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Australian Dollar Could Fall Sharply if RBA QE Becomes 'Live'
The Australian Dollar is like all other assets dominated by US-China trade deal headlines, but this week a domestic issue likely to loom larger crept in even as those headlines hogged the limelight, one that traders will have to keep a very close eye on. Monetary policy is the issue or, rather, its future conduct. The key Official Cash Rate is now at 0.75%, a record low, having been cut consistently since 2011. For all that stimulus results have been mixed. Employment growth has been impressive and durable, but that may now be waning. The inflation picture is much more worrying with annualized growth below the RBAs ... (full story)
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- From think.ing.com|Dec 2, 2019
It took about 5 seconds this morning, maybe ten, to register that today's note was basically going to write itself. The home page of my go-to newspaper, the Financial Times, runs ...
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- From reuters.com|Dec 2, 2019|2 comments
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- From rba.gov.au|Dec 2, 2019|9 comments
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent. The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. While the risks are still tilted to the downside, some of these risks have lessened recently. The US–China trade and technology disputes continue to affect international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy while continuing to address risks in the financial system. Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks have eased monetary policy over recent months in response to the downside risks and subdued inflation. Expectations of further monetary easing have generally been scaled back. Financial market sentiment has continued to improve and long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at the lower end of its range over recent times. After a soft patch in the second half of last year, the Australian economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point. The central scenario is for growth to pick up gradually to around 3 per cent in 2021. The low l tweet at 10:31pm: RBA: Given these effects of lower interest rates and the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy, the Board decided to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting while it continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market. https://t.co/LNb4TuT5Ci tweet at 10:34pm: RBA: SAYS NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION HAS WEAKENED -- SAYS INFLATION TO PICK UP ONLY GRADUALLY --GLOBAL EXPECTATIONS OF FURTHER MONETARY EASING HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SCALED BACK tweet at 10:35pm: RBA: LOW RATES, TAX CUTS, INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING, UPSWING IN HOUSING PRICES AND A BRIGHTER RESOURCE SECTOR OUTLOOK SHOULD ALL SUPPORT GROWTH. tweet at 10:34pm: #RBA : - Reasonable to expect rates to remain low for an extended period - Prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed - Inflation to be close to 2% in 2020 & 2021 - Rates have put downward pressure on the exchange rate #AUD
- From mof.go.jp|Dec 2, 2019
table tweet at 10:41pm: JAPAN 10-YEAR NOTE SALE DRAWS LOWEST BID/COVER SINCE AUG. 2016 That 25tn stimulus is about to be revised lower
- From @globaltimesnews|Dec 2, 2019|5 comments
tweet at 10:40pm: #环球时报Editorial: The measures announced on Monday are mild, as China has exercised restraint so far, but it doesn’t mean Beijing won't hit back with harsher measures, if necessary. #HongKong https://t.co/cyYEHlKH0k https://t.co/Q4pKOY0VRR
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- Posted: Dec 2, 2019 9:59pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,520
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