Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Commercial Content (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=158)
-   -   Sonic R. System (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=114792)

p2pfast Sep 10, 2009 10:33am | Post# 6161

The candle high was above the dragon, but the candle closed below the upper band of the dragon.



Close, close, close!
You have open my eyessss. Candle CLOSE is the key word. Thanks and many many thanks.

heartstart Sep 10, 2009 11:13am | Post# 6162

2 Attachment(s)
Hey DD I just got off the graveyard shift on my third shift and now on my first my first shift and have a minute to response to what we say we saw on the U/J during the Asian session. Truthfully I believe SnuSnufreak predicted it and Domas4 screamed it out right as it was breaking up. Right as I was leaving for work 10:15EST I got your message to stay away from it but was triggered. I had to make a quick decision and decided to close it with a 15 pip loss instead of 36 pips. Good call on that. With that being said I think it is important for me to ask why I lost and here is my rationale and please correct me if I am wrong.


Why I lost

  1. At first analysis the retracement was too far to the right which signifies to me that the explosion up would be a minimum one (noted by the red arrow). The wider the retrace the less power it has to move in a desired direction. I think. Notice how wide it was and looked where it ended up (forming a double top). A nice spot would have been where the yellow arrow is. Green was just my entry point.
  2. It was the Asian session. Not much steam and one of the suggested rules of sonic to never trade Asian. I know you think otherwise. If the move was tighter and during the NYO there may have been some movement. Also when reading the post and sonic was formulating his method he mention the fast moving pairs are G/U, E/J and the slow and steady were U/J, E/U. I have added another chart to give an example of a tight retracement and break to take profit. This is a very poor example because the candle never closed above the dragon but notice how tight (eyeballing it about 38.2% retrace). If I took this trade The

EP- 94.80
SL-10+3spread
1st TP 94.93 (13 pips) at the first resistance line. Not great R/R
2nd TP would have been 30pips at 95.11

What did I learn?
Be Picky on trades that will allow you at least 1to 2 ratio on TP 1
Take mental note of Retracements whether they close in the dragon a strong resistance etc.
Leave U/J alone until NYO to give it the likelihood of reaching its target.

Let me know if I am on the right track with this and please offer suggestions
Seems like everyone is making good strides today. I was to busy slaving away at the job. O'well sonic setup shall return

Good job everyone
Click to Enlarge

Name: usdjpy trade1.gif
Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: usdjpy trade2.gif
Size: 40 KB


ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 11:37am | Post# 6163

1 Attachment(s)
Drawing pictures of what may come to pass, or not
Click to Enlarge

Name: EU 09-10-2009 waiting.jpg
Size: 137 KB

snusnufreak Sep 10, 2009 11:52am | Post# 6164

Drawing pictures of what may come to pass, or not
DD, could you please explain what makes you think that these waves are relevant instead of taking into the consideration the previous high and counting the current one as a lower high?

ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 12:34pm | Post# 6165

1 Attachment(s)
DD, could you please explain what makes you think that these waves are relevant instead of taking into the consideration the previous high and counting the current one as a lower high?
The dragon, it is all about the dragon.
Click to Enlarge

Name: EU 09-10-2009 waiting1.jpg
Size: 132 KB

ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 1:00pm | Post# 6166

1 Attachment(s)
Drawing pictures of what may come to pass, or not
"Que Sera, Sera ...Whatever Will Be, Will Be..."
Click to Enlarge

Name: EU 09-10-2009 waiting no more1.jpg
Size: 131 KB

ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 1:10pm | Post# 6167

1 Attachment(s)
"Que Sera, Sera ...Whatever Will Be, Will Be..."

the next line must be "rally to first TP ..."

First TP +30 and Stop loss now to BE.
Click to Enlarge

Name: EU 09-10-2009 waiting no more2.jpg
Size: 144 KB

snusnufreak Sep 10, 2009 1:43pm | Post# 6168

The dragon, it is all about the dragon.
DD, explain more plz. I remember you saing that price preferably needs to close within the dragon, but it can still close below and triger long, so I'm still confused why u didn't consider the previous high?

ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 1:47pm | Post# 6169

1 Attachment(s)
the next line must be "rally to first TP ..."

First TP +30 and Stop loss now to BE.
I have to run out ... stop loss is BE, TP2 is 1.4641,

What happens, happens.

