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-   -   Fib 4Hour MTF Moving Average (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=149508)

robby2007 Jan 27, 2009 7:45pm | Post# 1

The Only Method that worked for me
 
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Hello people, I am starting this because this is the only method that itīs giving me pips and giving me hope, because yes, I have lost a lot, and with this thread i intend to try to help the newbies (like me) the method that is saving my life and my money lately, of course I would like positive ideas and maybe improvements, my native language is spanish, so I apologize if I make mistakes, I have been using this method on a live account for almost 3 months, but I will be posting a demo (for obvious reasons) which are very similar to my live, the system is very mechanical but needs human intervention on making a desition.
The Rules:
-Only Trade the 4H chart
-I only use one indicator – MTF Moving Average (only to have a visual of the current daily trend), the settings are as follow: TimeFrame 1440, MAPeriod 50, Shift 0, Method 1, Price 0
-Find the latest movement that has not been retraced to the 38.2 yet
-Draw a fib on that movement
-We are interested only on the 38.2 and 61.8
-If the market is short, when it starts to retrace you put a pending short on the 38.2 fib line with the SL on the 61.8, plus another pending short on the 61.8, with a 100 pip SL
-Always look at the MTF Moving Average and try to enter only on the same direction, if you enter in opposite, I sugest you use a smaller TP
-I put a trailing stop of 75 pips on the regular pairs and let it run until it closes on SL or the TS, and for the volatile pairs I use 100 pips TS
Ok tha is it, I will illustrate the method with some pics, I hope I made myself clear, feel free to ask, letīs make this something productive NOT DESTRUCTIVE, whoever donnīt like this method, donīt use it. I hope this helps some lost people around, regards and happy trading.
I donīt know why the name of the thread has changed to Fib 4Hour Moving Average, just to clarify, the MTF Moving average is not considered to enter trades, just the Fibs, i have it only to have a visual aid of the current daily trend
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robby2007 Jan 27, 2009 7:54pm | Post# 2

EU
 
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Here is an example of where i should place the pendings
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robby2007 Jan 27, 2009 7:59pm | Post# 3

EU Previous Short
 
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Another example
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SmoothTrader Jan 27, 2009 8:04pm | Post# 4

-If the market is short, when it starts to retrace you put a pending short on the 38.2 fib line with the SL on the 61.8, plus another pending short on the 61.8, with a 100 pip SL
This portion is a bit confusing. Please clarify?

Thank you and green pips to all.

jtmoore007 Jan 27, 2009 8:06pm | Post# 5

This portion is a bit confusing. Please clarify?

Thank you and green pips to all.
I agree. What is the point of closing 1st order. Just put initial stop 100 pips above/below the 62

TheHefner Jan 27, 2009 8:44pm | Post# 6

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Hey.

How are you judging the correct placement of the Fibs if you don't draw them until you see a correction to 38.2 level, which is a entry spot?

Also, If you enter at the 38,2 level and you trail stop at 75. Say price moves 95 pips and then reverses so you make 25 pips. Would you consider re-entering with another test of 38.2? you do you just wait for it to go to the 68 level?

Thanks for posting this

Adam
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Paul88 Jan 27, 2009 9:36pm | Post# 7

may i know ur Moving Average Line is EMA50?
 
glad to hear have a simple and profitable system to follow

may i know your moving average line Ema50?

robby2007 Jan 27, 2009 9:51pm | Post# 8

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This portion is a bit confusing. Please clarify?

Thank you and green pips to all.
I hope this Pic helps, in between these two points there was no retrace yet and the market was going down, so we want to go short on a retrace of that movement, to be specific on the 38.2 or the 61.8, i hope this clarifies
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robby2007 Jan 27, 2009 9:54pm | Post# 9

Hey.

How are you judging the correct placement of the Fibs if you don't draw them until you see a correction to 38.2 level, which is a entry spot?

Also, If you enter at the 38,2 level and you trail stop at 75. Say price moves 95 pips and then reverses so you make 25 pips. Would you consider re-entering with another test of 38.2? you do you just wait for it to go to the 68 level?

