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Quants Jun 10, 2020 8:37am | Post# 1

Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method
 
3 Attachment(s)
This thread is contuniation of the previous thread i created in platform tech.
Due to thread name some requests been out of our purpose. So i had to create new thread.

Explaining : You can request an idea which can return as probability. Every week i will code one winner in the Poll.

This thread not to create your strategy or indicator. This Thread only to find probabilities !!! If you ask me to code an EA for you or INDICATOR you will be BANNED From the thread and ignored ..

If you ask a question such as what is the probability of candle to close at 20 MA . Then it will be coded ! READ THIS CAREFULLY
The purpose of this thread to find probabilities

Here is next weeks two question in the poll, Please vote for which one you need to be coded. If your questions sounds like below we can code them as well. Remember 1 idea every week so be wise on your questions.

Question A :
If we take in consideration user entry Alligator and pSAR settings and pSAR crosses in the same direction as Alligator is trending what is the probability that price will:

- hit SL (1R= X * ATR value) before hitting TP 2R
- hit TP 2R before SL
- hit TP 3R before SL
- hit TP 4R before SL
- hit TP 5R before SL...

Question B:
ok my question is,

Is it possible to code a statistical indicator that tells me for any given period and timeframe (of my choice), how many times in percentage terms has price closed outside or inside the Bollinger band. According to bollinger price will stay inside the bands(20,2) approx 86-88% of the time if I am not mistaken.

Would be a helpful tool to determine if price is due a breakout/reversal or consolidation.

Thanks


Previous week we have created Daily Average Probability checker.
I am attaching the code and screenshots here with the explanation.
The first question was this :

Here is my attempt
If price moved from current daily open price already 50% ADR(of 20 days for example), what are the probabilities it will continue to 75% ADR?
Please make in the tool the number of days for ADR calculation to be an input parameter so you can choose for example ADR(21 days) or ADR(31 days) etc....
The output of the tool should state also the number of samples used to calculate the probabilities.
for example:
37,9% (out of 10000 days)
that means over 10000 days where price reached from daily open 50% ADR(20) the likihood of price moving further from 50% ADR(20) to 75% ADR(20) are 37,9%

The answer of this and the result or example use of this is here :
ProbabilityDay_v6 Indicator is created
- MinTreshold and MaxTresholds and DaysToAverage as inputs.
- It will check all available data days you have in your chart automatically.
- We have found Average by looking past 5 days from each current candles Day
- Example if Average 300 Pips, If current day price moved 30 pips its counted as %10.
- MinTreshold 0.10 represents %10 same for MaxTreshold Input
- The Rule was simple. Candle have to close above MinTreshold and Below MaxTreshold. So if we input 0.10 and 0.30 we are asking. What is the probability
Once candle is closed above 0.10 and below 0.30 that it will reach to 0.30 within same day for the same direction. So THE OPP probability represents if candle closed above 0.10 and dropped below on next candles without reaching Target. If Target Reached within same day it is counted. Screenshot example is below :
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ProbabilityDay_v7.mq4
CheckBBProbability_V4.mq4

Merka Jun 10, 2020 9:27am | Post# 2

Thanks for your help

rosalieone Jun 10, 2020 10:13am | Post# 3

1 Attachment(s)
This thread is contuniation of the previous thread i created in platform tech. Due to thread name some requests been out of our purpose. So i had to create new thread. Explaining : You can request an idea which can return as probability. Every week i will code one winner in the Poll. This thread not to create your strategy or indicator. This Thread only to find probabilities !!! If you ask me to code an EA for you or INDICATOR you will be BANNED From the thread and ignored .. If you ask a question such as what is the probability of candle to close...
Sorry but i still dont understand fully (and we are not friday )
I see the min treshold but the max where ?
Whats the tresholdcounter (steps?)
And why if you can choose how many days to look it is going to check all the available days
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Quants Jun 10, 2020 11:02am | Post# 4

