14 November 2019

2019- n° 293

In October 2019, consumer prices were stable over one month and rose by 0.8% year on year Consumer price index - final results - October 2019

In October 2019, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was stable over a month, after a 0.3% downturn in September. This stability resulted from a little increase in manufactured product prices (+0.3% after +1.5%), offset by a drop in services prices (−0.1% after −1.3%) and in food prices (−0.4% after −0.5%). Energy prices were stable over a month, after a 0.3% rise in the previous month. Finally, tobacco prices were unchanged over a month.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices were stable over a month, as in September.

Year on year, consumer prices slowed down for the fourth consecutive month: +0.8% in October after +0.9% in September. This slight fall in inflation came from a downturn in energy prices and a slowdown in food prices, partly offset by a lesser drop in those of manufactured products. Finally, services inflation was stable.

Year on year, core inflation increased in October: +1.0% after +0.9% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell over a month anew (−0.1% after −0.4% in September); year on year, it rose by 0.9%, after +1.1% in the previous month.

Year on year, energy prices fell back in October for the first time since September 2016: −1.6% after +0,2%. The drop in the prices of petroleum products was accentuated in October (−4.5% year on year after −2.6%): over a month, their rise (+0.6%) was less marked than that in October 2018 (+2.6%). Gas prices fell also more than in the previous month (−7.8% year on year after −3.4%).

In October 2019, food prices sharply slowed down, as in September: +1.8% year on year, after +2.1% in September and +3.1% in August. Those of fresh products edged down (−0.1% year on year after +2.0%), in the wake of the prices of fresh vegetables (−3.7% after +2.6%), whereas those of fresh fruits recovered (+0.7% after −1.5%). Excluding fresh products, food prices rose at the same pace as in the previous month (+2.1% year on year).

Year on year, manufactured product prices dropped less sharply in October than in September: −0.5%, after −0.7%. This attenuated fall came from a rebound in clothing and footwear prices (+0.2% after −1.2%) whereas those of “other manufactured products” fell by 0.1% year on year, as in the previous month. Furniture prices recovered (+0.8% year on year after −0.4%) and the drop in household appliances prices was accentuated (−1.5% after −1.2%). Finally, health product prices dropped by 3.0% year on year, as in the previous month.

Year on year, services prices rose by 1.2%, as in September. The prices of transport services gathered pace, to +1.6% year on year after a slowdown in September (+0.8%), in the wake of airfares (+3.3% after +0.8%). Contrariwise, the prices of “other services” (+1.6% after +1.7%) and of housing-related services (+0.7% after +0.8%) slightly slowed down. Health services prices dropped by 0.2% year on year, after −0.3% in September. Finally, the prices of communication services rose year on year at the same pace as in the previous month (+0.9%).

Compared with the provisional estimates published on October 31, 2019, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI were up by 0.1 points, those in the HICP were confirmed.