Thanks for posting this

Adam
If you pay attention to your picture, you are drawing your fib from a movement previous to a little retrace, which i am sure retraced to a 61.8 fib line, Draw your fibs in between two points that has no retrace to any fib line, and if the 0 and 100 lines arenīt broken i will consider reentering on a second test of the 38.2

robby2007 Jan 27, 2009 9:56pm | Post# 10

MTF Moving Average
 
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Sorry i forgot to post the MTF Moving Average, here you go
#MTF_MovingAverage.mq4

robby2007 Jan 27, 2009 11:45pm | Post# 11

Current Trade
 
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Another example
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aelimian Jan 28, 2009 12:35am | Post# 12

Another example

This trade appears to be against the direction of the MA?

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 12:51am | Post# 13

This trade appears to be against the direction of the MA?
It is, but that is the latest movement which was without a retrace, plus it is pretty far away from the MA, plus i never said donīt take the trades against the MA, but if you take them use a smaller TP or TS, of course i am looking to short this currency around 129.30, if it doesnīt turn around before that, right now it is sitting on the 50% from the latest daily down move, so i might be taking my profit if i see it going down and enter short, please i am not sugesting to take this trade i am only saying what i think, trade at your own risk, regards
Robby.

ruthere2 Jan 28, 2009 1:04am | Post# 14

Looks Brilliant
 
This looks brilliant! I just did some back testing and it looks like it will work out very well. But I noticed that some of the pairs don't hit 75 pips before turning back again so the trailing stop wouldn't be hit. It looks like some profit should be taken off of the table before 75 pip trailing stop. Does that sound correct?

SmoothTrader Jan 28, 2009 1:04am | Post# 15

-If the market is short, when it starts to retrace you put a pending short on the 38.2 fib line with a 100 pip SLthe SL on the 61.8, plus another pending short on the 61.8, with a 100 pip SL
From your first post, I assume that you meant to add the GREEN and delete the RED. Then it makes sense. The way you had it written, a person would enter the trade at the 38.2 fib line and if the market should move to the 61.8 fib line then their SL would have been hit at the same price that their next pending sell order.

If this is correct, I would suggest you edit your 1st post.

Thank you and I appreciate your effort since English is not your native language.

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 1:15am | Post# 16

This looks brilliant! I just did some back testing and it looks like it will work out very well. But I noticed that some of the pairs don't hit 75 pips before turning back again so the trailing stop wouldn't be hit. It looks like some profit should be taken off of the table before 75 pip trailing stop. Does that sound correct?
You are right, some of the pairs donīt hit the TS, right now i am doing GU, GJ, EJ, and AU which are very volatile pairs, and on my live i am trading just 0.1, so the best thing to do is trade 0.2 or whatever and take half of the profit at +50, move SL to 0 and then let it run

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 1:19am | Post# 17

From your first post, I assume that you meant to add the GREEN and delete the RED. Then it makes sense. The way you had it written, a person would enter the trade at the 38.2 fib line and if the market should move to the 61.8 fib line then their SL would have been hit at the same price that their next pending sell order.

If this is correct, I would suggest you edit your 1st post.

Thank you and I appreciate your effort since English is not your native language.
If the market is short, when it starts to retrace you put a pending short on the 38.2 fib line with the SL on the 61.8, plus another pending short on the 61.8, with a 100 pip SL.

i think is very clear, put 2 pending shorts, one on the 38.2 and another on the 61.8, the 38.2 pending should have a SL where the 61.8 is, and the 61.8 should have a 100 pip SL, as i said my english is not very good, so please correct me if i am wrong, maybe i am not realizing of my mistake

SmoothTrader Jan 28, 2009 1:22am | Post# 18

If the market is short, when it starts to retrace you put a pending short on the 38.2 fib line with the SL on the 61.8, plus another pending short on the 61.8, with a 100 pip SL.

i think is very clear, put 2 pending shorts, one on the 38.2 and another on the 61.8, the 38.2 pending should have a SL where the 61.8 is, and the 61.8 should have a 100 pip SL, as i said my english is not very good, so please correct me if i am wrong, maybe i am not realizing of my mistake
From what you have here, it would make sense to enter ONLY one pending order @ 38.2 with a SL at the 61.8 plus 100 pips.

