As Boris Delivers A Brexit Deal Sterling Soars Then Slumps

Questions on the Irish border have not yet been completed in Ireland.

MPs will really feel the heat on Saturday as we can expect the gap to be much, much smaller than in previous votes bringing the full spotlight on individual MPs who vote against what is a final resolution of a destructive impasse within the UK. There is no love lost between many Labour MPs and their leader who must now be even more marginalised with a Yes vote probability. Even the SNP MPs will need to heed those electorates which supported Brexit in Scotland. Such is the scale of the larger parties that the DUP, with only 10 plus friends, may be swamped by the swing this time.

Is this a safe bet for traders? Of course not. Is it a juicy temptation? Of course, Yes. Previous close achievements took the market above 1.40 USD (just over a year ago) and 1.50 is not unreasonable given the weight of money sidelined. So 10% to 15% potential upside and clearly similar downside with No Deal Brexit or worse.

For all his early posturing, I doubt very much Boris will get what he wants.
NEITHER EU or UK actually want a No Deal, so it's unrealistic to expect that outcome.

EU are unlikely to accept/make a deal that it thinks the UK parliament will accept (For the obvious reason the UK parliament will only accept a UK friendly deal).

This looks like leading to yet another extension, and another and another etc...until the whole thing becomes ridiculous and the UK are left with no option but to stay.

Even before the referendum result, I stated to those in my personal network that the establishment would never let Brexit actually happen. Any stage in proceedings since the result which suggested that to be wrong has been a surprise, starting early on with UK Parliament actually voting to accept the result.

The polarised nature of Remain/Brexit makes it very difficult for compromise and most MP's still find more reason to dislike ANY deal than to support it. I'll be gob-smacked if Saturday will be any different. Expect the next period of fog and fudge.

Interesting angle on traders' outlook: the vote happens when the official markets are closed.

I will close out my trades this evening, you never know.. ;-)

All Traders need to be aware of the potential for these markets to gap significantly at open and particularly for Retail Brokers to 'game' their spreads...

Boris has done really well and ordinary people respect that. If MPs cannot read the mood of the people then they are destined to suffer individually and as groups at the polls. There have been 45 years with UK in the EU but no majority for staying there was observed. Time to try something new. This is it. Put some money on it but you could lose the lot.