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  • UK voters leaning towards Brexit, Guardian poll reveals

    From theguardian.com

    Public opinion has shifted towards the UK leaving the EU, two Guardian/ICM polls suggest as the referendum campaign picks up pace – with voters splitting 52-48 in favour of Brexit whether surveyed online or by phone. Previous polls have tended to show voters surveyed online to be more in favour of Britain leaving the EU. But in the latest ICM research, carried out for the Guardian, both methodologies yielded the same result – a majority in favour of leaving. “Our poll rather unhinges a few accepted orthodoxies,” said ICM’s director, Martin Boon. “It is only one poll, but in a rather unexpected reverse of ... (full story)

I was wondering why the GBP/USD suddenly dropped 100 pips in the last few minutes or so.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
makes cable down ?
IF 27
Time for Bears' party.
very dangerous pair , take care your margin
unpredictable cable
IF 27
Quoting Pair-me-up
I was wondering why the GBP/USD suddenly dropped 100 pips in the last few minutes or so.
DAX also
EUR, as well
These polls change back and forth every other day. They had a poll last night that was the exact opposite. And it went up almost 100 pips. I see as we get closer to the vote people are being cautious with the GBP.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.250.228
Drop it like a hot potato
Turkeys voting for Christmas.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=591272
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.234.170
that came like a bat out of hell, lucky I had no open positions.
It's just the manipulators making sure everybody thinks the vote will be too close to call, so when remain wins there is not an uprising.
All are dirtY game .......IT WILL NOT HAPPEN...I CAN DARN GUARANTEE YOU..YOU JUST WRITE DOWN IT IN YOUR PAPER.....
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
Quoting gandolf13
It's just the manipulators making sure everybody thinks the vote will be too close to call, so when remain wins there is not an uprising.
You know the more I think about it..you are right..!!
A BREXIT could spark a serious instability in UK politics..
When the REALITY and CONSEQUENCES of whats been decided sinks in to the heads of the electorate..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=591272
Classy is right, it won't happen ...
sw786 Return Today: 0.0%
Quoting sw786
Classy is right, it won't happen ...
Bloody hope so.. for ALL our sakes..
even if my super short of cable fails.. LoL

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8954787#post8954787
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.136.99
Gold rocket launcher loaded prepare for safe heaven buying....whoooo
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.232.124
I actually live in London and, over the past month have carried around a notebook and run a personal poll , all sorts of people, Barbers, Shop keepers, Nurses, Co-Workers etc.

Out of 128 people asked ... 114 were for a Brexit, 4 were for remain and the other 10 were either don't know or don't care.

The Tory owned press (read Telegraph and BBC and Channel 4) are spouting their paymasters message of remain..... everyone else seems to be seeing the writing on the wall and the writing says "BREXIT" !!

Oh and yes I was short Cable , the poll result was out early today
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.111.80
If Brexit vote was positive or negative both will not resolve the weakness economie in England . Pound will target 1.50 after vote ( stay) good price to go aggressive short take profit 1.45 .And " if " vote ( exit ) sure Pound will decrease sharply the question at witch price to enter market short ? the answer ( stay) or ( exit ) short GBP/USD at 1.50 Good Luck
HA HA HA! The only Polll that matters is the one on Thursday 23rd June 2016. I could have given a more precise answer, but the Tardis has gone in for its 1Trillion light year service and they are using the Dolorean to go and get the spare parts. Oh welll, time will tell ; )
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
Quoting Guest
I actually live in London and, over the past month have carried around a notebook and run a personal poll , all sorts of people, Barbers, Shop keepers, Nurses, Co-Workers etc.

Out of 128 people asked ... 114 were for a Brexit, 4 were for remain and the other 10 were either don't know or don't care.

The Tory owned press (read Telegraph and BBC and Channel 4) are spouting their paymasters message of remain..... everyone else seems to be seeing the writing on the wall and the writing says "BREXIT" !!

Oh and yes I was short Cable , the poll...

You should get out more Mate.. LoL
The people in the UK surely have watched to Greece debacle.....Greece is artificially kept alive by the EU......I can see how they wouldn't want any part of the EU
The British should paddle towards US. EU is lost already.
Quoting pan.x
The British should paddle towards US. EU is lost already.
Oh yeah that reminds me....the people want their independence ...
Quoting glenngie
The people in the UK surely have watched to Greece debacle.....Greece is artificially kept alive by the EU......I can see how they wouldn't want any part of the EU
Great contribution.. mate
Lets TUBE GREECE..
I mean who gives **** about them.. ?? Not anyone in the UK?
Cause UK contributed NADA to their bailout..

Quote "I can see how they wouldn't want any part of the EU"

well aint that an indication of your depth of analysis..?
Why dont you check why Yanis Varoufakis the ex finance minister and so called EU hater is in UK RIGHT NOW trying to persuede UK voters to vote remain?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.211.95
I'm a brexiter but would like to meet a remainer face to face who is prepared to discuss the subject. Manning a leafleting stall for only three hours in Horncastle Lincolnshire last week with a constant stream of passers-by there were two remainers , one just passed by aloof and one started slinging insults from a distance. Try Global traders for their poll, fascinating.
Uk's bigest trading partner is the EU roughly 50% which means that if the Uk were to get out they would have to pay a tax to do business... also other countries that trade with the whole EU have their offices located in London do to a lower tax rate and this is why London regained status as the biggest financial centre in the world leaving the EU would force those companies to relocate, Scotland would want to stay in the EU which means another referendum and most likely Norten Ireland will follow... Need I go on?
Uk leaving the EU would very likely be an economic suicide any thing less would be a miracle
Quoting Guest
I'm a brexiter but would like to meet a remainer face to face who is prepared to discuss the subject. Manning a leafleting stall for only three hours in Horncastle Lincolnshire last week with a constant stream of passers-by there were two remainers , one just passed by aloof and one started slinging insults from a distance. Try Global traders for their poll, fascinating.
If Brexit goes ahead, companies will leave the UK (they are already getting ready), imports will be more expensive because the pound will drop like a stone, unemployment will rise considerably, as will inflation. Carney may have to raise interest rates- house prices will drop. It will be a mess.

Petrol prices will definitely go up and the UK without question will go into recession for years.

There has been serious warnings from every major economist and central banker about Brexit.

Brexit is utter madnes
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.126.150
The flip side to the overstated 50% figure of trade with the EU (it is less than that and is falling consistently year on year) is that the trade deficit with the largest EU partners - Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain totted up equates to 105 Billion Euro loss. The EU trade deficit is so large it cannot be financed by depreciating GBP so it has to be maintained by either increasing taxation or cutting public services. Joining the EUR would be a major mistake look at other countries running EU trade deficits - Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal.

As for economic suicide you are just guessing. Leaving the ERM was suicide apparently, to join it was John Major's EU disaster so many people lost their jobs, their businesses, their houses. Once we left we broke away from the shackles of the ERM and the economy boomed from the early 90s up to 2001. Next with the UK not joining the Euro was suicidal, turns out it has been our saviour with the only EU contry showing growth since the financial crisis of 2008. Now, the Scotland issue, yes they could leave but they have a gold plated deal after the referendum with fully devolved government, receiving more per head than any other person in any other country in the British union. Would be a massive move to dump a deal like that to integrate fully into the EU which is pretty much controlled by Germany as they are the only nation that can finance it. That finance will come at a price for Scotland.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.126.150
For any country deciding to leave will create supply for others to enter, we have the most dynamic open markets in the world. There will be extreme volatility during the years after a Brexit, as for Carney raising rates how will he do that? The entire continent of Europe is in a deflationary environment with negative interest rates, the far east is in deflationary environment with negative interest rates where is the inflation to justify high interest rates? The risk profile has gone up but that will only be temporary whilst investors establish how much risk they are prepared to take on to back the UK outside the EU - it is an unknown. The plus side on tariffs is because we are running such huge deficits with EU trading partners we will be charging Germany, France, Netherlands, Spain, Italy tariffs to access our lucrative market. Trade deals will be done much quicker than any of us imagine because you have trade relationships between suppliers, distributors, retailers that have been in place for decades and any government interference will be detrim
ental to their own economy. Please look at this logically if you want something you look for a supplier and you arrange a trade - been going on for thousands of years don't believe the scaremongering it is total nonsense
Quoting Fader123
If Brexit goes ahead, companies will leave the UK (they are already getting ready), imports will be more expensive because the pound will drop like a stone, unemployment will rise considerably, as will inflation. Carney may have to raise interest rates- house prices will drop. It will be a mess.

Petrol prices will definitely go up and the UK without question will go into recession for years.

There has been serious warnings from every major economist and central banker about Brexit.

Brexit is utter madnes
You are just regurgitating the fear tactics of politicians

Look on the bright side our exports will become cheaper, so what we manufacture for export will be in greater demand and that will increase employment .

Inflation is good for manufactures as it increases their margins, as opposed to deflation reducing their margins.

