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  • It’s ‘unreal’ in Italy as coronavirus cases top 3,800; France infections rise sharply

    From cnbc.com

    European countries are battling with the coronavirus as the number of infected people keeps growing, while the death toll in Italy —the region’s epicenter —rose dramatically Thursday. Italy’s Civil Protection Agency reported an additional 41 deaths from coronavirus late Thursday, taking the total to 148. More than 3,800 people have been infected in Europe’s worst-hit country, which announced 7.5 billion euros ($8.40 billion) in aid Thursday – twice as much as originally planned – to tackle the outbreak. “The atmosphere is a bit unreal because it’s something in the middle of going back to ... (full story)

& Crude Fall after the release. Feel for those struggling !
240 died in Italy from seasonal flu this season(until january 2020)...why isn't that a thing for the media? Too boring?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
oil holders? silience
Invest in alarm clocks
is it possible for the oil to bounce on the 0$ bar?
Invest in alarm clocks
Its unreal how much panic media creates
Quoting Tony112
oil holders? silience
Suppose oil will bounce next week after those 80% longs give up
Quoting Tony112
is it possible for the oil to bounce on the 0$ bar?
When something looks suspiciously weak on friday, buy...when it seems too strong, sell. Easy weekend recipe.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
there no media in basic statistics ,in fact when it came to Italy I thought thats the one to watch for accurate info
some people too silly ,the Trump effect is out of control not media
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting OnlineAddict
240 died in Italy from seasonal flu this season(until january 2020)
What if many of these deaths were incorrectly marked as flu related?
Remember that until recently there were no tests being done for the Corona virus.
The stats will look much different then and perhaps the % of death rates due to the CV is much lower than we think it is.
Have a nice day
useless analysts ,no research whatsoever ,your the nutters making stuff up
your not serious in this game at all is what it all means
no to just reading media or trusting governments outright !
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
its not flu ,its low in the lung not high you don't get mucus out your nose for instance
can't be mistaken like that ,besides flu is not anywhere near infectious or deadly
I mean no where near

Quoting billv
{quote} What if many of these deaths were incorrectly marked as flu related? Remember that until recently there were no tests being done for the Corona virus. The stats will look much different then and perhaps the % of death rates due to the CV is much lower than we think it is.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
you guys ,crack me up
no work being done by yourself at all, outright guesswork on something with a lot of information on

the beauty of this story is you're looking at the same information pretty much as everyone -realtime.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting billv
{quote} What if many of these deaths were incorrectly marked as flu related? Remember that until recently there were no tests being done for the Corona virus. The stats will look much different then and perhaps the % of death rates due to the CV is much lower than we think it is.
Those were stats until early january only and they said its every similar every year, for example last year, during the same time there were 258 flu deaths, I think. So that was not corona yet, too early for that.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Just got back off the phone with a friend who lives in Tuscany. She said the panic is much worse than the virus itself. The average age of the first 197 deaths is 81 years old. So far 5900 people recovered from corona and 4000 still in recovery.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Quoting OnlineAddict
Just got back off the phone with a friend who lives in Tuscany. She said the panic is much worse than the virus itself. The average age of the first 197 deaths is 81 years old. So far 5900 people recovered from corona and 4000 still in recovery.
Where from are you getting your numbers?
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Where from are you getting your numbers?
From her, what she told me the news there were reporting.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Where from are you getting your numbers?
He making it up as he goes along, total cases in Italy are 4,636 so of that 4,636 he claims 5,900 recovered, typical OnlineAddict stuff.
Quoting barkie
{quote} He making it up as he goes along, total cases in Italy are 4,636 so of that 4,636 he claims 5,900 recovered, typical OnlineAddict stuff.
You better save up money for our pound bet, I didn't forget.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Maybe Italians know more about their own country as the Dutch? Thought about that?
Maybe WHO and Johns Hopkins know more than your friend? Thought about that?
Quoting OnlineAddict
Just got back off the phone with a friend who lives in Tuscany. She said the panic is much worse than the virus itself. The average age of the first 197 deaths is 81 years old. So far 5900 people recovered from corona and 4000 still in recovery.
Ok, this was an error, asked her again if the numbers are really twice as big as officially reported and no, 5900 was a typo, its 590 recovered. So the numbers match the official data.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} You better save up money for our pound bet, I didn't forget.

LOL

You again???

Remember!?
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Yes, there will be 1.45,

I never said a 1500 pip move would come soon, I am not trading demo like you.

It may take months or a year, I don't really care,
I will keep buying the dips and...
Blaaaa...
Lies too..... +1:
LOL

WHEN 1.45 ???

Great wise Onlinus Longus!!!
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Stocks red...
FED cut...