The way you have it written your original short order would be closed with a SL at the 61.8 and a brand new order would be opened at the exact same price, 61.8 with a SL 100 pips higher.

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 1:38am | Post# 19

From what you have here, it would make sense to enter ONLY one pending order @ 38.2 with a SL at the 61.8 plus 100 pips.

The way you have it written your original short order would be closed with a SL at the 61.8 and a brand new order would be opened at the exact same price, 61.8 with a SL 100 pips higher.
That is exactly the way i am doing it, i enter at the 38.2, and have my SL on the 61.8, if price continues to the 61.8 and takes out my trade on SL, at that same spot (which is the 61.8) i will sell again with a SL 100 pips away from my second entry (61.8), hope itīs clear

SmoothTrader Jan 28, 2009 1:46am | Post# 20

That is exactly the way i am doing it, i enter at the 38.2, and have my SL on the 61.8, if price continues to the 61.8 and takes out my trade on SL, at that same spot (which is the 61.8) i will sell again with a SL 100 pips away from my second entry (61.8), hope itīs clear
Now it is clear.

Thank you

jinsen Jan 28, 2009 2:44am | Post# 21

Hi robby,

Just ask a few questions.

Q1) May i know what risk percentage you use for this strategy. I saw in the first few posts that the account statement that you mostly trade 0.1, 0.2 and 1.0 lot. The stoploss can be up to 400pips

Q2) Where should i take the profit at?

Q3) Since you had trade more than us. what is the average fib percentage you encountered.?For example, instead of 28.2%, it start to retracement. Most of the time, it strat at 58%.

regards
jin

samer960 Jan 28, 2009 2:46am | Post# 22

eu
 
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hi and thanks for sharing your method
attached is a chart of EU where i have placed 2 arrows , please let me know if i understood well what u are doing .
thanks
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robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 3:12am | Post# 23

Hi robby,

Just ask a few questions.

Q1) May i know what risk percentage you use for this strategy. I saw in the first few posts that the account statement that you mostly trade 0.1, 0.2 and 1.0 lot. The stoploss can be up to 400pips

Q2) Where should i take the profit at?

Q3) Since you had trade more than us. what is the average fib percentage you encountered.?For example, instead of 28.2%, it start to retracement. Most of the time, it strat at 58%.

regards
jin
1) i trade max 10% of my account, the statement is from a demo which i am trying to stress to see how far can i go with this, the money management itīs up to you and how much yopu can handle
2) i use a trailing Stop and usually let them run until closes automatically if i am not at the screen, demo it and get the hang of it
3) i donīt really understand your question, i use 38.2 and 61.8 as entries, only those, sometimes bounces the 38.2, sometime the 61.8, sometimes the 50% (which i donīt use)

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 3:20am | Post# 24

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hi and thanks for sharing your method
attached is a chart of EU where i have placed 2 arrows , please let me know if i understood well what u are doing .
thanks
Here
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robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 3:25am | Post# 25

Currently open and pendings
 
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Here are the currently open trades and the pendings, letīs see how they end up
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jinsen Jan 28, 2009 3:35am | Post# 26

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is this consider

i missed the 38.2% but since it moved to 50%. I enter short.
is it advisable for renentry if fib had been retested
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robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 3:42am | Post# 27

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is this consider

i missed the 38.2% but since it moved to 50%. I enter short.
is it advisable for renentry if fib had been retested
I donīt use the 50% for entries,
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samer960 Jan 28, 2009 3:47am | Post# 28

short EU
 
hi again
why u hhave a pending short order on EU at 1.3315 ? could explain why u took this panding order
thank u

ruthere2 Jan 28, 2009 3:59am | Post# 29

Here are the currently open trades and the pendings, letīs see how they end up
I think I understand your concept but looking at your current trading chart, I can't figur out your entries for two of them. Can you show your chart for the EU with your FOB retracements? I can't get your sell figure no matter how I slice the FIB tool. Thanks.

