14 August 2019

2019- n° 209

In July 2019, consumer prices edged down by 0.2% over one month and rose by 1.1% year on year Consumer price index - final results - July 2019

In July 2019, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell back by 0.2% over a month, after a rise by 0.2% in June. This dip resulted from a seasonal fall in manufactured product prices (−2.8% after a stability in June) due to summer sales, and a sharp decline in energy prices (−1.1% after −0.1%). Contrariwise, services prices gathered pace (+1.0% after +0.5%), essentially due to airfares with the beginning of school holidays. Food prices were also more dynamic than in the previous month (+0.5% after +0.1%). Finally, tobacco prices rose slightly by 0.2% over a month after a stability in June.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices slowed down to +0.1% in July 2019, after +0.3%.

Year on year, consumer prices rose by +1.1%, after +1.2% in June. This slight drop in inflation came from a year-on-year slowdown in energy, services and tobacco prices. Contrariwise, a sharp acceleration in food prices and a smaller drop in the prices for manufactured products limited the drop in inflation.

Year on year, core inflation was unchanged: +0.9%, as in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) slowed down, over a month, to −0.2% in July, after +0.3% in June; year on year, it grew by +1.3%, after +1.4% in the previous month.

Energy inflation decreased in July 2019 for the fourth consecutive month (+0.8% year on year after +2.4% in June). This slowdown was due to a sharp decline in gas prices (−2.8% year on year after +10.5%). This decline is, however, limited by a smaller drop in petroleum product prices (−1.0% after −1.3%).

Year on year, services prices decelerated to +1.1% in July 2019, after +1.2% in June. Transport prices slowed down to +0.9% year on year after +1.5% in the previous month, in the wake of airfares (+1.4% year on year after +2.4%). The prices of “other services” also decelerated to 1.6% after +1.7%. Furthermore, the drop in communication services prices was accentuated in July (−2.0% after −1.1%). Finally, inflation in health services and that in housing-related services were stable over a year.

In July 2019, food prices rose by 3.0% year on year, after +2.6% in June 2019. Those of fresh products increased much faster than in the previous month (+6.8% year on year after +3.7% in June), due to a marked acceleration in the prices of fresh vegetables (+10.6% after +6.9%). Excluding fresh products, food prices rose at the same pace as in the three previous months (+2.3% year on year).

Year on year, manufactured product prices dropped by 0.6%, after a 0.7% decrease in the previous month. This decline was due in particular to the drop in “other manufactured products” prices (−0.3% year on year after stability in June): the new motor cars prices sharply fell back (−0.5% after +1.4%), the prices of audiovisual and information processing equipment decreased more than in the previous month (−3.6% after −3.2%) just as the prices of travel goods (−1.2% after −0.1%). In addition, the drop in health product prices was slighty accentuated (−3.2% after −3.1%). Nevertheless, this decline is limited by the rebound in clothing and footwear prices (+0.3% after −0.9%), due to a lesser impact of summer sales than last year.

Compared with the provisional estimates published on July 31, 2019, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and in the HICP have been confirmed.