(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s central bank chief Philip Lowe reiterated that his economy is at a “gentle turning point” and gave little indication that an interest-rate cut was in the immediate offing, potentially disappointing economists expecting one within days.

“At our board meeting next week, we will again take stock of the evidence,” the Reserve Bank governor said in the text of a speech Tuesday in Armidale, a regional city in northern New South Wales. “Further monetary easing may well be required. While we are at a gentle turning point and expect growth to pick up, the strength and durability of this pick-up remains to be seen.”

Lowe eased in June and July to 1% and reaffirmed -- as he did again Tuesday -- that an extended period of low rates was on the cards, as ongoing uncertainty abroad and weak household spending at home drag on the economy. The governor noted that over the past year there has been “no growth at all in consumption per person,” a result he described as unusual given hiring has remained strong.

The Australian dollar rose on Lowe’s comments, buying 68.05 U.S. cents at 8:13 p.m. in Sydney, compared with 67.85 cents before their release.

In predicting an upturn in the economy, the RBA chief noted that GDP growth over the first half of this year was stronger than in the second half of 2018 and said the RBA is expecting “a further modest pick-up” in the quarters ahead.

That’s based on his frequently mentioned combination of tailwinds: rate cuts and tax refunds, a weaker currency, and infrastructure and mining investment. Lowe estimates that the government’s cash rebate will boost aggregate household income by 0.6% this year, adding that past experience suggests that around half of the tax refunds will be spent.

In addition, there hasn’t been “the same spike in the measure of policy uncertainty in Australia” seen in the world economy, he said. “There has, however, been some softening in measures of business conditions.”

Reluctant Cutter

The RBA’s back-to-back rate cuts have already begun to show up in a strengthening Sydney and Melbourne property market, but are likely to take longer to flow through the economy, perhaps explaining the reluctance to resume easing so soon.

Still, Lowe highlighted that while Australia’s floating exchange rate gave it some policy flexibility, as a small, open economy it can’t remain impervious to what global central banks are doing. This month both the U.S. and Europe have eased in response to international volatility, from the U.S.-China confrontation to Brexit to Hong Kong to South Korea-Japan, that’s discouraging investment.

Curiously, while the governor mentioned the economy’s “gentle turning point” three times in his address, reiterating a comment from August, he failed to call on the government to increase fiscal support for the first time in a while. That likely reflects a realization that with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg recommitting to a budget surplus in fiscal 2020 and maintaining the government is doing enough to support the economy, there’s little to be gained.

“Regardless of the short-term outlook for monetary policy, the point about the solution to low global rates is relevant here in Australia too,” Lowe said. “We will all be better off if businesses have the confidence to expand, invest, innovate and hire people. Given Australia’s strong fundamentals, this is not out of our reach, but it does require constant effort.”

(Updates with currency move in fourth paragraph.)

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Chris Bourke, Malcolm Scott

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