non farm payrolls was horrible, due largely to a skyrocket in jobless claims.
JPMorgan: The odds of a recession starting in 12 months has hit a high
The probability of a recession occuring within the next 12 months has never been higher during the current economic recovery. This is according to the economists at JPMorgan. "Our preferred macroeconomic indicator of the probability that a recession begins within 12 months has moved up from 30% on May 5 to 34% last week to 36% today," JPMorgan's Jesse Edgerton wrote. "This marks the second consecutive week that the tracker has reached a new high for the expansion." JPMorgan's proprietary model considers the levels of several economic indicators, including consumer sentiment, manufacturing sentiment, building ... (full story)