The arriving better than the arrival, the journey has just started

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Investors sense that the sands beneath their feet are shifting. Rising US yields and equities have traditionally been yen negative. With the recent gains that carried the yen to its best level against the dollar since late 2016 and up 6% to lead the major currencies this year, the old relationships appear to have broken down. The 60-day rolling correlation between the level of the dollar-yen exchange rate and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury yield has become inverted since mid-January, and now at -0.87 is the most inverted since 2001. Rising yields also were linked to the recent dramatic slide in equities, but in ... (full story)