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  • What Is a “Confluence” of Support or Resistance?

    From dailypriceaction.com

    This is an excellent question, and the answer can improve your trading performance in a big way. But like all things, it takes practice, patience, and discipline to get it right. According to Merriam-Webster, the word confluence means: A coming or flowing together, meeting, or gathering at one point. The flowing together of two or more streams Obviously, we’re not dealing with streams here. But the first definition sums things up nicely and the second provides a visual for us to refer to as we progress through this post. In the world of trading, the term confluence refers to the intersection of two or more key ... (full story)

that's the taint of the markets
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Its a term used to describe a place where most newbies will place an order thinking it means something when in effect they are just giving their money to the smart money that realise here is where the dumb money enter.
What makes this article pure crap is the following, firstly the trend is up so only a complete bonehead would try to fight the trend. The market is stuck in a channel moving up. Price likes to hit the top of the channel before moving down. The primary analysis here is flawed, it is a failure to accurately account for the structure of price that WILL render this level completely ineffective. The example here is poor, my guess is the guy that wrote this is about 3-4 years into his trading career and has yet to make a profit. However he will still make up articles about technical analysis that he thinks works, although he himself fails to make a profit using it.

WARNING ARTICLES LIKE THIS WILL HELP YOU FAIL AS A TRADER

Unless you read the context of the market you will fail.

1.3465 would be a far better area in my view
Quoting Hurst
What makes this article pure crap is the following,
The article was describing confluence, which it did.

Quoting Hurst
my guess is the guy that wrote this is about 3-4 years into his trading career
He states that he started trading in 2007, the article was written in 2017.

Stroking your ego in public is about as acceptable as stroking other parts of your body.
Why is a Raven like a Writing Desk?
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The key to remember is that the market is full of "signals" whether buy or sell...it is up to the trader to decide which group of signals to hold significance too...never put too much weight on just one or 2 signals...
Am with Hurst and I understood where he is coming from..truly the trend in the chat he posted is up and only a dunce will wanna fight that(I used to be a forwx dunce before)..price really has no relationship with trendlines even though it work sometimes....if anyone really wanna grasp the market, it's best he first spend his time understanding market structure and all
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hidden

Look back in history and weep, its all there. Also read the wheat reports and cotton reports before you start acting like a fool.
Quoting Hurst
Hidden
On the contrary Hurst, you went on the attack against the author and his method because it is different to yours and when I bring up your own inaccuracies you play the victim?
Be a man..

You seem to be of the misunderstanding I am attacking cyclical trading? Nothing could be further from the truth. Have you thought that the maths relating to fibs on higher TFs' might be related to the maths of cyclical trading? Or do you believe various concepts of maths exist independant of one another?

It seems any variation from the method (or expression of a method) you have researched and/or been mentored on is dismissed as useless.

And you infer I'M the blind hard head? lol...
From Berlin??

Ok...
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting disker23
Hidden

Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} On the contrary Hurst, you went on the attack against the author and his method because it is different to yours and when I bring up your own inaccuracies you play the victim? Be a man.. You seem to be of the misunderstanding I am attacking cyclical trading? Nothing could be further from the truth. Have you thought that the maths relating to fibs on higher TFs' might be related to the maths of cyclical trading? Or do you believe various concepts of maths exist independant of one another? It seems any variation from the method (or expression...
he´s a little bit confused - not only with his "predictions". i have another count (one out of four). stopped clock phenomenon, perfect counter indicator...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-25/it-s-a-scorcher-dusty-wheat-fields-spell-peak-for-global-glut

Wheat outlook I rest my case
Quoting disker23
Hidden
Thread Starter @disker23:"Leverage, can someone explain it to me?"
Quoting disker23
I've been a Futures trader for years, and this was actually my first week trading FX. ...When i say leverage I mean to say: How does your account size affect how many lots you can use? ....
if anyone can give an adequate explanation I'd greatly appreciate it. Thanks
Pls find equation below... Hope of this of help.
Attached Image
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Thread Starter @disker23:"Leverage, can someone explain it to me?" {quote}
i have a shovel cliff
ONE MUST LEARN, DO IT AND IT WILL BE KIND TO YOU
Quoting Aussi
{quote} i have a shovel cliff
Shame on you Aussi..
Im absolutely not taking the P*ss.
Just trying to help.

Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Shame on you Aussi.. Im absolutely not taking the P*ss. Just trying to help.
if you speak to kerry-anne she says i have a bit of the devil in me , but i dont know what shes talking about i am sure you are tared with the same brush
ONE MUST LEARN, DO IT AND IT WILL BE KIND TO YOU
Quoting deltaone
{quote} he´s a little bit confused - not only with his "predictions". i have another count (one out of four). stopped clock phenomenon, perfect counter indicator...
You won't be poking fun when the Russian come knocking at your door looking for some sugar and a curry wurst.
Quoting Hurst
{quote} You won't be poking fun when the Russian come knocking at your door looking for some sugar and a curry wurst.
russians? i don´t live in charlottengrad. currywurst with sugar? oh dear... you must be deranged because you´re starving due to your lousy predictions. only four days left and it´ll be one out of five...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
Attached Image


This more fun than SKY Sports..
Just so that my Teutonic friend can keep a proper score.

Here is a trade on on the footsie

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9987647#post9987647

top in the sp500 from 20 to 22nd June 2017

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=676088&page=2

both seem to be working. Or are we only counting the failed ones?
Quoting Hurst
Its a term used to describe a place where most newbies will place an order thinking it means something when in effect they are just giving their money to the smart money that realise here is where the dumb money enter.
Well it's Mike Haran again. Did you get tired of your Commercial Member status? How many FF incarnations does this make for you now? I can think of at least three.
Support - following your football team
Resistance - not accepting that your team may not be good
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
Quoting Hurst
Just so that my Teutonic friend can keep a proper score. Here is a trade on on the footsie https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9987647#post9987647 top in the sp500 from 20 to 22nd June 2017 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=676088&page=2 both seem to be working. Or are we only counting the failed ones?
lol - teutonic is good. prussian would be better. thanks for the links, the second one is not working. so i´ll count your ftse short trade (no tp, no sl, no timeline, please add information) and above mentioned "all markets sell-off, starting june 17 lasting till december 17" as number 5 and 6 because they are market related, the rest is by far too esoteric.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=676088&page=2

second link just for you.
Quoting Hurst
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=676088&page=2 second link just for you.
rofl - commercial member now; have you tried to sell your predictions? muahahahaha

ok, thanks. although it´s just a variation of number 6, i´ll count it as prediction number 7.
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fortis fortuna adiuvat
I did not sell or offer anything to anyone, but no doubt some of you trolls reported me. Not that I give a damm. No one like a visionary, especially not the ignorant.
lower class speach, typical for frustrated wannabe-traders. enjoy your time in the commercial section.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
It's irony something sadly you won't understand "Ironie" in German. You know I will enjoy my time there very much I appreciate your words of encouragement, that's another example for you as well.
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sounds like breaking wind
ONE MUST LEARN, DO IT AND IT WILL BE KIND TO YOU
aaaaaand it hits the center of the fan
Quoting Hurst
What makes this article pure crap is the following, firstly the trend is up so only a complete bonehead would try to fight the trend. The market is stuck in a channel moving up. Price likes to hit the top of the channel before moving down. The primary analysis here is flawed, it is a failure to accurately account for the structure of price that WILL render this level completely ineffective. The example here is poor, my guess is the guy that wrote this is about 3-4 years into his trading career and has yet to make a profit. However he will still...
Sorry but I didn't understand what you said... did you spent a minute to look at the chart example??? The trend is UP??? First I think you need to check your eyes. And by your comment "this article pure crap" shows me that you probably don't know or understand Confluence in trading. Or maybe you just read the article and misunderstood the content. Try reading it again and maybe you can improve your trading and make some money.
Quoting Hurst
Hidden

