Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Interactive Trading (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137)
-   -   Cable Update (GBPUSD) (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10378)

Qu|cksilver Nov 18, 2006 11:16pm | Post# 1

Cable Update (GBPUSD)
 
Hi,
Does anyone agree cable may go up to 1.9050 area? or will continue bearish when the market open on monday?

AhmedFouad Nov 18, 2006 11:57pm | Post# 2

It's very risky now.
It might have bottomed near term at 1.8834/36 and managing to rally beyond 1.90 again. And if someone expects this, he may not be wrong because stochastic made a positive cross, a doji plus a bullish candle but thats not too enough.

Someone else might come.. and say no, It's going down. and he also has good reasons. Why? GBPUSD almost touch the 1.8967-65 resistance, and it might be a place to find plenty of sellers. Also the bullish candle didn't close above 1.8953 bearish candle open. rather closed at 1.8946

All in all..Bullish trend is not confirmed, it has to make a close above 1.8967, things are pretty much trapped within 1.8834/36 low / bottom and 1.8965/67 high / top. And only IF bears enter to take control now and push prices lower again, most likely we will break the 1.8834.

I am staying out until either side is broken.


Qu|cksilver Nov 19, 2006 12:17am | Post# 3

Thanks for your reply.
My strategy when the market open above 1.8950 i will set long because the market open above the resistance.

fingotrader Nov 19, 2006 8:13am | Post# 4

GBPUSD next move......?
 
Hi, I join the tread started by Day Trader and ask you guys the same question about GBPUSD the coming week, any views on where we are going?

Thanks

FT

ghitz Nov 19, 2006 9:26am | Post# 5

Hi, I join the tread started by Day Trader and ask you guys the same question about GBPUSD the coming week, any views on where we are going?

Thanks

FT
move down stops at 50% retrace from 85 to 9170.

apparent continuation up stalls at 38% retrace from last weeks move down.

me thinks there is a higher probability of this being a pullback for the continuation on the way down rather than a move up. we shall see monday.

Qu|cksilver Nov 19, 2006 9:27am | Post# 6

Just simple, if the trend tomorrow bullish you buy if bearish you sell im i correct? Hahahah..



Hi, I join the tread started by Day Trader and ask you guys the same question about GBPUSD the coming week, any views on where we are going?

Thanks

FT

Qu|cksilver Nov 19, 2006 9:29am | Post# 7

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..



move down stops at 50% retrace from 85 to 9170.

apparent continuation up stalls at 38% retrace from last weeks move down.

me thinks there is a higher probability of this being a pullback for the continuation on the way down rather than a move up. we shall see monday.

ghitz Nov 19, 2006 10:00am | Post# 8

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..
that is the other scenario. i am at odds with that one. you could well be right, and the most likely scenario i see contains both.

think monday will be up, and will reverse (between 8990-9020) for continuation down. we will see.

open to both scenarios, up or down.

shahfx Nov 19, 2006 10:00am | Post# 9

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..

Hi,the bull and the bear still fighting.. Will follow the winner of that fight... Rite now..me just stand aside..i just wanna trade when the easiest part of PIPS happen..maybe on tuesday..hehehe

africanpip Nov 19, 2006 10:44am | Post# 10

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..
You've been reading way too many FX editorials in the Sunday papers Hellava inciteful.

stealth_hunterz Nov 19, 2006 8:35pm | Post# 11

well, to me it looks like the bears had been pinned down by the bear not going anywhere further but only hunting for their fishes just right within the perimeter (range bound). It's been struggling too hard. However, it's hard to say for sure and it will eventually break on either sides during the London session. We'll see. I think it would go on to the upside.

Qu|cksilver Nov 19, 2006 10:50pm | Post# 12

I have done alot of analysis since last friday and it shows cable can go up to 1.9033 maybe.. and i don't think today the price will hit that level because today not much news for gbp and usd.

dukeofdents Nov 19, 2006 11:34pm | Post# 13

Okay, screw all the fundamentals, right? Everyone is flipping about this big move off housing starts but before that the charts said to go long on USD, right? I don't care what anyone says, I'm a patriotic American and I'm holding my USD longs!

I will throw all of my heart, soul, and money at American hegemony until I can throw no more, then I will borrow it!

In the meantime I'm going long on Yen!

Takisd Nov 19, 2006 11:41pm | Post# 14

I think we will find lower levels tested again before any trend change. There is too much need to sell in the market. The offers are lower than expected, and the buyers are already all in. 1 surge of sellers and stops are gone. The market is way overbought right now. Entering short with very low margin and just holding it, could land you 300 pips in the long run.(providing you can handle about 100 up max).

NFP will be the deal breaker, and FOMC should move the market also. As the market has been priced at a interest rate decrease. Due to early comments made this month.

