|4xAddict ||Apr 19, 2011 12:49pm | Post# 12238 |
Valid point. I am waiting to see the real insurer flows start moving back into JP though before taking a core yen short.
Assessors can't get to the damaged areas for the most part due to radiation and limited access still. When they start really having to lay up there will be concerted pressure on it to move higher in all likelihood. Intervention is never immediate and preemptive so it bodes well for another buy between 78-80 imho.
That said I will probably be proven wrong and be looking for an entry long around 88
Just watching the USDJPY at the moment and starting to like the look of it as a long from the 0.80-0.82 level as a long building platform.
We are starting to see some decent flows into the JPY at the moment as insurers start to purchase JPY in preparation for claims settlements in the initial phases. http://www.libanman.com/wp-content/u...als_Latest.pdf
This commitment of traders report from Libanman Futures in NYC shows a very strong dealer position in the JPY which certainly supports that we may see further weakness in the USDJPY in the near term until the large corporates start to reduce their JPY purchasing.
As I indicated a fortnight back we still may see 0.78 again however I am using the 0.80-0.82 band to start building my long term USDJPY longs.
History may prove that other JPY crosses are better exposure to this future JPY weakness however they look more expensive at the moment.