Yes, I expect a sustained break and a confident 'Almost there' heading reinforces the point. I don't mind waiting 6 months - its the strength of conviction that counts. A judgment you need to make is whether any other mistakes out of Washington are likely to be major enough to push the global economy closer to a growth pause or technical recession. Of course this takes years of experience and ulcers to judge well. US Admin has succeeded in making America great again and independent thinkers at home and abroad have largely been brought to heel. The State of the Union speeches have been wonderful. So a relatively strong US economy will ensure that relative weakness everywhere else will divert non-US policymakers from any plans other than keeping things afloat and achieving mediocre growth. Apart from counting down the clock policymakers plans to implement economic reforms are on vacation.
US Dollar Outlook: Almost There
The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week. It also appreciated against most of the emerging market currencies, save two from Latam (Mexico and Peru) and two from Asia (Philippines and Malaysia). The US January jobs report on February 1, coupled with disappointing European data and a less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia, helped the dollar recover from the lower end of its recent ranges. The return of Chinese participants from the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, the data calendar and events (here) point to the risk of higher volatility. The dollar has approached the upper end of those recent ranges ... (full story)