to look and analyze the general trend of the curve and not pay attention on the price scale.
This indicator is contrarian to stocks market (benchmarks as: FTSE-AllWorld; MSCI-AllCountry; S&P1500; Wilshire-5k).

The spread has a bullish trend in long term as we can see by blue-ascending lines.

Stocks market sell-off 2007/2009 was preceded by a divergence between lows spread 06/07 (ascending) and stocks market tops 06/07 (ascending).

Spread below ascending blue-line (or inside the descending red-rectangle) will have a strong bullish influence on the stocks market.
Spread above top spotted gray-area will increase strongly the financial stress in the stocks market (second abyssal hole array ???).

In the small-picture there is the 2y spread with 3 oscillators in mid-log term frames.
We can see an ascending-array of 3 oscillators vs. main lows of spread. The descending pattern of spread shows a momentum-loss ???

Tuned on the metals-battle.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://i54.tinypic.com/33li72u.jpg

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 3, 2010 5:51am | Post# 15

CFNAI Watch-Area.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about CFNAI Watch-Area [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

http://dshort.com/charts/indicators/...-Fed-CFNAI.gif
http://dshort.com/charts/indicators/...-indicator.gif
http://dshort.com/charts/indicators/...AI-and-GDP.gif
http://dshort.com/charts/indicators/...volatility.gif

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Sal.Vi Oct 3, 2010 12:32pm | Post# 16

US$-Index
 
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Graphical contest in US$-Index: bullish H&S vs. bearish 2-tops.

Now price-action is in full-test of the right shoulder target; valid loss of this level (>5%) delete H&S.

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2day4hf.jpg

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 3, 2010 4:22pm | Post# 17

US$-Index
 
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some personal hedgeing-indicators (= H.I.) about US$ (spread in ratio-type).
First chart is a comparative (qualitative) indicator of sell vs. buy pressure on US$ by using ETF-2X in ema-format (prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.), with (green curve) the daily-close of US$-Index price.
Second chart is a double comparative (qualitative) indicator of sell pressure (in ema-format) and buy pressure (in daily-close: green-line) of US$ vs €.
A decrease of both spread-components can still to determine uptrend or down-trend of indicator, since the change of two spread-components may have speeds (or slopes) very different.
A decline of indicator curve indicates a loss of power in the first spread-components vs. second one, a rise of indicator curve indicates an increase in strength of the first spread-components vs. second one.
It is more useful to look and analyze the general trend of the indicator-curve and not pay attention on the prices scale.

The following remarks can be made:

In the first chart we can see a beautiful bullish H&S on triple-ema (corresponding to bearish H&S on US$) with curve above neck (horizzontal white-area).
H&S-target at nov.2009 level of H.I., corresponding on US$ low.
This H.I. indicates US$ target at 72/74-level ??? See also previous post.

In the second chart we can see a beautiful bullish C&H on triple-ema (bearish pressure US$ vs €) with curve above neck (descending white-line).
C&H-target at dec.2009 level of H.I.; this H.I. indicates €/$ target at december.2009-level (1.44/1.46) ???

Below there is the US$-Index (green)curve with two competing H&S as indicates in white (see also previous post for the major-H&S).

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://i51.tinypic.com/2w3x01v.jpg

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 5, 2010 5:14am | Post# 18

Ph-Fed ADS Indicator
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Ph-Fed ADS Indicator [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

The annotations on the chart of this indicator are as follows (S&P500 as stocks-market benchmark):

Ph-Fed ADS is in l.t. bearish-array from '70 (see descending yellow rectangle); indication of weak economy ???

Ph-Fed ADS during 2008 has broken all previous main lows except '74 !!! indication of very hard bearish ???

Now Ph-Fed ADS has a short-mid term bearish-array, below 0-line; indication of weak recovery ???

Ph-Fed ADS, after the minimum in 2008-2009, has not done a violent overcoming of the 0-line as in the past (see blue-green diamonds); indication of weak recovery ???

Above the descending top of yellow-rectangle there will be a real bullish economy.
Inside the rectangle there will be only a recovery.
Below the '90-lows there will be a new hard crisis.

Tuned on US-Fed data.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/5...salvi0042e.jpg
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...623&mocktick=1

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 12, 2010 5:18am | Post# 19

OCSE Leading Indicator.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about OCSE Leading Indicator [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some OCSE Leading Indicators in bearish turn (economic weakening in progress ???)

