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AminAS May 12, 2009 2:41am | Post# 2881

EUR/GBP - Bond Star
 
I am trading the bond shooting star EUR/GBP. It formed right up on .9000. It's with the daily trend, though the weekly and monthly seem confused. I guess with strict management and a quick move to BE, this could work out for some pips.

Lotuselanman May 12, 2009 3:32am | Post# 2882

Thanks for the response Strat.
 
Christopher,

No, No, No, No, No and just in case you don't understand, NO!

First off, from where you've been, you should not be trading again, yet. Secondly, you are trying to do a 100 yard sprint before you have even learned to crawl!

""If support is broken take trade ""

[color=black]What you propose is an advanced strategy that has a HIGH RISK.

Don't even think about trading yet, until you are confident in recognising PASR set ups in your dreams!

Then when you can do that, I only want you to identify those...

This is called a RE - TEST of PREVIOUS S&R. I have explained it a couple of times AND only yesterday, in my post, "TL and a couple of trades", DEMONSTRATED HOW TO DO IT!

You should NOT be attempting trading until you have got ALL PASR etched in your trading brain. You are going to be like a loose cannon. You MUST slow down, READ, ABSORB the material and UNDERSTAND before applying

Sorry for being hard on you, Christopher but it's far better than losing your account!


Okay Strat. My post was just an exercise, not a definite trading plan. I am NOT trading, but trying to help myself focus on the crucial elements by acting AS IF i was trading. So it was an experiment in chart reading - obviously a poor one, but nevertheless only an experiment.

I had just read Patrick25's, Blackeagle's and your own comments on that chart and decided to put my own together following the processes through, drawing TLs, noting areas of S, or R and of SR. The only way I could get feedback on my effort was by posting it.

My familiarity with the lingo is not yet AUTOMATIC but I will get it. I tend to spell it out – as I did in the ‘retrace of previous S&R’ example – to help my understanding and help the lingo to become automatic. This will come with time I hope.

To reiterate, I am NOT trading for real or even in demo, but pretending to do so for the purposes of analysis and posting.

Be as hard on me as you like Strat, but I am genuinely trying to make PASR as automatic as I can – stage by stage.

All the best!

PistolDave May 12, 2009 3:40am | Post# 2883

Whipsaw song
 
To help you stay stress-free you can take a listen to "The Whipsaw Song" by legendary trader Ed Seykota. (Good lesson and maybe a laugh too.)

Here's the Youtube link:
Inserted Video

green May 12, 2009 6:19am | Post# 2884

Aud/Jpy
 
I am trading the engulfing bar Aud/jpy day / 74.90.
Seems to be stalling at Boss 50.

One14 May 12, 2009 7:41am | Post# 2885

Woo! First Pick.
 
Corbett, this is brilliant and would have got you 2 Strat Picks except for your MM screw up so only 1 this time. Congratulations. This is exactly how to trade a swing. Very nice trade journal and with very good trade observations and monitoring. Apart from the MM side, I honestly couldn't have done any better.

Now, just because you've done this once, don't think you can walk on water. Remember everything you did on this and repeat a thousand times over.

This is the example for everyone to follow and to know that if you do as taught, it not...
Thanks Strat.

No water walking here.

I am referring to my journal and this thread to lather, rinse, and repeat (and to keep the ego in check).

elitejets May 12, 2009 7:50am | Post# 2886

It keeps going up til it stops
 
The trends of last Friday are back ...
US Dollar is weak and commodities very strong.
Cable just showed us that it keeps going up until it stops (in the words of Dr Joe) and put in new highs and the trendline holds.

It ain't over til its over (I wonder if Strat likes Lenny)

One14 May 12, 2009 7:59am | Post# 2887

Working on it.
 
Perfect setup, perfect entry, perfect SL, all deserve

Trade management and Exits

If you are using preset targets, 131 area was a better one for first exit. 50 is too close, IMO, and what would happen if price retraced a little bit to take your remaining lots at BE? You should consider to leave enough room for trades to develop.

Re. exits, there are mainly two types of exits, preset targets or PA without preset targets. Since you are trading daily tf, have you ever considered to evaluate the chart after daily close...
Thanks Black.

I kept hearing a little voice in my head (I think it was Baba G). "Eliminate risk, get to break even." Over the long haul, I expect the strategy I took would get stopped out @ BE more often than not.

I did consider following PA and watching after the daily close, but on this trade did not do that (I wanted this to be totally automatic and keep any emotions out of it - previous live experience). That also was made more clear after reading your post a few days ago (EUR/AUD...nice). Thanks for the advice and as I grow I will be implementing that in future trades.