Carney will not raise interest rates as it will make the cost of government borrowing
unaffordable.

A cheaper GBP better exchange rates for tourists so more tourists will come to the UK.

House prices will drop, well that's good news for people who are trying to get onto the property ladder.

Petrol prices have gone down, thanks to the glut of oil in the world, and we have been in a recession since the financial crisis of 2007/2008.

All positive stuff!

To quote a verse from Monty Pythons Life Of Brian..............
And...always look on the bright side of life...
Always look on the light side of life...
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
Sounds like history is about to repeat itself, the consequence could be similar to USD/CHF. Brexit is a little too heavy for my risk appetite, are any of you market warrior planning to trade that day?
militarymonk
Quoting Pleiadian
You are just regurgitating the fear tactics of politicians

Look on the bright side our exports will become cheaper, so what we manufacture for export will be in greater demand and that will increase employment .

Inflation is good for manufactures as it increases their margins, as opposed to deflation reducing their margins.

Carney will not raise interest rates as it will make the cost of government borrowing
unaffordable.

A cheaper GBP better exchange rates for tourists so more tourists will come to the UK.

House prices will drop,...

We import considerably more than we export. We are mainly a service based nation.

Regarding interest rates, Carney may have no choice. He said - that the next movement of interest rates will be up

We are not in recession. The last recession finished officially in the 2nd quarter of 2009.

Brexit will push the economy into recession.
GBP would be a mega breakout trade. I've been stockpiling Euros for several weeks now on any strength on GBPEUR and I've noticed I'm not the only one when I go to collect the notes. My bundle looks pretty small to all of the others in the tray that is bundled and marked up. I reckon several million Brits have stockpiled Euros and will probably sell at a -20% devaluation I know I will. For holidays in the EU I'd normally have about 1000 GBP of Euros and use card for the rest. I've got over 7500 EU and I don't expect to be holding on to that much with bailouts expected to be announced after the UK referendum
Quoting Guest
For any country deciding to leave will create supply for others to enter, we have the most dynamic open markets in the world. There will be extreme volatility during the years after a Brexit, as for Carney raising rates how will he do that? The entire continent of Europe is in a deflationary environment with negative interest rates, the far east is in deflationary environment with negative interest rates where is the inflation to justify high interest rates? The risk profile has gone up but that will only be temporary whilst investors establish...
The trade deals everyone is talking about would still have to abide to the EU regulations since that's your biggest trading partner is not going to be the other way around. You would have access to the single market but without having a saying in its regulatory process.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.85.26
Quoting gandolf13
It's just the manipulators making sure everybody thinks the vote will be too close to call, so when remain wins there is not an uprising.
East EU uprisings after 23rd because D.Cameron's misbehaving!
guys its just my opinion , brexit sounds so silly even if ppl want it i dont think gov would have let it to a referendum this easy , but it feels like its being used for a cover up on some changes . we can judge that only after the vote .
Quoting Nick.
The trade deals everyone is talking about would still have to abide to the EU regulations since that's your biggest trading partner is not going to be the other way around. You would have access to the single market but without having a saying in its regulatory process.
After 40 years of membership less than five per cent of UK businesses directly export to the EU, yet all are forced to comply with the burden of EU regulation. Far from connecting the UK to a set of economic powerhouses, EU membership has made the UK overly dependent on trading partners that are caught in a perpetual economic crisis, brought on by the euro. At the same time, by being trapped in the EU customs union, the UK has lost the ability to develop its own trading relationship with countries outside the EU
Quoting Devauxt
After 40 years of membership less than five per cent of UK businesses directly export to the EU, yet all are forced to comply with the burden of EU regulation.....
No problems exporting to other EU countries here with the same eu regulation.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.215.203
no one ever mentions the fact that we cant get rid of the unelected officials that rule our daily lives.S
so put up with fear of the unknown and trade it for democratic freedom.No thanks. The eu are scared to death of us leaving cos their gravy train will come to an end
Quoting barkie
No problems exporting to other EU countries here with the same eu regulation.
It would serve you well to read the posts properly. It is not that they can't, it is that they don't have a need to
Outside of London and the south east of England where house prices are ridiculously over inflated and need to drop substantially, can someone please explain to me why, in the event of a UK vote for Brexit, house prices in the rest of the country would immediately drop by anything between 10 and 25% as the remain propagandists would have me believe.

Why would a terraced house in inner city Liverpool, a semi detached three bedroom in suburban Nottingham or Bristol, or a cottage in rural Yorkshire suddenly plummet in value?

There is no over supply of housing stock in the UK and, as Devauxt explains above, Carney cannot raise interest rates by any meaningful margin because it will make the cost of government borrowing unaffordable. I cannot think of any other driving forces which would cause a 25% reduction in house prices outside of London and the south east.

Would someone who wants to vote for the UK to remain in the EU please give me a reasoned explanation and relieve me of my blissful ignorance.
Quoting tomase
Would someone who wants to vote for the UK to remain in the EU please give me a reasoned explanation and relieve me of my blissful ignorance.
Sterling will tank, so inflation will rise, so BOE will have to hike, so mortgage rates will soar, so house prices will plummet, housing bubble pops and UK will implode.
I have tried to get a remain supporter (any remain supporter) to put forward a reasoned explanation why we should stay, but have yet to get that

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=592918#post8956429

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8955165#post8955165
Quoting barkie
Sterling will tank, so inflation will rise, so BOE will have to hike, so mortgage rates will soar, so house prices will plummet, so UK will implode.
Or Sterling will drop, exports will rocket, inflation will rise steadily, BOE will review interest rates, mortgage rates will rise eventually, house prices will normalise, UK will take off
"Sterling will tank, so inflation will rise, so BOE will have to hike, so mortgage rates will soar, so house prices will plummet, housing bubble pops and UK will implode."

I see. So by this time next month we'll be just like Venezuela.
Quoting tomase
"Sterling will tank, so inflation will rise, so BOE will have to hike, so mortgage rates will soar, so house prices will plummet, housing bubble pops and UK will implode."

I see. So by this time next month we'll be just like Venezuela.
Yep watch doomsday preppers.
Quoting tomase
"Sterling will tank, so inflation will rise, so BOE will have to hike, so mortgage rates will soar, so house prices will plummet, housing bubble pops and UK will implode."

I see. So by this time next month we'll be just like Venezuela.
Barkie is just p****d that the UK has a chance to stick two fingers up to the EU bureaucrats, whilst he get a chance to say................. noting. It wouldn't matter if he had anything to say to the EU, they are not listening.
Vote to get out, stay in do what ever you feel it's good for you, we live in a democracy and every one is free to choose at its on will. You get to have your say on the 23rd and don't let anyone influence your decision but do your research and whatever the outcome will be everyone has to respect the decision of the majority. Either way the world would not come to an end and countries will find a way to work with each other because that's what we been doing for thousands of years.
"Barkie is just p****d that the UK has a chance to stick two fingers up to the EU bureaucrats, whilst he get a chance to say................. noting. It wouldn't matter if he had anything to say to the EU, they are not listening."

His username certainly matches the tone of his posts.
now now, Don't mock the EU afflicted. In a couple of years the Netherlands will simply be known as the nether region of the EU
Quoting Devauxt
Barkie is just p****d that the UK has a chance to stick two fingers up to the EU bureaucrats, whilst he get a chance to say................. noting. It wouldn't matter if he had anything to say to the EU, they are not listening.
Sticking up fingers and then be forced to deal with the utter, total, devastating shitstorm of economic problems like a massive housing bubble crash, years-long lack of efficient trade arrangements and widespread public dissatisfaction. Congrats pal.
Quoting Nick.
Vote to get out, stay in do what ever you feel it's good for you, we live in a democracy and every one is free to choose at its on will. You get to have your say on the 23rd and don't let anyone influence your decision but do your research and whatever the outcome will be everyone has to respect the decision of the majority. Either way the world would not come to an end and countries will find a way to work with each other because that's what we been doing for thousands of years.
Well said. The trouble is that the research that we really need to do remains hidden in the vaults of the EU Commission, never to be seen by the the likes of you or me or even MEP's representing the UK - the current TTIP deals/negotiations being a prime example. They are so secretive that even if I asked my MEP what details they cover that could affect this country, he or she would be forbidden by EU dictat to reveal anything. We will simply be presented with an EU Directive or Regulation after it is a fait accompli.
Quoting barkie
Sticking up fingers and then be forced to deal with the utter, total, devastating shitstorm of economic problems like a massive housing bubble crash, years-long lack of efficient trade arrangements and widespread public dissatisfaction that they created. Congrats pal.
That is a very apt description of our current situation in the EU. Couldn't have described it better myself
If the result is to exit, there will be major catastrophe around the globe:

1 - Total meltdown of the EU Finance system in less than an hour, which will affect the rest of the world like a monster Tsunami.
2 - An infectious disease created by the military will be released by automated weapons and will affect everyone human being in the planet, with an excruciating pain that will last 3 days, ending in the ugliest death anyone has ever imagined.
3 - Nuclear weapons will also automatically be launched from the US, Russia, China, Iran (yes, they have it), Pakistan, India and everyone else that have but we don't know they do.
4 - Only North Korea will survive all this, but the whole planet will be ruined so they will die a month later out of sadness, because they don't anyone else to piss off.

