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  • Pound's flash crash baffles the market

    From abc.net.au

    An extraordinary 10 per cent flash crash by the British pound has left currency traders baffled about its cause. At 10:07am (AEST) the pound suddenly crashed from $US1.26 against the US dollar to a fresh 30-year low below $US1.14 in a matter of seconds. Over the next 10 minutes the pound regained much of the loss to be trading down a little over 1 per cent lower in early Asian trade. Currency dealers contacted by the ABC this morning were largely at loss to explain what caused the violent move. However, it was noticeable that the crash occurred on very low volumes and the selling momentum was most likely amplified by ... (full story)

Find who just made a fortune out of the drop and you'll find somebody that could explain how it happened. Rich bastards just cleaned up on stop loss collections. Master Manipulation. Carefully timed.
based on reuters data. prior to crash, retail long across currnex was 17000 lots, while shorts were 1300. that ratio is so skewed.

if i were e banks, i too would clear up these positions. free money why not.
Quoting Blackopal
Find who just made a fortune out of the drop and you'll find somebody that could explain how it happened. Rich bastards just cleaned up on stop loss collections. Master Manipulation. Carefully timed.
I would really like to know if stop losses where honored at all. Move was so quick that I don't believe all stop losses could be filled. Bucket shops with guarantied stop losses could be in very big trouble right now. Interesting times, indeed.
and what will be done about it - nothing big fat cats always get the cream and wow did they cream that or what
Quoting Tom81
I would really like to know if stop losses where honored at all. Move was so quick that I don't believe all stop losses could be filled. Bucket shops with guarantied stop losses could be in very big trouble right now. Interesting times, indeed.
b book bucket shops prob profitted the most.
  • Comment #6
  • Quote
  • Edited Oct 7, 2016 12:03am Oct 6, 2016 11:09pm | Edited Oct 7, 2016 12:03am
but why there were so much long positions on pound ?? GBP isnt showing any sign of bullishness. So cant blame the big guns for taking the stops out.
capitulation
Quoting sunny1304
but why there were so much long positions on pound ?? GBP isnt showing any sign of bullishness. So cant blame the big guns for taking the stops out.
Probably

1 - Fundamentals are intact or improving.
2 - General Perception that the pound has reached the bottom.

Looks like stop loss hunting, the market movers would have seen the longs and licked their lips at the prospect of easy money. We end up playing with our marbles.
Silence your Ego & Your Power will Rise
I wouldn't be too surprized to find out that Soros did it again... He is a master when it comes to things like these... He did it în the 90's... So...
"I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of people"
GBP & CAD are the ones that reacts more to fundamental announcements.
Varahala Babu
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.232.37
There is chatter going around that this was Deutsche bank related
Quoting sunny1304
but why there were so much long positions on pound ?? GBP isnt showing any sign of bullishness. So cant blame the big guns for taking the stops out.
Yes, you're exactly right - I saw a massive majority of FF 'traders' were Long GBP/USD and thought 'nothing changes' - people still trying to catch a falling knife.
I've got my pips - go get yours!
Ask the big banks, are they trying to tell the UK something about BREXIT!!!!
Quoting BackTestDummy
Yes, you're exactly right - I saw a massive majority of FF 'traders' were Long GBP/USD and thought 'nothing changes' - people still trying to catch a falling knife.
People with nine lives.
Let it turn and find your entry.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.97.93
Several days GBP has hit records with thinner and thinner order book until there was left only crazy orders. It is also record heavily with sell positions, just added this and last week. So, the obvious just happened. George Soros estimated 20% decreasing in GBP when brexit comes, and 1.2000 is very near it. What will happened next? Search for guilty ones, BoE is very happy, GB industry is happy, order flow, and soon GB is also free from EU regulation.
Quoting neastie
Ask the big banks, are they trying to tell the UK something about BREXIT!!!!


