Good day gentlemen... 1.1190
finally (b)reached... almost doubted my price prediction model of 10 years, in the last 7days.
But since price prediction is only one part/component (as I already discussed in my journal), it is not much if the "turning radius" is too big.. aka it takes much longer and "wider" than expected. But it was still rather good for IB style trading or not to high leverage/trade-size since it would go through even with the counter spikes. But the more disturbing part was the market STALL or its anomalies...
It took a 7days for price to reach.. Same as last time (on opposite direction - when broker auto-closed my trade the 3rd day before the TP would reached on 6th day).
So it seems! that price prediction still works (again, seems, no attacks pls
. When it doesn't work (judging by the past).. it is either runaway train - entered at peak/bottom (very rare) or there is a huge delay due to "some" reasons, and after delay, there is a rather quick/big change... So todays up is not (just) about the news, but also (primarily in my opinion because of the almost 1 week buildup. Because I see that some seem to try to find a reason in yesterdays (low impact) news for the up today, have to look wider.
I am sure that there were anomalies at play in the market (as some of you also noticed this time), for at least the last 7days ("preventing" this price to reach) - and 1 week before that, to reach it from another direction
That is the reason I pulled out from the trade (3 days ago) from this TE that I have published here, because anomalies were just too great and spikes were unpredictable in either direction. I pulled out very slightly above open price and then re-entered for 1PIP only, just to compensate for some of the SWAP that I have paid due to BUY. I wasn't particularly fond of this BUY (cause I plan(ed) to be in the SELL exclusively for the next 6months) in the first place, but the model predicted rebound at 1.1190, that is why I entered it (opportunistically) 7days ago... And since this was a buy, I paid some rather good interests (swaps) also so even there is slight PIP profit, overall slightly neg return due to SWAP costs.
One thing that I have learned since I started trading is "learn when not to trade", so I pull-ed at the first opportunity after anomalies were spotted for some days (Theresa situation was the first pull-out "air-lock" for my trade, in this TE that I am publishing here).
So to sum up... Price 1.1190 did reach within 7days (with 6 day delay; by my standards). I pulled-out due to the much longer (position) time than expected, for this rather small rebound and due to the rather expensive swaps and thirdly, due to the fact that this was (un)planned to be the last BUY for the next 6months, as I discussed.
I never backed of from this price, for the last week, I even reaffirmed my position (2 days ago), if you are interested, check my previous post(s).
One of you even got the actual price with the (math) derivative plotted on chart (before and after), but with 7day offset of course, but that is outside of this topic.
I am just a little disappointed that it wasn't cleaner and sooner, so that also (tightly leveraged) dailytraders would have something out of it.
Coincidently this is my post #190.. Whenever I posted price (prediction) here, I felt obligated to update (which can be exhausting when there are anomalies/lags/delays - specially when I reaffirm/bet strongly) on the issue and not to just back-off, delete (the post), vanish...
So I feel somewhat peaceful regarding this last prediction and let's leave at that. As I said it already (in my journal)... I will now take a pause on the EURUSD matter (and my journal), re-test some (harvesting) strategy, the price prediction model is always the same (10y+), just harvest (TP/LS/LEV) changes due to market conditions and harvest success of previous/projected parameters. I will keep this TE published and synchronised but I most probably won't trade on it till fall (SEP). Will be trading on other (not published) account since I do not want to disclose TradeList for the moment.
Should anyone would like to know anything else on the matter, can ask. Trolls etc, pass...
And P.S. I really like this particular EURUSD thread, it is funny that the thread owner/opener seems to be gone from this popular thread, so we are in much more relaxed mode on this train