The following (previous) graphics elements are interesting:
-) 2001/2002 imperfect double-dip;
-) two indicator curves vs. 100-level vs. equity-benchmark;
-) blue vs. red curve crossess;
-) 2007/2008 mid poind between blue & red curves vs. S&P500 top !!!

Tuned on OCSE data.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://i52.tinypic.com/15x4gnq.jpg
http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/in...rand=384090602

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Oct 21, 2010 8:00am | Post# 20

US$-Index
 
2 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

These charts are two P&F with two format-box (see red-square).

The first format shows an hard bearish-array of US$ and a reversal-level at 82.3-box, in set-up with two main descending 45°-lines.
Possible mini sell-off if prices go below 74 level (very important level also in my previous big-chart, linked below).
This first format shows a target of 61 $.

On the second format (bearish-array confirmed) we can see two main level: 77 and 74 boxes. Reverse signal above 79.5/80.0 box.
Price-target more conservative (69: as an imperfect historical double-lows).

Comparing with my previous big-chart we can se 81.5/78.5 as area of great structural importance.
Level 74 sell-off starter ???.
Alternative structures are possible, of course.

Tuned on Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

previous big chart in candles-format

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
Click to Enlarge

Name: SAL.VIjpg0.jpg
Size: 434 KB
Click to Enlarge

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Sal.Vi Oct 21, 2010 8:59am | Post# 21

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This chart is ema-format 3y of US$. The following notes maybe reported:
the graphical contest bullish H&S vs. descending double-tops (neck-area now at 87.0/87.5) was broken in favor of the bearish double-tops at 81-level about (gray-markers). If this structure will be seen from the market then the target could be head price-area from dec.09-low, 61.5, in according to previous P&F.

An important graphical pit-stop there will be at 74-level, parallel to neck-line, but also to 3y-ascending line at 76.5/77.0 level; below this cone a sell-off is probable.

Tuned on Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

previous big chart in candles-format

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
Click to Enlarge

Name: SAL.VIjpg2.jpg
Size: 453 KB

Sal.Vi Oct 22, 2010 9:03am | Post# 22

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some main Forex volatility indicators shows tops when US$ has important spike-prices (see also other markets).
Now volatility of €/US$ and US$/¥ have bullish-array from III/quart.2010, but valuation is not compatible with stress increase in financial markets.

Tuned on Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

previous big chart in candles-format

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
Click to Enlarge

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Sal.Vi Oct 22, 2010 9:27am | Post# 23

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some personal hedg.-ind. about US$.
Triple-curve of chart is a comparative (qualitative) indicator of sell pressure on US$ vs. €, by using ETF-2X in ema-format (prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.).
Second chart is a comparative (qualitative) indicator of buy pressure (in daily-close: green-line) of US$ vs €.
A decrease of both spread-components can still to determine uptrend or down-trend of indicator, since the change of two spread-components may have speeds (or slopes) very different.
A decline of indicator curve indicates a loss of power in the first spread-components vs. second one, a rise of indicator curve indicates an increase in strength of the first spread-components vs. second one.
It is more useful to look and analyze the general trend of the indicator-curve and not pay attention on the prices scale.
Below double-indicator there is the daily-close of US$-Index price (in green) as reference.

Sell-pressure (ema-format) curve is very far from 2009 tops and exceeded the minimum (2009) downward. This is in divergence with US$-Index.
Also green-line buy-pressure curve shows this divergence.

€ shows a loss of strength against the US$ from 2008 to 2010.

Tuned on Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

previous big chart in candles-format

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Sal.Vi Oct 22, 2010 11:22am | Post# 24

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some personal hedg.-ind. about US$.
Triple-curve of chart is a comparative (qualitative) indicator of sell pressure on US$ vs. ¥, by using ETF-2X in ema-format (prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.).
Second chart is a comparative (qualitative) indicator of buy pressure (in daily-close: green-line) of US$ vs ¥.
A decrease of both spread-components can still to determine uptrend or down-trend of indicator, since the change of two spread-components may have speeds (or slopes) very different.
A decline of indicator curve indicates a loss of power in the first spread-components vs. second one, a rise of indicator curve indicates an increase in strength of the first spread-components vs. second one.
It is more useful to look and analyze the general trend of the indicator-curve and not pay attention on the prices scale.
Below double-indicator there is the daily-close of US$-Index price (in green) as reference.

