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  • Why global markets are in free-fall

    From abc.net.au

    It was always going to be a tough ask. How to remove all that stimulus, all those trillions of freshly minted dollars in emergency money from an economy, without causing conniptions on financial markets? The shake-out on global stock markets is long overdue. Despite an economy struggling to raise itself off the mat, American investors pushed Wall Street to record levels in 2013 and then doggedly higher, thanks to radical steps by the US Federal Reserve. Not only did it cut interest rates to zero, to ward off the worst effects of the global financial crisis, it engaged in three long bouts of money printing, pumping ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Feb 5, 2018 11:13pm Feb 5, 2018 11:13pm
Thank you Really cool article well explained, and of course there is more out there_ The Unsaid
"A healthy and much needed correction? Or the start of a major crash? They are the questions on everyone's lips. No-one knows the answer"
The arriving better than the arrival, the journey has just started
  • #2
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  • Feb 5, 2018 11:51pm Feb 5, 2018 11:51pm
Quoting jenbols
Thank you Really cool article well explained, and of course there is more out there_ The Unsaid "A healthy and much needed correction? Or the start of a major crash? They are the questions on everyone's lips. No-one knows the answer"
This feels how the start of the GFC felt. Only missing is something like the US housing crash. I am keeping my money free to ride the shitstorm down if it happens again.
  • #3
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  • Feb 6, 2018 1:21am Feb 6, 2018 1:21am
When fed raise rate this is expected to happen. They make it sound like it's a mystery. This is the boom bust cycle of raising and lowering interest rate. I'm not even going to bother reading the article.
Be like water go with the flow
  • #4
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  • Feb 6, 2018 4:11am Feb 6, 2018 4:11am
On D1 it looks like a "disaster".
On W1 it's just a "healthy" correction.
Stop blabbing ...US is going up ...ask Donnie!
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  • #5
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  • Feb 6, 2018 4:12am Feb 6, 2018 4:12am
  •  Trader#D1DC
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
The market has picked up so many points already.
We are almost near GFC terriorty and i think australia will cause a housing bubble burst
  • #6
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  • Feb 6, 2018 4:45am Feb 6, 2018 4:45am
Who are the "investors" just tell us some names?!

The FED had done a critical mistake so far by holding rates very tightly low until now!! whilevthe economy was and still improving in many aspects.

Savers are also investors in someway, the FED must give a look at these ppl too, not just favoring stock investors for years now!!
  • #7
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  • Feb 6, 2018 4:52am Feb 6, 2018 4:52am
Quoting Guest
The market has picked up so many points already. We are almost near GFC terriorty and i think australia will cause a housing bubble burst
sydney house prices are falling and also the auction rate sales have fallen , bubbles got a pin prick
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #8
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  • Feb 6, 2018 4:58am Feb 6, 2018 4:58am
Quoting TudorIoan
On D1 it looks like a "disaster". On W1 it's just a "healthy" correction. Stop blabbing ...US is going up ...ask Donnie! {image}

.... it is all about the perception,but you have to ask yourself about the strength of the move.... and how confident will be the bulls when the gains of the last two months are wiped out in the matter of two days.
  • #9
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:05am Feb 6, 2018 5:05am
Why is a bank like Credit Suisse allowed to gamble on an ETF which is basically an index of volatility?
Gone to a better place
  • #10
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:09am Feb 6, 2018 5:09am
Quoting fake.it
{quote} .... it is all about the perception,but you have to ask yourself about the strength of the move.... and how confident will be the bulls when the gains of the last two months are wiped out in the matter of two days.
We all know it was panic.
I am aware that the current level is not the end of the panic nor the start of buying opportunity. Jussta little more bungee chaos up'n'down ... we'll see ...patience!
Stocks looked like a bubble few inches away to explode for very much people in the game.
Well, that happened at the end of the last week.
I can only hope it's justta "sentiment chaos", US economy can still breath above the water.
We'll see ...not an expert here.
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  • #11
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:20am Feb 6, 2018 5:20am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} We all know it was panic. I am aware that the current level is not the end of the panic nor the start of buying opportunity. Jussta little more bungee chaos up'n'down ... we'll see ...patience! Stocks looked like a bubble few inches away to explode for very much people in the game. Well, that happened at the end of the last week. I can only hope it's justta "sentiment chaos", US economy can still breath above the water. We'll see ...not an expert here.
I'm not so sure it was a panic. Big funds probably saw a top - there was an "exhaustion spike". Everybody agrees a correction is healthy. The biggest problem now is if everybody else decides to cash in before it goes lower.
Gone to a better place
  • #12
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:32am Feb 6, 2018 5:32am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} sydney house prices are falling and also the auction rate sales have fallen , bubbles got a pin prick
The problem with predicting a housing price crash is that housing, unlike some other speculations, has a very valuable purpose, like food.
Gone to a better place
  • #13
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:36am Feb 6, 2018 5:36am
I wonder when crybabies will come and blame ALL on Bitcoin!!!
😂😂
Housing bubble too - blame crypto!!!
...
Or run towards safety in crypto????
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #14
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:41am Feb 6, 2018 5:41am
Quoting smikester
{quote} I'm not so sure it was a panic. Big funds probably saw a top - there was an "exhaustion spike". Everybody agrees a correction is healthy. The biggest problem now is if everybody else decides to cash in before it goes lower.
The top... well, the top was there all the time ...it was like next top over the top, over the top, over the top.....
The spark was missing... and there we go on last Friday!
I am affraid it was not a Big Shark command ...rather a mass phenomenon ..I hate conspiracy grumble... doesn't matter, we don't care, ...we just react, we just sell.
Everybody decides... it can't be "everybody" ...it's never "everybody against everybody" in this game ...it's more like "some players against others" in a zero-sum game.

