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  • China, the EU and others have been manipulating their currencies and rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollar gets stronger

Added at 8:52am

Another Trump-induced price move? ...... what is happening?
Keep on tweeting Trumspster
now no body believe you Sir
Follow price direction
Trump is always a victim. Sad.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.19.140
more likely Fed's Bullard call for no rate rise, move started before Trump's tweet.
i just stick to technical.. ignore those puppet
It was the Trump week ....
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.230.177
Carefully timed twitter rants aren't currency manipulation though???
Quoting hesron
now no body believe you Sir
Clearly the market does.
Here we go again.... 😂
#DonaldTrump@RealSpoiledKid
Quoting Ojiego
Another Trump-induced price move? ...... what is happening?
Yes, traders think that he is going to prevent rate hikes. The problem is that he doesn't have the power to do that.....so there is that.
Quoting Ojiego
Another Trump-induced price move? ...... what is happening?
3 witches today to
Yeah well, who was it that started this all off with Quantative Easing....aka currency manipulation? Short memory eh Donald?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
Trump is having bad day today. Troubles with Melania I guess
I suspect he has panic after focm .... no interest rate hikes more forever
Follow price direction
good bye USD
Why we see no strong reaction from S&P 500? DAX and NIKKEI are falling.
Quoting Guest
Carefully timed twitter rants aren't currency manipulation though???
indeed my friend, yes indeed.....
Quoting Tom81
Why we see no strong reaction from S&P 500? DAX and NIKKEI are falling.
its friday my friend. profit taking.
When you look at Bloomberg's first site, it looks like we're all in on trade war. Then again, even financial newspapers like to exaggerate big time nowdays.
Banks will always collect money they issued... it seems they calculated that the time for it is now. The banks from the rest of the world will do the same based on calculations of their own. That wouldn't be the problem if ... they wouldn't want to have more back than they initially gave out.
again u trump? go way ...........
Trump just killed my USD/CAD short term long. Well positive CAD Core Retail Sales didn't help either. Thanks god for BE stop loss. But it still hurts
Quoting Tom81
Trump just killed my USD/CAD short term long. Thanks god for BE stop loss. But it still hurts
UC long??? lol and you are yellow member. From where had you long? from 1.3260?
Quoting armaros
{quote} UC long??? lol and you are yellow member. From where had you long? from 1.3260?
From 1.3140, targeting 1.3330. PA broken and retested falling TL on daily TF so it had good chances of hitting my target, but combination of Trump Tweets and CAD Core Retail Sales had different idea.
Quoting Tom81
Why we see no strong reaction from S&P 500? DAX and NIKKEI are falling.
The market is under the impression no more hike for USD = cheaper as funding currency hence moving to US equities. But too early to call before 10:00 EST.
Long US Dollar
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
Think I am going to start trading NON USD pairs, President Trump through tweets brings a level of uncertainty and imbalance which causes many frustrations for trading.
"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
Quoting Tom81
{quote} From 1.3140, targeting 1.3330. PA broken and retested falling TL on daily TF so it had good chances of hitting my target, but combination of Trump Tweets and CAD Core Retail Sales had different idea.

Today is full of profit booking,for the entire week 1 trend its just opposite in friday ,so better don't take new position on friday or just do the opposite,now Rest session is going on from the CAD match ,then again session start.
Quoting OhComeOn
Think I am going to start trading NON USD pairs, President Trump through tweets brings a level of uncertainty and imbalance which causes many frustrations for trading.
I'm sorry to tell you, but Trump Tweets influence all mayor currency pairs. EUR/CAD experienced similar fall as USD/CAD did. I sometimes trade NZD/AUD for that reason, but it doesn't like to move much, so not very good for swing traders like me.
This guy has no clue about what he wants vs what he needs to do as a president.

I may be completely wrong, but if Trump wants to see a strong positive effect of imposing tariffs, he needs a very strong dollar yet he is doing everything to weaken the US dollar.

1. Strong dollar will allow the importers to compensate for high tariffs by spending less dollars when they buy from abroad.

2. Strong dollar means weak currencies for the rest around the world, which will create big time trouble for the rest - A) because they have to pay much higher price when they buy and B) the rest of the countries will have big time trouble imposing tariffs on USA because the importers wil have to pay a lot more for both goods and tariffs.