I Have short orders in for a break of range. Nothing else. A quick 20 pips. But the price started ontop of the range today, which means it is overbought, and struggling. And the price action looks the same also.

goodthings Nov 20, 2006 12:34am | Post# 15

2 Attachment(s)
The following data is based on this years price movement with the Gbp/Usd

It has moved a 100 pips the difference between the high and low 75% of the time 170/227days
The average distance between the High and Low is 138 pips.
It moves an average of 32 pips against the trend from the opening then reverses and moves 106 pips with the trend above or below its opening price.
The 23.6%retracement has been hit 96.4% of the time 219/227 days
The 38.2% retracement has been hit 82.88% of the time 188/227 days
The 50.0% retracement has been hit 70.4% of the time 159/227 days
The 61.8% retracement has been hit 57.7% of the time 130/227 days.
These retracements are based on either the same day or next day movement.

The average distance between high and low on the first day of the week is 89 pips

On the first day of the week the distance between high and low has been 100 pips are more 38% of the time 17/45 days

The Gbp has move 120 to 140 pips(which it did last Friday) 29 times on Friday with the following first day of the week having a 100 pip movement 9 times 31% of the time

The average day after the Gbp has moved 120-140 pips is 114 pips not including the high of 325 pips and the low of 73 pips.

Taking all this into consideration and looking at the price movement JUST FOR FUN I have purposed the following scenareio. An 82.8 % probability of the cable retracing to 1.8915 which is the 38.2 fib level as well as the daily pivot of last friday's high low close which gives us confluence at that point. It reverses up a max of 100 pips to the 1.9015 level meeting resistence at 1.8957 the MR1P (Middle resistence point between pivot and R1) . Next resistence at the 1.8977 level the previous weeks pivot point and 1.8997 the daily R1. Any thoughts on this and others is appreciated.
gbp daily.doc
Gbp Today.doc

iiivb Nov 20, 2006 1:08am | Post# 16

I defend the K.I.S.S. (Keep It Stupidly Simple) method, I would like to share my Cable point of view.


I agree that is too early to "guess" if Cable going up or down... it has the both chances very opened. Eventhough the HUGE spike on Friday, that can either be considered as a selling oportunity or as a buying one.

Some MA crosses maybe pointing a reverse... other don't... so... I strongly recommend: STAY AWAY OF TRADING UNTIL TUESDAY!

Let's remember xMas rally is coming soon, so maybe we should sit on our hands and wait for that precious opportunity, instead of trying to "guess" the next move on Cable.

Qu|cksilver Nov 20, 2006 4:56am | Post# 17

nice move.. i hope will hit my target today @ 1.9030 then i will short again at 1.9030

kamalhassan Nov 20, 2006 5:45am | Post# 18

Cable short predict
 
nice move.. i hope will hit my target today @ 1.9030 then i will short again at 1.9030
i will follow u but try to hold buy position until hit @1.9036...if can't hit my target..i will start short at 1.9030

Ghostpipper Nov 20, 2006 6:26am | Post# 19

I don't care what anyone says, I'm a patriotic American and I'm holding my USD longs!

I will throw all of my heart, soul, and money at American hegemony until I can throw no more, then I will borrow it!

In the meantime I'm going long on Yen!
U must love Bush too huh? lol good luck with that 1, let me know how that works out for u. IMO he is the all time worst President that we have ever had!!

ghitz Nov 20, 2006 1:17pm | Post# 20

that is the other scenario. i am at odds with that one. you could well be right, and the most likely scenario i see contains both.

think monday will be up, and will reverse (between 8990-9020) for continuation down. we will see.

open to both scenarios, up or down.
so far, 8990 contained attempt up. lets see if asia has something to say.

Qu|cksilver Nov 20, 2006 8:30pm | Post# 21

I can hear Asia whisper at me.. LOL



so far, 8990 contained attempt up. lets see if asia has something to say.

Turveyd Nov 20, 2006 8:43pm | Post# 22

I assume Duke of Dents was joking, and isn't holding GBP/USD long actually anti american and sadly Pro British ??

The problem with that logic is, they both suck sadly, UK's just the 53rd state after all


Held Short pretty much all day for 9pips 24hour and 12hour uptrends still, breaks below 1.8960 and climbing area, then it'll tank and I'll short.

Takes out 1.9000 then I'll jump in long

blinked and missed that Blip


EUR failed to break over 24hour SMA and heading down again, while these 2 differ the moves are generally limited.

neo1599 Nov 20, 2006 9:19pm | Post# 23

I am short for this week.
 
I believe that GU wont be able to get above 1.9 before testing atleast 1.87xx

Thats what my charts seem to say. I am holding a short started at 1.8967.
I am going to be looking to sell all major bull moves.

Neo

Yacob Nov 20, 2006 9:48pm | Post# 24

No i don't think so. GU will go up and will reverse tommorow or on wednesday.
Ok, what ever it is, we will see.. and goodluck.


