Totally agree with you about the life span of strategies can be short, otherwise everyone would be millionaires with a single EA.
My first strategy is also giving 52-55% win rate with 1.1R. But my approach is not to further optimize it after trying for a week. I found a lot of strategies work only on a few pairs, or within a period of time. I only have 1yr of data to backtest. My thought is if it is CONSISTENTLY profiting last year, i.e. Mostly green months and only one to two flat/red months, it is likely to work at least a few months into the future. I just keep my greed, and stick with the basic. I also dont have the psychology to trade with discipline for now so I learned to write EAs.
In the process I learn a lot about indicators and market interpretation also MQL4 coding
I then move on with a bit more knowledge, and start developing another strategy. Base on my skill level I try to look for a strategy in ANOTHER approach. In my case my first is trend following, so I looked for reversals. Again found a strategy that look profitable, backtest to prove it profitable, forward test a month in demo, then just put it on live.
Repeat the process. Now I am into third and forth strategies. I know more about indicators, so my third is based on volume and oscillators, forth is Renko and momentum.
Just my opinion from my experience.
1. If optimization is not done in a few tries, then just move on before you curve fit. An EA giving you 2-3%/ mth is not bad at all.
2. Have both demo and live acc, test ur strategies on Demo before proceeding to Live. If a strategy has continuous DD over long time (still figuring out how long), put it back to Demo to see if its time is gone
3. Learn coding if you go for EA. I learn both PineScript on TradingView and MQL4. Pinescript is easier for strategy manual backtesting and MQL4 if really go for EA.
4. Start with very basic things. Maybe MAs, then RSI, then Price Action, Oscillators, chart types, etc. along the way you learn very well the function of each indicators, you may also learn how to code them into your EAs!
But congratulation for starting with a winning strategy
Thanks, tommydoginti. I will start learning MQL4 programming soon.
Slowly but surely you will be able to write an EA following your rules no matter how complicated it is. Knowing the code itself also allows you to modify the EAs that you have and tested before as shared in this post. They can become truly "your" EAs when you have the power to optimize its scripts
If you are confident that 1 to 1 RR will yield slightly above 50% on your trade system, maybe you can consider double up your risk on your next trade after losing one, it is like martingale system, instead of double up lot size when the price goes against your direction, you double up the risk on your next trade signal.
Sorry to burst your bubble but 50/50 results its just random trading with random results.. period
easy to do; NOW can YOU make that every day??
Can I ask you this ...
RR=1 This is only exit strategy you are using?
RR 1 means if I risk 50 pips I target 50 pips.
I tested one of the FF popular trading strategies, Period March 2020 to Oct 2020. I get 101 Trade signals.
I use 1 to 1 RR to increase the win rate. I tested it in H4 chart since H1 chart doesn't give good results.
win rate is 58%, But That popular trading strategy thread traders claim they have more win rate.
I have a doubt that they really test that trading strategy seriously.
Are you closing trades only when reaching 1R of profit or SL?
After adding 1 indicator, It filters out 35 trade including losing and winning trade. In the end that indicator increases the win rate. Very interesting observations. Now the win rate is 67% with 1 to 1 R.
Filtering trades you are making sample size smaller ... you have betters result but reliability is lower
The win rate is now 69%.
69% win rate...
100% - 10% -10% -10% -1% + 69% = ?
Also don't forget to deduct commissions, spreads and swaps.
Net gain % is 39%. Please see the excel screen short. you will understand, Bytheway you told us you will share a BB EA, we are waiting for that.
since I Tested the strategy in the H4 chart and we target 1 to 1R and the spread is only 2 to 3 pips in eurusd, so not a big deal here.
And if anyone afraid of swaps I recommend opening a swap-free account.
My conclusion was concern first excel picture.
Adding filter, you are changing conditions for entries. You are changing the system.
So in first system you get 101 entries and second system you get 66 entries… that what I was saying…Next excel picture shows correct numbers of entries for both systems. That is what I pointed out before…
But in my opinion (I do believe is not only mine) 100 trades is not good enough to calculate probabilities like win rate…
My intention to post in your thread, was to turn attention and effort to prepare perfect exit… most of the system have system of rules to place a trade and ONE rule to close it. Why do not work on strategy on closing trades?? Why do not spent some time to enter a trade when market suggest to and leave the market when market suggest doing it?
That’s all I would like to say … please excuse for interruption
I like see people searching solutions.
about the trading system, I just getter a small sample size, I need to test that strategy last 10 years how it performed and I need to use it in several pair before start trading with that system. I will also test a little high RR if I found that strategy is performing well I will keep that strategy.
If you have please share.
This post just reminds me about, oh no...
Not thinking of how many times the price has NOT shown me how it works with this strategy?
Not knowing that it is so often an illusion that a strategy works better on higher timeframe, just because it has happened less times.
Not realizing that to be a worthwhile 'pattern', a 'pattern' needs to have a minimum number of occurrences.
That anything I was working on was just another grain in the sand, no gem pebble like I felt perhaps it was ! I also could find several fruit shaped patterns on the beach or in the clouds, several hundreds even, but got really sick when I tried eating a sand apple, just like trading live with a really profitable high Timeframe strategy I had developed based on two years and just about 200 trades. Wait, the market never did that around my strategy!? How is it now exactly when I start using it it changes ?
It hadn't changed, I just didn't know it well enough. and that and that and that... that really hurt my tummy also
All the times I worked to strike gold when I wasn't even close to bronze, and was actually walking away from the gold mine thinking I was getting closer...
Today, happily I can laugh at myself. But what a long period of wasted time and effort years ago. And we didn't have the computer power to backtest and explore like today !
Without looking at enough trades throughout enough time to develop a strategy, along with other important factors I won't get into, I wasted so much time and effort.
If I could go back in time and relive, I would minimum MINIMUM at ALL times, work with many instruments and see how they confront several hundreds or thousands occurrences of the strategy, and throughout as many years quality history is available.
No exceptions, ever.
Peace and have a wonderful Sunday everyone !
© Forex Factory