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  • Dow hits record, topping 21,000 for first time

    From cbsnews.com

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 21,000 points for the first time, with the blue-chip index reaching the milestone a scant five weeks after breaching the 20,000 mark. Stocks shot out of the gate on Wednesday, led by big gains in banks as investors expected interest rates to rise. Financial markets also seemed to take comfort in President Trump’s speech last night to a joint session of Congress. The Dow jumped 222 points, or 1 percent, to 21,034, a new record, shortly after trade opened. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index added 20 points, or 0.9 percent, to 2,384. The Nasdaq composite increased 46 points, or ... (full story)

The higher they go, the harder they fall, though admittedly, this things is on steroids atm
All markets around the world hitting new highs ....yet they're bad mouthing Trump .
Quoting cat
The higher they go, the harder they fall, though admittedly, this things is on steroids atm
Concur... not only is the big question of "when" but also how far and how fast... mark in your 5% lines
In the tempest of a fast moving market; not everyone is happy.
Quoting kiwis
{quote} Concur... not only is the big question of "when" but also how far and how fast... mark in your 5% lines
Long time no hear my friend. How goes life?
Quoting fxx360
All markets around the world hitting new highs ....yet they're bad mouthing Trump .
Yes, and as a campaigner, he'd have been calling them an unsustainable bubble, but now he's taking the credit. I'm not anti-Trump at all, but these markets are built on sand, which for us traders matters not a jot, but for the US economy, they are completely divergent and everything is setting up for a massive collapse, whatever Trump does or doesn't do.
Quoting cat
{quote} Long time no hear my friend. How goes life?
Good thank you.... been busy with life for a while but now back and into the mix again. Will send PM soon.
In the tempest of a fast moving market; not everyone is happy.
Quoting cat
{quote} but for the US economy, they are completely divergent and everything is setting up for a massive collapse, whatever Trump does or doesn't do.
Based on what? The US economy is just getting started. The last decade for the US economy has been terrible in terms of numbers. (Less than 2.5% average GDP) Prior to that, the average GDP for the largest economy in the world was at 8 to 9% annually. The goal is lessen the corporate Tax 20 to 15% (which currently is the highest in the world at 39%) Loosen Regulations in the energy sector, more money in circulation for banks to loan for small business, and reduce individual tax rates. All these considerations is a recipe for growth, not a crash as you and others are intimating at. I am sure there will be a correction at some point, but not in "crash terms"! Further more, with inflationary levels rising, the speculation of a rate Hike seems probable that March is a live date and the market is just trying to price in as such. Look at 10 year treasury yields and you can see where the dollar rally is heading.
Quoting DrManhatten
{quote} Based on what? The US economy is just getting started. ..... more money in circulation for banks to loan for small business, ...
If banks wanted to lend to small businesses, they would have done it with the 3.6 trillion generated through the 3 QE programmes, but they didn't, they piled all that money into the stock market instead...why lend to small businesses with interest rates at virtually zero when you can get great returns from purchasing liquid assets? The US is living in an enormous debt bubble, and if you think that lowering corporate and individual tax rates ig going to improve anything at all, you are living a fantasy. Rate hike? They talked up four for 2016 this time last year, but they gave one. Why? to save face, that is all. With the Federal debt now sitting just under 20 Trillion, how is raising the amount of interest the US has to pay on this enormous debt going to help the US economy, tell me that? If anything, we'll see a rate cut before we see a rate rise. the Fed has backed itself into a corner and now has nowhere to turn except turn to useless rhetoric, just as we are now hearing from Trump. There is simply no way that the economic measures Trump plans to initiate can compensate for the tens of trillions of dollars in government, corporate, and personal debt that has to be serviced. My guess is that we get another round of QE, because that is the only way that the Federal Reserve is going to keep the ship afloat, for now.
It's a lost cause cat, Dr Manhatten has been brainwashed by globalisation and free markets
Doc did you watch the movie The BIG Short? Can you explain how loose regulation helped in the run up to 2008?
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
Quoting mrcreosote
It's a lost cause cat, Dr Manhatten has been brainwashed by globalisation and free markets Doc did you watch the movie The BIG Short? Can you explain how loose regulation helped in the run up to 2008?
yes, I sort of figured that.
Quoting mrcreosote
It's a lost cause cat, Dr Manhatten has been brainwashed by globalisation and free markets Doc did you watch the movie The BIG Short? Can you explain how loose regulation helped in the run up to 2008?
Hmm? Thats your argument? I am just stating facts, and BTW it has nothing to do with globalization, conflating loose regulations with less regulations is an straw mans argument! Try again if you will.
Quoting cat
{quote} If banks wanted to lend to small businesses, they would have done it with the 3.6 trillion generated through the 3 QE programmes, but they didn't, they piled all that money into the stock market instead...why lend to small businesses with interest rates at virtually zero when you can get great returns from purchasing liquid assets? The US is living in an enormous debt bubble, and if you think that lowering corporate and individual tax rates ig going to improve anything at all, you are living a fantasy. Rate hike? They talked up four for...
To answer a few questions you point out here Kitty cat: 1. Why would banks not lend out to small businesses when you get great returns from purchasing liquid assets at zero interest rates? Simple! Speculation is cheap, and up until the FED raised interest rates, the returns were fast and furious. In today and the now paradigm where the vital engine to growing an economy is small business, hence the fact that in order to spurn growth there needs to be an incentivizing climate for banks to make more money available to those who are looking to grow their businesses. The key is not so much about banks purchasing power, but growing a stagnant economy.

