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  • Why This Jobs Report Will Be a Mess

    From nytimes.com

    The Labor Department will release its monthly estimate of hiring and unemployment at 8:30 a.m. Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the report to show a gain of 172,000 jobs in January, down from the 312,000 added in December. But there’s even more uncertainty than usual. The Big Picture The job market ended 2018 in its best shape in years, possibly decades. That strength probably continued in early 2019 — but the partial shutdown of the federal government could make it hard to know for sure. American employers have added jobs for 99 consecutive months, easily a record, and most economists expect the ... (full story)

I expect the EURUSD will rise, because it is trending up. As usual someone will tell you why it went up after the market went up which is useless from a trading point of view 1.15487 is the potential end of the up move because this is an area where sellers were previously.
Having looked at the option levels we can see where the EURUSD might trade to

Significant forex options for expiry Friday 1 February 2019
EUR/USD

1.1300 617m EUR
1.1350 605m
1.1500 1.2bn
1.1600 842m

As Banks control the market they will actively stop peoples options getting paid out if they can 1.1500 has a jackpot of orders at so if we hit this level the banks lose 1.2bn, today this looks like the top of the EURUSD. If we do hit the level because the banks can't always stop it then its likely to turn the EURUSD down
Quoting Hurst
I expect the EURUSD will rise, because it is trending up. As usual someone will tell you why it went up after the market went up which is useless from a trading point of view 1.15487 is the potential end of the up move because this is an area where sellers were previously.

Lol trust the financial analysts
One last word of caution, we have all traded only to see that when the news is released the market reverses the move it made in the morning session. Financial sites will say oh the new was priced in. This is complete rubbish, the markets function is to fill orders, if the market moves up strongly before a news release it is simply the market makers pushing the price to fill the orders. 1.15 is a huge volume of orders so if you are a bank with a huge load of EURUSD to sell, and you don't want price to move against you, where are you going to off load them.
Quoting Hurst
Having looked at the option levels we can see where the EURUSD might trade to Significant forex options for expiry Friday 1 February 2019 EUR/USD 1.1300 617m EUR 1.1350 605m 1.1500 1.2bn 1.1600 842m As Banks control the market they will actively stop peoples options getting paid out if they can 1.1500 has a jackpot of orders at so if we hit this level the banks lose 1.2bn, today this looks like the top of the EURUSD. If we do hit the level because the banks can't always stop it then its likely to turn the EURUSD down
Ive always been interested in how to define the value of options levels at expiry. Can you explain how you know its 1,2bn? Thanks.
Quoting Hurst
Having looked at the option levels we can see where the EURUSD might trade to Significant forex options for expiry Friday 1 February 2019 EUR/USD 1.1300 617m EUR 1.1350 605m 1.1500 1.2bn 1.1600 842m As Banks control the market they will actively stop peoples options getting paid out if they can 1.1500 has a jackpot of orders at so if we hit this level the banks lose 1.2bn, today this looks like the top of the EURUSD. If we do hit the level because the banks can't always stop it then its likely to turn the EURUSD down
i've always been interested in options expiry. why exactly is the bank losing 1.2 bn if it hits 1.15? are they put or call options?
Quoting wukatrades
{quote} i've always been interested in options expiry. why exactly is the bank losing 1.2 bn if it hits 1.15? are they put or call options?

The option at this level 1.15 is the strike price, so if the EURUSD does not hit this level today the option will expire worthless. If it touches this level today then someone will pocket 1.2bn.

I do not know if they are calls or puts, but I would imagine that as we are under this level they are more likely put options.
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:36am Feb 1, 2019 6:14am | Edited at 6:36am
Quoting Grantx
{quote} Ive always been interested in how to define the value of options levels at expiry. Can you explain how you know its 1,2bn? Thanks.
I check out the levels on forexlive

The options expire at 10am NY time so I would expect the level to be defended until then.
Quoting Hurst
{quote} I check out the levels on forexlive The options expire at 10am NY time so I would expect the level to be defended until then.
Hurst, if I got you right, you believe this rise before news may be to be able to fill in sell orders, and that the banks may, if they could, prevent price from hitting 1.15 and then sell off EU from any price close to 1.15?
These are the levels for buying and selling today, option level at 1.150 only valid until 10 am NY time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_1_FEB_2019.png Size: 81 KB
Quoting Hurst
These are the levels for buying and selling today, option level at 1.150 only valid until 10 am NY time {image}
These banks could have hegdes some other places, then the Euro rose above 1.15 some days back.

The if FX is a trillion $ business on a daily bases, how significant is $1.2b to the daily trillion $ volume and value
A nice way to figure out which side of the market to be on, look up barchart dot com and load up the C.O.T charts (Commitment of Traders)...
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the more messy the better. NFP will make no difference to prevailing trends, it's not like a few years back when USA had an unemployment problem. so simply trade any spike against the trend in the direction of the trend. can't get any more simple than that.
What you talking about? It still has an unemployment problem.. I know countless peeps in the US still struggling to find a job...

Don't believe the numbers, even Trump knows these numbers are all bulls**t
Quoting Blessed-man
{quote} These banks could have hegdes some other places, then the Euro rose above 1.15 some days back. The if FX is a trillion $ business on a daily bases, how significant is $1.2b to the daily trillion $ volume and value
It takes $50 million to move a currency pair 1 pip... so the math is pretty easy
Carlos Slims Failing New York Times strikes again...
Quoting Blessed-man
{quote} These banks could have hegdes some other places, then the Euro rose above 1.15 some days back. The if FX is a trillion $ business on a daily bases, how significant is $1.2b to the daily trillion $ volume and value

The option expires today, it does not matter that the EURUSD traded there yesterday, the option is still there and they did not cash it yesterday.
Some bank made 1.2bn today now the option is out they can move the EURUSD where they want to, no one is getting paid.
Quoting Hurst
Some bank made 1.2bn today now the option is out they can move the EURUSD where they want to, no one is getting paid.
I'm getting paid, what in the monkies you talking about? lol
The title of this article / thread is "Why This Jobs Report Will Be a Mess". Can someone tell me how this jobs report is a "mess"? I think the NY Times was HOPING it would be a mess, due to the known fact they hate Trump (as is the case of all liberal media). The NY Times is now looking like a biased fool... because obviously we can ALL see the jobs report is GREAT. We can use this as a teachable moment to ignore the liberal media in their constant lies they tell us about the people they are against.
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