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Special Reports

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Could Monday’s intervention turn the tide for the yen?

Japan allegedly intervened for the first time in six months Most recent interventions did not produce concrete results A more hawkish BoJ is probably needed for a sustained yen rally Japan has a long history of market interventions, to weaken or prop up its currency. Several times since the 1990s, Japan, unilaterally or with help from its main trading partners, tried to turn the tide for the yen.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Besides yen pairs, neutral volatility across the board ahead of Fed and NFP – Volatility Watch

Japan’s intervention spurs volatility in yen pairs, usual action elsewhere in FX market Commodities enjoy lower volatility as geopolitical tensions subside Equities at neutral volatility levels during earnings season, Bitcoin volatility picks up Volatility in yen crosses has exploded on the back of a suspected Japanese intervention. Moreover, apart from dollar/yen, other dollar pairs are trading in the middle of their volatility range ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday and
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Slightly lower volatility across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Lower volatility is on the cards for the FX market Gold to enjoy lower volatility; oil probably too quiet considering geopolitics Equities volatility remains elevated, especially in JP225 index Volatility in EUR/USD has eased up a bit but remains high amidst continued rhetoric for an ECB rate cut in June. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in maintaining volatility high in the remaining currencies, including the yen and pound crosses, with the former facin
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

What do the smaller US surveys say about the US economy?

Fed is still on the sidelines as the US economy remains strong Smaller US business surveys point to a weaker manufacturing sector But the services sector could continue to surprise on the upside US dollar is benefitting for the curtailed Fed rate cut expectations Stickier inflation, a relatively healthy labour market and a barrage of stronger US economic data have forced the market to reconsider its aggressive Fed expectations and to price in only two rate cuts for 2024. Despi
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Market continues to price in a plethora of rate cuts for 2024

Market is still in monetary easing mode despite fewer rate cuts priced in across the board Divergent cut expectations for the Fed and the ECB, reflecting economic conditions The ECB and the BoC are seen cutting in July; the RBA might not cut rates this year BoJ is seen hiking again during 2024 The market is digesting both the latest geopolitical developments and the recent rally in oil prices as the countdown to the May 1 Fed meeting has begun.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

What’s next for markets amid Israel-Iran tensions?

Iran launches strikes against Israel, but markets don’t panic  Traders seem hopeful this won’t escalate into full-blown war How Israel responds will be crucial for risky assets and oil prices   Political theater?  Tensions in the Middle East reached boiling point over the weekend after Iran launched drone and missile strikes against Israel, in retaliation to an Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic consulate in Syria earlier this month.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Geopolitical developments and stronger US data push volatility to new highs across the board – Volatility Watch

Volatility remains extremely high across the FX spectrum Commodities volatility reaches new highs; Bitcoin poised for smaller moves Equities volatility is off the charts led by the S&P 500 and DAX 40 indices Volatility in EUR/USD remains very high as the pair recorded a decent weekly drop following the stronger US CPI data. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in pushing volatility higher in the remaining currencies, including the yen crosses, with the market n
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

What’s behind the US economy’s resilience?

US economy is still sizzling, outperforming other regions Several factors behind this strength, such as heavy public spending  For US dollar to enjoy a massive rally, it may also need risk aversion    Why is the US economy still so strong?  One of the most striking developments over the past year has been the extraordinary resilience of the US economy, despite the highest interest rates in a generation.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Is there a possibility of no Fed rate cuts this year?

A summer rate cut by the Fed hangs in the balance amid persistent inflation Rate cut bets have been scaled back from more than six to around two But limited fallout on Wall Street; can the risk rally survive no rate cuts? Waiting for the elusive rate cut Ever since the Fed signalled it was done hiking rates in November last year, the focus swiftly turned to rate cuts, with the timing and scope of policy easing consuming investors’ attention.
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Why is gold defying gravity?

Gold stays in rally mode, even when dollar and yields rise Central banks and geopolitics among the main drivers Chinese demand and inflation hedging add extra support Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s gold! Gold entered a flying mode at the beginning of March, surpassing its previous record high of $2,135 hit on March 7. The metal consolidated only for a while thereafter before rallying again during the last days of the month to continue conquering uncharted territory.
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Why does the 10-year US yield remain so high?