You again vomiting your frustrations... you must think you are the top trader in the game. But your frustration is understandable... you probably are trying to get some money from the markets but sure you are giving money to all of us.
I strongly recommend you to go back to basics and use more your practice account. Whatever is in the article is right, a lot professional traders(not like you) use confluence to identify entries and guess what... they are PROFESSIONALS.
Quoting Hurst
I did not sell or offer anything to anyone, but no doubt some of you trolls reported me. Not that I give a damm. No one like a visionary, especially not the ignorant.
Sorry... Are you calling yourself a visionary???? hahahahahahahaha... after all crap I read from you you should call yourself a blindonary... c'mon man... get a life....
Quoting mmforexinfo
{quote} You again vomiting your frustrations... you must think you are the top trader in the game. But your frustration is understandable... you probably are trying to get some money from the markets but sure you are giving money to all of us. I strongly recommend you to go back to basics and use more your practice account. Whatever is in the article is right, a lot professional traders(not like you) use confluence to identify entries and guess what... they are PROFESSIONALS.
Prove it, simply post 10 charts before the fact, if you get 7 out of 10 I will admit I was wrong and leave the forum.
Quoting Hurst
{quote} Prove it, simply post 10 charts before the fact, if you get 7 out of 10 I will admit I was wrong and leave the forum.
Sorry but I don't have to prove anything, the market is proving it and by the way I don't know how long you have been trading (you may be new in trading) but if you didn't learn about Confluence so far I am not be the one to teach you.
Quoting mmforexinfo
{quote} Sorry but I don't have to prove anything, the market is proving it and by the way I don't know how long you have been trading (you may be new in trading) but if you didn't learn about Confluence so far I am not be the one to teach you.
I am not seeking to shove my ideas down anyone's throat. However, if you post up an idea or method then back it up. Charts in hindsight you can make anything work. Trading is about trading the present not the past. I can't be bothered means you have nothing to show.
It doesn't really matter whether there is a confluence or not. If price is going to reverse from the level, it will reverse regardless of confluence. After breakout from a level, there is a pullback most of the times. Sometimes price comes back and bounces from the level again while in some case it reverses early.

Person who wrote article talks about giving him confidence with "Confluence" and fibs.

Quote
But I do have one rule when using the Fibonacci tool; call it a caveat.
That rule is that I never use a Fibonacci study on a blank chart. In other words, my goal isnt to find new horizontal areas of support or resistance.
Instead, I use it to confirm and even fine tune levels Ive already drawn. That doesnt mean I remove a support or resistance if it doesnt match up with one of the Fibonacci levels.
It does, however, give me a bit more confidence when I see one or more of my predetermined...


So you see, he does not trust the levels that price will reverse from there. He tries to stay confidence through fibs which are random levels and doesn't exist anywhere. Fibs confirming key levels lol.

Oh and this:

Quote
Again, its a paradox. Theres an old saying that if you go looking for something youll find it. What this means is that if you try too hard to find something your mind will appease you by showing you that very thing, irrespective of whether or not it actually exists.
As a trader, thats a big problem. The best way to avoid falling into this trap is to stay patient and always second guess your work.

Yes be patient and lose slowly because you are trading locations where there is no sense of reversal.

Now he also tells to prevent screen time which already makes him an amateur trader.

Quote
One rule that can help curb your minds appetite for playing tricks is never to spend more than 20 or 30 minutes in front of your charts at a time. After this amount of sitting and staring at price action, its usually a good idea to take a 5 to 10-minute break.
To clarify, Im referring to the time spent identifying key levels. Once you have these levels drawn, it should take you no more than 20 to 30 minutes each day to scan your charts for favorable setups.
If nothing catches your attention right away,...

There is not a single bank trader in this world that spends 20 or 30 minutes in front of his charts. Mind doesn't play tricks if you are going for more screen time, it will help you increase analyze strength so in future you will already know that this has happened in the past with me now its happening again.

There is a difference between a professional trader and a wannabe pro. Even I can tell whether resistance/support will hold or not prior to the breakout by just watching price behavior and momentum inside it. If you skip screen time you reduce your learning curve and speed. You will barely notice any improvements in your trading. Sure you will but 50 years when you get retired.

Quote
Perhaps the best areas to watch for opportunities are those formed by a trend line, a horizontal level, and a Fibonacci. When you find such a combination, its usually a good idea to keep that pair and level on your watch list.

