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  • EUR/USD 1.0: It's Now Or Never - SocGen

    From efxnews.com

    The bullish US macro-economic ‘reset' following the election success of Donald Trump has governed financial markets and sparked the bond market rout and USD buying but it is the threat of political tail risk and splintering of Europe that could decide if EUR/USD tests parity for the first time since 2002. 1. Same place, different time. The election victory of Trump was the catalyst for EUR/USD to retreat below 1.06 and close in on levels only observed three times since early 2015. EUR/USD traded at a 1.0458 low shortly after the ECB launched the first purchases of government bonds in March 2015. This marked a ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Nov 23, 2016 11:32pm Nov 23, 2016 11:32pm
On Dec 8 Draghi could send for market hints that after March ECB will decrease buy bonds from 80B to 60B or less and Q4 2017 a date to stop program buy bonds .The 8 DEC draghi decision will be the compass EUR/USD parity or 1.14......wait and see ...My opinion .
  • #2
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  • Nov 23, 2016 11:42pm Nov 23, 2016 11:42pm
Agree!
  • #3
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  • Nov 24, 2016 12:07am Nov 24, 2016 12:07am
The Euro maybe pricing in the SocioPolitical factor thats currently sweeping UK USA and Currently France with talks of Frexit!

The bigger concerns are clearly not merely economics as Americas impending boom now that a Republican President is in the infrastructure funds. This will clearly benefit the world as well.

The serious News Draghi needs to send is not economics but that leaders are addressing concerns of citizens or leaders who are pondering referendum on in or out the Euro.

Clearly as Traders the thoughts must go further than just the price and even consider which currency would you prefer to use right now for your trading account. This is not dis-similar to the sentiments of the market regarding the price of Euro vs the USD.

This is clearly the factors influencing the pricing of USD and EURO.

Clearly nothing extraordinary has happened yet as both Euro and USD are doing what they normally do this time of year.

Who knows maybe support has been reached.

I would recommend sending out a scout at this stage....worse case scenario support is taken out 80 Pips below 1.0453 at 1.046 level with small loss. or miss the bounce back to 1.20 or above.
  • #4
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  • Edited 1:35am Nov 24, 2016 12:43am | Edited 1:35am
(I would recommend sending out a scout at this stage....worse case scenario support is taken out 80 Pips below 1.0453 at 1.046 level with small loss. or miss the bounce back to 1.20 or above)....... I agree 100% if many Traders think the same I feel they do 1.05 will become very strong support hard to break ....
Quoting DonFF
The Euro maybe pricing in the SocioPolitical factor thats currently sweeping UK USA and Currently France with talks of Frexit!

The bigger concerns are clearly not merely economics as Americas impending boom now that a Republican President is in the infrastructure funds. This will clearly benefit the world as well.

The serious News Draghi needs to send is not economics but that leaders are addressing concerns of citizens or leaders who are pondering referendum on in or out the Euro.

Clearly as Traders the thoughts must go further than just...
(I would recommend sending out a scout at this stage....worse case scenario support is taken out 80 Pips below 1.0453 at 1.046 level with small loss. or miss the bounce back to 1.20 or above)....... I agree 100% if many Traders think the same I feel they do then 1.05 will become very strong support hard to break ....
  • #5
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  • Nov 24, 2016 12:58am Nov 24, 2016 12:58am
Actually it's not just the many traders it's what the market makers are thinking in terms of where they realistically see the price in 3,6,12 months.

The bigger question for Euro zone leaders in support of Euro is how to first settle Brexit then reassuring the rest of Euro zone in particular France which is getting restive.
  • #6
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  • Nov 24, 2016 1:00am Nov 24, 2016 1:00am
  •  Trader#94ED
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
The rumors have been priced in. We will see eurusd ranging until dec fomc then usd will plunge
  • #7
  • Quote
  • Nov 24, 2016 1:41am Nov 24, 2016 1:41am
Quoting DonFF
Actually it's not just the many traders it's what the market makers are thinking in terms of where they realistically see the price in 3,6,12 months.

The bigger question for Euro zone leaders in support of Euro is how to first settle Brexit then reassuring the rest of Euro zone in particular France which is getting restive.
2nd question EUR/USD parity us exportations could support it .....!!! Pound,cheap, Euro cheap ( productions competitive with us)
  • #8
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  • Nov 24, 2016 2:43am Nov 24, 2016 2:43am
everything is cheep only Dollar Strong. when dollar weak i viewed many comments here about historical bluish and i read all comments u all r so expert lolz.
>>>>>>>>BULL<<<<<<<<<
  • #9
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  • Nov 24, 2016 10:16am Nov 24, 2016 10:16am
NOT THIS YEAR
  • #10
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  • Nov 24, 2016 10:24am Nov 24, 2016 10:24am
I agree no Parity this year Europe is exporting economy....Europe must get real and follow the lead of USA with regards to interest rate
  • #11
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  • Nov 24, 2016 11:53am Nov 24, 2016 11:53am
For those who followed my silly advice and send out a scout...The scouting report is EUR is strengthening into December.

Still early days to add to this position.

Am not big fan of EURUSD as this pair is a ranger while I prefer trenders like the raging GBP or the more mild AUD.

Having said that the pip potential on this is above 1000 going into June 2017 and beyond. Clearly we add to the position after pull backs.....
  • #12
  • Quote
  • Nov 24, 2016 11:58am Nov 24, 2016 11:58am
Quoting DonFF
For those who followed my silly advice and send out a scout...The scouting report is EUR is strengthening into December.

Still early days to add to this position.

Am not big fan of EURUSD as this pair is a ranger while I prefer trenders like the raging GBP or the more mild AUD.

Having said that the pip potential on this is above 1000 going into June 2017 and beyond. Clearly we add to the position after pull backs.....
ECB soon will decrease buying bonds ( 8 DEC ) sounds EUR will go up before FED hike rate )))))
  • #13
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  • Nov 24, 2016 12:06pm Nov 24, 2016 12:06pm
I am not surprised if it gets bullish next week after Draghi's speech. The way is paved with little USD news drivers in the way.

As it must have enough time to push up before heading back down a little bit with Fed rate decision before heading north again afterwards.

NFP will not be as consequential once again...FOMC takes priority.
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  • Posted: Nov 23, 2016 11:01pm
  • Submitted by:
     eFx Newz
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 13  /  Views: 5,227