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  • Canada flagged as hidden $14 trillion credit bubble stokes global crisis fears

    From financialpost.com

    The world’s top financial watchdog has uncovered US$14 trillion of global dollar debt hidden in derivatives and swap contracts, a startling sum that doubles the underlying levels of offshore dollar credit in the international system. The scale of this lending greatly increases the risk of a future funding crisis if inflation ever forces the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten in earnest and drain worldwide liquidity, potentially triggering a dollar surge. A forensic study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) says enormous liabilities have accrued through FX swaps, currency swaps, and “forwards.” The data ... (full story)

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  • Comment #1
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:19am Sep 19, 2017 12:19am
  •  webguy7
  • | Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Member | 9 Comments
Is this what made the Canadian Dollar plummet at 2pm EST (18:00 GMT) on 9/18/17? I've been trying to figure what happened.
 
 
  • Comment #2
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:26am Sep 19, 2017 12:26am
  •  AnniLi
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2015 | 2212 Comments
Every loan has a lender and a borrower - no matter what you call it. Each lender and borrower takes on the responsibilities inherent in the loan contract. Provided neither side is underwrittten by a third party (usually the government itself after the fact) then any problems will come back to the lender or borrower to enjoy and deal with. The concern expressed here is that, just as happened in the GFC, the financial system may not be efficient enough to unwind such contracts quickly enough. Central banks have worked very hard to monitor and to improve the efficiencly of the financial system but Yellen, Carney and many others continue to urge caution in declaring victory. And given the large continuing gap between 'normal' and current monetary conditions in all countries it is clear that significant financial system risks still remain.

IMHO one of the major problems is the sluggish pace of global investment and GDP growth which again in my opinion is increasingly because politically inspired economic sanctions are confusing the pattern of investment opportunities and therefore the demand for capital - seemingly locking in this very extended period of low interest rates. So the 'news' in this story is a new piece of evidence for the larger body of existing evidence. Debt in itself is not a problem - net net there is no debt on Earth since the borrowing and lending add up to the same number (opposite signs). What is relevant is the institutional arrangements for managing the scale of potential defaults.
 
 
  • Comment #3
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  • Sep 19, 2017 1:14am Sep 19, 2017 1:14am
  •  mmforexinfo
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Member | 305 Comments
Quoting webguy7
Disliked
Is this what made the Canadian Dollar plummet at 2pm EST (18:00 GMT) on 9/18/17? I've been trying to figure what happened.
Ignored
Me too and this took a couple of pips from me...
 
 
  • Comment #4
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 2:27am Sep 19, 2017 2:27am
  •  Namli
  • | Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member | 90 Comments
Quoting AnniLi
Disliked
Every loan has a lender and a borrower - no matter what you call it. Each lender and borrower takes on the responsibilities inherent in the loan contract. Provided neither side is underwrittten by a third party (usually the government itself after the fact) then any problems will come back to the lender or borrower to enjoy and deal with. The concern expressed here is that, just as happened in the GFC, the financial system may not be efficient enough to unwind such contracts quickly enough. Central banks have worked very hard to monitor and to improve...
Ignored
You are saying that debt in itself is not a problem : but this is not true when debt is created with leverage. A loan is created based on a collateral. But a debt created with a high leverage, is a time bomb regardless of the collateral because the value of that collateral can erode quickly . The key is leverage not debt. It is not as simple as a it was before then there was a borrower and a lender . This derivatives are kind of a spider net connecting the whole system to each other , that's why it is creating a systematic risk. I believe the world should get rid of all kind of derivatives except the very basic forms like commodity futures . And I believe governments should not carry any debt.
 
3
  • Comment #5
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 6:06am Sep 19, 2017 6:06am
  •  AnniLi
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2015 | 2212 Comments
You have some learning to do. A mortgage is leverage. The real problem is laziness in entering into contracts.
 
 
  • Comment #6
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 6:14am Sep 19, 2017 6:14am
  •  WhiteMouseFX
  • | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Eyes on the big moves :-P | 340 Comments
BOOOMMMMMM!
Hey buddy, let's grab some Pips!
 
 
  • Comment #7
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 6:15am Sep 19, 2017 6:15am
  •  WhiteMouseFX
  • | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Eyes on the big moves :-P | 340 Comments
Which country will be next?
Hey buddy, let's grab some Pips!
 
