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  • Powell: Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead

    From federalreserve.gov

    Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, a place dedicated to scholarship supporting policies to better peoples' lives. As today is International Women's Day, I would like to preface my remarks by commending the American Economic Association for highlighting the diversity challenges of the economics profession and charting a way forward. Diversity is also a priority at the Fed: I want the Fed to be known within the economics profession as a great place for women, minorities, and others of diverse backgrounds to be respected, listened to, and happy. Just ... (full story)

usd dead
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It sounds balanced dovish.I think DXY will back between 94-95
no more hike for this year..?
Next step would be rate cut
USD gonna weaker next week!
every central bank wants their money to be cheap
Like 2008, see who got the best house in a bad neighbor hood.
Sell USD until die
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Right now, most measures of the health and strength of the labor market look as favorable as they have in many decades. Inflation will probably run a bit below our objective for a time due to declines in energy prices, but those effects are likely to prove transitory. Core inflation, which is often a reliable indicator of where inflation is headed over time, is quite close to 2 percent. Despite this favorable picture, we have seen some cross-currents in recent months. With nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response and particularly given muted inflation pressures, the Committee has adopted a patient, wait-and-see approach to considering any alteration in the stance of policy.
Considering monetary policy more broadly, we are inviting thorough public scrutiny and are hoping to foster conversation regarding how the Fed can best exercise the precious monetary policy independence we have been granted. Our goal is to enhance the public's trust in the Federal Reserve--our most valuable asset.


First paragraph is what matters- should be bearish USD for near and mid term.

Second paragraph is a thinly veiled snub @ Trump (Leave us alone!!)
He is saying that they are no longer going to push the economy with the help of the Federal Reserve, which is called normalization. Then USD drops
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
Fundamentals don't support a weaker dollar.
Quoting conglomerate
Sell USD until die
And lose all your money xD
The punishment of desire is the agony of unfulfillment
big gap up on eur/usd tomorow open??
Quoting pridolfx
big gap up on eur/usd tomorow open??
if you are buying eurusd no gap.but if you r selling yes will be a gap up
Quoting bel3ouchi
{quote} if you are buying eurusd no gap.but if you r selling yes will be a gap up
lol and what this mean? if im long eur/usd and bad news for usd,that mean gap up...
The so called normalization will be when the country goes into bankruptcy because of the idiot politicians we voted in never worked for us, the people, but for the top 1%. Welcome to the United States of Poverty.
Quoting pridolfx
{quote} lol and what this mean? if im long eur/usd and bad news for usd,that mean gap up...
Are u drunk?
Quoting Nerazzurri
{quote} Are u drunk?
why?????
Quoting Nerazzurri
{quote} Are u drunk?
fuck off!!!
Quoting afevir
He is saying that they are no longer going to push the economy with the help of the Federal Reserve, which is called normalization. Then USD drops
Did you even read the policy report?
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} Did you even read the policy report?
yes I did it, if you have other idea say me
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
Quoting afevir
{quote} yes I did it, if you have other idea say me
SUURREE YOU DID READ IT!! uuhh haa!! I guess you missed the part where they said they were going to stop QT and will keep the balance sheet as large as it is and maybe expand it more after that!! Stop lying..and saying you read it..pfffttt..

"The Committee is now well along in our discussions of a plan to conclude balance sheet runoff later this year.....The normalized balance sheet may be smaller or larger than that estimate and will grow gradually over time as demand for currency rises with the economy. In all plausible cases, the balance sheet will be considerably larger than before the crisis." - Powell
Quoting FrozenThrone
no more hike for this year..?
You could minimum READ the REPORT!
from the same speech

"While the precise level of reserves that will prove ample is uncertain, standard projections, such as those in the table, suggest we could be near that level later this year. As we feel our way cautiously to this goal, we will move transparently and predictably in order to minimize needless market disruption and risks to our dual-mandate objectives. "

Basically saying we got 1 more .25 hike end of the year and finally to 3% normal rate where Fed is aiming.Now question is will the USD stay bullish until end of the Year? Will have to wait and see.
Personally USD needs to deflate before push up another leg up for rate hike. There is vast grey area from now to Dec and anything can happen economically that could halt Feds goals.
All Central Banks are on hold (except Feds)and RBA may actually cut rates 1st followed by NZ. Question of extremely strong USD may become economic hurdle for US and could effect US economy negatively hence either Feds may halt as well or next 6 months could change their trajectory.

In immediate near term there are real bargains selling USD should PA agree UC short best in my view AU EU longs second best and Don't touch GPB the poison ivy until Brexit drama clears.This could either go Extreme high or Extreme low.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
There will not be any gap. Market will open as normal. Meanwhile usd will remain strong as global growth concern mount up. Moreover i guess rangd trading will be the best option for short term at least.
China and the U.S. have reached consensus on many “crucial” issues including a commitment to observe market-oriented exchange rate mechanisms, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said.

The two sides agree to abide by previous commitments made by Group of 20 nations including to not engage in competitive depreciation, Yi said during a press conference in Beijing Sunday during the annual National People’s Congress. The governments will respect the autonomy of each other’s monetary-policy, he added.

The issue of currency manipulation has become part of the ongoing talks to solve their trade confrontation, with the U.S. pushing for a pledge by China to not devalue its currency as a way to gain competitiveness or offset the effect of tariffs. China has said that any deal to end the trade spat should be “two way, fair and equal.”

This may have some impact on DXY and can make correction till 95, together with the Mr.Powell's latest speech support.
GOLD will have big Gap tomorrow
Quoting ray4087
GOLD will have big Gap tomorrow
GAP up or down you meant???
Quoting atillaken
{quote} GAP up or down you meant???
gap up
https://charts.mql5.com/20/650/xauusd-h1-international-capital-markets.png
Quoting ray4087
GOLD will have big Gap tomorrow
why gold? what about euro?
Quoting pridolfx
{quote} why gold? what about euro?
No Gap. Nothing espicial happened. I think u already in long.
Gap for sure.
And WHEREVER is the gap... It'll close and go opposite.
😱😱😱😱

I'm thinking EU down.
1.1120 likely first target

Good luck.

...but many factors at play.
Hmmm. we may see a move up first... 1.1270-1.13🙉🙉
Nice to sell i mean. I'd rather NOT BUY.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Der Trader All Time Pips: 52,970
Powell repeats same rhetoric/message/plan/etc etc over and over 12 different times in the past 3 weeks and traders think Euro will gap up. SMH

Sad there are so many lazy gamblers that don’t put in the necessary work to have any chance of trading success .
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
Quoting Not-KPMG
Gap for sure. And WHEREVER is the gap... It'll close and go opposite. 😱😱😱😱 I'm thinking EU down. 1.1120 likely first target Good luck. ...but many factors at play. Hmmm. we may see a move up first... 1.1270-1.13🙉🙉 Nice to sell i mean. I'd rather NOT BUY.
1.1120 would be nice but remember that the EURUSD went to a low of 0.8225 in October 2000
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