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  • Euro Shorts Better Give Up Before It's Too Late

    From bloomberg.com

    The euro has had an impressive rally since mid-April, including a surge last week that took it to its highest level against the dollar since May 2016. The logical question now is whether the run is over, especially after the currency’s softness this week in the face of some strong euro-zone economic data. Based on market fundamentals that have led analysts to rethink their pessimistic views and technicals that convey corporate hedging strategies, the euro is likely to strengthen further. Fundamentals have been supportive for the euro since the beginning of 2017, when many analysts were calling for the currency to ... (full story)

Trade what you see in your timeframe.
Don't listen to paid bull....
lol, ridiculous, dollar bulls are set up for the next charge! possibly big gap this weekend on eur usd, and dropping like a rock to 1:08 levels.
What a.....?!
Thank you, Bloomberg. You've now given the go-ahead to SHORT the Euro. I suspect the gap at 1.07-1.08 to be filled. For newbies - "news" reports like this are deliberate false-flags. The big boys want to go short, but they need buyers, so they tell people that EUR will go up, thereby attracting sheep for the purpose of shearing.
" Fundamentals have been supportive for the euro since the beginning of 2017..."

Baloney! Brexit, the migrant crisis, debtor nations like Greece, what "supportive" fundamentals? Again, this is a false-flag. Otherwise, the good folks at Bloomie are smoking crack.
love the comments here
very entertaining! I am bearish on the Euro.Much of the "good news" is already priced in.
What a load of trash, this article. The author should be ashamed of churning out such a piece of shit. Makes for a very poor journalism...
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With price action like this you can see there really are sellers up here not buyers. The chart will not lie but articles like this are misleading and designed to get you on the wrong side of the market
EU Weekly chart
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Bloomberg says buy, so its time to sell the hell out of it.
Quoting Hurst
{image} With price action like this you can see there really are sellers up here not buyers. The chart will not lie but articles like this are misleading and designed to get you on the wrong side of the market
So u mean it will be up, sir?!
No me old flower, it will be down.
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:37pm Jul 8, 2017 2:03pm | Edited at 7:37pm
I think it has VERY HIGH probability to slice & dice up before down. So becareful shorting now. maybe wait for confirmation. Try a long lmao the risk to reward in relation to the past 2 months is way greater keep the risk very small
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Edited Jul 9, 2017 8:06am Jul 8, 2017 4:20pm | Edited Jul 9, 2017 8:06am
I go with Bloommy this time cos its generally bull,any sell is retracement to gather power to jump higher.
Article sponsored by market makers? Can anyone guarantee that it would not go to 1.12 sooner or later ? I doubt it.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.66.57
The majority of the posts here in response to a Euro-bewildered Bloomberg analyst just goes to show why (if not exactly how) it is that retail traders sustain the stupefying loss rate of about 95% day in day out - of which it has to be said that there is no other human endeavour in history in which people have done so poorly (and apparently going by the comments here will continue to do even more poorly). Bloomberg is of course right (even if the analyst has not the tools to be convincing and may only just now be waking up to the reality of what is called in fractal geometry a persistent series as far as the Euro is concerned). The problem of course is with the general analytic approaches preferred by traders engaging part time in such a serious thing as trading but only willing to put in limited time and effort in mastering the market. First the market is a mathematically chaotic system underpinned by a fractal structure and as such a non random system unaffected by news in the cheap sense traders are wont to believe. But more to the point - it can only be correctly read and traded by approaches that directly comprehend the applicable math (new to industry no doubt but a fact all the same). Consider that a) In the last 28 months the Euro has sustained what in fractal geometry is called a mean reverting series (AKA Anti - Persistent Series) sustaining a fairly well defined range in MN (please look at that chart frame to see what is meant). b) Currently and as a result of that fractal structure we are phased up and must (MUST) reach if nothing else the upper limit of the said range before we even contemplate a turn (the market is cyclical though aperiodic but aperiodic or not cycles complete that is the nature of a chaotic system) so one can calculate a return line rationally to be in the range of 1.17 - 1.19. c) But fractal geometry is also very specific about the implications of such a structure (read up the Hurst Exponent as conceived by Mandelbrot to see why) and this is the more critical in this case given the scale at which the structure has been observed (Mandelbrot also showed incontrovertibly that markets scale). So markets actually follow a sequence that can be read by chaos and certainly if Mandelbrot were wrong in any material particular insofar as the mechanics of markets are concerned we would not at all see the fractalities we now read based on his genius so accurately. I have maintained without being wrong even once - about the state of the system (Euro market) since it obeyed math first month of this year and I at no time engaged in guessing - because in fact chaos is a science which though arcane to most is in fact intellectually accessible and now easily applied. Therefore the immediate (i.e. largest market objective) remains a high in the range stated if not higher. Of course most traders are even not concerned with accurate analysis let alone appropriate analytic approaches. Just dreamers thinking they can pick up millions on luck alone (gamblers for the most part). But this business is not about luck at all - you got to know the math to the core.