2. If cutting taxes and lowering interest rates is a fantasy, then I guess you don't remember a man named Reagan who virtually did the same thing and that seemed to work out fine. Maybe you don't seem to understand how growing an economy works or for that matter running a business of your own. In order to bring back jobs, a competitive environment has to be created in order to be lucrative for corporations, Small businesses to consider setting up shop in America again, in which in the past 30 years is the reason why they fled to foreign lands to begin with.

3. If you don't have jobs or companies to create jobs who pays for the massive debt bubble you speak of? BTW the US is not even in the top ten when it comes personal household debt. The point is you have to start somewhere, and reducing the corporate tax rate and individual tax rate is a good start.

4. How is the US going to pay for the enormous debt of 20 Trillion dollars?
By growing the economy through manufacturing, repatriation of off shores revenues, reducing fraud in Government spending, becoming energy independent, balancing our trade deficit. (which last year was over 800 billion US dollars)

Oh on a last note:

Yes the FED is going to raise rates this year, will it be 4 times? Probably not, but I would be willing to bet that if the economy continues to grow, along with rising inflationary prices, then 2X is not out of the question. This nonsense of more QE as you suggest is just that, nonsense. Have fun living on the plantation!
hey guys..
@cat
@DrManhatten
Youre providing a REALLY interesting discussion here..
Both.
Pls Pls Pls DONT start to decend into namecalling BS.. like "Kitty Cat"
Otherwise..Keep your exchange going..I and others find both your analysis/outlooks interesting and thought provoking..
Thks Guys.
Doc, the debt will never ever get repaid. That's never, ever ever ever ever I have a theory that DJT will rack up a horrendous amount of debt and then try and default on it in some manner
You sound like a poster boy for the banksters, how are you and your friends enjoying your London rental rates? That's what happens when you misrepresent inflation and have an unregulated banking system that throws money around like it's going out of fashion...
Don't predict interest rate rises, every economist known to man got it wrong last year
Peace man!
And don't call the cat kitty or else we'll set the dogs out
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
Quoting cat
Hidden
Nice one Cat... Very mature.
You sure showed your colors here.

Quoting cliffedwards
hey guys.. @cat @DrManhatten Youre providing a REALLY interesting discussion here.. Both. Pls Pls Pls DONT start to decend into namecalling BS.. like "Kitty Cat" Thks Guys.
The current US economy is not a bubble...? lol, thats a good one. keep em coming.
Cliff, it's colour mate, with a U, please have some respect for the English language
Wasn't Ronnie Raygun a right wing fascist brainless barsteward who lined the pockets of his mates in big corporations, whereas DJT is a, oh hold on I'll try again on that one
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
Quoting mrcreosote
Cliff, it's colour mate, with a U, please have some respect for the English language
Sorry Mate .. Ive become Americanized (sic)
It taken me YEARS to achieve.. but thanks to Microsoft.. Im converted.. LoL
When in Rome..LoL
Sometimes you know your comment is going to be banned by the moderators, but when you're dealing with someone like DrManhatten above , who's only line of debate is condescension, it's worth it. In my world, you fight fire with fire, with no grace or quarter.