{quote} Sorry but i still dont understand fully (and we are not friday ) I see the min treshold but the max where ? Whats the tresholdcounter (steps?) And why if you can choose how many days to look it is going to check all the available days {image}
The input inside of the indicator for the average. If 5. You find 5 days average movement...
But probability is found by all history available. Ie if you have 100 days available it will check all 100 days. You have to grab the idea first. The idea is simple. You want to find the probability of continuation and reversal after %x move happens. So you have 5 days average = 300 pip. Once %10 move happens on new day =30 pip. What is the probability it will go another %10... So at the end min treshold is the value where the look is started...

If checkdays = 5 ( Daily move average found by looking 5 days
If Min treshold is 0.10 ( we will check when candle close above %10 movement)
If max Treshold is 0.20 ( this is target. We want to see if end of day whether if this target is hit after once candle is closed above min treshold.
If move doesnt go directly to %20 but first it goes below than %10 it means we allso had a reversal before reaching max..

So example if UP %10 move happened and you have %90 probability it will reversal before touching %15. You can open sell with stop loss %5 of day movement and bet for the reversal. In other side if you have %90 continuation and %90 reversal. Once min hit you can wait that it will slide to better price and enter with daily max target as profit.

I allso mentioned counting max opposite size can give us clue for better entry. But i will leave this part private or to someone else to code.

rosalieone Jun 10, 2020 11:09am | Post# 5

{quote} The input inside of the indicator for the average. If 5. You find 5 days average movement... But probability is found by all history available. Ie if you have 100 days available it will check all 100 days. You have to grab the idea first. The idea is simple. You want to find the probability of continuation and reversal after %x move happens. So you have 5 days average = 300 pip. Once %10 move happens on new day =30 pip. What is the probability it will go another %10... So at the end min treshold is the value whee the look is started.
Thanks and treshold counter ?

Quants Jun 10, 2020 11:20am | Post# 6

{quote} Thanks and treshold counter ?
TresholdCounter is Max treshold. I have to change name i guess. Sry will do tonight for clearence

Quants Jun 10, 2020 12:03pm | Post# 7

{quote} Thanks and treshold counter ?
Uploaded with v7 and changed names for clarification

Quants Jun 10, 2020 12:08pm | Post# 8

1 Attachment(s)
This is just nice.
0.50 MinTreshold have %89 of reversal probability on M1 Once it happens.
It means %89 of the time for past 27 days it went lower than %50.. Without touching %75 end of the day.
This actually nice. So if you enter when %50 of day average is hit, You will be profit atleast %1 of the day average before getting stopped out. Most of the time it can be more than %1 wins. Its all about if you can find Max OPPOSITE Distance. You can calculate your TP Targets more accurate.
This comes to be spoon feeding and i dont want do it
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Quants Jun 10, 2020 12:13pm | Post# 9

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This is my last example of how powerful is this idea.
%40 Min Treshold. %45 Max Treshold
You have %86 of the time when candle closes above %40 Before touching the %45 it went below of %40...

So... That is pretty accurate. At the end of the day you allso know it will touch %45 with high probability. So in this screenshot here its go.
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Quants Jun 10, 2020 12:15pm | Post# 10

This approach counts for the first Touch of the min and max tresholds of the day.
Second and third touches are not in the action

Merka Jun 10, 2020 12:50pm | Post# 11

This is my last example of how powerful is this idea. %40 Min Treshold. %45 Max Treshold You have %86 of the time when candle closes above %40 Before touching the %45 it went below of %40... So... That is pretty accurate. At the end of the day you allso know it will touch %45 with high probability. So in this screenshot here its go. {image}
I'm glad you liked this idea.
Cheers

Quants Jun 10, 2020 1:05pm | Post# 12

2 Attachment(s)
GBPNZD M5 Have %100 probability. It happened 20 Times candle closed between %50- and %55..
%100 Of the time it hit to %55 within same day.

