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-   -   Yes, trading can be profitable (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1051651-yes-trading-can-be-profitable)

owkenobi Jan 7, 2021 9:04am | Post# 1

Yes, trading can be profitable
 
Hallo everyone.
Yes, trading can be profitable.
Very profitable.
The frankness of the two previous sentences is becouse I want to immediately dispel the doubts that surely many have about this job and that I often see expressed here in the forum.
I'm not here to sell anything or even share my system, sorry but I've worked hard too long to get where I am and no one has ever helped me along the way.
Of course it is not easy to be able to develop a system that gives consistent economic results, but it is possible to do so and, in the end, the final rules that are reached are very simple.
When this happens, when you understand that you have developed out your system, the satisfaction is such that it will pay you back in an instant for all the sacrifices made along the way, all the hours spent studying the charts, reading books or ForexFactory forums (which are extremely useful at first).
Because, let's face it, being a professional trader is the best job in the world because it doesn't set you limits.
What I can say is that the "trader" is a very personal job, not only because it will take away a lot of time that maybe you could devote more to family or friendships and that you will instead pass alone in front of a computer screen, but above all because even the system you arrive at later will be something very personal and discretionary.
Obviously I'm talking about my experience and my system is "mine" in the deepest sense of the term because in the end you will never become profitable by copying someone else's system because copying does not mean having understood the lesson, like at school.
The direct consequence of what I have just stated is that, again in my opinion, the only way to work as a trader is in a discretionary, not mechanical, way. So personally I will never entrust my money to a "robot" but, as foreseen by my system, the final decision whether to "pull the trigger" or not is always up to me.
I am also a programmer and over the years I have developed my own "set" of indicators that help me a lot in technical analysis and make me understand immediately the situation of that particular chart.
So, to top it off, don't despair if you're still in the phase where you can't "see" the light at the end of the tunnel because, sooner or later, you get there.
I hope I was helpful,
Happy trading everyone!
Giorgio.

P.S. sorry but English is not my mother tongue and I therefore made extensive use of "google translator".

tommydoginti Jan 7, 2021 11:56am | Post# 2

Thanks for your sharing!

May I also add my thoughts and experience on this, cause I maybe the other end of the spectrum, which is believer of mechanical trading

When I say mechanical can be successful, I also agree that it is not like a rigid “if>then” system. I think the ultimate version of a program, to be profitable in a long run, is a mosaic model, forever changing and optimizing based however long in history it would refer to. Eventually both discretionary and mechanical ends will join, both are likely following a set up, probability evaluation, and TP/SL based on market conditions.

One successful mechanical trader is Dr. Ernest Chan. He has shared in a few videos, that he also believe the ultimate of mechanical is very discretionary like. That’s why he builds AIs but not EAs.

Wish you best in your trading journey!

MrJoker Jan 7, 2021 12:07pm | Post# 3

Hallo everyone. Yes, trading can be profitable. Very profitable. The frankness of the two previous sentences is becouse I want to immediately dispel the doubts that surely many have about this job and that I often see expressed here in the forum. I'm not here to sell anything or even share my system, sorry but I've worked hard too long to get where I am and no one has ever helped me along the way. Of course it is not easy to be able to develop a system that gives consistent economic results, but it is possible to do so and, in the end, the final...
Inspirational stuff

owkenobi Jan 7, 2021 1:33pm | Post# 4

Thanks for your sharing! May I also add my thoughts and experience on this, cause I maybe the other end of the spectrum, which is believer of mechanical trading When I say mechanical can be successful, I also agree that it is not like a rigid “if>then” system. I think the ultimate version of a program, to be profitable in a long run, is a mosaic model, forever changing and optimizing based however long in history it would refer to. Eventually both discretionary and mechanical ends will join, both are likely following a set up, probability...

Hi Tommy, I couldn't agree more and, to be even clearer, I personally have nothing against "mechanical" systems.
If we then talk about AI, as you rightly anticipated, we are discussing intelligent automation, and I thank you for mentioning the name of Dr. Chan, I will deepen my knowledge of this area (AI) that for now I have only scratched on the surface and that , I do not deny it, it intimidates me for the vastness of material and study necessary to just start doing some experiments.
Thanks again and I wish you too to get everything you want!

owkenobi Jan 7, 2021 1:35pm | Post# 5

{quote} Inspirational stuff
Hi MrJoker, thanks for the reply and... yes, that was the intent.

MrJoker Jan 7, 2021 3:12pm | Post# 6

When it comes to entering / exiting positions, do you use certain patterns for this or are you guided by your intuition and not always do it in the same way? I mean whether you act mechanically or leave room for interpretation of what you see on chart. Hope you understood my question and thank you in advance for your answer.

asset21 Jan 7, 2021 8:07pm | Post# 7

Hi There,

Thanks for posting this, and well done on achieving your milestone. I have been trading for 2 years, although not profitable I am at breakeven, but I can't seem to get past this point. I just have a few questions.