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 4:00am | Post# 30

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hi again
why u hhave a pending short order on EU at 1.3315 ? could explain why u took this panding order
thank u
Supply and demand, something all of us should know or learn
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Laborant Jan 28, 2009 4:01am | Post# 31

It is, but that is the latest movement which was without a retrace, plus it is pretty far away from the MA, plus i never said donīt take the trades against the MA, but if you take them use a smaller TP or TS, of course i am looking to short this currency around 129.30, if it doesnīt turn around before that, right now it is sitting on the 50% from the latest daily down move, so i might be taking my profit if i see it going down and enter short, please i am not sugesting to take this trade i am only saying what i think, trade at your own risk, regards
Robby....
Thanks Robby,This is quite promising trading system, and seem to be successfull with high percentage, every trading system has one "but" side and the "but" side of this trading system is how to place fibonacci levels. So, But how do you decide to put the fibo levels, because there are some graphs that I would prefer to put fibo levels in different ways...

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 4:02am | Post# 32

I think I understand your concept but looking at your current trading chart, I can't figur out your entries for two of them. Can you show your chart for the EU with your FOB retracements? I can't get your sell figure no matter how I slice the FIB tool. Thanks.
That is supply and demand, another technique i use, sorry if i am confusing you guys but we all should learn this, that has nothing to do with the method but we should be aware of this areas to support the other techniques we apply

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 4:07am | Post# 33

Thanks Robby,This is quite promising trading system, and seem to be successfull with high percentage, every trading system has one "but" side and the "but" side of this trading system is how to place fibonacci levels. So, But how do you decide to put the fibo levels, because there are some graphs that I would prefer to put fibo levels in different ways...
You have to try and find a movement that started and hasnīt retraced yet, that is the way i do it, so when it starts to retrace you set your pendings

fugly Jan 28, 2009 4:09am | Post# 34

thanks for sharing robby

melpheos Jan 28, 2009 4:12am | Post# 35

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=90540

Not much differences beside the additional entry on 68 retracement with the 100 pips SL.

I'll have a look on the additional entry. What is the TP in this case ?

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 4:12am | Post# 36

thanks for sharing robby
No problem my friend, letīs give to receive, i hope you guys do as well as i am with this method, it is not the holy grail, but works nice for me, letīs make pips together, well i need some sleep it is 5:00 a.m for me and havenīt slept all night so i guess iīll see you tomorrow, happy trading and may the pips be with us

Laborant Jan 28, 2009 4:18am | Post# 37

That is supply and demand, another technique i use, sorry if i am confusing you guys but we all should learn this, that has nothing to do with the method but we should be aware of this areas to support the other techniques we apply
There is nothing confusing I think. The price goes to retracement levels in most times and goes back to (down or up). So when you see that the retracement begins that set your pending orders in the fibo levels as explaind by Robby and that is it, wait for the price action to move... I think if you find the trend direction correctly then there is nothing to loose. Simply one method to see if the trend begin or not is to use RSI - 50 level. and you can have your own system of finding the trend direction. Nothing difficult really

WedWed Jan 28, 2009 4:21am | Post# 38

But This is not Fib :(
 
Supply and demand, something all of us should know or learn

Thanx Roppy for sharing u nice system using Fib..

I think is better to concern on your system which you explain it abouve.. with out trying or envolving other strategy on it.. just to take it pure and not distort the idea of Fib..

Thanx again i will give it try.

robby2007 Jan 28, 2009 4:24am | Post# 39

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=90540

Not much differences beside the additional entry on 68 retracement with the 100 pips SL.

I'll have a look on the additional entry. What is the TP in this case ?
well i usually take profit when i see the market is reversing or let the trailing do itīs job, the basic idea is to enter on the 38.2 (for not missing the trend continuation), and if the market continues to the 61.8, it should retrace from there, but if it continues, maybe we are in a trend change, so we start doing the fibs in the oppossite way, there will be times that we will find those ranging days and loose a couple of trades in a row, but forward testing i have find that if we do this consistently those loses will be very little compared to the winnings, and i like leavin the TS do itīs job because severasl times i have caught 200 pip movements, ok now iīll go to bed

maximteo Jan 28, 2009 4:41am | Post# 40

Thanks Robby for sharing this system.
I have a silly question though.. why 38.2 and 61.8 fibo and not 50%?
Is there a reason behind this?


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