I will stay out until the bungee stops.
Maybe I'll buy some Gold... although I would prefer crypto
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  • #15
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:41am Feb 6, 2018 5:41am
Quoting Not-KPMG
I wonder when crybabies will come and blame ALL on Bitcoin!!! 😂😂 Housing bubble too - blame crypto!!! ... Or run towards safety in crypto????
Oh, it was Bitcoin all the time?
Gone to a better place
  • #16
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  • Feb 6, 2018 5:43am Feb 6, 2018 5:43am
Quoting Not-KPMG
I wonder when crybabies will come and blame ALL on Bitcoin!!! Housing bubble too - blame crypto!!! ... Or run towards safety in crypto????
Hey, everybody knows they've dumped everything to get McDonals shares
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  • #17
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  • Feb 6, 2018 6:02am Feb 6, 2018 6:02am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} The top... well, the top was there all the time ...it was like next top over the top, over the top, over the top..... The spark was missing... and there we go on last Friday! I am affraid it was not a Big Shark command ...rather a mass phenomenon ..I hate conspiracy grumble... doesn't matter, we don't care, ...we just react, we just sell. Everybody decides... it can't be "everybody" ...it's never "everybody against everybody" in this game ...it's more like "some players against others" in a zero-sum game. I...
I think the spark may have been the biggest monthly rise in SPX since 2015? Not sure, what do you think?

The article says "
On Friday, the good news finally arrived. Not only were US jobs figures better than expected, but wages were growing.
That sent shivers through the market as it finally dawned on punters that the era of emergency interest rates was rapidly coming to an end.
High risk stocks, many of them hugely overvalued, were ripe for a fall."

So it was caused by good news. How ironic.
Gone to a better place
  • #18
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  • Feb 6, 2018 6:09am Feb 6, 2018 6:09am
Quoting smikester
{quote} I think the spark may have been the biggest monthly rise in SPX since 2015? Not sure, what do you think?
Thank you considering my views, but you ask too much from me this time
I really don't know for sure. But - as said above - I don't give too much care.
I'd rather react,... then sit on my back, legs high, watching the charts show and have a special drink and cigar for such occasions LOLOL
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  • #19
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  • Feb 6, 2018 8:33am Feb 6, 2018 8:33am
Quoting smikester
{quote} I think the spark may have been the biggest monthly rise in SPX since 2015? Not sure, what do you think? The article says " On Friday, the good news finally arrived. Not only were US jobs figures better than expected, but wages were growing. That sent shivers through the market as it finally dawned on punters that the era of emergency interest rates was rapidly coming to an end. High risk stocks, many of them hugely overvalued, were ripe for a fall." So it was caused by good news. How ironic.
Smikester,

One thing to consider in your "exhaustion" spike theory for January (earlier post), is that it was not on very high volume. More like average volume. To have an exhaustion spike up, you need it to be on very high volume because the "funds" as you stated, would be selling all the way up, and heavily.

Don't get me wrong, this may turn into something more. I cannot predict the future. My thoughts are, however, that this craziness is unwarranted. Were we due for a correction? Yes. Should we want a correction? Yes. Am I planning to get back in when this thing drops 20% or more? Yes. Do I want it to keep falling? Sure :-) Just gives me a better entry!

Best of luck to you!
  • #20
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  • Feb 6, 2018 8:49am Feb 6, 2018 8:49am
Quoting Atreides
{quote} Smikester, One thing to consider in your "exhaustion" spike theory for January (earlier post), is that it was not on very high volume. More like average volume. To have an exhaustion spike up, you need it to be on very high volume because the "funds" as you stated, would be selling all the way up, and heavily. Don't get me wrong, this may turn into something more. I cannot predict the future. My thoughts are, however, that this craziness is unwarranted. Were we due for a correction? Yes. Should we want a correction? Yes....
Thanks for the information. I tend to think you are right and that the article is, too.
Gone to a better place
  • #21
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  • Feb 6, 2018 8:53am Feb 6, 2018 8:53am
With hindsight we all can be experts in what we're doing.
  • #22
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  • Feb 6, 2018 10:39am Feb 6, 2018 10:39am
Some little wealth transfer...
  • #23
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  • Feb 7, 2018 1:04am Feb 7, 2018 1:04am
Quoting maflip
When fed raise rate this is expected to happen. They make it sound like it's a mystery. This is the boom bust cycle of raising and lowering interest rate. I'm not even going to bother reading the article.
Maflip,

Could you please explain, why is it so. Much appreciated.

Thanks
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  • Posted: Feb 5, 2018 10:59pm
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    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 23  /  Views: 9,621