I showed this trade from pre-Sonic waves through TP1. That means it is possible to identify a potential SonicR well before the waves have fully developed. This might have something to do with why this set-up offers such a "suspiciously" high winning percentage. There are losers, of course. But the foundation in price action should filter out a good number of losers, wouldn't you agree?
Click to Enlarge

Name: EU 09-10-2009 waiting no more3.jpg
Size: 139 KB

SpecialEd Sep 10, 2009 2:20pm | Post# 6170

I have to run out ... stop loss is BE, TP2 is 1.4641,

What happens, happens.

I showed this trade from pre-Sonic waves through TP1. That means it is possible to identify a potential SonicR well before the waves have fully developed. This might have something to do with why this set-up offers such a "suspiciously" high winning percentage. There are losers, of course. But the foundation in price action should filter out a good number of losers, wouldn't you agree?
Hi DDTrader,

I have enjoyed your insights for a long time. I don't post much because I'm trying to learn and don't have much confidence. I got all those vouches testing and being a nice guy. lol

I did want to say nice call on that "what will be..." post a few pages back. You mentioned that it was all about the Dragon. I agree, but it was also about the 50% retrace, which I think works quite often. I refer to the 50% retrace of that run from 4502 to 4579, then back to your 4539 area.

My two cents. Thanks for all the lessons and good examples.
Ed

ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 5:12pm | Post# 6171

I did want to say nice call on that "what will be..." post a few pages back. You mentioned that it was all about the Dragon. I agree, but it was also about the 50% retrace, which I think works quite often. I refer to the 50% retrace of that run from 4502 to 4579, then back to your 4539 area.

My two cents. Thanks for all the lessons and good examples.
Ed
Hi Ed,

Thank you for the compliment.

I agree with your observation concerning the 50% retracement level as it is indeed often an important S/R level.

My statement about the dragon was meant to direct SF's attention to the fact that the SonicR is specifically concerned with Highs and Lows in relation to the Dragon. But your point about the 50% level certainly is relevant, and is required for any understaniding of the "Big Picture" of what price action was attempting to do there.

Thank you for pointing that out to us.

All the best,

-DD

PS I guess I better try to be a nicer guy, because those vouches seem pretty hard to come by

SpecialEd Sep 10, 2009 5:24pm | Post# 6172

I guess I better try to be a nicer guy, because those vouches seem pretty hard to come by
LOL I just checked. I did my job in that department some time ago. Hope your "boys" TraderatHome and Domas4 are reading this.

Again, thanks for all your training on Sonic-R and your clear view of the action.

traderathome Sep 10, 2009 5:57pm | Post# 6173

2 Attachment(s)
EU M15: Could be weakening. Both a Monthly and Weekly pivot is at 1.4601, and it would not be out of the question for one last pump up to that whole number area. Will be interesting to see what happens.
EU M15: Indeed, "...not out of the question...."! European session traders began selling off on big volume which drove price down hard. Then the price was indeed pumped right back up to the highs on lower and lower volume. Then, guess what? Yep! Another heavy selloff on a volume spike that sticks out like a sore thumb....with pin bar and everything! Makes me think the pros are gonna pull the plug on the support they have been giving the euro against the dollor lately...but that is speculation. The price action and volume action, however, in this case seem to be pretty clear. Comments anyone?
Click to Enlarge

Name: # 063.gif
Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: # 068.gif
Size: 36 KB

ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 6:09pm | Post# 6174

I have to run out ... stop loss is BE, TP2 is 1.4641,

What happens, happens.
And what happened, of course, is that the second lot was stopped out at breakeven.

Trade Totals for this week (8/08-8/10):

4 SonicR Trades (each posted here in this thread, 3/4 post before trigger, one posted soon after trigger):

Trade 1: +60 pips on Lot 1
Trade 1: +26 pips on Lot 2
Trade 2: +45 pips on Lot 1
Trade 2: +30 pips on Lot 2
Trade 3: +35 pips on Lot 1
Trade 3: +00 pips on Lot 2
Trade 4: +30 pips on Lot 1
Trade 4: +00 pips on Lot 2

226pips/4 trades = 56.5 pips/trade average profit
226pips/8 Lots = 28.25 pips average profit/lot traded

Not too bad for three days work (I am taking tomorrow off to visit a friend of mine who is also a trader).

traderathome Sep 10, 2009 6:14pm | Post# 6175

And what happened, of course, is that the second lot was stopped out at breakeven.

