Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method
This thread is contuniation of the previous thread i created in platform tech.
Due to thread name some requests been out of our purpose. So i had to create new thread.
Explaining : You can request an idea which can return as probability. Every week i will code one winner in the Poll.
This thread not to create your strategy or indicator. This Thread only to find probabilities !!! If you ask me to code an EA for you or INDICATOR you will be BANNED From the thread and ignored ..
If you ask a question such as what is the probability of candle to close at 20 MA . Then it will be coded ! READ THIS CAREFULLY
The purpose of this thread to find probabilities
Here is next weeks two question in the poll, Please vote for which one you need to be coded. If your questions sounds like below we can code them as well. Remember 1 idea every week so be wise on your questions.
Question A :
Previous week we have created Daily Average Probability checker.
I am attaching the code and screenshots here with the explanation.
The first question was this :
The answer of this and the result or example use of this is here :
Thanks for your help
I see the min treshold but the max where ?
Whats the tresholdcounter (steps?)
And why if you can choose how many days to look it is going to check all the available days
But probability is found by all history available. Ie if you have 100 days available it will check all 100 days. You have to grab the idea first. The idea is simple. You want to find the probability of continuation and reversal after %x move happens. So you have 5 days average = 300 pip. Once %10 move happens on new day =30 pip. What is the probability it will go another %10... So at the end min treshold is the value where the look is started...
If checkdays = 5 ( Daily move average found by looking 5 days
If Min treshold is 0.10 ( we will check when candle close above %10 movement)
If max Treshold is 0.20 ( this is target. We want to see if end of day whether if this target is hit after once candle is closed above min treshold.
If move doesnt go directly to %20 but first it goes below than %10 it means we allso had a reversal before reaching max..
So example if UP %10 move happened and you have %90 probability it will reversal before touching %15. You can open sell with stop loss %5 of day movement and bet for the reversal. In other side if you have %90 continuation and %90 reversal. Once min hit you can wait that it will slide to better price and enter with daily max target as profit.
I allso mentioned counting max opposite size can give us clue for better entry. But i will leave this part private or to someone else to code.
This is just nice.
0.50 MinTreshold have %89 of reversal probability on M1 Once it happens.
It means %89 of the time for past 27 days it went lower than %50.. Without touching %75 end of the day.
This actually nice. So if you enter when %50 of day average is hit, You will be profit atleast %1 of the day average before getting stopped out. Most of the time it can be more than %1 wins. Its all about if you can find Max OPPOSITE Distance. You can calculate your TP Targets more accurate.
This comes to be spoon feeding and i dont want do it
This is my last example of how powerful is this idea.
%40 Min Treshold. %45 Max Treshold
You have %86 of the time when candle closes above %40 Before touching the %45 it went below of %40...
So... That is pretty accurate. At the end of the day you allso know it will touch %45 with high probability. So in this screenshot here its go.
This approach counts for the first Touch of the min and max tresholds of the day.
Second and third touches are not in the action
GBPNZD M5 Have %100 probability. It happened 20 Times candle closed between %50- and %55..
%100 Of the time it hit to %55 within same day.
ONLY %30 Reversal rate before hitting the target.
So next time if you see GBPNZD M5 Candle closes above %50 and below %55 , You can take your odds for small tp target and you will have %30 probability that you gonna have drawdown at candle close.
Taking the idea further. Final example
You have %91 reversal probability for the day when candle closes above %20 for the first time. %9 probability that it will go without any drawdown to %100 entry point.
Well if it made %20 up move you sell,
If it made %20 dn move you buy.
Stop loss is %100 of the day.
As it will go in profit atleast %91 of the time. Attempt to take breakeven and get winner run. If you hit atleast 2 winner runs you will recover and when that %9 probability hits you, You can still be in profit. Theorically
can you do probabiity anaysis for pivot point indicator. like what are the probability if price opens above pivot point and touching res1,res2 and res 3. also what are the probability if price opens below pivot point and touching sup1,sup2 and sup3....
also can you do statistics for reversal from those pivot levels...
thanks for sharing this indicator. it looks interesting and useful.
Your sell order would have been earlier ? (in function of what you said further ''This approach counts for the first Touch of the min and max tresholds of the day'' )
Ie if you input 0.40 to 0.50.. And if there was no bar closed above 0.40 and below 0.50... Means it must be spiked directly from 0.39 or below to 0.50+
So that is not counted. That is not counted as a touch as well. We wait for candle close.
So if prev bar was 0.20 and next bar is 0.55 we never been in treshold area to count the touch..
And the stats are valid for the current day ?
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