One14 May 12, 2009 8:07am | Post# 2888

20 and 50
 
Great trade One14, I have a question about this setup..
You entered right below the boss as well as the 50 and 20 MA's, if I was looking at this setup I would be very hesitant to enter right into them - not criticizing your trade - just asking Strat, how cautious should we be when trading into MA's
Thanks Naws.

It was a concern I had, and I don't know if I was rationalizing, but I was thinking elastic band theory. Price had gotten far away from the 20 and eventually it would come back to it. I didn't base the trade on this though. The confluence of other events is why I took it. I gave it a plus and a minus in my probabilities pros and cons.

FxPippy May 12, 2009 8:16am | Post# 2889

back from 2 days away
 
Guys and gals, you've been busy, I'll have to catch up. Just got back after meeting up country..will read furiously while eating my lunch!

strat May 12, 2009 9:29am | Post# 2890

Great trade One14, I have a question about this setup..
You entered right below the boss as well as the 50 and 20 MA's, if I was looking at this setup I would be very hesitant to enter right into them - not criticizing your trade - just asking Strat, how cautious should we be when trading into MA's
Naws, your concerns are VERY valid and for those on their very first step on the path, should stay out until more experienced. The long trades where the 20 is supporting prices (prices above 20) are the safest and lowest risk and usually more profitable.

In this case, what I hope One14 saw was an established uptrend retracing to 61.8% (my data) with good PASR (no hammer on my data so didn't take!). Price usually dips below the 20 on full retraces (not just profit taking) AND, providing everything else lines up (confluence) we ASSUME the trend will continue, which it did.

Think of the 20 as your equilibrium or balance line at which prices revolve around. When they are too far away from the 20, they get "pulled back" which is called "The Elastic Band" effect. Even more so, when they go "the wrong side" of a strong, established trend.

When prices are haulin' ass above the 20 and refuse to come back to test it, this is also providing us with very valuable information - yes?

Does this explain it? If not ask again BUT if you are not comfortable in trading against the 20 that is GOOD - CAPITAL PRESERVATION IS # 1 PRIORITY. You thought more about LOSING than winning - that is even better.

Don't feel bad that you missed this and others are being rewarded for it. It is all about where YOU are in YOUR trading life and how comfortable YOU are with YOUR analysis and trade selection.

Now don't get cocky and think you can do this everytime and trade AGAINST the 20 - we only trade against the 20 for two reasons:

1) To get established in a new trend - HIGH RISK

2) To get back in an established trend - LOWER RISK, but still risky

Trading in the direction of the 20 is the LOWEST RISK

Does this answer it?

strat May 12, 2009 9:38am | Post# 2891

I am trading the bond shooting star EUR/GBP. It formed right up on .9000. It's with the daily trend, though the weekly and monthly seem confused. I guess with strict management and a quick move to BE, this could work out for some pips.
Almost took it myself and even alerted Baba G and Swami to it in our chat - I chickened out because of the BOSS.

Get out at the FIRST reverse PA to be safe.

strat May 12, 2009 9:40am | Post# 2892




Okay Strat....
OK, but get PASR down pat first, then when you know what you are doing, start with hammers and shooting star opportunities, ignore others.

Post as many PASRs for comment as you wish to get you up and running

strat May 12, 2009 9:44am | Post# 2893

I am trading the engulfing bar Aud/jpy day / 74.90.
Seems to be stalling at Boss 50.
NO! This is counter trend trading to a strong established trend!

Psycho Support is just below at 73.00!!!!!!!!! Open your eyes BEFORE pulling the trigger

TRADE WITH THE TREND

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND

fountaintree May 12, 2009 10:02am | Post# 2894

Hi Strat,

Thanks for the reply previously.

Was going through the thread again. Anyway, I am reading post #228 by you with reference to Bloom about the difference between SR as taught by J16 and you.

I am thinking of the difference.

I am sure we agree S&R is a zone thus as you mention the ".xxxish". Secondly, we can find out what is the major SR from weekly chart + reviewing the number of time prices have bounced off at the SR. (Which is in agreement with J16).

Thus, is the differences with reference to the SL. Eg, J16 use SR + other PA as confluence to enter trade, however SL is based on the price patterns. However, in this thread, SL is to be based on SR (not at SR per se rather use it to be away from it to avoid noise).

As an update, currently I am reviewing post by post again, especially the weekly + daily comment by Strat, Admin and even BabyG (this one is slightly harder...feel like studying literature...). The most gratifying part in this review is to see the growth of the participants from post to post. It also occur to me at many time, the conclusion can be wrong on hindsight. This reinfoce the fact that we cannot really expect market to go our way...it can go any way.