Nope just taking advantage of people trying to move the market instead of following the market.
Let it turn and find your entry.
Bankers intentionally "acting" range market trying to get people to hunt reversals (with martingale on one run) - and then BOOM.
This happens constantly in all C. pairs and this is the only real thing that runs Forex.
perhaps my English is not perfect - but I know the Jungle
Obviously time to load my short gun
have a chat to George soros... maybe he tried to break the BOE again
Quoting fxpiprunner
have a chat to George soros... maybe he tried to break the BOE again
One of MANY..
but he made his position very clear 3 months ago..

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/george-soros-brexit-only-winners-124919723.html
Quoting Intrepidpips
Nope just taking advantage of people trying to move the market instead of following the market.
You HAVE to be joking..
Is the WHOLE UK in denial?
Brexit is a CLUSTER-FKUC.
On June 23 we were told "the People have spoken"... NP
Since then and more clearly last 24h.
The Market has spoken.

/EndOf
There is no market. They just took the TP and activateed Buy p. orders. If there were the "Market" the Pound should continue DD.
perhaps my English is not perfect - but I know the Jungle
Quoting cliffedwards
You HAVE to be joking..
Is the WHOLE UK in denial?
Brexit is a CLUSTER-FKUC.
On June 23 we were told "the People have spoken"... NP
Since then and more clearly last 24h.
The Market has spoken.

/EndOf

So who is the market?

IMHO the market is just participants pushing prices up or down where they see opportunity for profit.
Let it turn and find your entry.
Quoting SickOfScam
There is no market. They just took the TP and activateed Buy p. orders. If there were the "Market" the Pound should continue DD.

+1
Let it turn and find your entry.
Quoting Intrepidpips
So who is the market?

IMHO the market is just participants pushing prices up or down where they see opportunity for profit.
Absolutely..
But you should add..
"Based on short term mispricing and longer term economic sentiment and analysis."

Old saying:
If it smells like a DoG, Barks like a Dog and has fleas like a Dog..???
Know what? Probably IS A DOG.
Is there anything fundamentally different about GB today compared to yesterday? Or a week ago? Or a month ago?

If yes I must be oblivious. If no this is manipulation. FOREX, after all, is not an open market like stocks.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.22.27
stop moaning, wait for 1.20000 and pile in. simple really.
Gee whiz, so much paranoia. GBP was already trending down, and having broken through significant support it just gained a lot of momentum. Maybe algorithms added to it but it was nonetheless an organic move. Look at the Daily chart, it's a classic parabolic shape.
Manipulation at its finest. Part of the reason why I don't like Forex and unregulated markets.

Much prefer futures these days...
Quoting mogulmedia
Manipulation at its finest. Part of the reason why I don't like Forex and unregulated markets.

Much prefer futures these days...
Pound Futures did the same thing as Spot.
Quoting cliffedwards
You HAVE to be joking..
Is the WHOLE UK in denial?
Brexit is a CLUSTER-FKUC.
On June 23 we were told "the People have spoken"... NP
Since then and more clearly last 24h.
The Market has spoken.

/EndOf
So I'm curious.....how would the UK fared when the EU falls apart? Ten years from now, you will see how smart it was to get out when you did. Some of the largest gains in political polls in various countries around the EU have one thing in common - they are all pro-leave. Holland, Finland, Italy, and even France. We are at the beginning.

Remember, there was a UK LONG before an EU. It will still be there. Also, if the UK is so fucked, then why do the US, Australia, Canada, and yes - even Germany - all want to be at the front of the line for free trade deals? The EU needs Britain, not the other way around.

The EU and the USA don't have a free trade agreement. Why? Because Brussels. Think about it, the US is a market roughly the same size as the EU by itself. Sooner rather than later, we will see this work itself out with our cousins across the pond.

The only real and honest argument I have heard out of the "remain" camp is that they are upset that they can't move to EU countries freely once this happens. Fair enough, but there are still ways to do it FFS.

