15 April 2020

2020- n° 94

In March 2020, consumer prices increased by 0.1% over one month and by 0.7% year on year Consumer price index - final results - March 2020

In March 2020, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% over a month, after a stability in the previous month. Manufactured product prices accelerated (+1.4% after +0.2%), due to the end of winter sales in February. Tobacco prices increased by 6.6%, because of a tax increase. Contrariwise, the drop in energy prices was sharper (−3.9% after −2.0%), in the wake of petroleum product prices. Services prices fell by 0.2% after +0.2% in February. Finally, food prices edged down by 0.1%, after a stability in the previous month.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices fell by 0.6% in March, after −0.1% in February.

Year on year, consumer prices sharply slowed down, to +0.7%, after +1.4% in February. The strong drop in inflation came from a sharp downturn in the prices of energy and manufactured products and a slowdown in services and tobacco prices. Food prices rose, year on year, barely more than in February.

Year on year, core inflation sharply fell in March: +0.7% after +1.3% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 0.1% over a month, after a stability in February; year on year, it strongly slowed down, to +0.8%, after +1.6% in the previous month.

Year on year, energy prices fell back by 4.0% in March, after +1.1% in February. It has been their sharper drop since May 2016. The drop in petroleum product prices was very much pronounced, to −8.8% year on year, after −0.5% in February: over a month, they collapsed by 6.5% after −4.3% in the previous month, due to the sharp drop in Brent prices since the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic.

The change in gas prices was similar: year on year, they dropped by 12.1%, after −9.4% in February. Contrariwise, electricity prices rose by 9.7% year on year, as in the previous month.

Year on year, manufactured product prices fell back by 0.4%, after a one-time rebound to +0.3% in the previous month, due to the shorter duration of winter sales. Clothing and footwear prices slowed down, to +0.1% year on year after +2.1% in February. The prices of “other manufactured products” dropped by 0.1%, after +0.5% in February. New motor car prices slowed down (+1.0% year on year after +2.0%), due to a lot of special offers over the month. The prices of household appliances (−1.9 % year on year −1.1 %) dropped more than in the previous month. Among the well-sold products since the beginning of the health crisis, the prices of cleaning products dropped more (−1.7 % year on year, after −1.1 % in February) and those of the articles for personal hygiene, wellness and beauty products dropped a little less (−0.5% after −0.6%). The prices of other stationery and drawing materials slowed down to +0.7% after +0.9% whereas those of paper products gathered pace to +0.4%, after a stability in February.

Finally, the drop in health product prices was barely accentuated (−2.4% year on year after −2.3%).

Year on year, service prices sharply slowed down in March: +1.1% after +1.4%. Strongly affected by the lockdown measures, transport services prices sharply fell back (−1.0% year on year after +1.8%). Airfares dropped by 4.4% year on year after +3.8% in February: over a month, the fall, even seasonally in March, was sharply more pronounced than in the previous year. The prices of transport by train dropped more (−4.2% year on year after −3.5%). The prices of “other services” slowed down to +1.5% year on year, after +1.9%, in the wake of those of accommodation services (+1.6% after +3.2%), package holidays (+5.2% year on year after +7.0%) and insurances (+1.2% after +2.5%). The rise in communication service prices was lesser too (+2.0% after +2.2%). The prices of housing-related services were barely more dynamic (+0.5% after +0.4%).

Health service prices were rose by 0.3% year on year, after a stability in the previous month.

In March 2020, food prices rose by 1.9% year on year, after +1.8% in February. Those of fresh produces were sharply more dynamic than in the previous month (+4.7% year on year after +3.3%), in the wake of those of fresh vegetables (+4.8% after +2.8%) and fresh fruits (+5.1% after +3.4%). Excluding fresh produces, food prices slowed down again (+1.4% year on year after +1.5%), in particular those of alcoholic beverages (+1.3% after +1.9%). Among the well-sold products since the beginning of the health crisis, the prices of pasta products and couscous dropped in March (−0.6% after +0.2%) whereas those of frozen fish slowed down (+2.7% after +3.2%), as those of other preserved or processed fish and seafood-based preparations (+0.7% after +0.9%), those of milk, cheese and eggs (+1.0% after +1.3%) and of oils and fats (+0.4% after +0.6%). The prices of frozen vegetables accelerated (+1.4% after +0.9%), as those of dried vegetables, other preserved or processed vegetables (+1.6% after +1.3%) and those of other tubers (+0.6% after +0.5%). The prices of rice (−0.1% after −0.9%) and those of flours and other cereals (−0.5% after −0.6%) dropped less and sugar prices fell by 0.9% year on year, as in February.

Compared with the provisional estimates published on March 31, 2020, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and in the HICP were up by 0.1points.