Sell-pressure (ema-format) curve and buy-pressure (green-curve) have a very strong trends, with US$ very weak vs ¥.
Among the major currencies of the US$-Index, the ¥ shows considerable strength.

Tuned on Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

previous big chart in candles-format

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Sal.Vi Oct 23, 2010 9:11am | Post# 25

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This personal indicator is an evaluator curve of US$-Index, obtained with an algorithm from the currency crosses of US$ vs. €, £, SwF, ¥.
Indicator is in daily-close and contrarian to US$-index.


We can make the main remarks as follows:
-) this curves is in hard bullish-array from 2002;
-) the US$-Index lows are tuned with indicator tops 2008/2010;
-) the green descending lines intercept now the US$-Index, after a long side behaviour or price-action (2008/2010):
-) US$-evaluator have a five-legs price-action 2008/2010, and this n.5 leg maybe the final one toward to indicator-top (= US$-low).

Prices of indicator above the green lines (descending double-top) maybe corresponds to a loss of 27% in US$-Index: 60-area !!??!!
Many attention should be given to possible false break.

COT-spread in bearish-knotting for US$.

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=098662&p=w1

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Sal.Vi Oct 24, 2010 7:12am | Post# 26

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This second double personal indicator/evaluator of US$-Index compare the US$ currency vs. Au and W.T.L. Crude Oil (as futures), with two different algorithms.
Curve structures are in monthly-close and contrarian to US$-index.

The first blue-curve shows a sky-rocket price-action in divergence with recent ascending lows of US$ (see circles).
The trend of evaluator-curve shows hard bearish-array for the US$ and high probability of new lows in the currency.
Also evaluator lows are (2006/2010) widely (ascending) spaced, not as US$-Index tops 2006/2010.
The blue-curve shows a momentum-losing phase during 2008/2010 but do not shows bearish-turn.

The second green-curve shows an historical sky-rocket of the price-action 2002/2008; the following tops have descending-array according to US$-Index, and with impressive lows on 2009 (see US$ 2008/2009 double-tops !).
The trend of evaluator-curve shows hard bearish-array for the US$ and high probability of new lows in the currency, but in possible divergence with a new top of evaluator curve.
The green-curve shows a momentum-losing phase during 2008/2010 and shows a possible terminal top in 2008.

COT-spread in bearish-knotting for US$.

US$-Index is looking for the final lows?
Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=098662&p=w1

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Sal.Vi Oct 24, 2010 7:34am | Post# 27

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This III indicator/evaluator of US$-Index compare the US$ currency vs. Au and W.T.L. Crude Oil (as futures), obtained from a tol on web.
Curve structure is in weekly-close and not contrarian to US$-index.

First mega bearish-leg (in blue-square) has same price-value of actual mega bearish-leg (second blue-square). Is this a sign of final US$ low ???

In the withe-area the evaluator-curve shows a momentum-losing phase during bearish-evolution of US$.

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=098662&p=w1

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Sal.Vi Oct 24, 2010 5:05pm | Post# 28

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.



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Sal.Vi Oct 25, 2010 6:26pm | Post# 29

US$-Index
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US$-Index [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some long-term graphical annotation (not useful for trading).

Long term graphical contest between bearish-H&S (shoulders in pink) vs. bullish multi-lows (tests: 1978, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 2004, 2005), with neck 78.5/81.5 about.
Head = 40 $ (+/-1) price-area; final graphical target as 41 $ (+/- 1); percentage-target as loss of 33% from neck, 54 $ (+/- 1).

Key graphical elements are as follows:
-) descending line between two main tops (in red), now at target 95$-level;
-) triangle between big-red descending-line and big-blue ascending-line; bear-cross of triangle in 2004 and confirmed in 2006 (violet-area) with a final graphical target of 61 $ (+/- 1);
-) percentage loss 1985-1992 = 52.7% about (165 vs. 78); percentage loss 2001-2008 = 41.3% about (121 vs. 71); if %-loss will be the same the target will be 57 $ (+/- 1), according to %-target of H&S and triangle;
-) recent double-tops on gray-level (2004/2005) with price-target 68 $ (+/- 1); double-tops in progress 2008/2010, at 89.5-level, in validation only below 74-level with a final price-target of 58.5 $ (see above);
-) there is a strong similarity between the swing 1985/1992 (see brown-markers) and the swing 2001/2008.