Paper Trash everywhere....
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Sooo???
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Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Bitcoin it's a fkn sham, people lose their real money for a worthless computer code
Happened before with tulip bulbs but this one is little more sophisticated ...but still worthless
Paid influencers like this Nox-Koko-Pongo-Mumbo-Gumbo are spreading toxic nonsense everywhere
Member
Typical ,you want to ring a mate for statistics while Italy goes through the roof.
Your a trader you understand compounding,
if authorities want to guess theres double infected then its much more infectious as the current has to be R0 3-4 minimum
You really believe it can kill one person ,critical 2 in 10 then others can have it and not know.
Flu infects 9 when r0 4 infects 262k in the same period
100k infected today in about 10 weeks, with extreme containment ,and tracing .

Don't be surprised to see the headlines going forward .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51777049

Quoting OnlineAddict
Just got back off the phone with a friend who lives in Tuscany. She said the panic is much worse than the virus itself. The average age of the first 197 deaths is 81 years old. So far 5900 people recovered from corona and 4000 still in recovery.
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
The death rate is wrong reported by the BBC.
that's what it is if you divide death by case .its the wrong formula
the question is how long does take to kill {and how many actually infected, can only go on what we know}
then divide those case back in time by death today.= approx 10%

They use tooth picks to push the elevator button in china.
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it's healthy to be sceptical of media ,but the numbers are there for all to see.
also a government has 2 jobs .It is warn everyone but avoid panic which could be worse than the virus.
UK gov underplay it imo, but handle it well on panic front.
US government not far off a joke .

No way can they contain and trace, this is about delay.
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Quoting Bones
it's healthy to be sceptical of media ,but the numbers are there for all to see. also a government has 2 jobs .It is warn everyone but avoid panic which could be worse than the virus. UK gov underplay it imo, but handle it well on panic front. US government not far off a joke . No way can they contain and trace, this is about delay.
Well, what makes me wonder...why Italy? Thousands of people from the Hubei province, who left before the quarantine, spread across the globe. Either locals, tourists going back home or others. Maybe tens of thousands. They surely spread over most countries in the world. Big multicultural cities like London...you would guess have the biggest problems...and yet, a small province in Italy, with some of the smallest diversity, has the biggest problem out of all Europe. It just doesn't make any sense to me, I don't see the logic there.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
yea ,I don't know ,all I can do is look at the numbers
I already provided information on two strains ,but there are many other factors to consider
The R0 is something that can change over time on many factors.

Of the 5k in Italy theres half been to hospital ,and thats potentially very hard to manage.

Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Well, what makes me wonder...why Italy? Thousands of people from the Hubei province, who left before the quarantine, spread across the globe. Either locals, tourists going back home or others. Maybe more tens of thousands. They surely spread over most countries in the world. Big multicultural cities like London...you would guess have the biggest problems...and yet, a small province in Italy has the biggest problem out of all Europe. It just doesn't make any sense to me, I don't see the logic there.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
yea ,I don't know ,all I can do is look at the numbers I already provided information on two strains ,but there are many other factors to consider The R0 is something that can change over time on many factors. {quote}
Well, if you figure it out, let me know, because it blows my mind how a place like that is suffering the most. And supposedly one person coming back from China started it all. In a location where most people live in houses, apart from each other...unlike in big cities where people live like cattle, tens of thousands in one block, impossible to avoid one another.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Many traders here I think ask the wrong questions
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} it blows my mind how a place like that is suffering the most. And supposedly one person coming back from China started it all. In a location where most people live in houses, apart from each other...unlike in big cities where people live like cattle, tens of thousands in one block, impossible to avoid one another.
Yes it doesn't make much sense but there must be a connection, tourism is a major 1 and that region is very popular for tourists.

Bear in mind that the Chinese have got management licenses for the ports of Trieste and Genoa so many Chinese officials and employees would have been there.
Milan also does a lot of manufacturing and they would have contact with China because a lot of parts would come from there.

But cruise liners are also a good way to spread the infections, many cruise liners operate out of Genoa. So many people would fly to Milan and catch the train to Genoa for their boat cruise and there are bus tours from there to many other places in Italy.

In addition to this, those cruise liners employ a lot of seasonal staff, who rotate every few months and who primarily come from Asia.
Have a nice day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EQnqcIoCmY
Quoting billv
{quote} Yes it doesn't make much sense but there must be a connection, tourism is a major 1 and that region is very popular for tourists. Bear in mind that the Chinese have got management licenses for the ports of Trieste and Genoa so many Chinese officials and employees would have been there. Milan also does a lot of manufacturing and they would have contact with China because a lot of parts would come from there. But cruise liners are also a good way to spread the infections, many cruise liners operate out of Genoa. So many people would fly to...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Inserted Video

Interview with a German Virologist, he talks about the viruses we experience every year (including Corona)and shows facts.
Worth watching for a different opinion.
You can turn down the sound and read the text.
Have a nice day
he's a nutter like all fake news characters
last time I posted in this thread there were 5k infections in Italy ,now 53k
the hospitals are overrun
I'm thinking you're determined with the media hype thoughts on what's happening to find that nutter then post it today.