If the result is to stay, the same above will also happen.
Im astonished by the distortion of post BREXIT reality being peddled by Boris and Gove is almost beyond belief..
Having lost the economic argument, because David Cameron has apparently manipulated the Treasury, BoE, OECD, IMF, WTO, The WhiteHouse, the Japanese, the G7, G8, G20, thousands of economists across the globe, the major Banks, and everyone apparently except Putin? (WoW)
Well done Dave.. Another delusion of UK real influence in the world..LoL

We now have the points based immigration system. ??
Playing on the fear card in SPADES.
What a JOKE.
And this plan will fly in practice?? NOT.
Heres HARD FACTS. Do that.. we have NO CHANCE of ANY continuation of beneficial free trade renegotiation with the EU. ZERO. British workers will be be subjected to similar discrimination in Europe and so many unconsidered consequences will result that it will be disastrous. (As an example given UKs horticultural industry dependency on European cheap unskilled labor, UK wont even be able to feed itself.).
Farmers will be screwed.
The whole thing is a sick joke, driven by man-in-white-van politics , post imperial illusions of grandeur, and a lot of quite reasonably disgruntled voters walking blindfoded into loss of job security, degrading of civil and human rights,being led by the nose by a deeply biased British media for years. ( as example .. Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism tell the story: 45% of 928 referendum articles it studied were in favour of leaving while 27% backed the remain case.) .. accurately reflecting the views of the media owners.

UK voters are making a free decision.. Yeah..Right.. LoL
My grandsons Hamster has a better grasp of the big picture.

My skill is as a Trader. Getting the odds right and the risk/reward ratio..
And BREXIT is trade risk/reward nobrainer that no sane UK citizen would take.

Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Well at least we can import our cranberry sauce from Canada.
Apparently "the Treasury, BoE, OECD, IMF, WTO, The White House, the Japanese, the G7, G8, G20, thousands of economists across the globe, the major banks" had no foresight of the impending crash of 2008. Why should we believe their "foresight" now?

The "HARD FACTS" you refer to are not facts at all - they are your opinions.
Quoting cliffedwards
"
We now have the points based immigration system. ??
Playing on the fear card in SPADES.
What a JOKE.
And this plan will fly in practice?? NOT.
................... (As an example given UKs horticultural industry dependency on European cheap unskilled labor, UK wont even be able to feed itself.).
Farmers will be screwed.
The whole thing is a sick joke, driven by man-in-white-van politics , post imperial illusions of grandeur"
What planet are you on?? A points based system would allow the country to choose the skills it needs and reject the skills it doesn't. Works pretty damn well for Australia. Why can't it work for the UK? Please do explain.

Regarding your comment about " man-in-white-van politics , post imperial illusions of grandeur" I am sure those who are supporting the Brexit would take issue with you on that . From my experience on the street in the UK, Brexit is supported by all walks of life here. Your comments only show that you have not got the slightest grasp of the issues in the UK
Quoting Devauxt
What planet are you on?? A points based system would allow the country to choose the skills it needs and reject the skills it doesn't. Works pretty damn well for Australia. Why can't it work for the UK? Please do explain.
Single market access with a points based system is a no-no.
UK without access to the single market --> BOOM !
Quoting tomase
Apparently "the Treasury, BoE, OECD, IMF, WTO, The White House, the Japanese, the G7, G8, G20, thousands of economists across the globe, the major banks" had no foresight of the impending crash of 2008. Why should we believe their "foresight" now?.
Well hey.. lets not believe anybody with expertise and experience.
Lets just keep watching Coronation Street and EastEnders and get our expert opions from Bert the plasterer and Bill the used car salesman down in the local pub.. Or better still alleged ex trader Nigel Farage celeb Journalist Boris, and discredited Education minister Gove. You seriously want to believe them???? Or live under government run by that crew?
Dont Start me!!

Quoting tomase
The "HARD FACTS" you refer to are not facts at all - they are your opinions.
Your right.. tomase Opinions are like A**H***s Everybodys got one.
But whats great about our business.. is that while most people fly them in pubs and internet forums.. Traders put the $$ behind their opinions..
Thats not a daily test that normal folk have to do.
[quote=Devauxt;8957267]A points based system ..Works pretty damn well for Australia. Why can't it work for the UK? Please do explain.

Not a problem Devauxt..
Australia has TWICE the immigration pressure PER HEAD as the UK..
They are on their own.. and above them they have 500 billion potential immigrats pending from SE Asia and China. Yeah?

They are NOT part of an integrated free market system and they are NOT the UK.

You want to model your NEW post BREXIT world on NORWAY?? Switzerland??? Australia??? I know what planet Im living on.
Im just astonished that anyone can equate the UK, with these fringe economies...and serious suggest that policies appropriate to their circumstances have any significance for GB?
The name of the country is GREAT Britian.. Its not a bloody ex-colony.
Quoting barkie
Single market access with a points based system is a no-no.
UK without access to the single market --> BOOM !
Wishful thinking on your part Barkie. I'm sure there will be issues and pitfalls, but as I understand it, the EU is not the centre of world trade and is never likely to be. I'm also sure that German tech and Auto companies like the VW group and those with French and Spanish agricultural interests would want swift negotiations tariffs or no tariffs. But then tariffs are a two way thing
Quoting cliffedwards
Quoting Devauxt
A points based system ..Works pretty damn well for Australia. Why can't it work for the UK? Please do explain.

Not a problem Devauxt..
Australia has TWICE the immigration pressure PER HEAD as the UK..
They are NOT part of an integrated free market system and they are NOT the UK.

You want to model your NEW post BREXIT world on NORWAY?? Switzerland??? Australia??? I know what planet Im living on.
Im just astonished that anyone can equate the UK, with these fringe economies...and serious suggest that policies appropriate
...

I'm sure that someone has already mentioned this to you, but the Brexit is not about trade with the EU, it is about regaining control of all aspects of our daily lives that the EU seems to think it should have control over. You seem to persist with this Free Market crap, whilst ignoring the real issues for the people of the UK

MaxDoom wrote this little piece for you.....If everyone did only practical things and nothing emotional much of the worlds last 200 years of progress wouldn't exist....
As for this vote, I am from England and live in England and have done from before the common market (that predates the EU thing) and the common exchange rate etc.
People that have not lived here do not understand what the exit vote is all about, it is not and has never been about practicality. The vote has not been approached correctly by either camp and has fallen to the web of lies and shameless claims from politicians who all have a separate agenda and are frightened of change.
To understand where the concept of the UK leaving the EU comes from you have to understand what the UK has been through at the hands of our politicians over the decades....
We had a common market that allowed free trade with a good number of countries in it - it worked it was fine but then the meddling started... let's have an exchange rate policy that stops the currencies getting too far apart (well in particular the German Mark) the plan was simple if a rate got push to much all the countries involved would help out by either buying or selling that currency to keep it within a range. Then one fine day the GBP moved out of range, the UK spent £8billion (a huge sum then) in a few hours before giving up trying to control the rate, whilst all those partner countries did nothing, not one thing to help.....
Since then we have the ever enlarged EU with it's over sized layer of government that wishes to control all the countries that:
a) sets laws and regulations that we must all follow - and regularly fines us for not doing so - yet the other countries don't follow them and don't get fined etc for not doing so either - just look at disabled access, health and safety, etc in public and holiday buildings in the UK compared with France, Spain, Italy, etc
b) the EU refused to reduce it's six billion a year budget (yes that is just to run the EU government) by a single EURO when austerity hit Europe.
c) has eroded our law courts by constantly issuing new laws and over turning uk law decisions.
d) has shamelessly allowed EU countries to watch non-EU migration across the EU countries to allow refugees and immigrants to try to enter the UK despite being under the same EU law that says they should process them in the first EU country they land.
e) tells the UK that it must pay EU migrants working in the UK child allowances for their children and family who don't even live in the UK..
the EU is an unnecessary layer of government that pays fat salaries and stupid allowances to many many politicians who do nothing for it, they are unaccountable and as a government organisation are where most western governments were 30 years ago in organisation, accountability and control. The UK vote has no say at the table other than to veto a few things, because most of the EU countries are not net contributors and all want the same things - give me, give me....

add to this the UK politicians who have lied over and over to the public about our control over the EU for their own political agenda, Blair for instance insisted that the Lisbon treaty which he sign without government debate would have no binding implications on the Uk - what a crock of shot that turned out to be.... the labour government also waived a veto to stop Romanian migrants from coming to this country, saying they won't come - guess what here in tens and tens of thousand after just a few years.... so our own government cannot be trusted to make decisions on our behalf with the EU... most times they are just laying a smooth path for their own post-political career.

