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stewrigh Apr 15, 2011 2:40am | Post# 12221

[quote=Low;4546876]US Indexes telling a similar story:

/quote]


FWIW I watched a vid on Jays thread talking about the Japan earthq and how that impacted the global supply chain and how this will affect quartely earnings reports over the next 3 months, leading to a crash in June.

Low Apr 15, 2011 2:42am | Post# 12222

Crash or correction, doesn't matter. No long term expectations here.

clockwork71 Apr 15, 2011 8:06am | Post# 12223

I will be around more starting this weekend. Someone please tell me why in the hell I drove cross-country. Ugh.

For you Spaniards out there - I am visiting an old colony of yours today - St.Augustine Florida.

Still has the original fort there from the early 1600s

jacanpipster Apr 15, 2011 1:10pm | Post# 12224

Speaking of Spaniards, first of four El Classico this weekend. Go Barca

stewrigh Apr 15, 2011 2:17pm | Post# 12225

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Remember this?

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stewrigh Apr 15, 2011 8:22pm | Post# 12226

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If this plays out I think I and everyone else who follows this thread owe Chris a drink or two(I'm in from the 8hr pinbar).

The added bonus is the positive swap - this is a long-term buy-hold-add trade(rinse and repeat).

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clockwork71 Apr 15, 2011 10:05pm | Post# 12227

Hi! I watch the forum still, but do not participate in the conversation because of my bad English. Chris, I think eurnzd fly is not profitable. On the monthly chart is a pin-bar from the PPZ. We have long had to sell ... IMHO.
Yep....it happens. Had to try it!

Welcome to the thread, and your English is fine mate.

clockwork71 Apr 15, 2011 10:07pm | Post# 12228

Speaking of Spaniards, first of four El Classico this weekend. Go Barca
Still gutted by my beloved Dutch getting beat in the final.....but I have to admit I quite like Spanish footy. Besides, my Oranje played like shit in the final. Still sucks, but that's life I guess.

clockwork71 Apr 18, 2011 10:38am | Post# 12229

Well.......I would say that this could be the turn around in all the markets, and that people have been way too optimistic, but then again - I have wondered that for 3 years. Interesting times we live in.

drebin Apr 18, 2011 2:10pm | Post# 12230

Well.......I would say that this could be the turn around in all the markets, and that people have been way too optimistic, but then again - I have wondered that for 3 years. Interesting times we live in.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=32152

Hey CW and all,


see the link above. some scary stuff. It might be safe to buy the Aussie...

this country is doomed. Glad I shorted EUR/JPY last night and I have been short the USD/CAD since January. Looking to buy AUD/USD tout suite.

clockwork71 Apr 18, 2011 4:02pm | Post# 12231

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=32152

Hey CW and all,


see the link above. some scary stuff. It might be safe to buy the Aussie...

this country is doomed. Glad I shorted EUR/JPY last night and I have been short the USD/CAD since January. Looking to buy AUD/USD tout suite.
Although I believe in the CAD economy more than the US one.....the biggest problem is that if we start to see a massive move down - oil falls, and so does the CAD. Just take a look at USD/CAD during the financial crisis. All the way to 1.30!

Chris

clockwork71 Apr 18, 2011 4:04pm | Post# 12232

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Check out who I had breakfast with this morning.....
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drebin Apr 18, 2011 8:43pm | Post# 12233

Although I believe in the CAD economy more than the US one.....the biggest problem is that if we start to see a massive move down - oil falls, and so does the CAD. Just take a look at USD/CAD during the financial crisis. All the way to 1.30!

Chris

good lookin out CW. I am already playing with house money though. Have fun on your vacation!

kodflakes Apr 19, 2011 9:31am | Post# 12234

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Clock
What do you think about this chart I know very little about stocks but have started paper trading and thought this one looked pretty interesting. Is the current level a decent buy point?
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aserbfx Apr 19, 2011 9:50am | Post# 12235

Clock
What do you think about this chart I know very little about stocks but have started paper trading and thought this one looked pretty interesting. Is the current level a decent buy point?
it would be great to have some bullish price action right at that ppz. a buob, pinbar or something like this. going long without confirming price action, that means a touch trade, is very risky.

clockwork71 Apr 19, 2011 10:22am | Post# 12236

Clock
What do you think about this chart I know very little about stocks but have started paper trading and thought this one looked pretty interesting. Is the current level a decent buy point?

I would be more interested at about the $42 mark......not too far though.

clockwork71 Apr 19, 2011 10:24am | Post# 12237

it would be great to have some bullish price action right at that ppz. a buob, pinbar or something like this. going long without confirming price action, that means a touch trade, is very risky.

Exactly.......think of this area as a place to "hope" for a pinbar or something. The area is all the way down to $42......it looks kind of thick in my opinion - which is good, as it shows there are several points where people might get interested.

4xAddict Apr 19, 2011 12:49pm | Post# 12238

Valid point. I am waiting to see the real insurer flows start moving back into JP though before taking a core yen short.

Assessors can't get to the damaged areas for the most part due to radiation and limited access still. When they start really having to lay up there will be concerted pressure on it to move higher in all likelihood. Intervention is never immediate and preemptive so it bodes well for another buy between 78-80 imho.

That said I will probably be proven wrong and be looking for an entry long around 88
Just watching the USDJPY at the moment and starting to like the look of it as a long from the 0.80-0.82 level as a long building platform.

We are starting to see some decent flows into the JPY at the moment as insurers start to purchase JPY in preparation for claims settlements in the initial phases.

http://www.libanman.com/wp-content/u...als_Latest.pdf

This commitment of traders report from Libanman Futures in NYC shows a very strong dealer position in the JPY which certainly supports that we may see further weakness in the USDJPY in the near term until the large corporates start to reduce their JPY purchasing.

As I indicated a fortnight back we still may see 0.78 again however I am using the 0.80-0.82 band to start building my long term USDJPY longs.

History may prove that other JPY crosses are better exposure to this future JPY weakness however they look more expensive at the moment.

Cheers,

4x.

clockwork71 Apr 19, 2011 5:26pm | Post# 12239

Just watching the USDJPY at the moment and starting to like the look of it as a long from the 0.80-0.82 level as a long building platform.

We are starting to see some decent flows into the JPY at the moment as insurers start to purchase JPY in preparation for claims settlements in the initial phases.

http://www.libanman.com/wp-content/u...als_Latest.pdf

This commitment of traders report from Libanman Futures in NYC shows a very strong dealer position in the JPY which certainly supports that...
Could be.....I certainly won't argue. For now, its simply a matter of timing.....the Yen crosses are going up for a while. (From a longer term perspective...) Of course, thats the rub - timing in Forex can kill you.

clockwork71 Apr 19, 2011 5:27pm | Post# 12240

I see that gold pierced the $1,500 mark today. I am still waiting for that pullback and retest of $1,000....dammit!


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