$-Index is in hard bearish-status; only above the big red-descending there will be the bear-rupture.
The bearish-beast is the H&S (in contest with multi-lows).
The main key-levels of structural importance are 81.5/78.5 (contest-neck), 74-level, 69/68 (see also previous posts), 61/57-54, 41.

Price in the 69/61-area can cause a false/fractional break of 2008-lows, on a historical basis, with a massive bull-trap (on a historical basis) for some markets (equity ?) in the next year.
A bearish-break of 69/61-area could cause a systemic collapse of the US$, with unpredictable implications for global financial markets.

Tuned on the Forex-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

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Sal.Vi Oct 26, 2010 6:50am | Post# 30

GDP.
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about US GDP [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In this triple-chart there are the following curves:
a) red-curve is US-GDP;
b) green-curve is private inventory changes;
c) black-curve is the spread of previous a & b.

The spread shows descending main tops (blue-line) and this is not positive for macro-economy in US long term view.
The spread is in bearish-array according to ascending-lines (orange); in fact, the orange-line with a greater slope has been broken, while the orange-line with lower slope is in full descending test.
During 2010 the spread shows hard bearish action.

Below the orange-cone there will be a re-start of bear for macro-economic data ??? Attention to the 0-line !

Tuned on the macro-economic data evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

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Sal.Vi Oct 30, 2010 9:23am | Post# 31

PGM & Precious Financial Observatory Lab.
 
2 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about Precious Metals [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

On some Precious-indexes charts there is a "Gold-God-Cup" in progress, a giant and long-term graphical contest.

Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution, the future center of an epochal rupture between supply vs. demand ???
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

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Sal.Vi Oct 30, 2010 9:30am | Post# 32

PGM & Precious Financial Observatory Lab.
 
2 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about Precious Metals [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

On some Precious-indexes charts there is a "Gold-God-Cup" in progress, a giant and long-term graphical contest.

Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution, the future center of an epochal rupture between supply vs. demand ???
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...595&mocktick=1
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Sal.Vi Oct 30, 2010 11:32am | Post# 33

PGM & Precious Financial Observatory Lab.
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about Precious Metals [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

On some Precious-indexes charts there is a "Gold-God-Cup" in progress, a giant and long-term graphical contest.


Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution, the future center of an epochal rupture between supply vs. demand ???
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
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Sal.Vi Nov 8, 2010 8:56am | Post# 34

Volatility Indicators.
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about Volatility Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

The spread between Volatility Indicator of S&P100 vs. S&P500 has a behaviour about contrarian to stocks-market.
For this reason the spread can be used in order to measure the stress levels within stocks-market.

The chart shows two simple method of spread.
The main structure of spread have a bearish-array for underlying stocks-market in long term because of ascending patters of main tops.
In short term (see 2009/2010 colored structures) there are ascending patterns of lows and dangerous structures (not completed) H&S-like.

Tuned on the volatility indicators evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.


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Sal.Vi Nov 9, 2010 5:21am | Post# 35

Commodity.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about nrg-COMMODITY [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Giant spread of larges vs. commercials (trenders vs. hedgers) ... an important bullish-array for the main nrg-commodity ???
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=067651&p=w1

Also H.-Oil in bullish-array with large spread in same array as CL !!!
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=022651&p=w1

Nat.Gas. with a significant decrease of very-bearish spread (inverse vs. CL).
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=023651&p=w1


Tuned on the nrg-commodity, for a possible second rupture in the CL-price supply vs. demand. Inflationary wave coming ???
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.


I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Nov 9, 2010 7:07am | Post# 36

Metal-commodity
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Metal-COMMODITY [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Giant spread of larges vs. commercials (trenders vs. hedgers) also for Cu-commodity ... an important bullish-array for the main industrial-metal ???
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=067651&p=w1

Some Cu-ETF
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...589&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...145&mocktick=1http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...814&mocktick=1


Tuned on the main industrial-metals, for possible problems supply vs. demand. Inflationary wave coming ???
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.