With regards to migration, everyone sees the UK as a place to go, get benefits, housing, jobs etc. the NET number of persons now coming to the UK every year is greater than that of some of our cities, that means we need to be building a new city every year just to house them, without taking into account our own organic growth. - guess what we don't and can't build that many houses each year. Our planning system is now so overwhelmed it is in complete meltdown across the country, made harder still by the EU now wanting to tell us where we can and can't build in the UK. Everyone assumes that because we are a financially stable country we can provide all these jobs and houses etc... well there is a limit, we are an island after all and have limited resources and space. Already our road and rail networks are completely f*d and we simply do not have the space to build a new one, so we keep adding to the f*d ones making them worse still.

So as a country we have had decades of moaning about the EU, wanting out of the EU and simply wanting to make our own rules and not get fined by some numbnuts in the EU for doing our own thing. Until now the politicians have not allowed us such a decision. But the current prime minister was on the back foot going into the last election and he promised it to get over the line, but in reality he does not want the vote, never did, because he wants a big fat job when he leaves and the EU effects the multinational businesses and that's where he will want to make his money later on.
Now he promised us a vote based upon a completely reformed EU, but in reality the reforms he has got offer the UK nothing of any use it is just spam. So here is the big thing, IF as according to the President of the USA, the EU ministers, the UK government, the UN, EU, US security chiefs it is vital that we stay in the EU because otherwise everything including the plague is coming our way - then why did they refuse to offer any proper concessions to keep the UK in it? if they really believed the EU is f*d without us then they would have offered something, anything, but no they collectively hate us and it is their nature to give us nothing now, and nothing in the future so staying is not tenable unless we want to be a fully fledged part of the EU and give up every last bit of sovereignty that we have.
as for all the scare mongering about time to negotiate agreements, it's just non-sense you really thing Mercedes, Audi, Nissan, Toyota, the tobaccos, the finances houses etc are suddenly going to be happy to say we can't do business with you anymore? They do really good business here they will pressure to see agreements made in good time, it's not that hard we had them before.

I could go on..... but the reality is if you had lived here for the last 30-40 years then you would know what the british people know, so much does not get into the world press....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8955165#post8955165
Quoting Devauxt
Wishful thinking on your part Barkie. I'm sure there will be issues and pitfalls, but as I understand it, the EU is not the centre of world trade and is never likely to be.
2013 WTO Export Stats (values expressed in Euro)

EU 2415B
USA 1628B
China 1817B
Japan 750B

Europe is the world's largest exporter of manufactured goods and services, and is itself the biggest export market for around 80 countries.

"As you understand it..? "
Yeah I think thats the problem.
Seriously guys I think it's pretty darn naive to think that Brexit won't cause any negative concecuences to the overall economy which is humming along pretty good for some time now.
Should the leave happen it will be a set back but how big its anyone's guess. The problem is that all this is going to come at the expense of the working fellow who relies on a permanent job to feed its family the taxpayer basically, not at any of these crooked politicians or the rich.
Quoting Nick.
Seriously guys I think it's pretty darn naive to think that Brexit won't cause any negative concecuences to the overall economy which is humming along pretty good for some time now.
Should the leave happen it will be a set back but how big its anyone's guess. The problem is that all this is going to come at the expense of the working fellow who relies on a permanent job to feed its family the taxpayer basically, not at any of these crooked politicians or the rich.
Thanks mate.. some Common Bl**dy Sense at LAST....
Quoting cliffedwards
2013 WTO Export Stats (values expressed in Euro)

EU 2415B
USA 1628B
China 1817B
Japan 750B

Europe is the world's largest exporter of manufactured goods and services, and is itself the biggest export market for around 80 countries.

"As you understand it..? "
Yeah I think thats the problem.
In terms of importers of goods, the EU is ranked No2.The USA is ranked No1 with China as No3. Germany on its own accounts for nearly a third of EU imports, with the UK accounting for 25% AND France representing 20% approx
My broker has issued Margin increase notices in two stages this month for any GBP pair.

On another note - The Irish had two bites to ratify the treaty of Lisbon because they choked on the first one. I'm guessing if the Brexit vote goes against what the powers that be want another messy meal will be served up to ensure voters get it right.

What do the powers that be want ? A gravy train of course. And where is the station ? That's your homework.
Quoting Devauxt
In terms of importers of goods, the EU is ranked No2.The USA is ranked No1 with China as No3. Germany on its own accounts for nearly a third of EU imports, with the UK accounting for 25% AND France representing 20% approx
When you quote statistics.. please quote your source.
My source is 2013 WTO/EuroStat which do not not agree with your figures.

Exports Imports
EU 2415 2188
USA 1688 2079
China 1817 1716 (All in Billions Euro)
.
So heres some simpler stuff you also probably didnt know...

The EU is the largest economy in the world.
The EU is the world's largest trading block.
The EU is the world’s largest trader of manufactured goods and services.
The EU first in both inbound and outbound international investments
The EU is the top trading partner for 80 countries.
By comparison the US is the top trading partner for a little over 20 countries.

WHICH BIT OF THIS DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND.
Not for long!
Quoting cliffedwards
When you quote statistics.. please quote your source.
My source is 2013 WTO/EuroStat which do not not agree with your figures.

Exports Imports
EU 2415 2188
USA 1688 2079
China 1817 1716 (All in Billions Euro)
.
So heres some simpler stuff you also probably didnt know...

The EU is the largest economy in the world.
The EU is the world's largest trading...
Sorry to burst your bubble, the important thing for an exporting nation, is importing nations (that old concept of Supply and demand) and not the size of your truncheon. So by that measure, in terms of importers of goods, the EU is ranked No2.The USA is ranked No1 with China as No3. Germany on its own accounts for nearly a third of EU imports, with the UK accounting for 25% AND France representing 20% approx.

There are potentially another 200 nations that the UK could trade with, none of whom wish to stifle our sovereignty, interfere in our daily live and undermine our courts. None of this will without risk, but for nearly 50% of the electorate, it seems to be the right choice. Even the President of the EU Donald Tusk said yesterday "The European Union should abandon its "utopian dreams" of ever-closer integration to combat rising Euroscepticism". I think is way too late on that one.
Quoting cliffedwards
When you quote statistics.. please quote your source.
My source is 2013 WTO/EuroStat which do not not agree with your figures..
Sorry I missed this part of your post.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2087rank.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_imports
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.165.224
in the event of brexit, can anyone here

1. name the countries that would be so keen to trade with GB immediately (Obama already gave his word regarding USA)?
2. name the European countries that would allow visa free entrance to holders of British passports?

I would be very pleased to know as I am sitting on the fence at the moment.
The commonweath countries to start.

Why would European countries suddenly insist on a visa? Which ones needed a visa before?
It would hit their tourist trades which many rely on.
Quoting Guest
in the event of brexit, can anyone here

1. name the countries that would be so keen to trade with GB immediately (Obama already gave his word regarding USA)?
2. name the European countries that would allow visa free entrance to holders of British passports?

I would be very pleased to know as I am sitting on the fence at the moment.
Obama won't be around for long and Trump will be happy to deal with the UK. It would probably be better to ask which countries would not be happy to trade with the UK?

If visas are required for European travel, one has to remember that visas can be bilateral. I'm sure that Spain, Italy and France won't want anything to restrict the British tourists
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.165.224
thanks for the answers, gandolf and deauxt, but I was thinking more about working in Europe - Lovemore Sibanda (quote#74)
Isn't London one of the biggest tourist attractions in Europe? You put visas in place and the Queen minus well move to the Netherlands.
Quoting Guest
thanks for the answers, gandolf and deauxt, but I was thinking more about working in Europe - Lovemore Sibanda (quote#74)
If we bring in work permits then it seems reasonably safe to assume EU countries will do to, however the UK and EU companies will still want skilled workers, so hopefully they can be obtained without too much trouble.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.165.224
I don't have any problem with being a skilled worker, my c.v. is longer than my arm. but getting a work permit is a hassle for those of us living in remote areas hundreds of kilometres from embassies or consulates. That's why I used the green card thing to get into USA from Heathrow.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.X.14.146
They dare not.