1, I understand that a seasoned trader will look at things differently and then profit more consistently, and they say they trade discretionally, but there still must be some insight that can be described? much like driving a car - we do not think about changing gear from 3rd to 4th, our body just knows it and our arms and legs do it, but we know after contemplating it that we do this because we need to speed up, do you know what novices are missing and can you describe it in detail?

2, you said you developed some indicators to see what needed to be seen to trade the way you do - the information they produce, is this the insight to trade profitably? the missing information novices can not see?

3, I have read around 20 forex books and many of them have high detailed strategies, after light backtest, I can see that they don't all produce high winning %, is there something that is needed to be understood or seen, so that you don't need to use a "common system"

4, how long does it take in your opinion to be profitable, if it takes on average 5 years - why does it take so long to "see" what needs to be seen, is it covered so thick and never written about that its really a big secret?

Mike

peterhenders Jan 7, 2021 8:43pm | Post# 8

Hello asset21, if only we could exchange contact I will sit with you on skype ( Liveeterhenderson-2) and get you off your feet from this hurdle. No charge what-so-ever , just some hard knock that are not found in many trading journals.
Its easy if you know how.
all the best mate.

Regards,
Peter Henderson

BWilliam Jan 7, 2021 9:01pm | Post# 9

Hi There, Thanks for posting this, and well done on achieving your milestone. I have been trading for 2 years, although not profitable I am at breakeven, but I can't seem to get past this point. I just have a few questions. 1, I understand that a seasoned trader will look at things differently and then profit more consistently, and they say they trade discretionally, but there still must be some insight that can be described? much like driving a car - we do not think about changing gear from 3rd to 4th, our body just knows it and our arms and legs...
Excellent on point questions.

1. About changing 3rd to 4th gear. The traders has to know about the gear system. The design engineer has to develop the car gear system and the physics behind the gear ratios like torgue. Then you have the autogear system. That's the in depth part that most traders miss. They are stuck with price action with clean candlestick charts that remain unchanged as though time stood still.

2. Indicators are mere tool just like the instruments and meters in the cockpit of a fighter pilot. Those tools are for different needs that was developed from the traders understanding of the market structure, example speed altitude meter and so on. The modern 6 gen fighters are laden with sophisticated latest computing technology, this include the pilots helmet.

3. Very few people understand market structure correctly that price paints on our charts. Lots of written material in books and on forum. None come close to properly represent this subject. Those who know won't tell vv.

4. If you look closely at the intraday candlestick you see lots of volatile up and down candles. It's very difficult to make sense of those jarring price movements so traders label them noise or random. Few traders can make sense of those weird noise to "see" them as orderly well within the market structure, nothing unusual even right down to tick charts. The only difference between lower timeframes and higher timeframes are the speed, frequency and magnitude.

We all see the same bars or candlestick, the difference is how these few traders conceptualise their understanding with a clear objective and quantified approach behind what the majority of the traders classify as untradable noise or simply random. Ofc we won't find such content in the public domain. So the naysayers correctly label it as unicorns with the agreement of the majority traders.

How long does a trader need to be profitable is a different question from how long to "see" the something you label as secrets.

To be profitable, any trader can pull of a winning trade. Many traders are profitable for some long streaks. Does not take long.

The second part to "see" does not require the trader to execute any trade. He needs to engage in serious research work. So each of us have to decide if we want to trade or to invest in research work. Our time is limited, so we can't have both. Active traders do superficial research work. Those engage in research work do limited to not trading. Takes a very long time with generations of researchers build upon the latest work to get to the next step.

So, what's your objective for trading. Your need to make money? Or your desire to "see what needs to be seen"?

For your final question about big secret, if it wasn't everyone would have known about it. So hidden naysayers have to insist unicorns don't exist and the rest say aye.

asset21 Jan 8, 2021 2:36am | Post# 10

{quote} Excellent on point questions. 1. About changing 3rd to 4th gear. The traders has to know about the gear system. The design engineer has to develop the car gear system and the physics behind the gear ratios like torgue. Then you have the autogear system. That's the in depth part that most traders miss. They are stuck with price action with clean candlestick charts that remain unchanged as though time stood still. 2. Indicators are mere tool just like the instruments and meters in the cockpit of a fighter pilot. Those tools are for different...
Thanks for your reply BW, as usual very thought-provoking observations.

Without taking over Kenobis thread, I would say that I am only here to make money, but in short, it just seems so unusually speculative as to why so many people lose, and incidentally, there doesn't seem to be any concrete answers or any way of confirming exactly why it is that they do, I mean, if you really dig deep, does anyone really know? it sure is hard to see it on the surface of FF, or maybe that's what is so hard to grasp - the infinite amount of uncertainty, But I guess if you have been trading for a decade or 2, you have experienced enough success to confirm your beliefs, that you can make consistent money.