This guy is a mystery and so is the way he perceive the surroundings.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting jegas
{quote} Today is full of profit booking,for the entire week 1 trend its just opposite in friday ,so better don't take new position on friday or just do the opposite,now Rest session is going on from the CAD match ,then again session start.
I opened USD/CAD position on 07/17, all was going well until Trump disruption. Getting engulfing daily candle is not ordinary profit taking Friday, it's Trump's Tweet Friday
Quoting Ken A
Trump is always a victim. Sad.
No Ken, not Trump but the USA being taken advantage of......

NO LONGER!
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting OhComeOn
Think I am going to start trading NON USD pairs, President Trump through tweets brings a level of uncertainty and imbalance which causes many frustrations for trading.
All cross relates to major. Thats what we called currency correlations.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.125.41
Strategy is obvious.. pushing ALL the stimulus buttons on US economy.. tax cuts etc.. with no thought for consequences... in order to get short term results while damaging long term sustainability.
Everything is is about instant gratification.
The sad thing is that there are some stupid merchants selling such a tweet to sell US dollars. And I did not lose money for tweets.
Quoting realjumper
Yeah well, who was it that started this all off with Quantative Easing....aka currency manipulation? Short memory eh Donald?
1. QE was started in 2008 thanks to the world global meltdown.
2. QE was STOPPED in 2016 in the USA - The Euro continues with QE
3. QE is NOT currency manipulation. QE has the intended effect of just the OPPOSITE - please learn the facts
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Guest
Carefully timed twitter rants aren't currency manipulation though???
REALLY? What a dumb comment...

Currency manipulation is the direction action of a governmental (CHINA) to devalue their currency.

TWITTER is a comment - how people react is dependent upon them. People who react to TWITTER are TWITS.

Stupid does not equal currency manipulation.....Remember Ignorance IS curable but stupidity lasts a lifetime
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Tom81
{quote} I'm sorry to tell you, but Trump Tweets influence all mayor currency pairs. EUR/CAD experienced similar fall as USD/CAD did. I sometimes trade NZD/AUD for that reason, but it doesn't like to move much, so not very good for swing traders like me.
I don't think Trump had anything to do with EC fall. Great CAD retail sales numbers more likely.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} 1. QE was started in 2008 thanks to the world global meltdown. 2. QE was STOPPED in 2016 in the USA - The Euro continues with QE 3. QE is NOT currency manipulation. QE has the intended effect of just the OPPOSITE - please learn the facts
1. I know. But that's irrelevant
2. See 1.
3. Any action that artificially keeps a currency weaker than the free floating model is currency manipulation. End of story.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} No Ken, not Trump but the USA being taken advantage of...... NO LONGER!
Do you have any original comments to make?...or are you just going to parrot what the President tweets?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
annnnnd there goes the algos.

Trump the master dollar puppeteer
Self-Victimization is something people do to themselves. It makes them incapable of acknowledging even the simplest of facts. Why bother with facts when you can play the victim and just blame someone else?

The USA is now slowly beginning to work its way out of a decade-long period of currency manipulation. The Federal Reserve blew up their balance sheet with $4 Trillion in QE. Rates were held near 0 for many years. Remember?

Candidate Trump said he was in favor of a strong USD. Now, as POTUS, he sees what that means for commodities and (eventually) stocks and exports and sees that it will not help his trade war cause or his poll numbers on Main Street. What to do?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
You should look at Trump's account. How much has the "great patriot" been enriched since being president?
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} I don't think Trump had anything to do with EC fall. Great CAD retail sales numbers more likely.

Maybe, we'll never know But honestly, at least for USD/CAD hourly 106 pips move on pair with 96 pips daily average and relatively low ATR was probably result of very positive core ratail sales and Trump's tweets, like perfect storm.
Quoting realjumper
{quote} 1. I know. But that's irrelevant 2. See 1. 3. Any action that artificially keeps a currency weaker than the free floating model is currency manipulation. End of story.
What do you consider artificial? Interest rates?
Quoting Wayne2401
{quote} What do you consider artificial? Interest rates?
Quantative easing, obviously.

"Quantitative easing is considered an unconventional monetary policy, but it has been implemented a lot in recent times. Following the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, implemented several rounds of quantitative easing. More recently, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have implemented QE."

In every case this has resulted in the dramatic and sustained devaluing of the currency. Look at the USD during the QU phases. Look at the Yen now.....look at the Euro.

When Abe and Kuroda got onto the QE bandwagon the yen went from about 78 (against the USD) to about 123. Same sort of thing happened to the Euro.