The Crow (-_-)
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.184.158
Lets wait for the EM football games in France. If new terror attacks will happen, security issues might become much more relevant for the voters than economic issues, which would surely help the Brexit promoters. With no terror attacks until 23rd, it will probably remains an unclear issue until the end.
Several comments have included the advice of the IMF. Well despite her massive tax free salary and her massive tax free expense account that does not require receipts, Christine Legarde has been charged with Fraud and embezzlement. http://investmentwatchblog.com/head-of-the-imf-christine-lagarde-in-court-charged-with-embezzlement-and-fraud/ So should we really listen to these so call experts. She's just another disgraced leader of the IMF. Seems par for the course in these positions of high power these days.
My Inner World Creates My Outer World...
Europe is Europe intertwined with political clap trap which is why the UK loves Europe for trade only the politics is a nonsense, white noise that ruins business. Instead of the EU politicos saying please UK we want you to stay your vote is important, our business with you is generating record surpluses whilst other countries are not buying from us, we need you to generate growth. No the EU nations into the run up to this referendum have been dispicable, their leaders threatening us with tariffs, with taxes, with sniping about they're glad we're leaving but finishing the sentence with once you are gone there is no coming back. If that who the remainers want to stay with we are destined to go over the cliff, how on earth can we work with these odious people from the EU making up the 27 other nations? What have we done to upset them? All we have done is buy their goods to keep their people in jobs.
What hell man get off your high horse!!! UK is not the centre of the universe. You buy European made products because they are of good quality, nobody is forcing anyone's hand. The whole point for this integration is so we can trade with each other more freely and free of tariffs. And why rely on Pakistan and Bangladesh for work force when you can get good skilled Eastern Europeans workers right in you backyard. This people work like hell and filled just about any type of unpleasant work in this country and once the recession comes they go back to their country and wait for the next wave of economic growth like the Polish did in 2008. The Asians once they step into this country you can forget about it wherever they move in other people move out.
I swear the ignorance around here its pretty darn amazing!
Quoting ettrader
Europe is Europe intertwined with political clap trap which is why the UK loves Europe for trade only the politics is a nonsense, white noise that ruins business. Instead of the EU politicos saying please UK we want you to stay your vote is important, our business with you is generating record surpluses whilst other countries are not buying from us, we need you to generate growth. No the EU nations into the run up to this referendum have been dispicable, their leaders threatening us with tariffs, with taxes, with sniping about they're glad we're...
Fascinating, UKIP/Brexiteers hate manufacturing and want Brexit to destroy manufacturing in the UK.

Patrick Minford of Ukip & the Leave Campaign says that brexit will destroy manufacturing in the UK !?

Professor Minford, of Cardiff Business School, has previously advocated “running down” the UK auto industry – which would include plants such as Sunderland’s Nissan.
Giving evidence to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in 2012, he said: “It is perfectly true that if you remove protection of the sort that has been given particularly to the car industry and other manufacturing industries inside the protective wall, you will have a change in the situation facing that industry, and you are going to have to run it down."

“It will be in your interests to do it, just as in the same way we ran down the coal and steel industries. These things happen as evolution takes place in your economy.”
Quoting Nick.
What hell man get off your high horse!!! UK is not the centre of the universe. You buy European made products because they are of good quality, nobody is forcing anyone's hand. The whole point for this integration is so we can trade with each other more freely and free of tariffs. And why rely on Pakistan and Bangladesh for work force when you can get good skilled Eastern Europeans workers right in you backyard. This people work like hell and filled just about any type of unpleasant work in this country and once the recession comes they go back...
Quoting Nick.
Uk's bigest trading partner is the EU roughly 50% which means that if the Uk were to get out they would have to pay a tax to do business... also other countries that trade with the whole EU have their offices located in London do to a lower tax rate and this is why London regained status as the biggest financial centre in the world leaving the EU would force those companies to relocate, Scotland would want to stay in the EU which means another referendum and most likely Norten Ireland will follow... Need I go on?
Uk leaving the EU would very likely...
Hmm I don't think you read the quote Sir you just replied with a tirade of abuse. The point being if we are regarded as being part of Europe show some respect, with the surpluses we create we are one of main economies keeping other EU countries from slipping into recession. Yet the leaders of these countries are more focused on scaring the living daylights out of UK citizens about voting in the referendum with threats.

You have gone completely off on a tangent about Bangladesh. What planet are you on man?
So you gona come here and tell everyone that this whole Brexit thing is about lack of respect on their part and has nothing to do with emigration reform, regulations, trade agreements a bit of national pride and many other things.
Just kiss my bottom and I'll think about it.
Mate I'm definitely not on the same planet as you nor do I want to be if you want to put it that way.
Quoting ettrader
Hmm I don't think you read the quote Sir you just replied with a tirade of abuse. The point being if we are regarded as being part of Europe show some respect, with the surpluses we create we are one of main economies keeping other EU countries from slipping into recession. Yet the leaders of these countries are more focused on scaring the living daylights out of UK citizens about voting in the referendum with threats.

You have gone completely off on a tangent about Bangladesh. What planet are you on man?
If UK votes to leave the Union then this will mean many doubts about the survival of the EU and also even more doubts about the survival of the Euro single currency. Taking the Euro closer to another major crisis is the primary issue about Brexit for currency traders and forex analysts. Spreading the costs of industry policies (such as CAP) amongst fewer players could be the last straw for many member countries. Also the sheer size of Europe is irrelevant to the debate.
Quoting Nick.
What hell man get off your high horse!!! UK is not the centre of the universe. You buy European made products because they are of good quality, nobody is forcing anyone's hand. The whole point for this integration is so we can trade with each other more freely and free of tariffs.......
I swear the ignorance around here its pretty darn amazing!
I don't think for a moment that the Brexiters believe the UK is the centre of the universe.

I don't deny that some products we import from Europe are of good quality, especially white goods and cars from Germany. However, Europe’s taxpayers hand over €58 billion in subsidies to farmers (5.4% of the EU population) This minority accounts for only 1.6% of the EU's GDP, yet they get 47% of the EU's budget through CAP handouts. CAP is a double whammy for your wallet. Taxpayers fork out billions in subsidies then pay again when CAP artificially inflates food prices. CAP artificially shields farmers from healthy competition hindering the evolution of more modern, more efficient agriculture. By ignoring the rules of supply and demand, the Common Agricultural Policy is hugely wasteful. It leads to overproduction, forming mountains of surplus produce. In times of economic hardship that just doesn’t make sense.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.167.2
why doesn't the surplus food get donated to Oxfam or something? the British government could also do more to help their farmers if they wanted.

"Payments to farmers[edit]

National governments within the EU make their own arrangements for implementation and for paying subsidies to farmers; in the UK this is done by the Rural Payments Agency, an executive agency of Defra.[3] Some British farmers have experienced problems due to delays in verifying how much land they have which is eligible for subsidy.[4]

The Scottish government offers farmers an online system to claim subsidies, which reduces the burden of paperwork.[5]

In non-Euro countries, payments to farmers may be made in local currency at an exchange rate set by the European Central Bank.[6]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_Farm_Payment
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-02/another-reason-vote-brexit-uk-taxpayers-biggest-funders-failed-juncker-immigration-p
Quoting barkie
Fascinating, UKIP/Brexiteers hate manufacturing and want Brexit to destroy manufacturing in the UK.

Patrick Minford of Ukip & the Leave Campaign says that brexit will destroy manufacturing in the UK !?

Professor Minford, of Cardiff Business School, has previously advocated “running down” the UK auto industry – which would include plants such as Sunderland’s Nissan.
Giving evidence to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in 2012, he said: “It is perfectly true that if you remove protection of the sort that has been given particularly to the...

As usual Barkie, you seem incapable of hearing beyond the sound bite. What he was trying to do was to educate the stupid politicians on competitive World trade and fallacy of protectionism. If you have time please listen to the man himself. I'm sure that we can all learn from him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU
Quoting Guest
I actually live in London and, over the past month have carried around a notebook and run a personal poll , all sorts of people, Barbers, Shop keepers, Nurses, Co-Workers etc.

Out of 128 people asked ... 114 were for a Brexit, 4 were for remain and the other 10 were either don't know or don't care.

The Tory owned press (read Telegraph and BBC and Channel 4) are spouting their paymasters message of remain..... everyone else seems to be seeing the writing on the wall and the writing says "BREXIT" !!

Oh and yes I was short Cable , the poll...
Also I might add what the BREXIT vote means and how it effects the rest of the world. In the long run, Britain and the world would be better off if they were to leave EU. Endless regulations by bureaucrats who are more interested in their cushy jobs with overpaid status they have in Brussels that offers very little in return in exchange for membership than it is easy to see that it is stifling growth and holding back free enterprise in the UK. How is it that the UK can't fish in their own waters, choose who to trade with or how the UK should Govern? Just the thought of ceding its sovereignty to a unaccountable bureaucracy seems like shear lunacy! EU=elitism and Globalism. A BREXIT victory is a victory against elitism, Globalism! Switzerland, the most prosperous country in the world doesn't belong in the EU and they are doing just fine.

The pros of leaving the EU

1. Better Trade deals
2. Economic prosperity
3. Sovereignty of Governance
4. Less regulation for small Businesses
5. Freedom
6. Control over their own immigration laws and decisions
7. Unrestricted access to the worlds free market
8. Fair competition for all

Cons.