I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Nov 9, 2010 10:30am | Post# 37

PGM & Precious Financial Observatory Lab.
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Metal-COMMODITY [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Giant spread of larges vs. commercials (trenders vs. hedgers) also for some precious-commodity ... an important bullish-array for the main PGM & Precious metals ???
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=088691&p=w1
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=084691&p=w1
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=076651&p=w1
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=075651&p=w1

Watch also to (frame: 5y) Ir, with strong bullish-array, and to Rh Ru in retard vs. other precious !!!

Tuned on the main PGM & precious metals, for possible rupture on supply vs. demand. Inflationary wave coming ???
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.


I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Nov 10, 2010 8:50am | Post# 38

Metal-commodity
 
HI ALL. Some notes about Metal-COMMODITY [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Strong bullish-array for All metal-commodity ETF
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...428&mocktick=1

Strong bullish-array for Industrial metal-commodity ETF
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...220&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...193&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...194&mocktick=1



Tuned on the main PGM/precious and industrial metals, for possible inflationary wave coming ???
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.


I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

Sal.Vi Nov 11, 2010 8:03am | Post# 39

Au - Gold vs. Silver
 
2 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about Precious spreads [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first chart it can see the 15y spread Au vs. Ag, about contrarian to global stocks-market.
The price-evolution of spread is contained in an ascending rectangle, with key lows and tops in ascending array and in divergence with (ascending-array) stocks-market (see main 15y-top of spread vs. main 15-low of global stocks-market).
From III 2010-quarter the spread has a sell-off array on a main graphical knot or set-up among some important long-term and mid-term lines.
A valid bearish break of this set-up, could cause a stock market sky-rocket. Target of spread = loss of 46% from rupture-level of ascending-rectangle.
A not-valid bearish-break or a not-break, could cause an important stop in the bullish-status (on mid-term timeXprice) of stocks-market.

In the II chart there is the daily ema-format (prices replaced by daily exp.mov.aver.5/10/20) of spread (level and target as daily ema-5), and chart III is the P&F (see format on chart).
Some annotation are the following:
-) First bearish leg (2008/2009) has 23 spread-points; if the 2010-leg will be of 23 pt, 47-area is the final target (see also P&F yellow bands); as %loss the target will be 50-level. It can be possible also a 1.618/1.500 target-zone between spread bearish-legs, at 33/36-area.
-) A descending double tops 2009/2010 has 12 of spread-points; berish-break of figure low has happens in october.2010 and the target is 47 about !
-) PPO call for a continuation-bear on spread (now at 3y lows)
-) On P&F the equal-legs target is 46-box.

The area 46/50 have high probability of an important low on the spread.
Now the spread is in bearish-array on all frames and PPO (and not completed figures) call for a continuation-bear.
Structural bullish turn on spread there will be only above red-descending lines on P&F.


Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
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Sal.Vi Nov 12, 2010 9:19am | Post# 40

Au - Gold vs. Silver
 
1 Attachment(s)
HI ALL. Some notes about Precious spreads [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the chart there is the large view of the previous post about the spread Au vs. Ag (about contrarian to global stocks-market), with underlying Gold nearby price.
Some annotations are as follows.
-) The spread, in long term view, is inside a giant descending rectangle (black); in 2008 spread touch upper limit of rectagle and now is at 50% of the area.
-) A long-term ascending (red) line has been broken in 2006 (see price-action of stocks-market in 2006/2007), recovered in 2008 (spread above), and has been re-broken in 2010.
-) The first bearish leg, started in 1991, have 53 spread pt = loss of 53.5%; if the actual bearish-leg (start: 2008) have same extension, the target will be 28 about (from spread-pt. calculations) or 38 about (from % calculations). Spread below 46-area will validate this pattern.
-) A second giant structure is the graphical contest between multiple tops vs. multiple lows (in gray) 79/81 vs. 48/46 (price-area: 34 spread-pt or loss of 42.5%) with a bearish target (if spread go below 46-level) of 12 spread-pt or 26.5 (from % calculations).

The spread is in bearish-array on all frames and is in an important zone of main lines.
Structural bullish turn on spread (bearish impact on stocks-market) there will be only above red-ascending line (now at 60 pt).
New bearish energy for spread (positive impact for stocks-market), below 46 area (a real structural pivot of Au/Ag), with targets as above.


Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
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