Here's the main bulk of my reply for those who are interested...

When Reagan came into office, stocks were cheap, at first they rallied, then they went into a two year Bear market. Now stocks are very expensive based on low interest rates. Inflation was very high, so were interest rates, the opposite of today.

As for tax cuts , Trump is not promising the same cuts Reagan was, he's promising middle class tax cuts, but not the big cuts in the marginal rate that we saw under Reagan. What enabled these big Reagan cuts was the untapped borrowing capacity with very high yielding bonds offered to the private sector. Now, the Federal debt is $20 trillion, and so there is absolutely no capacity to run up debt as there was under Reagan, and lengthening the maturity of the national debt is completely unaffordable whichever way you look at it.

Reagan campaigned on big cuts in government spending, even though he never delivered on those promises, and Trump campaigned for the opposite - massive increases in govt spending and huge infrastructure projects when the country is completely broke.

If Trump really wants to provide an incentivizing climate for the banks to lend to small businesses, then why is he all of a sudden talking up the stock market, taking the credit for something that during the campaign he was calling an unsustainable bubble.
Quoting cat
Sometimes you know your comment is going to be banned by the moderators, but when you're dealing with someone like DrManhatten above , who's only line of debate is condescension, it's worth it. In my world, you fight fire with fire, with no grace or quarter..
Im sorry you live in such a dystopian world.
Genuinely.
FF is just an internet forum.


Quoting cat
Here's the main bulk of my reply for those who are interested... When Reagan came into office, stocks were cheap, at first they rallied, then they went into a two year Bear market. Now stocks are very expensive based on low interest rates. Inflation was very high, so were interest rates, the...
Thank you for republishing. You make interesting points.
And set me, and Im sure others, thinking. which is the whole purpose of this forum.
Respect.
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Im sorry you live in such a dystopian world.: Respect.
That is because we all do.

Dystopian - from the Greek word meaning a community or society that is undesirable or frightening.

A society which elects politicians who are merely puppets for the debauched, immoral corporate class who think nothing of taking entire nations to war for financial gain, and an electorate who are far more willing to turn out in their hundreds of thousands to protest at the alleged moral shortcomings of a new President whilst 21,000 people die around the world every single day from starvation and hunger related diseases unnoticed despite the fact that there is the technology and enough food to feed the world 100 times over, is, in my opinion, a dystopian world. But fuck it...who cares anyway.
Quoting cat
Sometimes you know your comment is going to be banned by the moderators, but when you're dealing with someone like DrManhatten above , who's only line of debate is condescension, it's worth it. In my world, you fight fire with fire, with no grace or quarter. Here's the main bulk of my reply for those who are interested... When Reagan came into office, stocks were cheap, at first they rallied, then they went into a two year Bear market. Now stocks are very expensive based on low interest rates. Inflation was very high, so were interest rates, the...
Dealing with some one like me? Really? As if you know who I am? Sorry but that sounds a bit disgruntled on your part because you can't seem to come to grips with the valid points I make, not to mention being presumptuous. You have a lot of negatives to express (complaints) and very short on solutions and short on math! I especially notice how you conveniently ignored my articulated points on how he was going pay for the various spending projects such as Infrastructure, Defense spending, fixing the turd known as ACA (which there is nothing affordable about it!) Education, and creating jobs. Also comparing Reagan to Trump who has been in office less than 60 days is not a fair barometer for judging a man who is setting out to fix many of the problems he inherited, again another straw man argument that is short on substance! . But let me not stop you in playing the negative Nancy role as the obstructionists on capital hill will applaud you for. I guess the lowest unemployment claims in 44 years is not enough to convince you that the American economy is about to start it's engines right? Or that thousands of jobs have been created since Trump took office. The country is not broke as you so inaccurately state, if that were the case hows does Obama rack up 9 trillion more dollars of new debt in the last 8 years to pay for his failed policies more than any president combined before him? Nope I bet you don't have an answer for that except people like you can't offer solutions, instead you feed at the trough in seeking to wish failure for the country, and wish Trump fails as well. How patriotic of you! Now we know why elections have consequences, it is the same mindless rhetoric we have been hearing for the past 8 years. Condescension? Lets not throw out stupid statements like more "quantative easing" and the FED is backed into a corner silliness and that the market is going to crash with nothing to back it up with. Ooooh! We are so scared of the doom and gloom fear mongering you want to project! You really have no idea what you are talking about as it is obvious you live in an alternative universe where self loathing is the new norm. How do you plan to fix this mess? What are your solutions? If you have all the answers then why don't you run for POTUS? Here is a clue for you, in order to fix the many problems such as debt, you have to have a productive economy to do so. Spending money to make money is how it's done. Try economics 101, and maybe you might be able to articulate a better argument in providing solutions instead of droning on about it can't be done partisan rhetoric or resorting to name calling because you feel the need to take things personal.
Quoting mrcreosote
Doc, the debt will never ever get repaid. That's never, ever ever ever ever I have a theory that DJT will rack up a horrendous amount of debt and then try and default on it in some manner You sound like a poster boy for the banksters, how are you and your friends enjoying your London rental rates? That's what happens when you misrepresent inflation and have an unregulated banking system that throws money around like it's going out of fashion... Don't predict interest rate rises, every economist known to man got it wrong last year Peace man! And...
Perhaps you are right about the debt never being paid, but some will try, and to prematurely write off the possibilities of what one can inspire to or achieve is not really looking at it objectively, nor optimistically.