1. To be governed by an organization no one understands
2. Run by people no one knows or haven't been elected who have all the power
to impose laws that aren't debated with little chance to be blocked or to be repealed
3. Stagnated Economic growth with numerous and costly regulations stifling progress
4. EU Council have no accountability and answer to no one
5. Trade barriers all but eliminating competition thus driving up the costs of goods for the common consumer
6.A country does not have to be in the EU to have trade deals with other
EU countries or in the world. (See Switzerland as the most prosperous
country in the world)
7. The cost of running the EU, with Salaries
and glutenous bureaucracy growing tens times more than other countries
GDP, is inefficient and makes decisions based on their own desire to
keep their cushy jobs.
8. Can arbitrarily raise taxes without any referendum by EU members.
9. Can arbitrarily make immigration decisions for other countries, without those countries having a say.

It is quite clear that staying in the EU is a suicide mission for Great
Britain if they decided to remain, and by exiting the EU means having
control of its future, its national identity as well as the opportunity
to compete equally in the worlds free and open markets thus allowing for
prosperity for its citizens to flourish with less regulations!
Brexit?
Why?
I dont see any clear and present danger in remain in the EU?
And huge risk to Brexit.
Why would I take those risks to my family, children and business future, by opting to for a course that Ive been warned about by the the IMF,OECD,The Treasury,G7,G8,G20,ALL of the Major Banks, (Deutche, Goldman etc) , the great majority of Major British businesses, The White House, the Japanese, Britain's NATO Partners, the vast majority of recognized Global economists is full of problems??????

And listen to the opinions and advice of clowns like Farage and Boris?
Its like ignoring your doctors/accountants/lawyers advice and listening to Bill the Plumber in the local Pub?

Or vote Brexit, because Im pissed off with the number of EUs.. Poles or French etc now in my local pub.? Why is this a problem.. And if they are causing strain on housing and health etc? ?? Why?? The EUs have and are paying MORE than their way in tax so if there are housing/ health crisis its because Westminster hasn't spent the tax they have contributed to those services.
And the Non-EU migrants that nobody is talking about? That DESPITE all the "Controls" and unfettered Sovereign "Powers" are still increasing? They have and continue to create the most enormous burden on these services.. but WITHOUT paying their way.

The whole thing is ludicrous.

Thunderheart.. WTF are you ON?
The nativity which you bring to the argument with clearly unjustified assertions, opinions and rabble rousing rhetoric is not worthy of a business forum.
What planet are you on?

Sorry.. just seen your allegedly trading from Singapore?
Obviously mainstream..LoL
Quoting cliffedwards
Brexit?
Why?
I dont see any clear and present danger in remain in the EU?
And huge risk to Brexit.
Why would I take those risks to my family, children and business future, by opting to for a course that Ive been warned about by the the IMF,OECD,The Treasury,G7,G8,G20,ALL of the Major Banks, (Deutche, Goldman etc) , the great majority of Major British businesses, The White House, the Japanese, Britains NATO Partners, the vast majority of recognized Global economists is full of problems??????

And listen to the opinions and advice of clowns...
Only 9% of the UK's GDP is derived from the EU, Yet the cost of this 9% is to have almost every aspect of our daily lives controlled by the EU. I have to thank Barkie for reminding me of Prof Patrick Minford https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU
Quoting Devauxt
Only 9% of the UK's GDP is derived from the EU, Yet the cost of this 9% is to have almost every aspect of our daily lives controlled by the EU. I have to thank Barkie for reminding me of Prof Patrick Minford https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU
Fascinating views from a man of unparalleled practical international experience as an economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance of Malawi.

LoL
Quoting cliffedwards
Fascinating views from a man of unparalleled practical international experience as an economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance of Malawi.

LoL
When you are a consultant or an advisor, your client doesn't always take your advice.
I believe that Goldman Sachs were consultants and advisors to the Greek Government

When Global growth declined from 5.4 per cent in 2010 to 3.3 per cent in 2013. This slowdown came as a complete surprise to the IMF.

When the worst crisis in over 50 years struck OECD countries in 2008, people rightly asked why they had not been warned. in the final analysis, the OECD moved with the consensus: that the situation was not as bad as it seemed. WRONG

Deutsche Bank (who has a vested interest in the EU remaining intact and the EURO remaining as the dominant EU currency), Germany’s and indeed Europe’s mightiest financial institution, and the rock on which that economy is founded. The shares have been falling, and executives have been wheeled out to try and reassure everyone that all is well. For Deutsche to be in trouble is bad enough. But here’s the real problem. If Deutsche does go down, it is taking the euro down with it. Why? Because if Germany bails it out, the contrast with the punishment metered out to Greek banks will be too painful to contemplate. And yet, were it to be allowed to fail, it would be catastrophic for the German economy.

So much for unbiased or even competent expert opinions
Quoting Devauxt
Only 9% of the UK's GDP is derived from the EU, Yet the cost of this 9% is to have almost every aspect of our daily lives controlled by the EU. I have to thank Barkie for reminding me of Prof Patrick Minford https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU
Will put it on my watchlist Devaux. The issue is not whether manufacturing is good or bad (I think it's great) but that the naughty Brexiteers accuse the EU of destroying for example the steel industry while it's completely evident that it is the leave camp along with some crazy torries who intent to run it down.

So when you live for example in the heavily industrialized North East make sure you know who your enemy is otherwise you might be up for some unpleasant surprises after june 23th.
Quoting cliffedwards
Brexit?
Why?
I dont see any clear and present danger in remain in the EU?
And huge risk to Brexit.
Why would I take those risks to my family, children and business future, by opting to for a course that Ive been warned about by the the IMF,OECD,The Treasury,G7,G8,G20,ALL of the Major Banks, (Deutche, Goldman etc) , the great majority of Major British businesses, The White House, the Japanese, Britain's NATO Partners, the vast majority of recognized Global economists is full of problems??????

And listen to the opinions and advice of clowns...
Sir when you eliminate competition and drive the costs of goods for the common consumer how is that good for free market capitalism? Economics 101, is when you have competition, you also have growth! Tell me genius if you are so astute in knowing the facts, how much has the UK experienced in growth compared to the rest of the world? You haven't got a clue what you are talking about! You speak like a Globalist with no idea what is at stake! Assertions they are not? Just look at the numbers! Which I doubt you have done to make any kind of educated argument on the contrary! Why would you give over you right to govern to a bureaucracy that has no accountability or that can pass laws without the ability for its citizens to repeal or debate them? Seems to me a no brainer! Seems like you don't want to see past your own dogmatic views to be open to the possibility of what a Free England could mean. Just look at Switzerland, they are not in the EU, yet they are doing just fine. Also me being in Singapore has nothing to do with my views! I am American and have been to many countries negotiating trade agreements for the past 20 years, and by far have an intimate understanding about the EU and its asinine policies. With it's many ridiculous regulations imposed on its members states it is no surprise that the Eurozone is stagnated to the point it has countries such as GB rethinking their future position with them. Better get used to the idea of the possibility that the BREXIT campaign could prevail. In doing so will be better off in the long run. You want to go down with the sinking ship then go live in a country that wants to be in the Eu, just don't take Britain with you!
Quoting cliffedwards
Fascinating views from a man of unparalleled practical international experience as an economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance of Malawi.

LoL
And isn't it funny how he begins his speech by promoting his book part two cause part one didn't sell very well I assume since nobody payed any attention about Brexit in 2005. This guy doesn't care about no Brexit his just looking to make a quick buck you can tell by that grin on his face his an opportunist.
Quoting Devauxt
When you are a consultant or an advisor, your client doesn't always take your advice.
I believe that Goldman Sachs were consultants and advisors to the Greek Government

When Global growth declined from 5.4 per cent in 2010 to 3.3 per cent in 2013. This slowdown came as a complete surprise to the IMF.

When the worst crisis in over 50 years struck OECD countries in 2008, people rightly asked why they had not been warned. in the final analysis, the OECD moved with the consensus: that the situation was not as bad as it seemed. WRONG

Deutsche...
This is all so much BS

The trust of all your exchanges when faced with the unequivocal advice of almost EVERY credible source of international macroeconomic analysis is to cherry pick inaccuracies in the forecast history of each?. And when unable to do that, to allege bias.
And hope to discredit the worlds most expert and experienced institutions?
You and your fellow travelers have even gone so far as to suggest that its all an orchestrated conspiracy by David Cameron? ????

When earlier in this thread we discussed the importance of the EU as a world trade player.. it emerged you had no idea of the relative trade volumes or balances.
Now when you seek to scrabble to find an expert economic opinion to refute my observations, you come up with a UKIP sponsored youtube vid of an achedemic whos practical experience in international trade negotiations and markets, peaked as an economic adviser to Malawi.

Finally you mention GS and the Greeks in the context of NOT taking expert advice?
And then fail to remember that Greece TOOK Goldmans advice,and actually retained them to organised their little scam to distort their financial situation.