If the Yen, for instance was still free floating (as it should be) it would be nowhere near the current level....which is artificial, thanks to QE
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} REALLY? What a dumb comment... Currency manipulation is the direction action of a governmental (CHINA) to devalue their currency. TWITTER is a comment - how people react is dependent upon them. People who react to TWITTER are TWITS. Stupid does not equal currency manipulation.....Remember Ignorance IS curable but stupidity lasts a lifetime
Warren Buffets wants to offload his holdings of GE so he tells his cohorts that at precisely 3PM he is going to TWEET that GE is the hottest stock on the market, everyone should buy it.

As the buying frenzy starts, Warren not only sells his stock, he sells it at a much higher price than he would have without the tweet.

SEC finds out- Warren goes to jail.

YES, tweeting can be considered market manipulation. Also- QE is 100% currency manipulation.
Trump is KING..... Chillax.
QE means basically "printing" money from thin air. We don't see much of inflation pressures, because money is not given to demand side directly, but to buy government's and corporation debt. How will major central banks find buyers to reduce 14 trillion worth balance sheets, is beyond me. Probably by repacking and selling it to pension funds. What happens with pensions in 30 years time? Nobody cares.
Buying USD/CAD dip. I don't care. Long life CHAOS
Attached Image
Invest in alarm clocks
Quoting Tony112
Buying USD/CAD dip. I don't care. Long life CHAOS {image}
I'm with you on this one. It's at the support line on the daily chart - good entry.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Tradingwithw
{quote} Warren Buffets wants to offload his holdings of GE so he tells his cohorts that at precisely 3PM he is going to TWEET that GE is the hottest stock on the market, everyone should buy it. As the buying frenzy starts, Warren not only sells his stock, he sells it at a much higher price than he would have without the tweet. SEC finds out- Warren goes to jail. YES, tweeting can be considered market manipulation. Also- QE is 100% currency manipulation.
In your example the TWEET itself wasn't manipulation, but the COLLUSION of Buffet and his cronies WAS MANIPULATION. The TWEET didn't do anything but initiate the COLLUSION that was manipulation and illegal to boot!

Trumps TWEETS are the random rants of person who thinks out loud. PERSONALLY I don't like that he does it but it most definately doesn't manipulate the market.

AGAIN QE IS NOT CURRENCY MANIPULATION. It is the printing of money, whether dollars, Euro's, Yen, etc., The RESULT may be to move to currency but it is not DIRECTLY affecting the value.

Words are important as is their meaning and understanding.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting The Fool
Self-Victimization is something people do to themselves. It makes them incapable of acknowledging even the simplest of facts. Why bother with facts when you can play the victim and just blame someone else?
We agree about that victimization is self-inflicting. However, what Trump says (not all but A LOT) is statements that NO ONE has stated in the past. It's not about being a victim but letting people know what has happened and that is WHY we are going to do X, Y & Z.

Quoting The Fool
The USA is now slowly beginning to work its way out of a decade-long period of currency manipulation. The Federal Reserve blew up their balance sheet with $4 Trillion in QE. Rates were held near 0 for many years. Remember?
1. I agree about the QE but I disagree that it was currency manipulation - see my earlier comments. The PURPOSE of QE was to keep interest rates artifically low to spur economic growth and development. ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW (ZERO) INTEREST RATES WAS AN UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE.

2. The FED balance sheets - who cares? I don't. The FED is a privately held institution. NOTHING to do with US government except to set interest rates. Talking about the FED is a whole DIFFERENT TOPIC.

Quoting The Fool
Candidate Trump said he was in favor of a strong USD. Now, as POTUS, he sees what that means for commodities and (eventually) stocks and exports and sees that it will not help his trade war cause or his poll numbers on Main Street. What to do?.
Perception and reality rarely live up to expectations do they? A strong USD hurts US exports and right now that is what Trump is focusing on, reducing the trade deficit. A strong USD indicates that the US economy is doing well, hence the need to raise interest rates, hence a strong dollar.

Globalization f**ked things up. It was a lot easier when a company has one headquaters and did all their manufacturing/work in one country. Now it is a lot more difficult.

Does Trump have the answers? Hell no! But he is attacking the problem from a different viewpoint than any of his predicessors and frankly I find that refreshing. Is it correct? Only time will tell.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Sanguis
You should look at Trump's account. How much has the "great patriot" been enriched since being president?
Not fair - all the President's assets and money are locked into a blind trust, or in his case, his companies run by his kids. The Trump organization has actually LOST $ due to building removing the Trump name and he has LOST licensing deals.