Trade Totals for this week (8/08-8/10):

4 SonicR Trades (each posted here in this thread, 3/4 post before trigger, one posted soon after trigger):

Trade 1: +60 pips on Lot 1
Trade 1: +26 pips on Lot 2
Trade 2: +45 pips on Lot 1
Trade 2: +30 pips on Lot 2
Trade 3: +35 pips on Lot 1
Trade 3: +00 pips on Lot 2
Trade 4: +30 pips on Lot 1
Trade 4: +00 pips on Lot 2

226pips/4 trades = 56.5 pips/trade average profit
226pips/8 Lots = 28.25 pips average profit/lot...
Superb trading, ddaytrader. Congratulations!

SpecialEd Sep 10, 2009 6:18pm | Post# 6176

And what happened, of course, is that the second lot was stopped out at breakeven.

Trade Totals for this week (8/08-8/10):

4 SonicR Trades (each posted here in this thread, 3/4 post before trigger, one posted soon after trigger):

Trade 1: +60 pips on Lot 1
Trade 1: +26 pips on Lot 2
Trade 2: +45 pips on Lot 1
Trade 2: +30 pips on Lot 2
Trade 3: +35 pips on Lot 1
Trade 3: +00 pips on Lot 2
Trade 4: +30 pips on Lot 1
Trade 4: +00 pips on Lot 2

226pips/4 trades = 56.5 pips/trade average profit
226pips/8 Lots = 28.25 pips average profit/lot...
I went back and studied your posts on the last trade. Great trading and nice patience. Thanks. Enjoy your visit and well-earned weekend!

ddaytrader Sep 10, 2009 6:44pm | Post# 6177

EU M15: Indeed, "...not out of the question...."! European session traders began selling off on big volume which drove price down hard. Then the price was indeed pumped right back up to the highs on lower and lower volume. Then, guess what? Yep! Another heavy selloff on a volume spike that sticks out like a sore thumb....with pin bar and everything! Makes me think the pros are gonna pull the plug on the support they have been giving the euro against the dollor lately...but that is speculation. The price action and volume action, however, in this...
Hi TAH,

I do not have as much confidence in my longer term outlook as I do my SonicR M15 reads. I do look forward to your analysis, and I often find it very helpful. My only comment tonight wold be this: The S&P closed right at resistance. If the US equities continue their rally, then EU will likely continue to push toward a restes of its all time high. If US equities correct this rally, or resume their bear market, then the USD should rally against its trading partners, and thus the EU should decline.

In my opinion, world stock markets, not currencies, are driving prices this time around. It would be interesting, if you were so inclined, to hear your analysis of the SP500 Index, as this may offer important clues as to the dircection currencies will be taking.

Thank you for sharing your analysis with us. I may not always comment, TAH, but I always read your posts with great interest.

Thank you,

-DD

Muhammad989 Sep 10, 2009 7:40pm | Post# 6178

great success this week for DD

traderathome Sep 11, 2009 12:19am | Post# 6179

I have found that the best way to use those artificial pivots (by artificial I mean they are based on formulas using PA inputs, but not PA itself) is this:

1) I use them only for TP's. I do not generally use them to decide to take a trade or not. That decision is based primarily on wave analysis.

2) As I use them for TP's, the best use I have made of them is that I look for those floor pivot levels that correspond to actual swing privot levels, prior areas of congestion, etc. In other words, I will select TP's near the floor pivots that are...
"I would bet that a close examination would show that PA respects those levels that match to prior actual chart points, while tending to act as those in no man'sland aren't even there." -

I believe you hit the nail squarely on the head.

traderathome Sep 11, 2009 12:39am | Post# 6180

1 Attachment(s)
Hi TAH,

I do not have as much confidence in my longer term outlook as I do my SonicR M15 reads. I do look forward to your analysis, and I often find it very helpful. My only comment tonight wold be this: The S&P closed right at resistance. If the US equities continue their rally, then EU will likely continue to push toward a restes of its all time high. If US equities correct this rally, or resume their bear market, then the USD should rally against its trading partners, and thus the EU should decline.

In my opinion, world stock markets, not...
I have this "saved in a box" perspective of the forex market that, above all other considerations, is the determination of the "big boys" to make their weekly, monthly profits. No matter what happens, they therefore jack the price up and down, irregardless of whether the direction of the current pump or dump is in sync with logic, or the "news". They are going to make their weekly cut, no matter what! And to do this, they have to jack the price up and down, because they can't just keep it moving in one direction only. So, while I respect WHEN the news hits, because it may set off one of these profit making manipulations of the "big boys", I don't much listen to WHAT the news is.

I'll say it again, while "news" is sometimes a reason for the price to move, it is more often just an excuse to move it.

Anyway, we potentially have some serious bearish divergence on the EU daily chart........
Click to Enlarge

Name: # 070.gif
Size: 28 KB


© Forex Factory