The Crow (-_-) Market Chaotist
Quoting Hurst
{image} With price action like this you can see there really are sellers up here not buyers. The chart will not lie but articles like this are misleading and designed to get you on the wrong side of the market
i could not put it better myself. News articles like this make a great indicator to do the opposite. Keep up the false news so we can all keep laughing.
Hey Crow,
If you could pin-point such market movements you would be a billionaire by now. From an admittedly cursory reading of your Hurst Exponent anything of a time frame of one day or less has an average reading of .5 which means markets are completely random. Only very large time frame might have a higher reading, which means they are more likely to trend. But this is far from certain and highly unpredictable. For eg, look at a daily EUR/USD from NOV2015 to APRIL2016. It too looked like it was ready to go up and up, only for it to make new lows. Price now is close to those April2016 highs. Is it going to go higher or lower? Frankly I have no idea. I think most people discount the importance of fundamentals. Sure price may respect a previous level, but if there is enough momentum backed by fundamentals, forget it, it will keep flying. Anyway if it works for you good luck to you. But with the authority with which you speak you should be seriously filthy rich by now.
Quoting PharLap
Hey Crow, If you could pin-point such market movements you would be a billionaire by now. From an admittedly cursory reading of your Hurst Exponent anything of a time frame of one day or less has an average reading of .5 which means markets are completely random. Only very large time frame might have a higher reading, which means they are more likely to trend. But this is far from certain and highly unpredictable. For eg, look at a daily EUR/USD from NOV2015 to APRIL2016. It too looked like it was ready to go up and up, only for it to make new lows....
I think,more likely to go higher based on cyclic repetition on monthly chart.if it doesn't,then its the first time such cycle would be broken.But I doubt it being broken .There is order in the universe and in the market.
Quoting FlowCycler
{quote} I think,more likely to go higher based on cyclic repetition on monthly chart.if it doesn't,then its the first time such cycle would be broken.But I doubt it being broken .There is order in the universe and in the market.
It will go higher for sure, but the question is whether there will be correction and to which level or price goes straight to 1.20.
  • Post #21
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:59am Jul 9, 2017 6:34am | Edited at 6:59am
Euro is still in range bound, run to 1.16 - 1.18 zone is inevitable during July or August.
If more US news on growth, then, speculation of Fed more actions on hike in 2018 will push eur-usd down to run lower end of the range.
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  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.17.31
Quoting JakubSzalaFX
{quote} It will go higher for sure, but the question is whether there will be correction and to which level or price goes straight to 1.20.
From my reading of the fractures of MN (i.e. time frames to the left of the unit MN) my sense is that we are in fact at a stage where the cyclic trend is accelerating (as is usual near the objective). Technically (i.e. employing chaos math to explain) this is what is going on: a) the unit being in a mean reverting series implies that the fractures (fractions colloquially) to its left are all in a persistent series b) in a persistent series the counter flows are extremely short relative to the main thrust so for instance if you looked at WK1 and observe the so called pull backs (counter flows) you might gain the sense I have which is that we are in a free run up until exhaustion circa the range top (see how drops in that and other time frames are cancelled rather quickly). My thoughts then are to hold any up trades until about the 1.20 level that you suggest knowing that pull backs or corrections would have relatively shallow ranges and certainly negligible impact on direction at this time. In other words, we have a market in which we can be sure of the space in direction and of course we can also me sure of the shortness of counter flows because of the fractal structure in operation to the left of MN. So I would not worry much about drops at this time and would even guess that we might hit amplitude within a week or two then we can start talking about the fall which by my modelling is certain about the return line you have suggested. Go for it is what the math suggests (at least to about the 1.20).