US Presidents make their money AFTER they leave office.
Exhibit A. The Clintons left the WH with ZERO in fact they owed $ due to Bills legal bills. Now 20 years later he and Hillary are multi-millionairs thanks to the Clinton Foundation (non-profit my azz)
Exhibit B. Obama - never had a "job" in his life and is living in a HUGE mansion and touring the world collect 6 figure speaking fees.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting realjumper
{quote} When Abe and Kuroda got onto the QE bandwagon the yen went from about 78 (against the USD) to about 123. Same sort of thing happened to the Euro.

If the Yen, for instance was still free floating (as it should be) it would be nowhere near the current level....which is artificial, thanks to QE
Once AGAIN you are incorrect. Japan has LONG manipulated their currency in the 1980's, 1990's and ever since.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/17/what-happens-after-you-label-a-country-a-currency-manipulator/
https://piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/360/13iie3519.pdf

For those too lazy to click on the link this is from the IMF paper (2003) Chapter 13
Exchange Rate Manipulation to Gain
an Unfair Competitive Advantage:
The Case Against Japan and China
ERNEST H. PREEG
Article IV of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Agreement states that members should ‘‘avoid manipulating exchange rates . . . in order. . . to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members,’’ and the related surveillance provision defines manipulation to include ‘‘protracted large-scale intervention in one direction in the exchange market.’’ In other words, if a US trading partner makes protracted large-scale purchases of dollars and other currencies (that is, one-direction intervention) that leads to a lower-than-market-based exchange rate and a larger-than-market-determined trade surplus, there is prima facie evidence of IMF-proscribed exchange rate manipulation to gain an unfair competitive
advantage. In this context, this paper examines four questions: Have Japan and China, among others, been manipulating their exchange rates in recent years, as defined by the IMF? And if so, what has been the impact of such currency manipulation on the dollar exchange rate and the US trade
deficit? What are the consequences for US economic and foreign policy interests? How should the US government respond?

Have Japan and China, Among Others, Been Manipulating Their Exchange Rates in Recent Years, as Defined by the IMF?

The answer begins with an assessment of the two adjectives applied to intervention in the IMF rules: ‘‘large-scale’’ and ‘‘protracted.’’ In the casesof Japan and China, as shown in tables 13.1 and 13.2, they unquestionably apply. Japanese one-direction intervention to buy dollars and other foreign exchange has totaled $233 billion since 1998, with large purchases each year, including $48 billion during the first seven months of 2002. Chinese cumulative purchases have been $98 billion since 1998, with a
sharp upward trend to $46 billion in 2001 and $31 billion, or more than $5 billion per month, during the first six months of 2002.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Once AGAIN you are incorrect. Japan has LONG manipulated their currency in the 1980's, 1990's and ever since. https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/17/what-happens-after-you-label-a-country-a-currency-manipulator/ https://piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/360/13iie3519.pdf For those too lazy to click on the link this is from the IMF paper (2003) Chapter 13 Exchange Rate Manipulation to Gain an Unfair Competitive Advantage: The Case Against Japan and China ERNEST H. PREEG Article IV of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Agreement states...
Once again...all irrelevant drivel.

QE aka printing money necessarily must equal a dramatic devaluation of the host currency....this has happened in every single case of QE bar none. The host current is artificially weakened and considerably so.....in other words, currency manipulation...no matter which way you slice it up.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
"1. I agree about the QE but I disagree that it was currency manipulation - see my earlier comments. The PURPOSE of QE was to keep interest rates artifically low to spur economic growth and development. ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW (ZERO) INTEREST RATES WAS AN UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE."

How do you know this consequence was unintended? Are you just assuming? If you see something that walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, do you assume it's a penguin in a duck suit?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Once again...all irrelevant drivel. QE aka printing money necessarily must equal a dramatic devaluation of the host currency....this has happened in every single case of QE bar none. The host current is artificially weakened and considerably so.....in other words, currency manipulation...no matter which way you slice it up.
LOL Now when PRESENTED with FACTS all you say is irrelevant drivel.....Do you work for CNN, MSNBC or any of the elite media? QE is NOT currency manipulation.