This statement proves that he is currently researching and building his skills. Perhaps, eh ?

Whatever Hurst has mentioned is correct and I support him. Any newbie who will read this article will think this is a pro way of trade but in fact its an amateur trap.

Oh and last of all, horizontal level that is marked in the snap shot is not a key level. A key level is one where are many bounces so its strength intensifies and price can be analyzed better. Its a very weak level where probability of reversal is low. Higher stop loss will work on that.

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2 Trades would work, 1 at R1 and 2nd at R2 with low-medium stop loss. But price reversed early this time just as I mentioned in my first paragraph.
Oh by the way before anyone asks how it was possible to get in this trend, here is how you would've got in.

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Both bounces indicate nice rejection which was more than enough as a signal to get in. I see no "Confluence" here. In fact the level was defined as price moved, so I don't even need past data to analyze the upcoming. Whether price will hold resistance or break it, can be told just by watching price behavior and its strength. Simple.

Spend 20-30 minutes daily analyzing charts and you will miss these opportunities.
Totally agree with the above poster, its why I attacked the person posting this as a method, all the reasons given above are very solid and valid. There is also no substitute for screen time.

I also post my call on the SP500

"
Would just like to add that my forward looking indicator suggests that the SP500 is due for a 600 to 1000 point move to the downside I would expect the down move to occur by the 21/22nd of this month so 20-22nd June 2017.

Just to add that if you use an indicator here rather than blindly trading a sell you actually wait for the signal to occur knowing that the cycle I expected is actually happening. This is what I meant by using an indicator in the right place.

I would also like to see a big push into the cycle up and if I am correct the two price levels I would expect the turn are 2454.50 or 2465.25 cash market o the SP500

Posted on the 17th June.

So to all the trolls here, you cannot argue with facts.
Quoting Hurst
Totally agree with the above poster, its why I attacked the person posting this as a method, all the reasons given above are very solid and valid. There is also no substitute for screen time. I also post my call on the SP500 " Would just like to add that my forward looking indicator suggests that the SP500 is due for a 600 to 1000 point move to the downside I would expect the down move to occur by the 21/22nd of this month so 20-22nd June 2017. Just to add that if you use an indicator here rather than blindly trading a sell you actually wait...
the only troll here is you, blowing your own trumpet much too early. this is just a dip atm, no crash of -600 or -1000 points.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
It looks like we have another rahulkghosh
Quoting cliffedwards
{image}
like
Invest in alarm clocks
Quoting Hurst
{quote} Prove it, simply post 10 charts before the fact, if you get 7 out of 10 I will admit I was wrong and leave the forum.

How about this: a beautiful CONFLUENCE: EMA(200), Trendline and Resistance level...
See attached pic from today, 19:00 AEST
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lol, you obviously only identified the supposed trendline after the trade had manifested.. Carefully skipping two swing highs. No way you could have drawn the trendline before the market turned at that point.

However, seems the Ema and the level acted in tandem to resist price at that level.



Guys, confluence as i understand it is just basically a play on market behavior. In a sense that, some participants of the market trade mainly by looking at support and resistance or supply and demand levels, while a totally different set of traders look at long term or short term Moving averages to serve as dynamic turning points and then.... the ones who trade based on trendline touches..and lastly the candlestick/harmonic pattern traders. (Fibs are quite subjective and prone to a lot of hopeful bias so i won't include it).

so if a certain horizontal level(watched by the many S&R traders) aligns with a a major respected trendline ( watched by a large number of trendline followers) plus a large pinbar candle which cuts accros a popular MA like the 200 EMA ( for the die hard candle stick pattern and Moving average traders)............... it wouldn't be too far fetched to think that since a reasonable number of participants of the market believe that the market will turn at a certain price zone (due to their various choice of signals and strategies of course), there is a high probability that price could actually act accordingly. After all it's the forces of the market that move price.. the collective decision of the stronger side decides where prices moves next.