Oh, and you have been around long enough to know the currency markets are highly manipulated. The markets haven't spoken, someone took advantage of stop losses.
Their are some traders on the London night desk and in Singapore who will have wonderful bonuses for this move or was it a fat finger ? still some one has made a killing !
It's just a blow out. nothing special.
The last dime has been taken from the losers accounts.
Yeh could be
Quoting clockwork71
So I'm curious.....how would the UK fared when the EU falls apart? Ten years from now, you will see how smart it was to get out when you did. Some of the largest gains in political polls in various countries around the EU have one thing in common - they are all pro-leave. Holland, Finland, Italy, and even France. We are at the beginning.

Remember, there was a UK LONG before an EU. It will still be there. Also, if the UK is so fucked, then why do the US, Australia, Canada, and yes - even Germany - all want to be at the front of the line for free...

Couldn't have said it better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0
Let it turn and find your entry.
Well said
Quoting clockwork71
So I'm curious.....how would the UK fared when the EU falls apart? Ten years from now, you will see how smart it was to get out when you did. Some of the largest gains in political polls in various countries around the EU have one thing in common - they are all pro-leave. Holland, Finland, Italy, and even France. We are at the beginning.

Remember, there was a UK LONG before an EU. It will still be there. Also, if the UK is so fucked, then why do the US, Australia, Canada, and yes - even Germany - all want to be at the front of the line for free...
I concur
Quoting clockwork71
So I'm curious.....how would the UK fared when the EU falls apart? Ten years from now, you will see how smart it was to get out when you did. Some of the largest gains in political polls in various countries around the EU have one thing in common - they are all pro-leave. Holland, Finland, Italy, and even France. We are at the beginning.

Remember, there was a UK LONG before an EU. It will still be there. Also, if the UK is so fucked, then why do the US, Australia, Canada, and yes - even Germany - all want to be at the front of the line for free...
You know Bro.. opinions are like assholes.. Everybody has one.
Your perception of the EU , of how currency markets can be "manipulated are bizarre.
As to the UK being around before EU .. and the EU falling apart? This is laughable.
90 years ago the UK included Ireland, and now it doesnt, and there is real potential that before long it wont include Scotland? So much for falling apart?
So much for a UNITED Kingdom. Dont you think you mean England/Wales.
Lets just agree to differ.
Good Trading.
Quoting clockwork71
....
Remember, there was a UK LONG before an EU.
.....
The EU needs Britain, not the other way around.
....
The only real and honest argument I have heard out of the "remain" camp is that they are upset that they can't move to EU countries freely once this happens.
....
Up until the late 1940s-early 1960s the UK had an Empire and was able to dictate terms of trade with the constituent nations; the decade of the 1960s saw the UK economy on the ropes once the Empire had gone - it was why the entry to the precursor of the EU was such a shoo-in - those chaps on the continent were doing so much better than we were.
I certainly agree, times have changed.
We also had a fairly large primary manufacturing base, which is conspicuous in its absence today. Our exports are dominated by things for which we have to import stuff to make. And services. Some say our manufacturing base will revive - well, I hope so but how will it compete in cost of labour terms? So many unanswered questions.

Therefore, all comparisons with the UK before the 1970s as examples of what we can return to are specious.

Proportionately speaking, the EU exports much less (16% +/- of its overall exports' value) to the UK than the UK does to the EU (47% +/- of exports' value). Not sure (beyond French cheese and champagne and German cars) who relies on whom for a significant chunk of their prosperity.

If what you report is "...the only real and honest argument..." then I suggest you get out more, talk to people and read more widely.
Those who were deeper thinkers than being worried about trips to France were asking whether the inevitable disruption would be worth the candle. Eventually, we will be in a different place. Eventually, we probably will turn out OK. How long is eventually? Neither I nor anyone else has a clue. But I bet it's measured in two to three half-decades. Meanwhile, the Law of Unintended Consequences is having, and will continue to have, an absolute field day.

And, your turn to remember, nothing so far has actually happened to progress to really leaving... yet look at the reaction as soon as our beloved politicos start to indicate some demands...