What is currency manipulation?
Currency manipulation or currency intervention is a monetary policy operation which occurs when a government or central bank buys or sells foreign currency in exchange for their own domestic currency, generally with the intention of influencing the exchange rate and trade policy. Policymakers may have different reasons for currency manipulation, such as controlling inflation, maintaining international competitiveness, financial stability, etc. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_manipulator)

The Bottom Line (From Ivestopedia)
In theory, currency manipulation and a monetary policy like quantitative easing aren't the same thing. One is interest rate policy based and the other currency focused. However, as central banks began their QE programs, one result was the weakening of its currency. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090915/quantitative-easing-vs-currency-manipulation.asp

More FACTS -
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting The Fool
How do you know this consequence was unintended? Are you just assuming? If you see something that walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, do you assume it's a penguin in a duck suit?
Great question. The entire QE episode was an EXPERIMENT.

The entire financial system was on the brink of collapse and frankly the FED (along with WH economic guru's) didn't know if it would work.

Whenever something is done the FIRST time and the results are unknown than anything that happens OTHER than the anticipated result occurs and is labeled an unintended consequence.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Tony112
Buying USD/CAD dip. I don't care. Long life CHAOS {image}
This is the best price to buy? Im still waiting on this pair. Looking to buy at 1.29xx-1.30xx level area. What say u?
Quoting Pipmasterfx
{quote} This is the best price to buy? Im still waiting on this pair. Looking to buy at 1.29xx-1.30xx level area. What say u?
It bounced at 1.3110 and that is the longer term uptrend on the daily chart.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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...because you never know - until you do!
We can test your hypothesis by looking at what happens generally when the money supply (either MB and/or M1) is dramatically increased. It stands to reason that that would always devalue the currency. Whether "ALWAYS" is true is a topic for further googling.

"1. I agree about the QE but I disagree that it was currency manipulation - see my earlier comments. The PURPOSE of QE was to keep interest rates artifically low to spur economic growth and development. ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW (ZERO) INTEREST RATES WAS AN UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE."

The concept of QE was not new to the '08 Fed. They have done POMO in the past, beginning in the 1920'S. Your assumption that they had no clues about the consequences of the massive QE begun 10 yrs ago is just a convenient leap of faith.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions

1920s: The Beginning of Open Market Operations

Following World War I, Benjamin Strong, head of the New York Fed from 1914 to his death in 1928, recognized that gold no longer served as the central factor in controlling credit. Strong’s aggressive action to stem a recession in 1923 through a large purchase of government securities gave clear evidence of the power of open market operations to influence the availability of credit in the banking system. During the 1920s, the Fed began using open market operations as a monetary policy tool. During his tenure, Strong also elevated the stature of the Fed by promoting relations with other central banks, especially the Bank of England.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting fxsport
{quote} It bounced at 1.3110 and that is the longer term uptrend on the daily chart. {image}
There's a gap still open at 1.2950-1.3000. Im not sure either the market will fill it or not, thats why im still waiting. If today candlestick close at the current price (+-30pips), im still waiting. However im looking to buy this pair for medium and long term trade
Quoting Pipmasterfx
{quote} There's a gap still open at 1.2950-1.3000.
Gap trading is a myth, no bank cares that some broker may have a 1 pip gap somewhere. Because every broker has their own chart, a bit different due to their spreads and volatility.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
From1toMillion EA All Time Return: 1,155.4%
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Quantative easing, obviously. "Quantitative easing is considered an unconventional monetary policy, but it has been implemented a lot in recent times. Following the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, implemented several rounds of quantitative easing. More recently, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have implemented QE." In every case this has resulted in the dramatic and sustained devaluing of the currency. Look at the USD during the QU phases. Look at the Yen now.....look...
As all the majors have engaged in QE it cannot be unconventional.
The US did it, as you say, on that basis they to manipulated their currency.
Trump mentions lowering interest rates, everyone moves their interest rates, for various reasons, at some time ( often inflation related) that affects the currency, is that manipulation.
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Gap trading is a myth, no bank cares that some broker may have a 1 pip gap somewhere. Because every broker has their own chart, a bit different due to their spreads and volatility.
Nevermind, myth or not lets see what'll happento this pair later (usdcad)
Quoting The Fool
We can test your hypothesis by looking at what happens generally when the money supply (either MB and/or M1) is dramatically increased. It stands to reason that that would always devalue the currency. Whether "ALWAYS" is true is a topic for further googling. "1. I agree about the QE but I disagree that it was currency manipulation - see my earlier comments. The PURPOSE of QE was to keep interest rates artifically low to spur economic growth and development. ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW (ZERO) INTEREST RATES WAS AN UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE."...
Good interesting history lessons however what the FED did prior to 1971 cannot be correlated with anything QE related in the 20th century for one simple phrase:

GOLD STANDARD.