The Crow (-_-) Market Chaotist
Quoting Jack168
Euro is still in range bound, run to 1.16 - 1.18 zone is inevitable during July or August. If more US news on growth, then, speculation of Fed more actions on hike in 2018 will push eur-usd down to run lower end of the range. {image}
I don't negate Euro to go towards 1.16 or higher but definitely not in July or August, mate. What's more probable in the summer is a deeper correction. Euro has already discounted all the positive news and it effectively run out of fuel temporarily. There's more usd positive events on the horizon these days.
Quoting JakubSzalaFX
{quote} It will go higher for sure, but the question is whether there will be correction and to which level or price goes straight to 1.20.
Be so kind mate and give just one reason why Euro would be going to 1.20? (unless you're talking about 2018/2019 time frame)
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.17.31
Quoting PharLap
Hey Crow, If you could pin-point such market movements you would be a billionaire by now. From an admittedly cursory reading of your Hurst Exponent anything of a time frame of one day or less has an average reading of .5 which means markets are completely random. Only very large time frame might have a higher reading, which means they are more likely to trend. But this is far from certain and highly unpredictable. For eg, look at a daily EUR/USD from NOV2015 to APRIL2016. It too looked like it was ready to go up and up, only for it to make new lows....
Hi PharLap - I understand your points and have ready answers for all but space here would not allow much comment. You could however search the web for a paper called "The Chaology of Markets" - that should provide you with the sort of answers you deserve seeing that you are knowledgeable about the topic of chaos and markets. Best wishes.

The Crow (-_-) Market Chaotist

BTW: I just got delivery from the UK of a specially designed system for real time fractal analysis of markets (note that the application of the Hurst Exponent, rules of Lacunarity the counterpart factor to fractal dimension, the Lyaponuv Exponent, etc have to be specially adapted to fit real time market analysis. Mandelbrot and co were involved with tedious time series analysis of data sometimes longer than 30 years. But traders have to deal with fast nonmonotonic sequences in real time and so trading models (as opposed to risk analysis and other projective models) need very special adaptations for real time readings of the far much shorter sequences we have to deal with (in real time). So a billionaire? We shall see. For now let us trade.
Dissertation here by Dr. Crow reminds me of Greenspan's annual meetings with US congress. After Mr. Greenspan finish giving his hours long dissertation, everyone goes over and over to analyze what Mr. Greenspan said. Typically it turned out that he said nothing. He took no position one way or the other yet people thought he was a genius.

Market movements has nothing to do with any math or logic. Simple truth is that markets moves in the direction where the people (banking syndicates) running this casino end up making money quarter after quarter.
Quoting effix02
{quote} Be so kind mate and give just one reason why Euro would be going to 1.20? (unless you're talking about 2018/2019 time frame)
1. Simple, reversal and end of the USD bullish cycle. Once the cycle changes, no one can stop it. You can bomb Wall Street, City or whatever, but the cycle needs to reach its final target.
2. Macro data show that the EZ is in upturn/boom and expectations are anchored extremely high. Before everyone realise that CPI, wages, etc. will not rise (in fact might drop), the EUR will be rising fueled by irrational euphoria and rising bond yields. Why do I not believe in rising CPI? The US and Japan are a perfect example. One may ask what about the UK? The answer is pretty clear: it is caused by external factors which may fade away in a month or so. Even I see a scenario where CPI in the UK drops sharply below 1.5-1.0 in few months.
3. Draghi announced (unofficially) tapering and other governors seem to be supporting his words.