Back to my studies...

Cheers!

Grimweasel May 12, 2009 11:10am | Post# 2895

Strat,
I had a long think about my past 2 errors on the drive into to work this morning and I must apologise for them. Having re-read my post on the errant indicator it does come across as smart-arse. This was not my intention; often I don't articulate myself in my written work as well as orally!

I have a friend who works in London for one of the US large banks and he said (he's in risk management) that a couple of the traders on the floor used the said indicator. I also read about them in that book I was reading over the weekend and the author (Farley) said they were a very useful tool in identifying momentum and extremes.

However, this goes against the spirit of what is being taught here. As MAs were an 'allowed' indicator I was unsure if you'd used them etc and if you had ever found them useful.

Once again, apologies. In would like to rescind my 1 Pick Trader badge as punishment for my errors; when you consider me worthy again I will reinstate. I will also be banning myself from posting on your thread for 2 weeks while I reflect on my actions and take time away from the markets also (after this post of course).

The positives to gleen from this are that it highlights I have a lot to learn still and I look forward to the continued learning on this thread. It has also highlighted a flaw PASR recognition and that I need to go back to the drawing board and develop patience. There are no short cuts in this business (just deleted game, as its far from that). Only hard learning and extreme patience; and admitting a flaw in public is akin to going to AA guess - knowing you have a problem but exposing it warts and all!

Speak in 2 weeks!

elitejets May 12, 2009 11:23am | Post# 2896

Strat,
I had a long think about my past 2 errors on the drive into to work this morning and I must apologise for them. Having re-read my post on the errant indicator it does come across as smart-arse. This was not my intention; often I don't articulate myself in my written work as well as orally!


Speak in 2 weeks!
Grimweasel ... Get over it. I have screwed up royally before and I have had a good telling off for it. Just take them off and keep at it.
If you only knew how many indicators I had when I started with Strat, there were like 4 windows under my price chart. I'm just thankful he did not have a thread then or I would have been the plat du jour.
Tomorrow is another day and we all appreciate your analysis and your willingness to put yourself out there so I better see you back again in under two weeks OK.

AstonDan May 12, 2009 11:25am | Post# 2897

Grimweasel ... Get over it. I have screwed up royally before and I have had a good telling off for it.
Likewise

Stick around Grim

fountaintree May 12, 2009 12:14pm | Post# 2898

Grimweasel you have my respect for writing that post...(cant explain it...just a feeling that come after reading the post)..

Actually, I am quite afraid of posting here but well, we can be a fool only once if we ask question...compare to near forever if we dont..

Well I have one question from a post way before. Here it goes:

1. In post #288 Strat post to the thread a signal of selling limit for USDJPY. He expected a response from the thread.
2. Subsequently Dan replied in #318 and #345
3. Amin replied in #347 while Strat replied in #359 & #360 that the huge problem has not been identified.
4. In #361 Strat mentioned the clue is inside that post.
5. In # 432 there is the weekly update including USDJPY.

My question is has the huge problem been identified somewhere (I may really missed it I guess...). Anyway if it has not been answer, based on available chart at that point in time, in additional to answers contributed by Dan and Amin, is the problem being the risk required for small reward? If anyone is interested I will post a chart and some quick calculations.

Btw, at first I wanna PM strat, but first I cant PM (not sure why...i am still new to FF) and well I decided to share my thought as I walk behind the path of other giants.

Cheers

Found the Post to answer...#482. Whew!

patrick25 May 12, 2009 1:52pm | Post# 2899

Almost took it myself and even alerted Baba G and Swami to it in our chat - I chickened out because of the BOSS.

Get out at the FIRST reverse PA to be safe.
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the post. It means a lot to me. What a good looking bond right off .9000. Then I checked the boss out, she has sent bond out last week on top off 20. We also have majo support @ 8650 Blackeagle has mention before. By the way, what a rejection @ 3700 for eurusd currently. I remember who has said something about he will be interested in eurusd if it hits 3700. Strat, you have trained us good. I have noticed a lot of my classmates have recognised bond @ SR. I want to send out my and my classmates(hope they don't mind) appreciation for your teaching and support. Man, I wanted to hug so bad.

AstonDan May 12, 2009 2:24pm | Post# 2900

EURGBP
 
1 Attachment(s)
What a good looking bond right off .9000.
My two cents, for what its worth (about 1 cent ).

EURGBP isn't one to go near until it proves its intentions in either of these areas. I think it's a horrible pair though so i'm not full of love for it!

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