Since 1971 the USD became a fiat currency and it has been "free floating" since.

What the US & EU did with QE was/is totally different than what China and Japan do with their currencies.

Results may be similar but the methods are different.

Back to the original theory, "Can a tweet be considered currency manipulation?"

The tweet by itself - NO! Emphatic NO! If however there is prior collusion and a determined plan of action that is triggered by the tweet - YES.

That is why this whole US/Trump/Russian Collusion mess is a sham. Did Russia meddle, tamper, attempt to persuade/dissuade? YUP!
Was there collusion with the Trump campaign? NOPE. How do I know? With all the leaks in DC and the internet if there was a smoking gun it would have appeared by now. The only US/Russian collusion was done by the Democrats and Hillary Clinton, paying the former MI6 operative Steele to obtain fake Russian information to discredit her competition. If ANYONE is guilty of collusion it is Ms. Clinton...but I digress.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Good interesting history lessons however what the FED did prior to 1971 cannot be correlated with anything QE related in the 20th century for one simple phrase: GOLD STANDARD. Since 1971 the USD became a fiat currency and it has been "free floating" since. What the US & EU did with QE was/is totally different than what China and Japan do with their currencies. Results may be similar but the methods are different. Back to the original theory, "Can a tweet be considered currency manipulation?" The tweet by itself -...
i would be careful Sporty, of saying , just because nothing has come out to date, nothing ever will, history teaches us, these things can surface at the oddest of times and from the most unlikely of quarters. I also have seen nothing thus far to suggest collusion, however i do believe Russia has something on Trump. I think it is financial as opposed to whores in a hotel etc..
Quoting Guest
Carefully timed twitter rants aren't currency manipulation though???
or maybe good oportunity to short at resistance level together with those who manipulate ?
Quoting NotAtrader
This guy has no clue about what he wants vs what he needs to do as a president. I may be completely wrong, but if Trump wants to see a strong positive effect of imposing tariffs, he needs a very strong dollar yet he is doing everything to weaken the US dollar. 1. Strong dollar will allow the importers to compensate for high tariffs by spending less dollars when they buy from abroad. 2. Strong dollar means weak currencies for the rest around the world, which will create big time trouble for the rest - A) because they have to pay much higher price...
Actually no. If the dollar is strong then it makes the Chinese and European products cheaper to import because the dollar has a bigger buying power.
Quoting Nick.
{quote} Actually no. If the dollar is strong then it makes the Chinese and European products cheaper to import because the dollar has a bigger buying power.
This exactly what said, just using a little more words.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} This exactly what said, just using a little more words.
You did say that yes but then even with a 20% tariff in place it would still make imports more attractive to consumers. Don't you think?
Quoting Nick.
{quote} You did say that yes but then even with a 20% tariff in place it would still make imports more attractive to consumers. Don't you think?
Tariffs and higher oil prices will cause higher inflation and feds need to continue raising the rates. This will make the rate difference between EU and other countries widen, causing the USD getting stronger. Looks like the trade war is not so easy to win. There is a reason why trade wars are widely opposed. Unfortunately there is one person in power who thinks that he knows better than anyone else..
Quoting Nick.
{quote} You did say that yes but then even with a 20% tariff in place it would still make imports more attractive to consumers. Don't you think?
Yes mate exactly my thoughts.
Maybe you misunderstood something from my comment or probably I explained myself not correctly enough.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Don't argue pals

Now, i look in dollar mess and see it up again??
Obviously Trumpy blabber has no further impact.

EU think to sell 1.1740-60 where trendline is. One spike above possible.....

🍻
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Yes mate exactly my thoughts. Maybe you misunderstood something from my comment or probably I explained myself not correctly enough.
Sorry bud I think I did misunderstand
Quoting fxsport
{quote} In your example the TWEET itself wasn't manipulation, but the COLLUSION of Buffet and his cronies WAS MANIPULATION. The TWEET didn't do anything but initiate the COLLUSION that was manipulation and illegal to boot! Trumps TWEETS are the random rants of person who thinks out loud. PERSONALLY I don't like that he does it but it most definately doesn't manipulate the market. AGAIN QE IS NOT CURRENCY MANIPULATION. It is the printing of money, whether dollars, Euro's, Yen, etc., The RESULT may be to move to currency but it is not DIRECTLY affecting...
You have to take into consideration the person making the tweet. If it was you or I tweeted about a pair being too strong, nobody cares. If a leader of the free world does, it moves markets.