 
  • Comment #8
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 7:19am Sep 19, 2017 7:19am
  •  Namli
  • | Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member | 90 Comments
Quoting AnniLi
Disliked
You have some learning to do. A mortgage is leverage. The real problem is laziness in entering into contracts.
Ignored
Not knowing me and what I know shouldn't make you lazy to write these sentences. A mortgage is a contract. Leverage comes into play when the bank says you can have the house without any downpayment or just a fraction of the original price. It is not laziness. These people are crazy hardworking and they love making money and they are smart and creative to create contracts that they can sell as if these are safe havens. But there are some many lope holes in the system that leaves the door open for such people . Maybe it is the laziness of regulators. But then think about what happened to regulators after 2008 ? Almost all of them kept their seats and they put all the blame to bankers , hedge fund managers etc.. There are bigger problems which we can discuss here but about this subject I am where I were.
 
 
  • Comment #9
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 8:29am Sep 19, 2017 8:29am
  •  NewtonsCash
  • Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 2580 Comments
Quoting WhiteMouseFX
Disliked
Which country will be next?
Ignored
UK ....same Central Banker ......Oooooops
 
 
  • Comment #10
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 10:54am Sep 19, 2017 10:54am
  •  rotherwell
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 104 Comments
if you put £1 into a bank, they can in theory loan out £10, there is no equilibrium in some parts of these markets, why do you think most brokers over leverage accounts?
scale in, scale out
 
 
  • Comment #11
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:41pm Sep 19, 2017 12:41pm
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Quoting AnniLi
Disliked
You have some learning to do. A mortgage is leverage. .
Ignored
How does that work.. ?
 
 
  • Comment #12
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:48pm Sep 19, 2017 12:48pm
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Be good if Financial Post gave direct link to the BIS report.
Im not really interested in their opinions.
I am in the facts uncovered by BIS economists Report.
 
1
  • Comment #13
  • Quote
  • Sep 19, 2017 8:46pm Sep 19, 2017 8:46pm
  •  exofabulous
  • | Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Member | 54 Comments
Quoting AnniLi
Disliked
You have some learning to do. A mortgage is leverage. The real problem is laziness in entering into contracts.
Ignored
i agree governments in debt dont make sense every dollar they spend cost them 2 dollar just rework banking to give gov power to loan out to a 1/5 of the market for 5-7% and then only use the earnings from lending or if no ones borrowing build a bridge and maybe even trumps wall by lending t to yourself and paying it off. There is no inflation your using the same system as banking now you just cut out the middle man and put the gov back up top of money not behind borrowing but lending, building assets and investing in technology aka universities, if they go into debt refinance them with shares that entitle the holder to a portion of the governments yearly revenue namely 2% and so the more shares sold the less each holder gets, but it involves the public so they will vote better if they are investing in the new government and get a new government.
 
 
  • Comment #14
  • Quote
  • Sep 20, 2017 12:01am Sep 20, 2017 12:01am
  •  WhiteMouseFX
  • | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Eyes on the big moves :-P | 340 Comments
Not my words: "The best predict is the past behavior".

Every country which had/is having aggressive economic growth rate will have also an aggressive level of correction at some point. This is unavoidable because the elements sacrificed to push the economy up, will need to be compensated later. There's no escape. What directly pulls the economy into a correction zone or in some cases to a crisis due to a snow ball effect.
Hey buddy, let's grab some Pips!
 
1
  • Comment #15
  • Quote
  • Sep 20, 2017 12:54pm Sep 20, 2017 12:54pm
  •  NewtonsCash
  • Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 2580 Comments
Quoting WhiteMouseFX
Disliked
Not my words: "The best predict is the past behavior". Every country which had/is having aggressive economic growth rate will have also an aggressive level of correction at some point. This is unavoidable because the elements sacrificed to push the economy up, will need to be compensated later. There's no escape. What directly pulls the economy into a correction zone or in some cases to a crisis due to a snow ball effect.
Ignored
Or as Sir Isaac once wisely said "Each and every action has an equal and opposite reaction" ... Well, we've had the action - MASSIVE Stimulus - lets have a look at how much that house is worth after the reaction shall we
 
 
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  • Posted: Sep 18, 2017 10:36pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 15  /  Views: 7,011
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