I believe that GU wont be able to get above 1.9 before testing atleast 1.87xx

Thats what my charts seem to say. I am holding a short started at 1.8967.
I am going to be looking to sell all major bull moves.

Neo

Turveyd Nov 21, 2006 4:30am | Post# 25

Trying to predict long term to me is gambling, no way to predict just react to what is happening live.


Atleast the moment, wish I could make money from a sideways position



Still slight uptrend here, well over 24hour SMA vaguely so means hold Long to me, Eur starting to follow suite.

Qu|cksilver Nov 21, 2006 4:32am | Post# 26

I think this week is very slow moving for gbp/usd because of US public holiday.. but i still go long until the price hit my TP @ 1.9030

Turveyd Nov 21, 2006 9:24am | Post# 27

Stupidly slow isn't it, keeps bouncing off the 24hour SMA. Eur still Downtrending so no ones got a clue direction wise yet.

Ohhh well next rich next week

Turveyd Nov 21, 2006 10:27am | Post# 28

Tempted to go Long here, reason being Eur in a uptrend price area, could create GPB buying.

Turveyd Nov 21, 2006 11:06am | Post# 29

Took eerrrrr 1 pip from that trade, looked possibly for abit, but no it's just dead this week.

Jimbezy Nov 21, 2006 1:28pm | Post# 30

Whats the deal?! Cable is just stalling out, I entered a Long trade last night thinking it would go up at least a little, but nothing. Anyone know what exactly Cable is waiting on?

enoc2g Nov 21, 2006 1:35pm | Post# 31

liquidity is think right now due to the holidays coming up next fundamental data is coming out tommorrow morning, this is gonna be choppy range bound trading unless and until something big happens most large players and hedge funds are not activley taking on positions right now... not to say that we cant get some movement but the probabilites are low... holiday time is usually low volume the market usually takes off after the holiday, where are u long cable from?

AhmedFouad Nov 21, 2006 1:41pm | Post# 32

Lack of volatility, holiday markets reinforce tight ranges in the week ahead. So I bet everyone is just out of the market and seeking a directional movement. It's directionless until now so far. Nobody wants to lose in this Zig-Zag..

hidethereal Nov 21, 2006 1:45pm | Post# 33

Whats the deal?! Cable is just stalling out, I entered a Long trade last night thinking it would go up at least a little, but nothing. Anyone know what exactly Cable is waiting on?
Thanksgiving.

enoc2g Nov 21, 2006 1:54pm | Post# 34

lol

magicfx Nov 21, 2006 2:07pm | Post# 35

LOL!!


1 pip is better than a loss, i missed my limits on my demo trade, so i may be tempted by one pip, just to keep my trading record
if it goes back down, target eur/usd 1.2810, gbp/usd 1.8970 for one pip

though they both went well into profit 10 pips each i would call that a success for a newbie in this market, thanks, thanksgiving! bored!

Tiki Trader Nov 21, 2006 2:10pm | Post# 36

This is easy to trade
 
It is easy to trade GBP this way...

15 minute chart... just trade between the bollinger bands...

made lots of pips the last couple of days just doing that !!

c1ro Nov 21, 2006 3:31pm | Post# 37

It is easy to trade GBP this way...

15 minute chart... just trade between the bollinger bands...

made lots of pips the last couple of days just doing that !!
Hi..
What parameters do u use on bollinger bands?

Thanks..

magicfx Nov 21, 2006 4:30pm | Post# 38

help needed
 
my live trading plan for this week is not to trade live, the week and the charts didnt fit my trading strategy. So i decided to demo trade and practice trading during low volumes and quiet times, just getting a few pips here and there, very short term trades

i placed a short for the eur/usd @ 1.2820 and gbp/usd @ 1.2980

they both went into profit, but decided there was a good chance they would continue and would close when the eur/usd was close to 1.2800, obviously i misread the signals, can you guys give me some guidance on my mistake or what signal i missed in the charts please.

enoc2g Nov 21, 2006 4:36pm | Post# 39

U didnt do anthing wrong its just the current price action thats not good, u did the right thing in not trading live this week, this would have saved me as well, the euro is range bound a good place to short it is near resistance up at 2840 to 2850 after that 2880 with stops above 2900, they key is u want price to really work its ass off to prove u wrong, for example anyone with a stop within the range is pretty much dead unless they take quick profit im more of a swing trader and i thrive on 300 or 400 point moves i havent developed a model yet to trade ranges and insane choppy volitility..

Turveyd Nov 21, 2006 7:29pm | Post# 40

Guess I shoulda been buying bounces off the 5min 288SMA ( 24hour ) line, but 15 - 20 pips after spread really isn't what I'm after, mainly a keep holding too long waiting for something big to develop.


When is Thanksgiving Day exactly ??

GBP and EUR both in very mild uptrend, but not taking a position over night here.


© Forex Factory