If Donald tweets tomorrow "I will do everything in my powers to bring down the price of the dollar", what do you think will happen to the markets on Monday? The mere threat itself will be enough to drive the dollar down, albeit for a short time period.
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Absolutely. The role of the Treasury in currency policy and its powers in relation to whats generally accepted by markets as the Feds independent mandate in management of monetary policy to ensure stability.(yes there are others but thats the core so please no pedantic responses))..... is a little understood reality.
Thats why if we we see administration switched from Dollar Strong policy to Dollar Weak Policy moves markets. People who've traded Fx for a decade or more will know that the "Declared" Treasury policy has been regarded by market participants as Political rhetoric to ensure strong international demand support for US debt. IOHO this Admin, declaration of a weak dollar policy has perils at a time that US debt issue requirement is in a major uptrend.
The historical strong dollar mantra helped to quell fears among foreign investors who worry about the currency’s relentless rout would eat into returns, and also help keep borrowing costs low for the U.S. government.
Professionally I accept that otherwise risky policy like the immediate post crisis QE has validity to save the systemm.. but tricking about for short term political advantage .. is IOHO seriously misguided.
Quoting NotAtrader
This guy has no clue about what he wants vs what he needs to do as a president. I may be completely wrong, but if Trump wants to see a strong positive effect of imposing tariffs, he needs a very strong dollar yet he is doing everything to weaken the US dollar. 1. Strong dollar will allow the importers to compensate for high tariffs by spending less dollars when they buy from abroad. 2. Strong dollar means weak currencies for the rest around the world, which will create big time trouble for the rest - A) because they have to pay much higher price...
Actually you are REALLY off base about your assumptions and concept of tariff's.

Let me attempt to simplify it for you........The PURPOSE of the Trump imposed tariff's is two-fold:

1. Other countries (MAINLY CHINA) have manipulated their currencies to artifical low rates so that their products are much cheaper (less expensive) than American products. Therefore consumers purchase the less expensive products and it hurts the American manufacturers. By applying a 25% tariff on the Chinese import NOW the cost of Chinese vs. American made are equal therefore Americans will purchase American produced products thereby creating American jobs and stimulating American economy. The STRONGER the US dollar is the LESS COMPETITIVE the American produced products are vs. the less expensive imports.

2. Countries like CHINA have a much HIGHER tariff on US IMPORTED products to make these more expensive products even MORE EXPENSIVE so that they are at an extreme disadvantage when selling in China. For example a Tesla built in the USA and sells for $50,000 here is exported to China where the Chinese impose a 35% tariff on the Tesla. Now the Tesla cost $67,500 in the Chinese market. If the Chinese yuan drops another 10% it in effect causes the Chinese consumer to pay not $67,500 but $74,250 (10% mark up)

The purpose of the tariff's was NOT to raise prices and hurt trade but to be an "economic weapon" to get China to lower their import tariff's, stop dumping Steel and Aluminum on the market (selling the product for less that what it costs to manufacture thanks to government subsidies) and to stop stealing copyright and intellilectual ideas.

There are other reasons but I'm trying to simplify here
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Tariffs and higher oil prices will cause higher inflation and feds need to continue raising the rates. This will make the rate difference between EU and other countries widen, causing the USD getting stronger. Looks like the trade war is not so easy to win. There is a reason why trade wars are widely opposed. Unfortunately there is one person in power who thinks that he knows better than anyone else..
Once again you are FORGETTING one simple thing....Let us assume you are correct and that as the FED increases raising rates the USD continues to rise....ok?

Energy prices (which are in USD) SHOULD stabilize or FALL, because as the dollar strengthens the product "gains" value. What country is poised to become the #1 oil producer? The USA. As the US ramps up oil production, as we have a LOT, it will lower energy costs immensely HERE in the USA.

Now as the USD increases the cost of IMPORTS from CHINA, EU and other countries gets more and more expensive - DO WE AGREE ON THIS?

