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Near-Term US Dollar Outlook: What the Charts may Say
The dollar had a challenging week. The Chair of the Federal Reserve confirmed as much as possible a rate cut at the end of the month. The market understood this as a validation of its expectations and pushed the implied yield of the January 2020 fed funds futures contract down six basis points to 1.715%. The low, and what we have suggested is peak dovishness, was 1.555% on June 20. As the central bank meetings are awaited later in the month, the most likely near-term scenario may be range-trading. The technical condition suggests this is reasonable against the major currencies, even the Canadian dollar, against which ... (full story)