The 10-year US yield is a key determinant of FX moves It tends to drop when the Fed prepares to cut its interest rates Despite market expectations about the Fed, the 10-year US yield remains high A stock market correction could be a catalyst for a sizeable drop in US yields The 10-year US yield is the barometer of the US economy.
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XM Research - 1 month ago

A trading playbook on Japanese FX intervention

Yen falls 7% this year to hit lowest levels in three decades Japanese authorities threaten to intervene again to defend it How likely is intervention, and what are the steps to get there?  Yen tanks, again The Japanese yen absorbed heavy damage this year, briefly falling to a 34-year low against the US dollar. Selling pressures persisted even after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates out of negative territory, leading authorities in Tokyo to threaten another round of FX inter
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Exploring trends and investment opportunities in thematic indices

Thematic indices have seen a rise in popularity in recent years But what are they and what is their purpose as an investment tool? What thematic indices does XM offer? Introducing thematic indices Thematic indices are designed to capture trends arising from structural shifts within the technological, geopolitical and macroeconomic spheres that are often disruptive by nature.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Does the Easter break affect markets?

Oil prices tends to rally before and after Easter Sunday Euro/dollar’s performance becomes clearer when drilling down the data Patterns emerge when focusing only on Easter Sunday occurring in March Most participants who trade based on seasonal patterns, enjoy combining the market’s performance with certain events like the Christmas and Easter breaks.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

How the markets could react to the Fed meeting

Fed meeting coming up next; the market is in waiting mode The 10-year US Treasury yield usually reacts first to Fed decisions Gold and EURUSD could benefit from lower US yields The much talked about Fed meeting is taking place tonight at 18.00 GMT with the usual press conference held 30 minutes later. There is a growing debate about the outcome of the meeting, the overall rhetoric by Chairman Powell and the famous dot plot.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Why are Gold and Bitcoin hitting new records together?

Gold and Bitcoin cruise to new all-time highs simultaneously However, there are different drivers behind these rallies Overall, both assets might have more scope to run higher Gold and bitcoin go through the roof It’s pretty rare to see gold and bitcoin setting new record highs at the same time. Gold is considered the ultimate safe haven asset, while bitcoin is often viewed as one of the riskiest and most speculative plays.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Dissecting the ECB Monetary policy decisions communiqué

The monetary policy decisions statement is released at 13:15 GMT President Lagarde et al could signal a policy shift in this communiqué The ECB staff projections could also hold the key to a rate cut soon The scheduled press conference takes place 30 minutes later Complementing the detailed ECB preview, this report focuses on the first communication made by the European Central Bank after the completion of each rate setting meeting.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Are there more AI growth opportunities to be priced into the markets?

Nvidia skyrockets and drives the S&P 500 to new records Demand for chips continues to surge, AI enters consumers’ life There maybe more AI growth opportunities to be priced in But downside risks on high valuations and geopolitics do exist Nvidia beats already optimistic estimates Just last week, the investor favorite Nvidia beat out Amazon and Alphabet to take the third place as the most valuable company in the US by market capitalization, and although the chipmaker’s
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Performance in past “Fed pause” intervals supports the current S&P 500 rally

A performance comparison of key assets in the previous Fed pause periods The S&P 500 index could go higher if history repeats itself The US 10-year yield is expected to drop when the Fed decides to signal rate cuts A special report was published last year analysing the performance of key market assets during the three occasions since 2000 – in 2000-01, 2006-07 and 2018-19 respectively – when the Fed paused after a rate hiking cycle.
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XM Research - 3 months ago

German economic troubles could keep the euro heavy

Eurozone economy narrowly avoided a recession last year Yet situation could get worse as Germany tightens spending Can the euro ignore deteriorating economic fundamentals?      No recession, but no growth either The euro area miraculously dodged a recession last year, even despite inflation eating into people’s real incomes and high interest rates dampening demand.
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