However as import prices for a "widget" increase the American cost for the same "widget" stays the same. So which "widget" will the US consumer purchase, assuming the same price or with a US price now LOWER than the imported price?

OH BUT HERE'S WHERE THE ECONOMISTS GET IT WRONG, OR JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND.....

Now that the US consumer has to pay higher prices for their "widgets" they will slow down their spending (conventional thinking) BUT with move US employment and improved consumer sentiment the US consumer will simply cut out the "non essential" purchases which are typically the imported "widgets & trinkets" anyway.

Who gets hurt? Well the US IMPORT companies will see sales decrease IF they pass along the higher costs as well as the EXPORT companies that make the products. (DO WE AGREE WITH THIS STATEMENT?)

Now THIS will blow your mind.....WHAT happens if the IMPORT companies DON'T pass along the higher costs to the American consumers because they don't want to lose market share? What happens is the COMPANIES agree that its' OK to have reduced profit margins BECAUSE their corporate income taxes were reduced and the REDUCED US TAXES OFFSET THE HIGHER IMPORT COSTS? What happens if the US companies increase their productivity to offset the higher costs of the USD & "TRADE WAR TARIFF'S?"

In the above cases who is the loser? The export nations because they CAN NOT compensate for the loss in business.

THEREFORE, ONE CAN WIN A TRADE WAR IF ONE HAS THE PATIENCE AND HAS ALL THE CARDS. It may not be fun and yes will be UGLY but you have to play for the long-term - that's how CHINA came so far so fast.

China is combating the tariff's by manipulating their currency - devalue the currency to compensate for tariff. The EU can't do that. Canada and Mexico can't do that either. Therefore the USA will "win" against those nations but that one nation that matters the MOST - CHINA - will be the hardest nation to "win".

Unfortunately for the US "allies" they are collateral damage in this "TRADE WAR"
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Guest
Absolutely. The role of the Treasury in currency policy and its powers in relation to whats generally accepted by markets as the Feds independent mandate in management of monetary policy to ensure stability.(yes there are others but thats the core so please no pedantic responses))..... is a little understood reality. Thats why if we we see administration switched from Dollar Strong policy to Dollar Weak Policy moves markets. People who've traded Fx for a decade or more will know that the "Declared" Treasury policy has been regarded by...
Great insight - however it wasn't "supposed" to last this long. China was "supposed" to capitulate - no one told them.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting digit1288
{quote} You have to take into consideration the person making the tweet. If it was you or I tweeted about a pair being too strong, nobody cares. If a leader of the free world does, it moves markets. If Donald tweets tomorrow "I will do everything in my powers to bring down the price of the dollar", what do you think will happen to the markets on Monday? The mere threat itself will be enough to drive the dollar down, albeit for a short time period.
You answered your own question (highlighted). Knee jerk reactions by little investors (you & I) would panic and purchase EU, GU, etc.,

But the "BIG BOYS" and commercial interests would know better. After 1-2 days (or maybe even hours) the market would quickly reverse and be right back where it started BEFORE THE TWEET.

Is that manipulation? Not in my book, it is simply people taking advantage of a situation that prevents itself.

If you don't like that - STAY OUT OF THE MARKET! No one said life or Forex trading is supposed to be fair.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Actually you are REALLY off base about your assumptions and concept of tariff's. Let me attempt to simplify it for you........
blah...
blah...
blah...
There are other reasons but I'm trying to simplify here
That’s too simple for me mate
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
"OH BUT HERE'S WHERE THE ECONOMISTS GET IT WRONG, OR JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND....."

Good that you and your Messiah understand..enough with the experts, the uneducated know much better how the economy and trade works.
Quoting TraderTero
"OH BUT HERE'S WHERE THE ECONOMISTS GET IT WRONG, OR JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND....." Good that you and your Messiah understand..enough with the experts, the uneducated know much better how the economy and trade works.
Now you're catching on....there's hope for you yet!

As for you comment about uneducated....don't be so hard on yourself TraderTero, I understand how difficult it must be for you and the other liberal elite know nothings but if you really apply yourself and try to read & comprehend you may one day achieve a level of intellectual equivalency that I and The Donald have ascended to.

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...because you never know - until you do!
so looks like trump comment was just free money (maybe for him also). Just took profits at 1.1682, sold at 1.1720. Thank you Trump plus today european PMI forecast is probably helping to drag price down.
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  • Posted: Jul 20, 2018 8:44am
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