ONLY %30 Reversal rate before hitting the target.

So next time if you see GBPNZD M5 Candle closes above %50 and below %55 , You can take your odds for small tp target and you will have %30 probability that you gonna have drawdown at candle close.

Attachment 3660663


Taking the idea further. Final example
You have %91 reversal probability for the day when candle closes above %20 for the first time. %9 probability that it will go without any drawdown to %100 entry point.

Well if it made %20 up move you sell,
If it made %20 dn move you buy.

Stop loss is %100 of the day.
As it will go in profit atleast %91 of the time. Attempt to take breakeven and get winner run. If you hit atleast 2 winner runs you will recover and when that %9 probability hits you, You can still be in profit. Theorically
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vijiragavan Jun 11, 2020 12:41am | Post# 13

can you do probabiity anaysis for pivot point indicator. like what are the probability if price opens above pivot point and touching res1,res2 and res 3. also what are the probability if price opens below pivot point and touching sup1,sup2 and sup3....

also can you do statistics for reversal from those pivot levels...

thanks for sharing this indicator. it looks interesting and useful.

Quants Jun 11, 2020 1:48am | Post# 14

can you do probabiity anaysis for pivot point indicator. like what are the probability if price opens above pivot point and touching res1,res2 and res 3. also what are the probability if price opens below pivot point and touching sup1,sup2 and sup3.... also can you do statistics for reversal from those pivot levels... thanks for sharing this indicator. it looks interesting and useful.
Sure. Next weekend lets add in the poll

rosalieone Jun 11, 2020 2:49am | Post# 15

This is just nice. 0.50 MinTreshold have %89 of reversal probability on M1 Once it happens. It means %89 of the time for past 27 days it went lower than %50.. Without touching %75 end of the day. This actually nice. So if you enter when %50 of day average is hit, You will be profit atleast %1 of the day average before getting stopped out. Most of the time it can be more than %1 wins. Its all about if you can find Max OPPOSITE Distance. You can calculate your TP Targets more accurate. This comes to be spoon feeding and i dont want do it {image}
Hi Quants,
Your sell order would have been earlier ? (in function of what you said further ''This approach counts for the first Touch of the min and max tresholds of the day'' )
Best

Quants Jun 11, 2020 4:03am | Post# 16

{quote} Hi Quants, Your sell order would have been earlier ? (in function of what you said further ''This approach counts for the first Touch of the min and max tresholds of the day'' ) Best
No, Sell is where it is. We are not counting the bars that been spiked without closing in between treshold.
Ie if you input 0.40 to 0.50.. And if there was no bar closed above 0.40 and below 0.50... Means it must be spiked directly from 0.39 or below to 0.50+
So that is not counted. That is not counted as a touch as well. We wait for candle close.


So if prev bar was 0.20 and next bar is 0.55 we never been in treshold area to count the touch..

rosalieone Jun 11, 2020 4:15am | Post# 17

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{quote} No, Sell is where it is. We are not counting the bars that been spiked without closing in between treshold. Ie if you input 0.40 to 0.50.. And if there was no bar closed above 0.40 and below 0.50... Means it must be spiked directly from 0.39 or below to 0.50+ So that is not counted. That is not counted as a touch as well. We wait for candle close. So if prev bar was 0.20 and next bar is 0.55 we never been in treshold area to count the touch..
I was meaning this
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Quants Jun 11, 2020 4:27am | Post# 18

{quote} I was meaning this {image}
Ah yes , You are right with that one Touch happener earlier.

rosalieone Jun 11, 2020 5:24am | Post# 19

{quote} Ah yes , You are right with that one Touch happener earlier.
Ok .
And the stats are valid for the current day ?

Quants Jun 11, 2020 10:00am | Post# 20

{quote} Ok . And the stats are valid for the current day ?
It can fail, but it tells you what have been happening


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