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  • Guggenheim’s Minerd Sees 10%-20% Chance of Global Depression

    From bnnbloomberg.ca

    The chances of a global depression are growing as the coronavirus spreads and forces economic contraction, according to Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners. “This thing could spiral into something akin to a global depression,” Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Monday. “That risk is not remote at this point. I would say we have at least a 10% or 20% chance of that.” Minerd has warned for weeks that markets and the broader economy face shocks from the spreading coronavirus. Stocks plunged, credit spreads widened and volatility soared Monday following the Federal ... (full story)

Note Scott Minerd's words "I would say we have at least a 10% or 20% chance of that."
Today is 2020-03-16.
I'd like to see his opinion in ... calculating in memory ... 4-6 weeks.
I see that in one year we will have new all time highs.
This is no structural crisis and corona will not last forever.
Wait for 3-4 weeks and you will see infections will go back
and end of the year there will be vaccine available.
There is enough money in the market that wants to be invested.
There is no end to the people who has a thought as to where this end
Quoting c0ldsun
I see that in one year we will have new all time highs. This is no structural crisis and corona will not last forever. Wait for 3-4 weeks and you will see infections will go back and end of the year there will be vaccine available. There is enough money in the market that wants to be invested.
That money will invest only at a favorable time. Right now its like unplugging the fridge, if you plug it in within a reasonable amount of time only a few things will go bad. If its left for too long then a lot more will go bad, which will cause structural damage. People loose confidence a lot quicker then they gain it.

After a prolonged time, more people get financially hurt. When they come back to work, they are not buying cars on their first cheque.
Quoting JustBreathe
{quote}... When they come back to work, they are not buying cars on their first cheque.
As I said, "people under quarantine don't buy houses".
BTW. do we have a vaccine for HIV??? ...some 30-40 years passed...

Vaccine as a HOLY GRAIL for markets, bingo!

Good health to everyone!
THREE WEEKS AWAY FROM A VACCINE:

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101
24 grams of good old vitamin C and stand back!
grist for the mill
How come we haven't a vaccine for SARS yet then...

Also I like the analogy of a fridge being unplugged for global depression, above. Nice one. I'm sure you have lots of amazing thoughts in your head.
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  • Posted: Mar 16, 2020 5:49pm
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 8  /  Views: 10,511