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  • Carney's `Brexit' Headache Intensifies With Rate Outlook Schism

    From bloomberg.com

    Mark Carney could face a challenge in just over two months, regardless of whether Britons choose to stay in or quit the European Union. While the Bank of England governor has signaled a slow tightening path, and investors see no rate increase for years, a vote to stay in the EU on June 23 potentially creates a whole new backdrop. With ‘Brexit’ risk removed, markets could pull in bets for a hike, generating a new communication hurdle for the Monetary Policy Committee, which holds its monthly meeting this week. With economic growth relatively consistent -- if not stellar -- and inflation forecast to accelerate, ... (full story)

no headache - made up story - brexit has nothing to do with carney already been proven - move along please shit story from doom n berg
BoE will do nothing with rates until after the referendum.

Brexit == true is likely to cause a drop in GBP initially while the effects become understood, and that drop will cause inflation.

Brexit == false is likely to cause a lift in GBP (if you can believe the reports that the fear is depressing Sterling at the moment) and that will suppress inflation.

As for....
Quote
“Fundamentally the U.K. economy is in good shape,” said James Knightley, an economist at ING Bank NV. “‘If it wasn’t for the Brexit vote, I’d be much more optimistic. The labor market is incredibly tight, confidence is high, house prices are moving higher as well.”
House price growth rate has peaked, the Frank Knight assessment is for growth to reduce towards 2% by 2019; that may drive wage inflation if Brexit == false, but if == true then IMHO housing supply will improve gradually and prices will soften.

Isn't it exciting!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Well...the market did react too it!!!
Too Much Is Never Enough
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  • | IP XX.XXX.249.85
I would not want Carneys job !!

1/ The great House price reversion is now rooted firmly (Prime London is always 1st up and 1st down and is already off 8% this year)

2/ No more room to lower rates

3/ UK Productivity lower than at any time since the 5 day week in the 1970's

4/ Political maters running amok "All in it together" yeh, right Camo

5/ Buy to Let is now collapsing the deck of cards and gaining downward momentum

Better he quits now and goes abroad to sell "Forward guidance and Escape velocity" to someone else.

He came , He saw, He failed ...Bye !!
Quote
“Fundamentally the U.K. economy is in good shape,” said James Knightley, an economist at ING Bank NV. “‘If it wasn’t for the Brexit vote, I’d be much more optimistic. The labor market is incredibly tight, confidence is high, house prices are moving higher as well.”

UK economy is in a fair state which unfortunately makes it better than much of rest of world.
Two major problems:
1) Serious current account deficit that no one seems to have noticed. That won't last forever.
2) Political problems besides Brexit. Cameron has got himself into a mess from which he is unlikely to recover. It will be either a government purely hanging on to power for next 4 years or a new leader before long.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.144.86
Carney won't raise rates unless Yellen raises rates. And Yellen doesn't want to raise rates in an election year.

So NOBODY raises rates.
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  • | IP XX.XXX.94.18
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