What is the time frame? Do not know. I would expect a deeper correction, at least to 1.1250. Below 1.11 would be highly appreciated.
Guys, what a lively discussion

Can i add two cents - all this doesn't matter.
The price can go up down up down x20 times and end it 1.14 a month from now So??

On each frame it's different.
I have some charts in my journal if someone cares to look.

I know twenty morons on FF that can't trade for cheap breakfast.....but write 30 posts a day.
Hurst fractals, infinite 7 waves.....Who cares????

Trade what you see.
Then take profit, don't be greedy, sleep, do it again!!!
🍻
Mr Crow or Professor 'Chaos' you remind me of a mad professor I worked with who provided solutions to problems not practical in the real world. Might sound good in theory but often the more complicated you make things the more likely you are to fail.
Quoting Pip-Miner
Mr Crow or Professor 'Chaos' you remind me of a mad professor I worked with who provided solutions to problems not practical in the real world. Might sound good in theory but often the more complicated you make things the more likely you are to fail.
Lols,some things complex and work fine, some simple work fine as well. Results is the end game.Let's see how they all play out.Cheers!
Quoting Davit
love the comments here very entertaining! I am bearish on the Euro.Much of the "good news" is already priced in.
Euro against what currency? It is important to take into cognizance the strength of Euro in comparison to the counter currency you are trading.

Going by Monthly currency analysis for the month of July, the following are the strength of the Eight (8) major currencies in their descending order:

CAD, USD, EUR, CHF, NZD, GBP, AUD AND JPY.

From the above, you can draw up your conclusion!
title translation:
Euro Longs Better Switch Sides Before It's Too Late
Quoting JakubSzalaFX
{quote} 1. Simple, reversal and end of the USD bullish cycle. Once the cycle changes, no one can stop it. You can bomb Wall Street, City or whatever, but the cycle needs to reach its final target. 2. Macro data show that the EZ is in upturn/boom and expectations are anchored extremely high. Before everyone realise that CPI, wages, etc. will not rise (in fact might drop), the EUR will be rising fueled by irrational euphoria and rising bond yields. Why do I not believe in rising CPI? The US and Japan are a perfect example. One may ask what about the...
Thanks. Agree with you that irrational euphoria and rising bond yields will keep on supporting EUR even though both price and wage inflation is subdued and likely to go even lower. The reason I don't believe in 1.2 any time soon is that actual tapering when it finally happens will be very gradual in nature far from what the overenthusiastic euro bulls are waiting for.
The real reason EURUSD shoot up on Jun 27 or so was because Jun30 was the quarter end and banks were holding losing positions. They had to shoot it up and hold it there thru Friday so that they can show a profit for the quarter. Now they will slowly unwind their positions as some people will be tempted to buy thru sponsored articles. As banks can unload their positions and there are enough longs, price will go down first slowly and then a major move to 1.12 or lower. This is how the game is played. After EURUSD went so high, ECB is getting nervous and one after other official came out and said that market misinterpreted Mr. Draghi's comment.
Let's not forget that some banks (DB) came into crisis with undervalued €.
This "recovery" will take time.
Thanks Crow,
I don't know if I am smart enough to understand it but I will look at the paper you mentioned. It's a fascinating topic and it's great if you can make money out of it. Myself, I have always preferred the simple over complex but I am always open to new ideas.
Cheers
Quoting Guest
The majority of the posts here in response to a Euro-bewildered Bloomberg analyst just goes to show why (if not exactly how) it is that retail traders sustain the stupefying loss rate of about 95% day in day out chart frame to see what is meant). b) Currently and as a result e most part). But this business is not about luck at all - you got to know the math to the core. The Crow (-_-) Market Chaotist
Lol I usually just chill on post like this but mate wtf you on about? With all that chaos going on in your head can you even realize a simple reversal pattern even if it slapped you in the face?
Quoting calebfx
{quote} Lol I usually just chill on post like this but mate wtf you on about? With all that chaos going on in your head can you even realize a simple reversal pattern even if it slapped you in the face?
LOL. He was banned years ago but keeps coming back to troll us.
From quickly browsing two of the author's previous articles it really does look like he writes "hit" pieces to try and get enough money on the opposite side in order for the big move to take place.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...et-frustration - In this article he doesn't outright say the US stock market is going to go down but he is very negative and strongly suggests the next move is down. On 1/25/17 the SPX was at 2,298.37, today (7/10/17) the SPX is at 2,427.43.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...for-oil-prices - In this article he predicts that before and during the summer driving season the price of oil will move much higher from the current price. On 1-20-17 the price of oil was $55.75. Today (7/10/17) the price of oil is $44.54.
Hahahaha... Such a BS! Nobody believes this crap! Fasten your seatbelts, we'll probably see EURUSD diving to between 1.11xx and 1.10xx soon.
The guys just want to push everyone to one side why market takes the other direction. I sometimes feel that there are either people trading for these guys or they're traders themselves. I do not believe all these information. The chart will finally tell us where the price is going. EURO weakness depends on the pairs and the technical ground. While one may believe that Euro is gaining strength against another currency, on the technical ground Euro and CHF are already showing weakness against the AUD. Let them keep all these to themselves and let us look at our charts. EURUSD is currently on a key strong resistance level, 1.14553
9jatrader,