No I am not a poster boy for banksters, as I am a bank robber and you blindly presume to know who I am.

As far as rental rates in London, I wouldn't know, I don't rent!

We will see who is eating crow on March 15th, but if I am wrong, then I will gladly come back here to acknowledge your words as such predictions being wrong. Good luck and peace to you too!
Quoting DrManhatten
{quote} Dealing with some one like me? Really? As if you know who I am? Sorry but that sounds a bit disgruntled on your part because you can't seem to come to grips with the valid points I make, not to mention being presumptuous. You have a lot of negatives to express (complaints) and very short on solutions and short on math! I especially notice how you conveniently ignored my articulated points on how he was going pay for the various spending projects such as Infrastructure, Defense spending, fixing the turd known as ACA (which there is nothing...
An essay..I'm only glad you see the need to try and justify your nonsense. I've said everything I need to say to destroy your argument, and by the way, you were the one who made the initial comparison to Reagan, not me. Anymore time spent discussing this with you is for me wasted time. Adios.
Quoting cat
{quote} An essay..I'm only glad you see the need to try and justify your nonsense. I've said everything I need to say to destroy your argument, and by the way, you were the one who made the initial comparison to Reagan, not me. Anymore time spent discussing this with you is for me wasted time. Adios.
Yep that must be it. Lets add obtuse to the list shall we? When you can't engage in a discussion presented with facts you have nothing but to resort to childish epithets! And the nonsense you speak of is yours and only yours as I go by facts and articulated as such! I wasn't comparing two men and their individual policies but merely pointing out that lowering taxes is what he did to grow the economy as such what Trump is trying to do as well. Not comparing two different era's that have two different climates in which calls for different solutions in fixing the economy. I guess reading comprehension is not your strong suit? Or are you practicing intellectual dishonesty in order to stroke your own ego on false sense of self? Have fun living in your echo chamber!
Quoting DrManhatten
{quote} Yep that must be it. Lets add obtuse to the list shall we? When you can't engage in a discussion presented with facts you have nothing but to resort to childish epithets! And the nonsense you speak of is yours and only yours as I go by facts and articulated as such! I wasn't comparing two men and their individual policies but merely pointing out that lowering taxes is what he did to grow the economy as such what Trump is trying to do as well. Not comparing two different era's that have two different climates in which calls for different...
Listen pal, I disqualified your argument in one short post. Do you really think that as a professional full time trader I'm going to carry on responding to someone who keeps firing back long, rambling posts about how a new President is going to be able to magically resurrect an economy that is in wholescale structural decline with a few tax cuts? Go back to your fantasy world, oh sorry, you never left.
We have a cat, a mad hatter now all we need is Alice...
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  • Posted: Mar 1, 2017 10:38am
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     Newsstand
    Category: Breaking News
    Comments: 28  /  Views: 5,883