As a trader and analyst, I START with the facts.. and work thru research and analysis to a conclusion. Brexit in this thread appears to reverse that process. Starting with your conclusion and the cherry pick the facts to suit it.

I have no skin in the Brexit/Bremain issue. It just that on the Brexit side I see so much misleading misinformation, rabble rousing rhetoric and hysterical populism, that my instinct is that its a scam.
Quoting Devauxt
Only 9% of the UK's GDP is derived from the EU, Yet the cost of this 9% is to have almost every aspect of our daily lives controlled by the EU. I have to thank Barkie for reminding me of Prof Patrick Minford https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU
You are absolutely right! Just goes to show some like their cushy jobs too much to care about the welfare of their country for the next generation and more.
Quoting barkie
Will put it on my watchlist Devaux. The issue is not whether manufacturing is good or bad (I think it's great) but that the naughty Brexiteers accuse the EU of destroying for example the steel industry while it's completely evident that it is the leave camp along with some crazy torries who intent to run it down.

So when you live for example in the heavily industrialized North East make sure you know who your enemy is otherwise you might be up for some unpleasant surprises after june 23th.
In the case of the Steel industry, all nations in the EU along with China have played a part in the decline of the industry. I think that the EU is destroying a lot of Europe's manufacturing base. Through its protectionism, it reduces the competitiveness and efficiency of the manufacturers. Many of these manufacturers only succeed within the EU market but would not succeed in the World market.

British Leyland would be a good example of where some European manufacturers will end up. Prices within the EU are falsely inflated and in the end it is the citizens of the EU who have to pay those inflated prices on top of our contribution to the EU.
Quoting cliffedwards
This is all so much BS

The trust of all your exchanges when faced with the unequivocal advice of almost EVERY credible source of international macroeconomic analysis is to cherry pick inaccuracies in the forecast history of each?. And when unable to do that, to allege bias.
And hope to discredit the worlds most expert and experienced institutions?
You and your fellow travelers have even gone so far as to suggest that its all an orchestrated conspiracy by David Cameron? ????

When earlier in this thread we discussed the importance of the...
Right! What you believe the propaganda being fed to you? Another sycophant shill brainwashed beyond reasoning supporting the Globalist agenda!
Quoting cliffedwards
Brexit?
Why?
I dont see any clear and present danger in remain in the EU?
And huge risk to Brexit.
Why would I take those risks to my family, children and business future, by opting to for a course that Ive been warned about by the the IMF,OECD,The Treasury,G7,G8,G20,ALL of the Major Banks, (Deutche, Goldman etc) , the great majority of Major British businesses, The White House, the Japanese, Britain's NATO Partners, the vast majority of recognized Global economists is full of problems??????

And listen to the opinions and advice of clowns...
Here you go! Go and fucking educate yourself! FACTS!!!!!!

Your stupidity is not worthy on this business forum!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0
Quoting cliffedwards
This is all so much BS

The trust of all your exchanges when faced with the unequivocal advice of almost EVERY credible source of international macroeconomic analysis is to cherry pick inaccuracies in the forecast history of each?. And when unable to do that, to allege bias.
And hope to discredit the worlds most expert and experienced institutions?
You and your fellow travelers have even gone so far as to suggest that its all an orchestrated conspiracy by David Cameron? ????

When earlier in this thread we discussed the importance of the...
Well said mate.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.77.166
Well said Thunderheart! Brexit is needed in my view.
Quoting Nick.
Well said mate.
Thanks Nick.
Quoting cliffedwards
This is all so much BS

The trust of all your exchanges when faced with the unequivocal advice of almost EVERY credible source of international macroeconomic analysis is to cherry pick inaccuracies in the forecast history of each?. And when unable to do that, to allege bias.

And hope to discredit the worlds most expert and experienced institutions?
You and your fellow travelers have even gone so far as to suggest that its all an orchestrated conspiracy by David Cameron? ????
.
On the contrary, you presented these institutions as all knowing and perfect and I demonstrated that they are flawed as the next guy and most have a vested interest in the EU remaining together.


Quoting cliffedwards
This is all so much BS

When earlier in this thread we discussed the importance of the EU as a world trade player.. it emerged you had no idea of the relative trade volumes or balances.
Again you are incorrect, You used the wrong data to analyse. Exporting nations are interested in importing nations. You tried to imply that the size of the EU's exports was of some relevance to the UK's exports, when actually it is their import capacity that is relevant

Quoting cliffedwards
Finally you mention GS and the Greeks in the context of NOT taking expert advice?
And then fail to remember that Greece TOOK Goldmans advice,and actually retained them to organised their little scam to distort their financial situation.
I actually left you to draw your own conclusion on this one. I simply provided the connection, but you have provided a very credible answer. Thank you
Quoting Devauxt
On the contrary, you presented these institutions as all knowing and perfect and I demonstrated that they are flawed as the next guy and most have a vested interest in the EU remaining together.
I quoted the list as an indication of the extreme preponderance of informed opinion.
The words "all knowing and perfect" are yours. As to their analysis being as "flawed as the next guy" Doesnt that depend who the "next guy is? Farage? Gove? You? Thunderbird? Bill the plumber?
Dont think so..LoL


Quoting Devauxt
Again you are incorrect, You used the wrong data to analyse. Exporting nations are interested in importing nations. You tried to imply that the size of the EU's exports was of some relevance to the UK's exports, when actually it is their import capacity that is relevant
Wrong data?? I gave you both Export AND Import data.
I didnt "analyse" any of it except to show from reputable published statistics that you were wrong when you wrote..
Quoting Devauxt
.. as I understand it, the EU is not the center of world trade and is never likely to be.
Quoting ThunderHeart
Here you go! Go and fucking educate yourself! FACTS!!!!!! Your stupidity is not worthy on this business forum!
For a member that peppers his "Business Forum" posts with all of the following...
FKing moron / Fking Idiots / Selfish a$$hole! /Major D-bag frumper /Fcking Communist /

I guess Im lucky to just need to be told to "Go and Fucking educate "..(myself)..
and be branded as "Stupid".

Have a lie down, its just a phase.. youll get over it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-02/another-reason-vote-brexit-uk-taxpayers-biggest-funders-failed-juncker-immigration-p

From: Occidental Observer The Fall of London, by Andrew Joyce: "...London is the epicenter of this great dispossession. By 2001 the British population of London had already fallen to a catastrophic 58%. By 2011 the figure was 45%. We can safely assume that by 2021 the British will be a rarity on the increasingly desolate streets of what was once a shining beacon of the genius of European civilization."
[...]
"As the population of the city has changed, so has its social character. We see the familiar and predictable increase in the crimes that accompany a multicultural onslaught. In the last year alone there has been an overall increase in violent crime of 27%, with a 36% increase in sex crimes and a 14% increase in homicide. Bear in mind that this is an annual increase, and that if we were to compare present crime statistics with those from a more ethnically homogenous era, the true image of decay would be even more profound."
Quoting cliffedwards
I quoted the list as an indication of the extreme preponderance of informed opinion.
The words "all knowing and perfect" are yours.
And I was informing you that they are likely to get it wrong as they are to get it right in the case of the Brexit. You seemed to hold these organisations in high regard.


Quoting cliffedwards
Wrong data?? I gave you both Export AND Import data.
I didnt "analyse" any of it except to show from reputable published statistics that you were wrong when you wrote..
And I responded with two links showing the EU as the 2nd largest importer
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2087rank.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ies_by_imports
How are we doing Devaux.. think we can get this news thread up to 120/130 replies before close tonight? LoL LoL LoL. Whats the record in a week?
Look - its been interesting to cross swords with you., and we best agree to disagree..
Thank you for being a reasoned and polite protagonist..

I still think youre wrong and misguided.. as Im sure you do of me. NP.
But we have exchanged views in a civilized way without recourse to name calling or abuse.
A blow for the good guys whatever side they are on.
Stay well

C
Enjoyable exchange cliffedwards

“For what do we live, but to make sport for our neighbours, and laugh at them in our turn?”
Pride and Prejudice.. is this a subtext for LEAVE??

Only joking.. you know your classics.
I'm sure this debate will continue with passion. It is such an emotive subject
  • Comment #119
  • Quote
  • Edited Jun 4, 2016 2:24am Jun 3, 2016 10:20am | Edited Jun 4, 2016 2:24am
Quoting cliffedwards
For a member that peppers his "Business Forum" posts with all of the following...
FKing moron / Fking Idiots / Selfish a$$hole! /Major D-bag frumper /Fcking Communist /

I guess Im lucky to just need to be told to "Go and Fucking educate "..(myself)..
and be branded as "Stupid".

Have a lie down, its just a phase.. youll get over it.
Hey you started it buddy! Take responsibility for your own words before trying to assume the high moral ground! I am just giving back what you gave me!

Next time you want to state an opinion try not by invalidating what others may know or think at same time insulting them! In other words practice what you preach! I guess you are lacking debating skills because your arrogance blinds you from the facts. Shall we also add obtuse to the list, seeing you were completely dismissive with the valid points I raised about BREXIT?