You are exactly correct. The "news posts" at FF are the actual fake news. They hope to sucker retail traders into being on the wrong side. They talk about nonexistent positive fundamentals, conveniently failing to mention Britain is leaving the sinking ship and half the EU countries are flat-broke. Positive fundamentals,indeed ...what a joke.

EURUSD will be filling the gap at 1.07 before summer's end. That's 700 pips on the short side.
April 24:
Quoting gravitist
Gaps are usually filled, so there might be some shorting opportunities - I think such a pullback is likely , considering LePen and Macron both want Frexit
June 1:
Quoting gravitist
Commercials are heavily short Euro futures (from last Friday's COT report). So this rally has been fueled by large specs. Expect eur/usd to fall all the way to chart gap. Gaps get filled (old market saying).
Seems to me that Gravy is 700 pips down and desperately trying to catch a top and hoping the gap will be filled one day. There will be a day that he's right, but will he still have an account ?

Bottom line: Gravy is a great contra indicator, use him accordingly.
Quoting barkie
April 24: {quote} June 1: {quote} Seems to me that Gravy is 700 pips down and desperately trying to catch a top and hoping the gap will be filled one day. There will be a day that he's right, but will he still have an account ? Bottom line: Gravy is a great contra indicator, use him accordingly.
I was surprised to read your quote from @gravitist (April24th)..
"I think such a pullback is likely , considering LePen and Macron both want Frexit."

In analysing and weighing political fundamentals in the above case he seems to have been totally unaware that Macron (election winner) was and is a heavy Pro-EU/EZ supporter.. the exact OPPOSITE to Frexit.
I think in the case however, another member in the thread, did correct his misconception.

Ive noticed from other threads, the poster is not well briefed on European/EU/EZ or GBP/Brexit fundamentals.
So, you were all wrong but the crow (and bloomberg of course).
Quoting FlowCycler
I go with Bloommy this time cos its generally bull,any sell is retracement to gather power to jump higher.
Been doing that,now its at 1.17xx, more room up .
Quoting FlowCycler
{quote} I think,more likely to go higher based on cyclic repetition on monthly chart.if it doesn't,then its the first time such cycle would be broken.But I doubt it being broken .There is order in the universe and in the market.
Technically, should keep pushing up for more than two years and probably beyond 1.25, will be looking for retracements in between the up moves.
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Jul 7, 2017 10:47am
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 47  /  Views: 16,515