BUT, For eg, I once asked a seasoned trader if it was necessary to continue looking deeper into developing strategies to become more successful/consistent and his reply was that "No! because everything has been done already, you just need to work on yourself" (zen koan?) , - I would think that within creativity + profitability = there could lie insight?

I think that as I am writing this, just now, I am reflecting on my own naivety, my experience so far in the markets

dkrock Jan 8, 2021 1:31pm | Post# 11

{quote} it just seems so unusually speculative as to why so many people lose, and incidentally, there doesn't seem to be any concrete answers or any way of confirming exactly why it is that they do
Most people react to individual candle movement and not an average of averages (odds) because most people are not trained to trade and have no idea what they are doing. Candles mean nothing. They are just time segments of price movement.

{quote}I once asked a seasoned trader if it was necessary to continue looking deeper into developing strategies to become more successful/consistent and his reply was that "No! because everything has been done already, you just need to work on yourself"
The only constant in the universe is that everything is constantly changing. You will never see today's sunrise again. I believe in conducting continuous process improvement. If I find something that increases my edge, why would I not use it? While I rarely ever do find an improvement, it is fun to explore them.

asset21 Jan 8, 2021 4:47pm | Post# 12

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{quote} Most people react to individual candle movement and not an average of averages (odds) because most people are not trained to trade and have no idea what they are doing. Candles mean nothing. They are just time segments of price movement. {quote} The only constant in the universe is that everything is constantly changing. You will never see today's sunrise again. I believe in conducting continuous process improvement. If I find something that increases my edge, why would I not use it? While I rarely ever do find an improvement, it is fun...
Thanks, yes I often wonder if it has something to do with that, I am trying to work also from a different angle
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dkrock Jan 9, 2021 12:36am | Post# 13

{quote} Thanks, yes I often wonder if it has something to do with that, I am trying to work also from a different angle {image}
Hopefully you see how incomplete your design is. You cannot tell when to enter and when to exit. You cannot tell if the market is moving vertically or horizontally. You simply have lines running through the candles. Let's imagine you think one of those lines is an entry signal. If true, cool. The problem then becomes where is the exit signal? Your lines are incapable of showing you. So, you are missing the tools that show exits. When you can identify entries and exits across multiple time frames, then you can clearly see vertical movement vs horizontal movement. So, if you think you have an entry signal in your design, then figure out the exit signal. I can tell you that making up an arbitrary take profit value is not a good exit signal. Take profit points do not follow the market. In my opinion, when you can make consistently profitable trades without any candles on your chart, then you will know when to enter and when to exit. Good Luck.

asset21 Jan 9, 2021 4:52am | Post# 14

{quote} Hopefully you see how incomplete your design is. You cannot tell when to enter and when to exit. You cannot tell if the market is moving vertically or horizontally. You simply have lines running through the candles. Let's imagine you think one of those lines is an entry signal. If true, cool. The problem then becomes where is the exit signal? Your lines are incapable of showing you. So, you are missing the tools that show exits. When you can identify entries and exits across multiple time frames, then you can clearly see vertical movement...
Thanks for you feedback, you make good points, I'll keep testing

Doomseeker Jan 9, 2021 10:26am | Post# 15

Forex trading is only profitable to the good traders. This is the part where it gets serious because no one is vr a good trader when they join forex. It is through what you do and how you carry yourself that you are able to become a good trader. There are so many learning resources for the newbies to make them become good traders but most never get to be good traders either because they ruth things or they are just not able to understand what forex trading is all about. Forex trading may seem simple at first but it is not once you really get into it. Yo need to understand the basics and fully master it.

Cogra Jan 9, 2021 10:50am | Post# 16

There is no lie that forex trading can be profitable because it is profitable and there are countless numbers of people who are making a lot from ti every single day. It is all about how you take forex and what you do after you kwn what it is all about. Forex training is a very simple business but only if you are ready to learn and master it. The truth in forex is that it is much easier to lose than ti si to gain and sometimes it is because of the mentality that traders have about buying and selling of which they stick more to buying than selling. One you are able to get rid of that you will be a very good trader because you will make better decisions.

tiborf71 Jan 9, 2021 12:40pm | Post# 17

yes it can be a profitable trade.
you just shouldn't believe the much bullshit they write on my forum.
because everyone here wants to teach the other while he can’t trade either.

LOL.

venividivici Jan 9, 2021 12:50pm | Post# 18

- Find your edge/niche
- Study and Dedicate your time to it, get professional at it
- Don't give up

Most people on FF fail all 3, it takes months to get to point two, if you're lucky and normally years..But people don't want to wait years so they give up.

tiborf71 Jan 9, 2021 1:07pm | Post# 19

the best is someone with a universal attitude.
so don’t get stuck on a topic while looking for a solution.
let only the results speak.

MichaelSch Jan 9, 2021 1:41pm | Post# 20

Market is going from calm periods to calm periods. If you can make deeper thoughts on it, you will make money.


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