Long term EURUSD, am I missing something?
Every where I look I see analysis that say the long term EURUSD is going to hit a resistance at around 1.4860 and then turn down. It is indeed testing this level now but I just don't see it turn down.
1) This resistance level is minor compared to longer levels, such as 1.4535, which the EUR broke through and looks to be well on it's way to staying above.
2) The USD is not going to become strong enough anytime soon to push the EUR back down.
From what I see, the EURUSD is going to continue in it's uptrend and test the 1.5200 level and may even go as high as 1.5400.
What's everyone else think?
BTW, I am long, bought at 1.4682 with an target of 1.5200. It has gone up over 100 pips so I moved my stop and am in a free trade now
I would like to believe that too.
This consolidation that's going on right now is kind of freaking me out.
Check out this dollar index chart. Seems to confirm the dollar is in a strong down trend. Set it to 1 year, add Stoch and BB. You can see that it is in the lower BB channel and Stoch is showing it dropping back down.
Another thing to keep in mind is that having opinions as to where a pair is going in the mid to long term range is fine, just don't get married to them.
When people put a lot of time and effort into formulating their opinions, they find it harder to let go of them.
Yesterday the Fed pledged to keep interest rates in the US low and as a result we should see investors continue to use the dollar as a funding currency for riskier currencies and other assets. It also stated that there are signs that the US economy is improving, providing further cause for investors to pursue riskier assets. Although the dollar pulled back by the end of trading yesterday, it did hit a new high of $1.4845. Iím still long the dollar and I see it going to $1.50. The ECB is starting to get concerned about the strength of the euro, but it hasnít intervened in the past at these levels.
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