Of course, no amount of confluence can determine the direction of price 100% of the time... but then again no strategy can... and a real trader knows that you can be right on 40% of the time and still make a lot of money with the right risk management.
Quoting mmforexinfo
{quote} How about this: a beautiful CONFLUENCE: EMA(200), Trendline and Resistance level... See attached pic from today, 19:00 AEST {image}
And how exactly would you draw that trend line again.... Ah this would be the wait for it to move down then draw it , meanwhile go through all the MA's you can find until one matches.

Great, now I am sure you are unable to prove it.

Look at the amazing dust cover indicator I made see how price touched it then once it fell through it went flying down. Should price come back to the dust cover indicator be sure to be amazed. It works so well in hindsight, its unstoppable.

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As I am now a commercial member, you can buy my amazing hindsight trendline confluence indicator. It works 100% of the time or your money back. As used by mmforexinfo, this indicator never fails. Look how it worked in the past, nails the top and bottom to perfection every time.

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Think of all the pips you could have made. If only your broker will let you trade on past data. Important notice. You must trade with a broker that allows you to trade yesterdays market today!
Quoting Hurst
{quote} And how exactly would you draw that trend line again.... Ah this would be the wait for it to move down then draw it , meanwhile go through all the MA's you can find until one matches. Great, now I am sure you are unable to prove it. Look at the amazing dust cover indicator I made see how price touched it then once it fell through it went flying down. Should price come back to the dust cover indicator be sure to be amazed. It works so well in hindsight, its unstoppable. {image}
Honestly I am confused now. You must be really dumb or stubborn...I go for the first....But again I will tell you how to look the chart.. just remove the Trendline and.. voila... here is your confluence with the EMA 200 and Resistance level... too difficult for you???? By the way I don't need to keep searching for all the MA's.. I just use one because I know what I am doing...
You should try sometimes... It certainly will improve your trades...
Quoting Hurst
As I am now a commercial member, you can buy my amazing hindsight trendline confluence indicator. It works 100% of the time or your money back. As used by mmforexinfo, this indicator never fails. Look how it worked in the past, nails the top and bottom to perfection every time. {image} Think of all the pips you could have made. If only your broker will let you trade on past data. Important notice. You must trade with a broker that allows you to trade yesterdays market today!
Sorry but am I missing something here??? "As used by mmforexinfo, this indicator never fails"... I don't use the crap you sell.. sorry to disappointing you...The day I need something different from PA and moving averages I develop myself.. I don't buy useless crap from no one. It is not good to lie to people selling shit that does not work and using other people name pretending you have a good product. If the crap you say you sell works wonders why don't you use and be the next Forbes millionaire??? Who are you trying to pull?? I am not a pommy mate, so don't think I am foul....
Yes you are really missing the point, seriously. But don't stop I am having way to much fun.
Quoting Hurst
As I am now a commercial member, you can buy my amazing hindsight trendline confluence indicator. It works 100% of the time or your money back. As used by mmforexinfo, this indicator never fails. Look how it worked in the past, nails the top and bottom to perfection every time. {image} Think of all the pips you could have made. If only your broker will let you trade on past data. Important notice. You must trade with a broker that allows you to trade yesterdays market today!
If you are a Commercial Member then my understanding is that advertising and product promotion should be confined to your Commercial section and not pursued on News Threads.
Mods will no doubt advise if I have missed something here.
Hello Cliff, looks like you missed it too

I am in commercial as I have a twitter feed lol Read the text again.
Quoting Hurst
Hello Cliff, looks like you missed it too I am in commercial as I have a twitter feed lol Read the text again.
well, if this is the only reason... ff is a commercial enterprise. everyone who´s transferring traffic from this website harms their business goals (being payed for views) is at risk to be classified as a commercial member. this makes your posts not better, but your status questionable as long as there are MANY other members who should be classified in the same way.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
Thank you deltaone for that clarrification,
Quoting Hurst
Thank you deltaone for that clarrification,

you´re welcome - trying to be objective.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
Nice post. I just checked your site now. You have good stuffs.
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  • Posted: Jun 24, 2017 8:58pm
  • Submitted by:
     dailypa
    Category: Educational News
    Comments: 62  /  Views: 18,228