The wussification of Britain is all about laying down, which doesn't surprise me given your current rhetoric and the state of of all things currently happening to Britain. I laydown for no one! You want to challenge me, do so at your own peril! I am willing to die for freedom regardless of any attachments to what we call this thing Humanity! Better to die for freedom than to live on my knees and you sir are no exception to this rule, as we been battling pacifists, globalists sympathizers such as yourself for quite some time. So go ahead, have at it, but at the end of day, it is people like me who fight for your freedoms to express what ever you want regardless if they are absurd or not!
Quoting barkie
Single market access with a points based system is a no-no.
UK without access to the single market --> BOOM !

Fistly with an implosion would come job losses, mostly the minimum pay workers of eastern european origin would be hit first with no access to welfare (4 years residence grants them this) so quite a few people would have to leave under there own steam, the rental market will take a hit, as for food britain can`t support itself but thanks to chinese investment africa has another avenue of products, we already buy from kenya and a few other regions, maybe with cameron sitting on his hands at the moment a do-er will come forth, if euro want to get snotty then suddenly they are going to have an oversupply of products on their hands, it may even make keeping british steel viable if the lb drops, it`s been an over-priced currency for quite some time, shedding scotland would save money and people can easily hop across the border to raid the celts for once!! ahem. There are more sides to this coin than two, just depends on whether boris johnson has his act together, he`s already putting together a new cabinet, more than what david cameron is currently doing.
scale in, scale out
Quoting rotherwell
Fistly with an implosion would come job losses, mostly the minimum pay workers of eastern european origin would be hit first with no access to welfare (4 years residence grants them this) so quite a few people would have to leave under there own steam, the rental market will take a hit, as for food britain can`t support itself but thanks to chinese investment africa has another avenue of products, we already buy from kenya and a few other regions, maybe with cameron sitting on his hands at the moment a do-er will come forth, if euro want to get...
Good observation
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.235.243
@ guest 182.23: don't count your chickens before they hatch:

'International trade

There are EU regulations to follow if you are exporting or importing eggs.

Eggs and egg products for import and export need to be classified with a commodity code.

Find out how to register as a trader to export agricultural products

Find out how to apply for a licence to export/import agricultural products

Find out how to apply for an export health certificate.

The European Community publishes a list of countries from which EU member states may import eggs for human consumption. You are not allowed to import eggs from countries not on the list."

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/eggs-trade-regulations
nothing will happen on a Brexit vote the EU has too much to lose, some backroom deal will appear after extreme volatility for period after. Reason: 30 Billion Euro per annum membership fee, 105 Billion Euro annual trade surplus with UK, assistance with bailouts in Italy, Greece, possibly more. So trade that lot - will be a challenge
Quoting ettrader
nothing will happen on a Brexit vote the EU has too much to lose, some backroom deal will appear after extreme volatility for period after. Reason: 30 Billion Euro per annum membership fee, 105 Billion Euro annual trade surplus with UK, assistance with bailouts in Italy, Greece, possibly more. So trade that lot - will be a challenge
I like your thinking. I'm sure that the EU will pull something out of the bag to try and sway the vote after Merkel's attempt to bully the UK electorate ( http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3621972/Now-Merkel-wades-EU-referendum-debate-warning-Britain-won-t-good-result-vote-leave.html) gets her the opposite reaction to the one intended and proves that she has no clue how the Brits react to bullys
Quoting ettrader
Reason: 30 Billion Euro per annum membership fee ....
Wow, that's 600 million per week mate, the sky is the limit, just WOW!
Actually £18 Billion per annum, then minus the rebate and grants. Not cheap I agree. The actuals is £13 Billion per annum net. Which is 16.5 Billion Euro, equates to 317 Million Euro per week. Add the annual trade surplus etc (2015 it was 105 Billion Euro with Germany,France,Hooland,Spain,Italy alone) . Point being it is a bloody goldmine for the EU, a Brexit vote will happen but leaving will not happen.

The threats of sanctions, trade wars, tariffs - all nonsense they'll lose free money the EU are an awkward bunch but they're not stupid. Just vote Brexit, trade it (it'll be hot), deals will be made and another referendum.

Straight after the referendum, distressed southern EU states one by one demanding bailouts. They need the UK in otherwise Germany the lender of last resort banking system will be under stress. So the paradox is that the Strongerin vote is by voting Brexit because a deal that the majority are prepared to accept will be on the table to reel us back in. The weaker in the EU vote will be ticking the Remain box - the EU will think we are idiots.
Quoting ettrader
Actually £18 Billion per annum, then minus the rebate and grants. Not cheap I agree. The actuals is £13 Billion per annum net. Which is 16.5 Billion Euro, equates to 317 Million Euro per week. Add the annual trade surplus etc (2015 it was 105 Billion Euro with Germany,France,Hooland,Spain,Italy alone) . Point being it is a bloody goldmine for the EU, a Brexit vote will happen but leaving will not happen.

The threats of sanctions, trade wars, tariffs - all nonsense they'll lose free money the EU are an awkward bunch but they're not stupid....
You are speculating of course on what may happen in backroom deals. The facts still remain about the actual details and what the BREXIT vote in the EU means to GB, it's citizens and to rest of the world. (as the saying goes, the devil is in the details) The fear mongering is just part of the EU supporters game, but if GB does decide to leave, which BTW with the latest poll suggesting a 4% margin of error pulling ahead, then it is easy to see that this is going to go down to the wire with many debates yet to play out before June 23rd.

The irony for David Cameron is that it was his idea in the first place to put this vote to a referendum, as a gambit to the EU for a better bargaining chip or as a threat for a better position at the negotiating table. What he didn't count on is the storm that ensued within his own party to the point that is fractured beyond repair. Either way the vote goes, David Cameron is toast, with most certainty that an internal war within the house of commons will rage on for quite some time! Who benefits from that? Its the people who end up suffering in the end, not the so called politicians who are suppose to do their jobs.

Also I may add, that if BREXIT prevails, there will still be a transition period to take effect that goes into 2020, plenty of time to get it's affairs in order. The question that many like you are suggesting, and I will acknowledge is a valid point, is what will happen in those 4 years. This is where the fear is a little justified in terms of Britain's economy, and in which there is no science or for that matter a known predictor to anticipate such an outcome.

Also consider all those who are quick to dismiss as one poster on this site suggested, that the EU is an experiment for the NWO, as just conspiracy theories, think again! The same thing happened when the rise of Nazi Germany was allowed and calls from pacifistic leftists for neutrality and calm remained as the narrative of the day. We all know how that story ended. Now here we are again, facing a similar situation with regards to the issue of Turkey's application to the EU, immigration, and trade, as the apathetic remain camp, who through their own complacency are actually unaware of what is developing under their noses, as the link below suggests as one example of what the EU is proposing among their many asinine proposals should be concerned; to think of the absurdity in which the EU is proposing should be sounding off the alarm bells to be awakening even to the deaf. To think that you would need a Govt. issued ID to log into Facebook to express free speech is beyond absurd, it is downright sinister. Once free speech is attacked and limited then all bets are off the table!

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/02/former-commie-ec-commissioner-calls-people-log-onto-youtube-national-electronic-id/
Quoting Guest
in the event of brexit, can anyone here

1. name the countries that would be so keen to trade with GB immediately (Obama already gave his word regarding USA)?
2. name the European countries that would allow visa free entrance to holders of British passports?

I would be very pleased to know as I am sitting on the fence at the moment.
First of all it doesn't matter what Obama says, he is a lame duck and out of office by next January. His comments is nothing more than fulfilling the elitist hogwash agenda PR campaign to appease his masters. If Trump becomes president, then you can count on the USA, as well as WTO members , as well as EU members Germany (Auto imports will not change). The misconception that a country has to be an EU member to trade with with EU member states is simply a fallacy!

2. If the USA enjoys visa free access to the EU, then why can't Britain? And the USA is not part of the EU. So in other words if the EU decides to impose visa requirements for British passports holders as a result of leaving the EU, it would only be seen as retribution for not remaining in the EU. How would that go over in the PR dept for the remaining countries?

If you are truly on the fence on the issue, may I recommend a movie that IMO is very objective in the views it presents?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0
Quoting ThunderHeart
me being in Singapore has nothing to do with my views! I am American.
OK. Full Disclosure. NP
Quoting cliffedwards
OK. Full Disclosure. NP
Way to cherry pick and ignore the rest of the context in order to make something fit your paradigm! Figures, why would I expect anything more from a Remain supporter? You people have no soul or heart, and truly have no clue what this vote actually means as it relates to individual freedoms, because in essence you were always slaves and knowing anything else would be foreign to you.

As I said before, ignoring and being dismissive of the valid points I raised only supports my statement. Thanks for proving my point! You are a sock puppet!
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