Quoting billv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo Interview with a German Virologist, he talks about the viruses we experience every year (including Corona)and shows facts. Worth watching for a different opinion. You can turn down the sound and read the text.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
he's a nutter like all fake news characters last time I posted in this thread there were 5k infections in Italy ,now 53k the hospitals are overrun {quote}
I don't know that he is a nutter, he sounds very sensible to me.

Quoting Bones
I'm thinking you're determined with the media hype thoughts on what's happening to find that nutter then post it today. {quote}
No, I'm not looking for things to post.
I just came across it and found it interesting.
It all made sense to me, I have no opinion if these deaths are 100% related to the virus because I don't know but the death numbers seem unusually high compared to China and South Korea

so I'm thinking that it is either a different strain or the testing in Italy is done at a different stage and deaths of terminally ill patients who simply tested +ve are all blamed on the virus.
Have a nice day
It's not sensible because of the available informantion, well before he made that interview.
Theres no mistake this is very a specific disease, China information suppression is a major factor to consider why everywhere will need lockdown to curtail

Quoting billv
{quote} I don't know that he is a nutter, he sounds very sensible to me. {quote} No, I'm not looking for things to post. I just came across it and found it interesting. It all made sense to me, I have no opinion if these deaths are 100% related to the virus because I don't know but the death numbers seem unusually high compared to China and South Korea so I'm thinking that it is either a different strain or the testing in Italy is done at a different stage and deaths of terminally ill patients who simply tested +ve are all blamed on the virus.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Im not allowed to state the facts and forecast apparently ,breach of some kind
I might add the Uk has also made stupid mistakes that will be costly
They kicked it off much more serious considerably earlier than US, but their answers was to try herd amenity etc were way out-sack our lead medial adviser
even up to now they not do testing right, not even releasing where people are
This is why their on the back foot, with complete change of mind daily

Not closing schools for example,
people kept their kids off well before the announcement -more every day before the end of that week .
We made our own judgement that policy is just wrong in this circumstance they had to close them.
Don't try to second guess fatigue when there's a killer virus on the loose.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
China information suppression is a major factor to consider why everywhere will need lockdown to curtail
Ok lockdown seems sensible for now, let's see what happens in a couple of weeks.
Since you mentioned the UK, and herd immunity, I've read that the pandemic we had in 1918 was targeting people aged 18 to 45 and the medical experts are suspecting that the main reason for the virus not touching the older population was their earlier exposure to a similar virus strain.

Therefore, herd immunity is not necessarily a bad strategy if your hospital system can handle the number of serious cases but it doesn't look like any health system is prepared for the infection numbers we are seeing at the moment.

Even if most cases are not serious, people's attendance in the hospitals is overwhelming the system and also results in shortage of protective masks and sanitizers and therefore puts health workers at risk.
Have a nice day
Quoting Bones
last time I posted in this thread there were 5k infections in Italy ,now 53k the hospitals are overrun
I just watched the news, there were even higher death numbers today.
I wonder if the increasing numbers are due to the hospitals being overrun and not having enough equipment for all the cases.
I hope other countries are learning something from the Italian experience.
Have a nice day
Herd amenity is a terrible idea and I can tell you why
herd amenity is linked to how infectious the thing is which has to be between R0 3-4 maybe higher.
Thats very infectious you can look at the chart above how much moving up the R0 changes things.
So with R0 4 you need between 70-85% of population to get it to work.

Also they don't know at all if next year or even within months that the virus won't change so the immunity is no good for a new strain.
The more this spreads the higher chance the virus has to evolve.It's random you don't know what next at all, only it won't evolve out of the human now.

No other country ever suggested the high risk ,roll the dice idea.

I don't argue at all the virus in Italy could be more deadly somehow ,in fact I posted a paper already theres at least 2 strains at this time.

Lets be clear the series illness to hospital is about 20% ,thats what scares governments.
No health care could manage .Its a difficult disease to manage due to being so infectious.
Medical staff are putting their life on the line treating it.

Theres lots of things we do know and can project even from a month ago, but these parameters can change over time as conditions change .Maybe weather as an example but thats also not known.

https://www.khanacademy.org/science/...ccine-coverage

Quoting billv
{quote} Ok lockdown seems sensible for now, let's see what happens in a couple of weeks. Since you mentioned the UK, and herd immunity, I've read that the pandemic we had in 1918 was targeting people aged 18 to 45 and the medical experts are suspecting that the main reason for the virus not touching the older population was their earlier exposure to a similar virus strain. Therefore, herd immunity is not necessarily a bad strategy if your hospital system can handle the number of serious cases but it doesn't look like any health system is prepared...
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Yea they are, the difference here is doctors are warning the world unlike China.
We can see the problems on the ground how bad it is to deal with.

Quoting billv
{quote} I just watched the news, there were even higher death numbers today. I wonder if the increasing numbers are due to the hospitals being overrun and not having enough equipment for all the cases. I hope other countries are learning something from the Italian experience.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
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  • Posted: Mar 6, 2020 2:15pm
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    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 43  /  Views: 17,264