GBP against a lot of the majors was in a long term down trend for around 2 years prior to the referendum. The 'markets' haven't liked us for a while now.
Quoting clockwork71
Remember, there was a UK LONG before an EU. It will still be there. Also, if the UK is so fucked, then why do the US, Australia, Canada, and yes - even Germany - all want to be at the front of the line for free trade deals? The EU needs Britain, not the other way around.
This old fallacy that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU for trade is complete nonsense.
In a hard Brexit scenario the UK will lose free access to a market of 450 million people while the EU loses free access to a market of just 64 million.

The potential loss of EU “passporting” rights for the UK financial services sector will cause much more pain for the UK than the selling of a few less BMW’s and Audi’s will do for the EU economy.
In fact A. Merkel stated as such yesterday that EU principles including freedom of movement will be prioritised before their “narrow sectoral interests”

The US has repeatedly said through President Obama that the UK will go to the back of the queue in trade negotiations. He stated this categorically before the vote and has repeated it since.

If Australia and Canada are fighting to join the front of the queue you can guarantee that is because they believe they have more to gain than lose in a free trade deal with the UK. They certainly won’t be doing the UK any favours!
Everything will be okay in the end. If it's not okay, it's not the end.
Quoting theras2000
This old fallacy that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU for trade is complete nonsense.
In a hard Brexit scenario the UK will lose free access to a market of 450 million people while the EU loses free access to a market of just 64 million.

The potential loss of EU “passporting” rights for the UK financial services sector will cause much more pain for the UK than the selling of a few less BMW’s and Audi’s will do for the EU economy.
In fact A. Merkel stated as such yesterday that EU principles including freedom of movement will...
There is an old joke about a UK newpaper headline which read..
FOG IN CHANNEL -EUROPE CUT OFF

The average UK citizen is completely out of touch with the reality of modern geopolitics.
and economics .. they have is NO comprehension of how much of their their prosperity is dependent on an economically joined up world and particularly on the EU membership. Just look at the Sunderland vote for Brexit? Turkeys voting for Christmas. Unbelievable.
Read our Press Media. Its SO MYOPIC as to be funny if such a condition were not so dangerous. Ive read economically illiterate posters arguing that because UK imports more from EU than it exports that its got the edge in upcoming negotiations.
WTF? When nearly 50% of ALL your trade go to one customer (EU) and only 10% of their exports go to you?. What does that tell you?
They seriously believe that they can scrap the Freedom of Labour movement bit of the deal and RETAIN the Freedom OF Capital Movement (passporting) bit. And call foul when they are warned not?
And guess what.. they rule out any APPROVAL plebicite, any opportunity for the voters to revisit or APPROVE the deal in 2 years before the door finally slams.
So Voters have been sold a package.. with no idea of the COST of what theyve bought, and are now to be denied any chance to say NO! thats NOT what I was promised.. thats NOT what I voted for.. thats NOT a price I want to pay?
Thats BREXOCRACY.. the delusion that when populism can be harnessed to your ideological ends its legitimate, but when not, then is unfair and undemocratic.

Aaah.. why go on.. the list is endless. The whole thing STINKS.
All I can say is Good Luck to the new Neo-Nastzy government and pity the citizens who will end up poorer and less secure as a result of this misadventure.
Only time will tell
Quoting cliffedwards
Absolutely..
But you should add..
"Based on short term mispricing and longer term economic sentiment and analysis."

Old saying:
If it smells like a DoG, Barks like a Dog and has fleas like a Dog..???
Know what? Probably IS A DOG.
Don't forget"Every Dog Has It's Day."Some of those dogs are not too far from becoming the very things they love. Bones
Quoting rythmrig
Don't forget"Every Dog Has It's Day."Some of those dogs are not too far from becoming the very things they love. Bones
ROFL..
Over $3500 per lot at 6.25.

This is nothing new. The manipulation of Gold was even more spectacular the other day.
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  • Posted: Oct 6, 2016 10:24pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 45  /  Views: 12,825